Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.3 #292
Expected Predictive Rating -8.0 #286
Pace 70.8 #139
Improvement +3.2 #36

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #324 C- C- F D- B
Defense #218 C C+ F F B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #131 1.13 #220 +0.3 #164
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #299 0.63 #318 -3.1 #326
Three Pointers 45% #110 0.95 #259 +0.6 #155
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #233 -2.2 #237
Freethrows 15.0 #300 67% #321 10.0 #318
Second Chance 26.9% #284 1.11 #112 0.30 #226
Turnovers 21.3% #361
Total Offense -5.9 #324

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #287 1.12 #132 +2.9 #84
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #130 0.90 #341 -2.1 #324
Three Pointers 44% #109 1.01 #186 -1.4 #237
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #192 -0.6 #194
Freethrows 20.8 #326 76% #323 15.9 #30
Second Chance 30.3% #157 0.99 #112 0.30 #131
Turnovers 13.2% #340
Total Defense -1.4 #218

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #75 -0.9% #95
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.8% #267 2.0% #217
Possession Length 17.0 #155 17.0 #135
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #283 0.20 #283
Improvement -0.7 #234 +3.9 #10

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.7% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 11.7% 19.4% 6.2%
.500 or above in Conference 45.8% 62.1% 34.1%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.0% 3.7%
First Four1.2% 1.3% 1.2%
First Round1.4% 1.9% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Home) - 41.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 412 - 913 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 67 @West Virginia L 54 - 70 5%  -6  0 - 1 -4 -10 F A+ F +5 B A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 7 314 Bucknell L 62 - 73 68%  +1  0 - 2 -23 -10 F F F -14 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 361 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 66 70%  +5  1 - 2 -5 -3 B F F -1 B+ B+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 58 @Cincinnati L 55 - 72 5%  -0  1 - 3 -5 -9 C- D+ F +5 A- A D
 Wed, Nov 19 107 @Maryland L 90 - 95 OT 9%  -2  1 - 4 +2 +12 A+ B+ F -9 D+ C+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 265 @Western Michigan L 60 - 83 34%  -8  1 - 5 -26 -14 D- F F -13 F D F
 Tue, Nov 25 30 @Ohio St. L 60 - 113 2%  -25  1 - 6 -36 -9 C F D+ -25 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 271 Howard W 79 - 75 58%  +5  2 - 6 -5 +4 A+ C F -9 A- F F
 Wed, Dec 3 285 Sacred Heart L 80 - 87 60%  -3  2 - 7 0 - 1 -17 +3 B- B C -20 A- F F
 Fri, Dec 5 140 @Marist L 56 - 64 14%  -2  2 - 8 0 - 2 -4 -11 F D+ F +7 C C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 336 @Loyola Maryland W 81 - 73 53%  +5  3 - 8 -0 -3 C+ C F +3 D- A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 248 @Drexel L 67 - 75 30%  -11  3 - 9 -10 -7 B- C F -3 F C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 214 Iona W 66 - 59 45%  -2  4 - 9 1 - 2 +1 -12 C- F F +13 A+ C- B+
 Fri, Jan 2 237 @Merrimack L 65 - 75 28%  -6  4 - 10 1 - 3 -11 -7 F F F -5 C D D+
 Sun, Jan 4 158 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 80 17%  -9  4 - 11 1 - 4 -8 -2 F C+ F -7 F A D+
 Fri, Jan 9 259 St. Peter's W 70 - 65 55%  -7  5 - 11 2 - 4 -4 -3 F C+ C- -1 C A+ B-
 Sun, Jan 11 190 Siena L 69 - 71 42% 
 Sat, Jan 17 331 @Canisius W 68 - 67 52% 
 Mon, Jan 19 354 @Niagara W 69 - 66 62% 
 Thu, Jan 22 158 Quinnipiac L 73 - 77 35% 
 Sat, Jan 24 348 Rider W 71 - 63 77% 
 Fri, Jan 30 259 @St. Peter's L 65 - 70 33% 
 Sun, Feb 1 311 Manhattan W 78 - 73 67% 
 Thu, Feb 5 237 Merrimack L 67 - 68 49% 
 Sat, Feb 7 214 @Iona L 72 - 79 25% 
 Fri, Feb 13 348 @Rider W 68 - 66 57% 
 Fri, Feb 20 354 Niagara W 72 - 63 80% 
 Sun, Feb 22 331 Canisius W 71 - 65 72% 
 Fri, Feb 27 285 @Sacred Heart L 74 - 77 38% 
 Sun, Mar 1 282 @Fairfield L 72 - 76 37% 
Totals 12 - 18 9 - 11 -7 -6 C- C- F -1 C C+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.7 0.1 3.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 3.2 1.8 0.2 6.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.6 3.3 0.4 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 6.5 5.7 1.1 0.0 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 6.4 7.4 1.6 0.1 16.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.7 7.4 2.1 0.1 14.8 8th
9th 0.2 3.1 6.4 2.5 0.2 12.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 4.8 2.9 0.3 0.0 9.7 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 6.0 10.9 15.5 18.0 17.7 13.2 8.4 4.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 38.2% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.4% 10.5% 10.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 1.6% 10.0% 10.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5
13-7 4.4% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.2
12-8 8.4% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.1 0.4 8.0
11-9 13.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.4 12.8
10-10 17.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 17.3
9-11 18.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 17.8
8-12 15.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 15.4
7-13 10.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.8
6-14 6.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.0
5-15 2.7% 2.7
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.9 98.0 0.0%