Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.1 284
Results Rating -6.3 264
Pace 69.3 157
Improvement +4.4 35

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 322 C- C- F C- B
Defense C- 201 C+ C D- D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 116 C 58% 185 +1.2 134
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 285 F+ 31% 353 -3.5 337
Three Pointers 45% 94 D+ 32% 278 +0.5 159
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 60 D+ -2.7 276
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 227
Second Chance C- 28.5% 232 C 1.03 177 C- 0.29 215
Turnovers F 22.5% 363
Freethrows C 0.31 183 D- 67% 330 C- 0.21 229
Total Offense D -6.2 322

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 234 C+ 9.9% 120
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 219 C- 6.4% 268
Three Pointers C- 81% 251 B- 0.6% 111
Total C 55% 188 C+ 5.2% 138

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 303 B- 55% 95 -3.6 66
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 184 D+ 41% 292 +0.6 238
Three Pointers 45% 52 C+ 33% 123 +1.6 265
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 119 C+ -1.1 137
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 128
Second Chance C+ 29.3% 138 C 1.04 199 C 0.30 164
Turnovers D- 13.8% 338
Freethrows D+ 0.34 283 D+ 74% 289 D+ 0.25 291
Total Defense C- -1.0 201

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 95 D+ 7.9% 307
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 175 D+ 3.1% 290
Three Pointers C+ 82% 126 B 1.7% 57
Total C+ 54% 144 D 4.1% 303

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 123 17.0 125
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 250 0.20 275
Improvement +1.0 #135 +3.4 #38

