New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.2 47
Results Rating +12.3 48
Pace 73.9 47
Improvement +1.5 125

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 62 B+ C B C+ B+
Defense B 44 B B B B- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 52 C 59% 153 +3.2 73
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 323 C+ 40% 95 -2.8 311
Three Pointers 44% 119 A- 39% 17 +4.9 36
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.4 27 B +3.7 72
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.13 46
Second Chance C 31.0% 166 C- 1.01 206 C 0.31 170
Turnovers B 14.8% 65
Freethrows C 0.30 189 B- 75% 101 C+ 0.23 145
Total Offense B +5.7 62

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 280 B 8.8% 59
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 308 D+ 6.6% 280
Three Pointers B- 88% 96 C- 1.0% 222
Total C 56% 171 C+ 5.1% 119

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% 359 C 57% 169 -6.5 17
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 136 D 42% 305 +1.2 288
Three Pointers 51% 7 A- 29% 17 +1.3 243
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.9 48 B -3.1 66
1st FG Attempt B 0.94 53
Second Chance B 26.8% 57 C+ 0.99 121 B 0.27 63
Turnovers B 19.3% 47
Freethrows B- 0.28 94 C- 73% 212 B- 0.20 104
Total Defense B +5.5 44

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 109 B- 13.6% 78
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 133 D+ 2.9% 300
Three Pointers B- 80% 83 D+ 0.5% 260
Total C+ 53% 125 D+ 4.6% 252

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.9 43 17.8 269
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 98 0.15 94
Improvement +2.4 #83 -1.0 #245

