Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#260
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#204
Pace69.5#145
Improvement-1.0#237

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#293
First Shot-3.6#286
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#242
Layup/Dunks+0.6#154
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#234
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#314
Freethrows+1.1#107
Improvement+0.6#154

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#211
First Shot+0.9#147
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#330
Layups/Dunks-0.5#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#105
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#153
Freethrows-0.5#218
Improvement-1.6#273
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.8% 7.9% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 88.5% 94.7% 79.1%
.500 or above in Conference 82.3% 90.8% 69.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four2.6% 2.7% 2.6%
First Round5.5% 6.7% 3.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Home) - 60.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 23 - 5
Quad 415 - 818 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 16   @ Maryland L 52-86 2%     0 - 1 -14.8 -11.6 -3.1
  Nov 13, 2024 251   @ Bucknell W 93-89 2OT 39%     1 - 1 +1.2 +4.0 -3.5
  Nov 16, 2024 336   St. Francis (PA) W 66-58 79%     2 - 1 -6.0 -11.1 +5.4
  Nov 20, 2024 85   @ Georgetown L 51-79 9%     2 - 2 -18.5 -14.6 -3.8
  Nov 23, 2024 314   Delaware St. W 76-66 71%     3 - 2 -1.3 +4.1 -4.6
  Nov 30, 2024 310   @ Howard W 79-75 52%     4 - 2 -2.1 -4.4 +2.2
  Dec 06, 2024 211   @ Marist L 50-53 30%     4 - 3 0 - 1 -3.2 -14.6 +11.1
  Dec 08, 2024 326   Fairfield W 101-94 75%     5 - 3 1 - 1 -5.6 +18.4 -24.1
  Dec 14, 2024 325   Loyola Maryland L 69-77 74%     5 - 4 -20.5 -11.8 -8.5
  Dec 18, 2024 327   @ LIU Brooklyn W 80-72 58%     6 - 4 +0.3 +5.4 -5.3
  Dec 21, 2024 169   @ Miami (FL) W 78-74 OT 22%     7 - 4 +6.3 -6.7 +12.6
  Dec 28, 2024 81   @ George Mason L 56-64 8%     7 - 5 +1.8 -5.8 +7.3
  Jan 05, 2025 316   Niagara W 68-62 72%     8 - 5 2 - 1 -5.6 -13.2 +7.4
  Jan 10, 2025 271   @ Manhattan W 75-66 43%     9 - 5 3 - 1 +5.3 +2.6 +3.2
  Jan 12, 2025 288   Sacred Heart W 73-71 64%     10 - 5 4 - 1 -7.4 -4.0 -3.4
  Jan 16, 2025 303   @ Rider L 60-66 50%     10 - 6 4 - 2 -11.5 -18.9 +7.6
  Jan 18, 2025 187   Quinnipiac L 57-91 43%     10 - 7 4 - 3 -37.8 -13.8 -24.9
  Jan 23, 2025 246   @ Siena L 68-82 38%     10 - 8 4 - 4 -16.6 +0.6 -18.4
  Jan 25, 2025 271   Manhattan L 64-74 62%     10 - 9 4 - 5 -18.7 -10.4 -9.1
  Jan 31, 2025 198   @ Merrimack W 66-58 27%     11 - 9 5 - 5 +8.8 +7.3 +2.7
  Feb 02, 2025 272   @ St. Peter's W 79-64 43%     12 - 9 6 - 5 +11.3 +19.0 -5.7
  Feb 06, 2025 256   Iona W 71-69 60%    
  Feb 14, 2025 316   @ Niagara W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 16, 2025 352   @ Canisius W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 21, 2025 272   St. Peter's W 64-61 64%    
  Feb 23, 2025 303   Rider W 71-66 69%    
  Feb 28, 2025 326   @ Fairfield W 73-71 56%    
  Mar 02, 2025 246   Siena W 70-68 59%    
  Mar 06, 2025 187   @ Quinnipiac L 69-76 25%    
  Mar 08, 2025 211   Marist L 64-65 50%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1st
2nd 0.5 1.2 0.4 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 4.4 2.2 0.1 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 9.1 15.4 7.4 1.1 0.0 34.3 4th
5th 0.4 6.1 10.9 3.4 0.3 21.0 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 8.2 3.8 0.2 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 5.1 3.3 0.3 9.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 3.1 0.3 5.3 8th
9th 0.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.8 11.4 19.2 24.2 20.8 12.6 4.6 0.8 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 29.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.8% 18.5% 18.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
14-6 4.6% 16.2% 16.2% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 3.9
13-7 12.6% 11.1% 11.1% 15.8 0.3 1.1 11.2
12-8 20.8% 9.0% 9.0% 15.8 0.3 1.6 18.9
11-9 24.2% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.1 1.5 22.7
10-10 19.2% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.0 0.8 18.5
9-11 11.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 11.1
8-12 4.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 4.8
7-13 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.5 93.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%