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 305 284 259
Results Rating Rank 310 267 238
Conference Record 9 - 11 11 - 9 12 - 8
Conference Finish 8 6 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 10% 12% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 91% 100% 57%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 1%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 78.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 414 - 814 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 55 @West Virginia L 54 - 70 4% -6  9% 0 - 1 C- -3 F+ -9 D- A- F B+ +5 B A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 330 Bucknell L 62 - 73 75% -4  9% 0 - 2 F -25 F -14 F F F F -12 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 66 68% +5  79% 1 - 2 C- -4 D- -7 B F F B- +3 B+ B D-
 Sun, Nov 16 43 @Cincinnati L 55 - 72 3% -0  57% 1 - 3 C -2 F -11 C D+ F A +10 A- A+ D
 Wed, Nov 19 104 @Maryland L 90 - 95 OT 9% -2  27% 1 - 4 C+ +2 B+ +8 A B F D -5 C- B- D-
 Sun, Nov 23 288 @Western Michigan L 60 - 83 40% -8  1% 1 - 5 F -28 F -18 F+ D- F F -10 F+ D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 36 @Ohio St. L 60 - 113 2% -25  0% 1 - 6 F -36 F -12 C- F C- F -21 F F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 202 Howard W 79 - 75 43% +5  94% 2 - 6 C -1 C+ +3 A C D+ D+ -5 A D F
 Wed, Dec 3 286 Sacred Heart L 80 - 87 63% -2  25% 2 - 7 0 - 1 F+ -17 C -0 C A- C- F -18 B F D
 Fri, Dec 5 181 @Marist L 56 - 64 20% -2  50% 2 - 8 0 - 2 D+ -6 F -15 F C F A +9 C+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 315 @Loyola Maryland W 81 - 73 47% +5  87% 3 - 8 C +2 D+ -4 B B- F B +5 D A+ D+
 Fri, Dec 19 221 @Drexel L 67 - 75 26% -7  9% 3 - 9 D -8 D- -7 A- D+ F C -1 F C A
 Mon, Dec 29 249 Iona W 66 - 59 53% +1  53% 4 - 9 1 - 2 C -1 F -16 D- D F A+ +15 A+ C- B
 Fri, Jan 2 160 @Merrimack L 65 - 75 17% -4  8% 4 - 10 1 - 3 D+ -7 D- -7 D- D- F+ C -0 B- C- D+
 Sun, Jan 4 192 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 80 22% -6  9% 4 - 11 1 - 4 D -10 D+ -4 F A+ D+ D -6 F B+ D+
 Fri, Jan 9 235 St. Peter's W 70 - 65 50% +1  55% 5 - 11 2 - 4 C- -2 D -6 F B C- B +4 A- A C-
 Sun, Jan 11 191 Siena L 50 - 67 42% -5  3% 5 - 12 2 - 5 F -22 F -22 F C+ F C- -3 C B F+
 Sat, Jan 17 344 @Canisius W 78 - 68 59% +1  44% 6 - 12 3 - 5 C +1 B- +4 A- C F C- -3 F A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 336 @Niagara W 68 - 58 56% +1  39% 7 - 12 4 - 5 C +1 C- -1 D+ F+ D+ B +4 A+ F B
 Thu, Jan 22 192 Quinnipiac L 62 - 77 42% -12  8% 7 - 13 4 - 6 F -20 F -13 C F F D- -7 D- A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 356 Rider W 71 - 61 84% +0  44% 8 - 13 5 - 6 D+ -8 D+ -3 B C F D+ -4 A+ F F+
 Fri, Jan 30 235 @St. Peter's L 58 - 66 28% -1  39% 8 - 14 5 - 7 D -9 F+ -8 D- C- F C- -2 C C+ D-
 Sun, Feb 1 319 Manhattan W 72 - 65 72% +4  92% 9 - 14 6 - 7 D+ -6 F+ -8 F A+ F B- +2 B+ F F+
 Thu, Feb 5 160 Merrimack L 70 - 87 35% -10  6% 9 - 15 6 - 8 F -20 D- -6 C D+ C- F -14 F A D+
 Sat, Feb 7 249 @Iona W 83 - 76 31% +3  74% 10 - 15 7 - 8 B- +5 A+ +17 A B+ D+ F -11 B- F F
 Fri, Feb 13 356 @Rider W 65 - 55 68% +5  82% 11 - 15 8 - 8 C- -2 F -11 C+ F+ F A +10 A C- F
 Fri, Feb 20 336 Niagara W 76 - 63 77% +7  79% 12 - 15 9 - 8 C- -2 D -6 D+ A F B +4 A C- B
 Sun, Feb 22 344 Canisius W 70 - 62 78%
 Fri, Feb 27 286 @Sacred Heart L 75 - 78 40%
 Sun, Mar 1 264 @Fairfield L 71 - 75 35%
Totals 14 - 16 11 - 9 -7 D -6 D D+ B C- -1 D+ D- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C F+ D+ D+ 41% 28% 45% B C- C- C C- F C D- C- C- B- D+ C+ C+ 34% 20% 45% C+ C+ C+ C C D- D+ D+ D+
