Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#234
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#144
Pace71.5#102
Improvement+0.7#136

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#274
First Shot-3.7#284
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#173
Layup/Dunks+1.2#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#329
Freethrows+1.4#99
Improvement+0.1#169

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#187
First Shot+1.0#135
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#306
Layups/Dunks-0.8#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#102
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#131
Freethrows-0.6#234
Improvement+0.7#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 15.8% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 82.1% 94.2% 80.9%
.500 or above in Conference 76.3% 84.6% 75.4%
Conference Champion 11.7% 18.7% 11.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.5% 1.5%
First Four1.1% 0.8% 1.2%
First Round10.3% 15.3% 9.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 9.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 32 - 33 - 6
Quad 416 - 719 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 13   @ Maryland L 52-86 3%     0 - 1 -15.0 -10.6 -4.2
  Nov 13, 2024 266   @ Bucknell W 93-89 2OT 45%     1 - 1 +1.4 +5.3 -4.7
  Nov 16, 2024 339   St. Francis (PA) W 66-58 83%     2 - 1 -6.2 -12.2 +6.2
  Nov 20, 2024 67   @ Georgetown L 51-79 9%     2 - 2 -17.0 -15.8 -1.2
  Nov 23, 2024 327   Delaware St. W 76-66 79%     3 - 2 -2.4 +3.5 -5.1
  Nov 30, 2024 255   @ Howard W 79-75 43%     4 - 2 +1.9 -0.1 +1.8
  Dec 06, 2024 231   @ Marist L 50-53 37%     4 - 3 0 - 1 -3.7 -17.2 +13.2
  Dec 08, 2024 297   Fairfield W 101-94 73%     5 - 3 1 - 1 -3.4 +19.2 -22.7
  Dec 14, 2024 322   Loyola Maryland L 69-77 78%     5 - 4 -20.1 -10.8 -9.1
  Dec 18, 2024 336   @ LIU Brooklyn W 80-72 65%     6 - 4 +0.0 +3.9 -4.2
  Dec 21, 2024 104   @ Miami (FL) W 78-74 OT 14%     7 - 4 +11.6 -3.0 +14.2
  Dec 28, 2024 82   @ George Mason L 61-75 9%    
  Jan 05, 2025 320   Niagara W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 10, 2025 279   @ Manhattan L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 12, 2025 295   Sacred Heart W 77-71 72%    
  Jan 16, 2025 303   @ Rider W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 249   Quinnipiac W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 23, 2025 304   @ Siena W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 279   Manhattan W 78-73 69%    
  Jan 31, 2025 195   @ Merrimack L 65-70 31%    
  Feb 02, 2025 206   @ St. Peter's L 63-68 33%    
  Feb 06, 2025 247   Iona W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 14, 2025 320   @ Niagara W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 16, 2025 353   @ Canisius W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 21, 2025 206   St. Peter's W 66-65 54%    
  Feb 23, 2025 303   Rider W 73-66 73%    
  Feb 28, 2025 297   @ Fairfield W 74-73 51%    
  Mar 02, 2025 304   Siena W 71-64 73%    
  Mar 06, 2025 249   @ Quinnipiac L 74-76 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 231   Marist W 68-65 59%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.7 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 11.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.8 5.1 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.8 5.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 5.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 5.7 3.2 0.3 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.4 3.7 0.5 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.6 4.3 0.9 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.7 1.3 0.1 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.9 0.2 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.1 6.7 9.3 12.1 14.0 14.1 12.8 10.2 6.9 3.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 98.8% 0.5    0.5 0.0
17-3 92.8% 1.5    1.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 78.0% 3.0    2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 52.7% 3.7    1.8 1.5 0.4 0.0
14-6 22.4% 2.3    0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 6.4 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 45.0% 45.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.5% 39.7% 39.7% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.6% 33.9% 33.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.1
16-4 3.9% 27.8% 27.8% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 2.8
15-5 6.9% 23.8% 23.8% 14.6 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.1 5.3
14-6 10.2% 17.9% 17.9% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.3 8.4
13-7 12.8% 14.9% 14.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.6 10.9
12-8 14.1% 11.0% 11.0% 15.5 0.0 0.6 0.9 12.6
11-9 14.0% 7.3% 7.3% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 13.0
10-10 12.1% 4.4% 4.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 11.6
9-11 9.3% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.9
8-12 6.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.6
7-13 4.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 4.0
6-14 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.7 3.6 89.1 0.0%