Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +6.1 #91
Expected Predictive Rating +10.1 #60
Pace 77.1 #29
Improvement +1.9 #85

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #63 B B- B B C
Defense #141 B C D+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #182 1.20 #126 +0.7 #150
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #207 0.86 #54 +0.4 #161
Three Pointers 43% #148 1.10 #77 +2.9 #96
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #80 +4.0 #79
Freethrows 18.6 #120 79% #28 14.6 #68
Second Chance 32.4% #132 1.12 #94 0.36 #94
Turnovers 15.0% #80
Total Offense +5.6 #63

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #18 1.02 #35 -1.3 #227
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #32 0.75 #177 -2.4 #335
Three Pointers 27% #365 0.97 #136 +7.8 #2
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #60 +4.1 #59
Freethrows 15.5 #92 77% #340 11.9 #214
Second Chance 32.6% #256 1.01 #148 0.33 #199
Turnovers 15.5% #253
Total Defense +0.5 #141

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #161 -0.4% #128
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.3% #73 -7.7% #60
Possession Length 16.0 #67 16.7 #85
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #146 0.17 #173
Improvement +1.5 #91 +0.4 #156

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.3% 20.3% 14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.7 11.6 11.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.7% 97.5%
Conference Champion 44.4% 47.6% 26.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round19.1% 20.0% 13.9%
Second Round3.2% 3.4% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 85.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 24 - 44 - 6
Quad 38 - 312 - 9
Quad 412 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 257 Nebraska Omaha W 85 - 77 86%  +5  1 - 0 +2 -2 F C F +4 C B- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 365 Mississippi Valley W 108 - 60 99%  +21  2 - 0 +21 +15 A- F A+ +2 B+ B- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 28 @SMU L 91 - 102 15%  -9  2 - 1 +6 +11 A+ A+ B- -3 A- D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 15 215 Nicholls St. W 99 - 79 87%  +11  3 - 1 +14 +16 A+ A+ F -4 A F A
 Tue, Nov 18 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 68 93%  +16  4 - 1 +10 +16 C A+ A+ -5 A F C-
 Sun, Nov 23 123 Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 65%  -3  4 - 2 -1 +9 A C A+ -9 A- F D-
 Mon, Nov 24 87 McNeese St. L 60 - 73 48%  -16  4 - 3 -6 -13 F C- F +8 A A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 25 70 George Washington W 96 - 95 42%  +1  5 - 3 +9 +21 A+ A+ A -11 C+ B+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 308 Morehead St. W 84 - 52 94%  +10  6 - 3 +20 +9 D+ A C- +13 A A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 280 Bellarmine W 81 - 68 92%  +13  7 - 3 +3 +5 A+ F F -1 C A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 64 Akron W 115 - 100 39%  +9  8 - 3 +24 +26 A+ B+ F -4 C A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 169 Drake W 81 - 72 83%  +5  9 - 3 1 - 0 +5 +9 F A+ A+ -4 A+ F B+
 Sun, Dec 21 188 @Valparaiso W 85 - 79 69%  -2  10 - 3 2 - 0 +7 +12 A+ F B+ -5 D D- C
 Mon, Dec 29 130 Southern Illinois W 84 - 81 76%  +7  11 - 3 3 - 0 +2 +8 A+ F D+ -6 A F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 184 @Illinois-Chicago W 81 - 77 68%  -1  12 - 3 4 - 0 +5 +6 F A+ C -1 B- C- B-
 Sun, Jan 4 116 Bradley W 86 - 66 70%  +14  13 - 3 5 - 0 +21 +16 A+ C+ A +5 A+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 7 263 @Evansville W 79 - 69 80%  +4  14 - 3 6 - 0 +7 +7 C- B- A+ +0 D- A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 188 Valparaiso W 83 - 72 85% 
 Sat, Jan 17 191 Indiana St. W 87 - 76 85% 
 Wed, Jan 21 169 @Drake W 80 - 76 64% 
 Sat, Jan 24 96 @Northern Iowa L 69 - 71 42% 
 Wed, Jan 28 85 Illinois St. W 80 - 78 58% 
 Sat, Jan 31 73 @Belmont L 83 - 88 33% 
 Tue, Feb 3 184 Illinois-Chicago W 85 - 74 84% 
 Fri, Feb 6 130 @Southern Illinois W 81 - 80 55% 
 Mon, Feb 9 96 Northern Iowa W 72 - 68 63% 
 Thu, Feb 12 191 @Indiana St. W 84 - 79 68% 
 Sun, Feb 15 73 Belmont W 86 - 85 54% 
 Wed, Feb 18 85 @Illinois St. L 77 - 81 36% 
 Sat, Feb 21 263 Evansville W 85 - 70 92% 
 Sun, Mar 1 116 @Bradley L 79 - 80 48% 
Totals 23 - 8 15 - 5 +6 +6 B B- B +0 B C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.5 9.7 13.5 10.8 5.7 1.8 0.3 44.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.7 9.0 9.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 6.4 5.7 1.1 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.0 3.8 0.6 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.9 0.3 4.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.9 8.1 13.3 17.9 19.8 16.0 11.1 5.7 1.8 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8
18-2 99.9% 5.7    5.6 0.1
17-3 97.4% 10.8    9.5 1.3 0.0
16-4 84.0% 13.5    8.8 4.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 49.0% 9.7    3.6 4.5 1.5 0.1
14-6 13.9% 2.5    0.4 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 44.4% 44.4 29.9 11.2 2.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 66.7% 40.0% 26.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 44.4%
19-1 1.8% 41.8% 34.4% 7.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.0 11.3%
18-2 5.7% 33.4% 32.2% 1.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.8 1.8%
17-3 11.1% 27.9% 27.5% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.3 0.0 8.0 0.6%
16-4 16.0% 24.3% 24.2% 0.1% 11.6 1.5 2.2 0.1 12.1 0.1%
15-5 19.8% 19.7% 19.6% 0.1% 11.8 1.1 2.6 0.2 15.9 0.1%
14-6 17.9% 16.7% 16.7% 12.0 0.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 14.9
13-7 13.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.1 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 11.7
12-8 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 12.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 7.5
11-9 3.9% 6.7% 6.7% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.7
10-10 1.5% 3.8% 3.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
9-11 0.5% 3.1% 3.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.3% 19.0% 0.4% 11.7 80.7 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 8.4 4.2 8.3 16.7 16.7 29.2 20.8 4.2