1.00 58% 31% 32% -3 +1 0.98 29% 1.0 .29 23% .31 67% .21 1.10 55% 41% 33% -1 0 0.99 29% 1.0 .30 14% .34 74% .23
Nov
4		 West Virginia F+ C- F F F 53% 10% 38% A+ D- C A+ A- F A+ D A+ B+ C+ D+ A B 43% 16% 41% C- B A+ A+ A+ D- F B- F
0.80 52% 0% 20% -15 +2 0.78 26% 1.4 .35 30% .40 68% .27 1.04 58% 43% 28% -3 +1 0.98 17% 0.8 .14 13% .60 66% .39
Nov
7		 Bucknell F A D- F F 40% 7% 52% A F C F F F A+ C- A+ F D- C+ D- F 42% 17% 42% C- F B- A+ A+ F F A+ D
0.95 71% 33% 18% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.6 .21 23% .50 72% .36 1.12 64% 33% 36% +3 +1 1.09 23% 0.3 .08 6% .37 65% .24
Nov
11		 St. Francis (PA) D- A+ B A- B+ 29% 15% 56% D+ B F F+ F F D+ F F B- C C A+ B+ 28% 30% 42% B+ B+ F A+ B D- D- D D-
1.07 79% 43% 41% +12 0 1.27 23% 1.0 .23 23% .34 39% .13 0.96 56% 35% 25% -7 -2 0.84 38% 0.5 .19 16% .31 72% .22
Nov
16		 Cincinnati F F+ F C+ D+ 38% 14% 48% A- C D B- D+ F F+ F F A C+ C- A+ A 37% 19% 44% C- A- C- A+ A+ D F A F
0.75 42% 29% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 1.1 .21 26% .19 30% .06 0.99 58% 40% 26% -5 0 0.92 34% 0.6 .20 14% .48 60% .29
Nov
19		 Maryland B+ A- F A+ A+ 26% 16% 59% C- A A- C- B F C- C- C- D A+ F F C 40% 13% 47% D C- C+ B- B- D- F F+ F
1.15 67% 11% 47% +10 0 1.21 35% 1.0 .35 24% .27 69% .18 1.21 32% 50% 45% -1 +1 1.02 34% 1.0 .34 14% .70 79% .55
Nov
23		 Western Michigan F D+ F D+ F 41% 10% 49% B- F+ F B+ D- F F A+ D- F C- F B- F+ 43% 19% 38% D- F+ A- F D+ F B+ F C+
0.88 57% 0% 32% -6 +2 0.94 21% 1.3 .27 25% .22 82% .18 1.22 56% 64% 32% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.4 .33 9% .23 86% .19
Nov
25		 Ohio St. F A A+ F C- 25% 23% 52% C+ C- F F F C- C+ F D F F F F F 22% 28% 50% B+ F B- F F F+ B+ F+ B-
0.82 69% 58% 19% -5 -1 0.90 19% 0.4 .07 18% .30 56% .17 1.54 77% 75% 48% +25 -2 1.48 33% 1.6 .52 11% .29 84% .25
Nov
29		 Howard C+ B F A+ A 51% 14% 35% B- A D B+ C D+ D A+ C D+ B C A+ A- 33% 28% 40% A+ A A F D F C+ B- B-
1.12 64% 14% 47% +6 +2 1.18 29% 1.3 .36 21% .29 81% .23 1.06 47% 38% 22% -11 -1 0.78 28% 1.5 .43 8% .32 71% .23
Dec
3		 Sacred Heart C B C+ D C- 45% 9% 45% B C C- A+ A- C- D+ F D F B+ F B+ B 18% 20% 61% A- B F F F D F F F
1.19 68% 40% 32% +3 +2 1.13 30% 1.5 .45 15% .24 64% .16 1.29 50% 44% 30% -4 -1 0.91 44% 1.7 .74 16% .50 86% .42
Dec
5		 Marist F F F F F 47% 11% 42% A+ F B D- C F B+ F C- A C B+ C+ C+ 34% 32% 34% B C+ B F D+ A+ C F+ C-
0.78 43% 20% 26% -14 +2 0.78 34% 0.9 .29 29% .42 57% .24 0.89 56% 33% 31% -4 -2 0.91 23% 1.4 .32 27% .25 85% .21
Dec
13		 Loyola Maryland D+ B A+ C B- 46% 15% 39% B B B- C B- F A+ D A+ B B+ B- F D- 32% 11% 58% C D B A+ A+ D+ C- C C
1.08 67% 57% 33% +6 +1 1.17 36% 1.2 .43 25% .43 71% .31 0.98 50% 33% 39% +2 +1 1.07 23% 0.4 .09 16% .27 71% .19
Dec
19		 Drexel D- F B A+ A 24% 22% 54% D+ A- C F+ D+ F A+ C- A C D- A+ F F+ 51% 5% 44% F F A+ F C A F F F
0.93 40% 44% 45% +6 -1 1.12 31% 0.9 .28 32% .41 75% .31 1.05 64% 0% 42% +6 +3 1.21 13% 2.0 .26 25% .43 83% .35
Dec
29		 Iona F D A+ F F 62% 8% 30% A+ D- F A- D F C F D A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 28% 17% 55% B- A+ B+ F C- B A F B+
0.89 55% 50% 19% -8 +3 0.92 23% 1.1 .26 21% .26 60% .15 0.79 31% 40% 25% -15 0 0.72 20% 1.3 .27 20% .17 80% .13
Jan
2		 Merrimack D- D+ A F F 54% 13% 33% A D- C+ F D- F+ A+ D A+ C C+ C- A B 36% 12% 52% C+ B- B+ F C- D+ F C+ F
0.93 52% 50% 13% -12 +2 0.83 43% 0.8 .32 23% .52 68% .35 1.08 53% 40% 27% -7 +1 0.90 19% 1.3 .26 14% .67 78% .52
Jan
4		 Quinnipiac D+ D+ F D F 28% 20% 52% D F B+ A+ A+ D+ F A F D B F F F 34% 30% 36% B+ F F A+ B+ D+ F F F
0.97 53% 9% 32% -9 -1 0.83 39% 1.4 .53 18% .17 80% .14 1.13 50% 57% 41% +7 -1 1.13 41% 0.6 .26 16% .45 78% .35
