Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#259
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#202
Pace68.8#154
Improvement+0.4#178

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#285
First Shot-3.5#279
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#241
Layup/Dunks+0.8#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#238
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#316
Freethrows+1.1#107
Improvement+1.3#121

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#206
First Shot+1.1#142
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#328
Layups/Dunks-0.3#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#106
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#150
Freethrows-0.4#218
Improvement-0.9#243
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 14.6% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 1.8% 0.0%
First Round6.9% 13.5% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 24 - 5
Quad 415 - 819 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 11   @ Maryland L 52-86 2%     0 - 1 -13.0 -9.0 -3.8
  Nov 13, 2024 224   @ Bucknell W 93-89 2OT 32%     1 - 1 +3.3 +3.7 -1.1
  Nov 16, 2024 315   St. Francis (PA) W 66-58 74%     2 - 1 -4.0 -10.3 +6.5
  Nov 20, 2024 83   @ Georgetown L 51-79 9%     2 - 2 -18.7 -15.7 -2.9
  Nov 23, 2024 310   Delaware St. W 76-66 73%     3 - 2 -1.7 +2.6 -3.6
  Nov 30, 2024 316   @ Howard W 79-75 55%     4 - 2 -2.5 -2.5 -0.3
  Dec 06, 2024 266   @ Marist L 50-53 41%     4 - 3 0 - 1 -6.1 -16.3 +9.9
  Dec 08, 2024 327   Fairfield W 101-94 76%     5 - 3 1 - 1 -5.9 +20.8 -26.8
  Dec 14, 2024 309   Loyola Maryland L 69-77 73%     5 - 4 -19.6 -11.3 -8.1
  Dec 18, 2024 300   @ LIU Brooklyn W 80-72 50%     6 - 4 +2.7 +7.4 -4.9
  Dec 21, 2024 173   @ Miami (FL) W 78-74 OT 24%     7 - 4 +6.0 -6.5 +12.1
  Dec 28, 2024 89   @ George Mason L 56-64 10%     7 - 5 +0.5 -6.1 +6.4
  Jan 05, 2025 311   Niagara W 68-62 73%     8 - 5 2 - 1 -5.8 -13.6 +7.6
  Jan 10, 2025 235   @ Manhattan W 75-66 35%     9 - 5 3 - 1 +7.7 +2.9 +5.4
  Jan 12, 2025 261   Sacred Heart W 73-71 61%     10 - 5 4 - 1 -6.2 -3.3 -2.8
  Jan 16, 2025 303   @ Rider L 60-66 50%     10 - 6 4 - 2 -11.5 -20.0 +8.9
  Jan 18, 2025 199   Quinnipiac L 57-91 48%     10 - 7 4 - 3 -38.9 -14.4 -25.4
  Jan 23, 2025 255   @ Siena L 68-82 38%     10 - 8 4 - 4 -16.3 +0.2 -17.7
  Jan 25, 2025 235   Manhattan L 64-74 55%     10 - 9 4 - 5 -16.8 -10.4 -7.2
  Jan 31, 2025 191   @ Merrimack W 66-58 27%     11 - 9 5 - 5 +9.1 +7.7 +2.6
  Feb 02, 2025 287   @ St. Peter's W 79-64 47%     12 - 9 6 - 5 +10.5 +18.6 -6.2
  Feb 06, 2025 256   Iona L 67-70 OT 60%     12 - 10 6 - 6 -10.9 -10.7 +0.0
  Feb 14, 2025 311   @ Niagara W 84-83 54%     13 - 10 7 - 6 -5.3 +7.1 -12.3
  Feb 16, 2025 356   @ Canisius W 73-66 73%     14 - 10 8 - 6 -4.9 -5.0 +0.4
  Feb 21, 2025 287   St. Peter's W 69-58 67%     15 - 10 9 - 6 +1.0 +6.0 -3.3
  Feb 23, 2025 303   Rider W 79-72 71%     16 - 10 10 - 6 -4.0 -3.3 -0.8
  Feb 28, 2025 327   @ Fairfield L 62-69 58%     16 - 11 10 - 7 -14.4 -8.1 -6.9
  Mar 02, 2025 255   Siena W 85-79 59%     17 - 11 11 - 7 -1.8 +7.7 -9.5
  Mar 06, 2025 199   @ Quinnipiac L 70-79 28%     17 - 12 11 - 8 -8.4 -4.2 -3.6
  Mar 08, 2025 266   Marist W 62-52 62%     18 - 12 12 - 8 +1.4 -2.9 +5.7
  Mar 13, 2025 266   Marist W 65-64 52%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 100.0% 7.4% 7.4% 15.8 1.1 6.3 92.6
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 15.8 1.1 6.3 92.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.4% 100.0% 15.8 15.1 84.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 32.8%
Lose Out 49.3%