Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#171
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#176
Pace63.2#312
Improvement-6.1#351

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#171
First Shot+1.3#133
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#244
Layup/Dunks-0.5#203
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#243
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#162
Freethrows+2.4#54
Improvement-2.8#319

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#197
First Shot-0.5#198
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#212
Layups/Dunks-2.9#287
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#9
Freethrows-0.7#239
Improvement-3.4#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.4% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.6 14.5
.500 or above 24.4% 42.2% 15.8%
.500 or above in Conference 29.0% 49.4% 19.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round2.2% 3.4% 1.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Home) - 32.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 6
Quad 35 - 88 - 14
Quad 46 - 415 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 47   @ Pittsburgh L 68-83 11%     0 - 1 -1.7 +0.2 -2.0
  Nov 16, 2024 120   @ Middle Tennessee W 88-67 31%     1 - 1 +25.8 +21.1 +5.4
  Nov 20, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-61 95%     2 - 1 -1.2 +3.5 -3.3
  Nov 22, 2024 132   Utah Valley L 75-77 52%     2 - 2 -2.9 +7.1 -10.1
  Nov 26, 2024 200   Texas Arlington W 79-66 56%     3 - 2 +11.2 +1.5 +9.4
  Dec 03, 2024 230   Evansville W 63-61 72%     4 - 2 1 - 0 -4.4 -4.9 +0.6
  Dec 08, 2024 265   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-53 78%     5 - 2 +11.7 +7.4 +7.1
  Dec 14, 2024 115   @ Western Kentucky L 76-81 OT 29%     5 - 3 +0.4 -3.5 +4.7
  Dec 18, 2024 210   @ Indiana St. L 74-84 49%     5 - 4 1 - 1 -10.1 -1.0 -9.0
  Dec 22, 2024 48   Nebraska L 49-66 16%     5 - 5 -6.4 -14.2 +6.7
  Dec 23, 2024 221   Charlotte L 90-94 2OT 62%     5 - 6 -7.3 +3.3 -10.0
  Dec 25, 2024 128   Loyola Chicago W 71-68 42%     6 - 6 +4.9 +5.6 -0.6
  Jan 02, 2025 135   Illinois St. L 68-74 53%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -7.0 -0.4 -7.3
  Jan 05, 2025 73   @ Drake W 66-59 17%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +17.1 +11.0 +7.4
  Jan 08, 2025 108   @ Northern Iowa W 71-68 26%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +9.5 +10.7 -0.7
  Jan 11, 2025 226   Valparaiso W 58-47 71%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +5.0 -12.7 +19.0
  Jan 15, 2025 123   @ Illinois-Chicago L 93-97 2OT 32%     9 - 8 4 - 3 +0.6 +1.4 +0.0
  Jan 18, 2025 94   Bradley L 61-74 37%     9 - 9 4 - 4 -9.7 -5.3 -5.3
  Jan 22, 2025 183   @ Southern Illinois W 74-64 44%     10 - 9 5 - 4 +11.3 +7.9 +4.2
  Jan 25, 2025 140   Belmont L 77-95 54%     10 - 10 5 - 5 -19.2 +4.0 -24.1
  Jan 29, 2025 230   @ Evansville L 74-78 55%     10 - 11 5 - 6 -5.5 +12.3 -18.2
  Feb 01, 2025 223   @ Missouri St. L 56-77 53%     10 - 12 5 - 7 -21.9 -15.1 -7.3
  Feb 04, 2025 73   Drake L 60-65 32%    
  Feb 08, 2025 226   @ Valparaiso W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 11, 2025 123   Illinois-Chicago W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 16, 2025 108   Northern Iowa L 68-70 46%    
  Feb 19, 2025 183   Southern Illinois W 72-69 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 94   @ Bradley L 64-73 19%    
  Feb 25, 2025 210   Indiana St. W 79-74 69%    
  Mar 02, 2025 140   @ Belmont L 75-79 34%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.1 1.0 0.0 4.8 4th
5th 0.5 4.8 3.0 0.1 8.4 5th
6th 0.2 5.2 8.8 1.4 15.5 6th
7th 2.8 12.0 3.8 0.1 18.6 7th
8th 0.8 10.9 7.1 0.4 19.1 8th
9th 0.3 5.8 8.9 1.0 15.9 9th
10th 0.1 3.1 6.9 1.6 0.0 11.9 10th
11th 0.6 2.3 0.9 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.8 5.8 14.4 24.4 25.7 18.3 8.2 2.1 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 3.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.3% 16.7% 16.7% 12.0 0.1 0.3
12-8 2.1% 8.9% 8.9% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
11-9 8.2% 4.4% 4.4% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.9
10-10 18.3% 3.7% 3.7% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 17.6
9-11 25.7% 1.4% 1.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 25.3
8-12 24.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.4 0.2 0.2 24.0
7-13 14.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 14.3
6-14 5.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.7
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 14.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%