Jan
9		 St. Peter's D F F D- F 46% 12% 41% B F C- A+ B C- A+ A- A+ B A+ D A- A- 27% 16% 58% C- A- D- A+ A C- F B- F
1.02 42% 20% 29% -12 +2 0.80 33% 1.4 .45 20% .59 81% .48 0.95 33% 43% 27% -12 0 0.78 40% 0.6 .24 18% .51 72% .37
Jan
11		 Siena F F F F F 31% 14% 55% B- F B D C+ F A+ C- A+ C- D- D+ A C+ 33% 24% 42% C- C C- A+ B F+ F B+ D-
0.81 46% 17% 22% -17 0 0.69 37% 0.9 .32 24% .43 70% .30 1.09 67% 45% 26% 0 -1 1.00 31% 0.7 .23 13% .37 70% .26
Jan
17		 Canisius B- A B+ A+ A 32% 28% 40% F+ A- D+ B C F C+ C- C+ C- C+ C F F 25% 20% 55% C+ F A+ A+ A+ F A+ F A
1.16 73% 46% 42% +12 -1 1.23 29% 1.1 .32 22% .33 71% .23 1.01 50% 36% 40% +3 -1 1.05 17% 0.5 .08 15% .12 100% .12
Jan
19		 Niagara C- F A+ B- D- 51% 9% 40% A+ D+ C F F+ D+ A+ F+ A B A+ B- A+ A+ 45% 14% 41% D+ A+ F F F B F B+ D-
1.11 46% 75% 37% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.7 .25 16% .41 71% .29 0.95 25% 33% 22% -23 +1 0.59 42% 1.3 .56 21% .31 67% .21
Jan
22		 Quinnipiac F B+ F C C- 43% 13% 43% B C F F F F A+ C- A D- C A+ F D- 45% 22% 33% D D- A+ C+ A+ F+ D+ A+ B-
0.89 65% 0% 35% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.4 .07 23% .39 71% .28 1.10 56% 17% 50% +2 0 1.07 19% 1.0 .19 13% .31 58% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Rider D+ C+ F+ A+ B- 46% 8% 46% B- B D B+ C F A+ F A+ D+ A+ A B+ A+ 36% 40% 23% B A+ F F F F+ F F F
1.16 61% 33% 44% +8 +2 1.23 30% 1.1 .33 20% .47 61% .29 1.00 29% 26% 27% -17 -3 0.62 41% 1.1 .46 13% .36 79% .28
Jan
30		 St. Peter's F+ A- F F D- 38% 15% 46% C D- B+ F C- F C+ F D C- C A+ D- C 33% 24% 43% C+ C D+ B+ C+ D- D C+ D+
0.94 67% 0% 28% -7 +1 0.90 42% 0.8 .35 26% .42 63% .26 1.07 53% 17% 36% -5 -1 0.90 38% 0.9 .33 15% .36 74% .27
Feb
1		 Manhattan F+ F F F F 40% 21% 38% C F C+ A+ A+ F B- A+ A B- A- F A+ A- 25% 17% 58% C B+ C+ F F F+ A- D- B
1.10 47% 30% 28% -10 0 0.83 39% 1.6 .64 20% .27 93% .25 0.99 46% 56% 23% -9 -1 0.83 26% 1.5 .39 12% .23 85% .19
Feb
5		 Merrimack D- F B- A C- 52% 15% 33% A- C D- B- D+ C- A+ F B F F F F F 30% 10% 60% C+ F A+ C A D+ F+ D- F
0.99 42% 43% 40% -5 +2 0.96 35% 1.1 .38 20% .51 55% .28 1.23 67% 60% 40% +10 +1 1.24 13% 1.0 .13 14% .41 84% .35
Feb
7		 Iona A+ A+ A+ C- A 27% 12% 61% C A B B+ B+ D+ A+ B- A+ F C+ F A- B- 19% 15% 66% B B- F F+ F F F C- F
1.31 91% 60% 32% +10 0 1.22 39% 1.1 .43 17% .57 73% .42 1.20 56% 57% 29% -3 -1 0.96 32% 1.2 .38 6% .40 71% .29
Feb
13		 Rider F A F D+ C 46% 2% 52% B+ C+ D+ F F+ F F F+ F A A B- A+ A 33% 41% 25% A- A A F C- F D+ B C-
1.00 71% 0% 33% +5 +3 1.17 31% 0.8 .23 28% .17 63% .11 0.85 41% 33% 15% -15 -3 0.67 24% 1.2 .29 11% .29 65% .19
Feb
20		 Niagara D C+ F D- D- 62% 12% 26% A+ D+ B- A+ A F C F D- B B F A+ A- 27% 22% 51% A A D B- C- B F F+ F
1.09 61% 17% 31% -2 +3 1.04 37% 1.4 .50 21% .29 63% .18 0.90 50% 50% 22% -9 -1 0.82 26% 0.8 .20 21% .51 79% .40



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 2.0 4th
5th 3.0 5.8 8.8 5th
6th 15.6 33.3 3.9 52.9 6th
7th 2.4 21.5 2.2 26.1 7th
8th 5.5 3.1 8.5 8th
9th 1.4 1.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 9.3 40.1 38.6 11.9 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 11.9% 4.3% 4.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 11.4
11-9 38.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 1.1 37.5
10-10 40.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.6 39.5
9-11 9.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.2
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.9 97.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 15.7 0.6 25.8 73.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6%
Lose Out 5.1%