Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.4 #289
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 #280
Pace 68.8 #177
Improvement +3.2 #52

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #334 D+ C- F C- B-
Defense #201 C C D- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #142 1.13 #210 +0.2 #166
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #301 0.61 #347 -3.3 #330
Three Pointers 45% #89 0.93 #288 +0.3 #169
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #261 -2.8 #261
Freethrows 0.29 #206 68% #319 0.20 #247
Second Chance 29.0% #233 1.01 #208 0.29 #229
Turnovers 22.3% #364
Total Offense -6.5 #334

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #268 1.10 #100 +2.8 #90
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #197 0.81 #278 -0.3 #208
Three Pointers 44% #78 1.01 #168 -1.6 #258
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #148 +0.9 #148
Freethrows 0.33 #265 74% #271 0.24 #278
Second Chance 29.6% #133 1.03 #189 0.30 #157
Turnovers 13.6% #334
Total Defense -0.9 #201

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #68 -0.2% #144
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.0% #298 -1.5% #152
Possession Length 17.1 #153 16.9 #116
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #243 0.20 #283
Improvement -0.7 #221 +4.0 #24

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.4% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 5.7% 10.6% 2.1%
.500 or above in Conference 49.9% 71.5% 34.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.2% 1.4% 1.1%
First Round1.1% 1.5% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Merrimack (Home) - 42.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 413 - 913 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 57 @West Virginia L 54 - 70 4% -6  0 - 1 -4 -8 F+ B+ F +4 B A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 315 Bucknell L 62 - 73 69% -4  0 - 2 -23 -12 F F F -13 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 357 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 66 66% +5  1 - 2 -3 -3 B F F -0 B B D
 Sun, Nov 16 52 @Cincinnati L 55 - 72 4% -0  1 - 3 -4 -8 C- C- F +5 B+ A- D+
 Wed, Nov 19 107 @Maryland L 90 - 95 OT 10% -2  1 - 4 +2 +11 A B F -9 D+ B- D-
 Sun, Nov 23 273 @Western Michigan L 60 - 83 35% -8  1 - 5 -26 -15 D- D- F -12 D D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 36 @Ohio St. L 60 - 113 2% -25  1 - 6 -36 -10 C F C- -24 F F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 253 Howard W 79 - 75 54% +5  2 - 6 -4 +5 A- C D -9 B+ D F
 Wed, Dec 3 276 Sacred Heart L 80 - 87 58% -2  2 - 7 0 - 1 -16 +3 C B+ C -20 B F D-
 Fri, Dec 5 161 @Marist L 56 - 64 17% -2  2 - 8 0 - 2 -5 -11 F+ C F +6 C+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 318 @Loyola Maryland W 81 - 73 47% +5  3 - 8 +1 -1 B- C+ F +2 D A+ D
 Fri, Dec 19 206 @Drexel L 67 - 75 23% -7  3 - 9 -8 -4 A- D+ F -3 F C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 231 Iona W 66 - 59 49% +1  4 - 9 1 - 2 -0 -12 D D F +12 A+ C- B-
 Fri, Jan 2 201 @Merrimack L 65 - 75 23% -4  4 - 10 1 - 3 -10 -6 F+ D- F+ -4 C+ C- D+
 Sun, Jan 4 186 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 80 21% -6  4 - 11 1 - 4 -10 -3 F A+ D -7 F+ B+ C
 Fri, Jan 9 235 St. Peter's W 70 - 65 49% +1  5 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -3 F B+ C- +1 B+ A- C
 Sun, Jan 11 174 Siena L 50 - 67 38% -5  5 - 12 2 - 5 -21 -19 F C F -5 C B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 345 @Canisius W 78 - 68 55% +1  6 - 12 3 - 5 +1 +6 B+ C F -4 F A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 349 @Niagara W 68 - 58 56% +1  7 - 12 4 - 5 +1 +1 D+ F+ C- +1 A+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 22 186 Quinnipiac L 62 - 77 40% -12  7 - 13 4 - 6 -20 -12 C- F F -8 D A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 352 Rider W 71 - 61 79% +0  8 - 13 5 - 6 -6 +1 B C F -5 A+ F F
 Fri, Jan 30 235 @St. Peter's L 58 - 66 27% -1  8 - 14 5 - 7 -9 -5 D- C F -5 C C+ D-
 Sun, Feb 1 327 Manhattan W 72 - 65 72% +4  9 - 14 6 - 7 -6 -5 F A+ F+ -1 B+ F D-
 Thu, Feb 5 201 Merrimack L 65 - 67 42%
 Sat, Feb 7 231 @Iona L 69 - 75 27%
 Fri, Feb 13 352 @Rider W 70 - 68 59%
 Fri, Feb 20 349 Niagara W 70 - 62 77%
 Sun, Feb 22 345 Canisius W 70 - 63 76%
 Fri, Feb 27 276 @Sacred Heart L 73 - 77 36%
 Sun, Mar 1 272 @Fairfield L 70 - 74 35%
Totals 13 - 17 10 - 10 -7 -6 D+ C- F -1 C C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.4 1.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 2.7 0.2 6.1 5th
6th 0.7 6.9 9.4 1.5 0.0 18.5 6th
7th 0.2 6.7 14.0 3.2 0.1 24.3 7th
8th 0.2 4.6 15.1 6.1 0.2 26.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 9.0 5.1 0.2 16.3 9th
10th 0.3 2.6 2.4 0.3 5.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.6 5.2 16.4 27.9 27.4 15.8 5.7 1.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.0% 6.2% 6.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-8 5.7% 4.8% 4.8% 15.7 0.1 0.2 5.4
11-9 15.8% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 15.5
10-10 27.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.6 26.8
9-11 27.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 27.6
8-12 16.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 16.2
7-13 5.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.2
6-14 0.6% 0.6
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.9 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.5%