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 57 47 40
Results Rating Rank 58 48 37
Conference Record 13 - 7 14 - 6 16 - 4
Conference Finish 4 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None 11 9
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Four 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 1% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60% 68% 52%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52% 60% 43%
Average Seed 10.2 10.0 10.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 18% 26% 9%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four22% 21% 23%
First Round49% 57% 39%
Second Round17% 20% 13%
Sweet Sixteen3% 3% 2%
Elite Eight1% 1% 1%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 52.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 5
Quad 27 - 29 - 7
Quad 36 - 115 - 9
Quad 49 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 308 East Texas A&M W 76 - 54 97% +16  98% 1 - 0 B +10 F+ -10 F+ B D A+ +18 A B A+
 Sat, Nov 8 180 Texas Arlington W 74 - 56 92% +12  90% 2 - 0 B+ +14 C- -2 B F C A+ +15 A C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 283 UC Riverside W 82 - 68 96% +5  74% 3 - 0 C+ +4 B +7 B C A+ C- -2 D- B+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 163 @New Mexico St. L 68 - 76 79% -2  15% 3 - 1 D+ -5 D+ -3 D+ C F C- -3 B+ F+ D
 Thu, Nov 20 13 Nebraska L 72 - 84 23% -11  0% 3 - 2 B- +7 C- -2 B C- C+ A +10 C A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 74 Mississippi St. W 80 - 78 64% +2  67% 4 - 2 B +10 B +6 B B C B +4 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 312 Alabama St. W 93 - 87 98% -6  14% 5 - 2 D+ -6 A- +10 A+ D B+ F -16 F F A
 Sat, Dec 6 42 Santa Clara W 98 - 71 56% +11  85% 6 - 2 A+ +37 A+ +23 A+ A+ A A+ +13 A+ D+ A
 Wed, Dec 10 46 @Virginia Commonwealth W 81 - 78 38% -1  35% 7 - 2 A- +17 A +12 A+ F D- B+ +6 A+ C B-
 Sun, Dec 14 251 Florida Gulf Coast W 75 - 59 95% +5  61% 8 - 2 B +8 D+ -3 F C D- A+ +12 A- A- C
 Sat, Dec 20 218 San Jose St. W 88 - 65 94% +10  93% 9 - 2 1 - 0 A- +17 A- +10 A C A- A- +7 B A- A-
 Tue, Dec 30 64 @Boise St. L 53 - 62 49% +0  52% 9 - 3 1 - 1 C+ +3 F -18 F D A A+ +21 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 100 Wyoming W 78 - 58 81% +6  57% 10 - 3 2 - 1 A +22 A +14 B A+ B A+ +11 A C- A
 Tue, Jan 6 91 @Colorado St. W 80 - 70 58% +7  92% 11 - 3 3 - 1 A +19 A- +11 A A+ C A +9 A D- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 351 @Air Force W 91 - 49 97% +21  90% 12 - 3 4 - 1 A+ +31 A +14 B D+ B- A+ +18 C A A+
 Tue, Jan 13 62 Grand Canyon W 87 - 64 70% +9  94% 13 - 3 5 - 1 A+ +29 A +14 A+ D B+ A+ +14 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 45 @San Diego St. L 79 - 83 38% -3  14% 13 - 4 5 - 2 B +10 B +6 B B- C B +5 C- A B+
 Wed, Jan 21 132 Fresno St. W 83 - 74 87% +11  93% 14 - 4 6 - 2 B- +8 C- -1 D- A A+ A- +8 B C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 78 Nevada W 80 - 73 74% +0  49% 15 - 4 7 - 2 B+ +12 B- +5 C- B A B+ +6 C A+ B+
 Tue, Jan 27 118 @UNLV W 89 - 61 70% +18  97% 16 - 4 8 - 2 A+ +34 B+ +8 A F A A+ +24 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 218 @San Jose St. W 90 - 80 86% +7  97% 17 - 4 9 - 2 B +10 A+ +21 A B- A+ F -11 D+ F+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 28 Utah St. L 66 - 86 47% -8  3% 17 - 5 9 - 3 D+ -8 D- -8 C F C+ C+ +0 C+ B B-
 Sat, Feb 7 64 Boise St. L 90 - 91 71% -1  37% 17 - 6 9 - 4 C+ +5 A+ +20 A+ D+ A+ F -15 F B- C+
 Wed, Feb 11 62 @Grand Canyon W 70 - 64 48% +8  86% 18 - 6 10 - 4 A- +18 B- +5 A+ F+ D A+ +12 A+ C C+
 Tue, Feb 17 351 Air Force W 98 - 61 99% +18  97% 19 - 6 11 - 4 A +20 A+ +16 A+ B C- B +4 B+ A F
 Sat, Feb 21 132 @Fresno St. W 80 - 78 73% -8  17% 20 - 6 12 - 4 B- +7 A +12 A D A+ D -5 F+ C D+
 Tue, Feb 24 78 @Nevada W 76 - 75 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 45 San Diego St. W 77 - 74 61%
 Wed, Mar 4 91 Colorado St. W 79 - 71 78%
 Sat, Mar 7 28 @Utah St. L 75 - 82 26%
Totals 22 - 8 14 - 6 +11 B +6 C+ B B+ B +5 A- B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C C+ A- B 43% 24% 44% B+ B+ C C- C B C B- C+ B C D A- B 28% 22% 51% B B B C+ B B B- C- B-
1.17 59% 40% 39% +4 +1 1.13 31% 1.0 .31 15% .30 75% .23 1.01 57% 42% 29% -3 -1 0.94 27% 1.0 .27 19% .28 73% .22
Nov
5		 East Texas A&M F+ F F A F 51% 16% 33% B- F+ C- A+ B D B+ F C A+ F C A+ A 25% 20% 55% B+ A D+ A+ B A+ B B- B
0.99 46% 13% 41% -7 +2 0.92 30% 1.4 .43 19% .37 61% .23 0.70 71% 36% 17% -11 -1 0.78 26% 0.6 .17 27% .20 64% .12
Nov
8		 Texas Arlington C- B A+ F+ C+ 45% 8% 47% A+ B C- F F C A A+ A+ A+ C- F A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% C A D- A- C+ A+ F C F
1.03 64% 50% 26% -2 +2 1.02 27% 0.7 .18 17% .45 81% .37 0.78 57% 50% 14% -14 0 0.76 40% 0.8 .31 32% .49 71% .35
Nov
11		 UC Riverside B A+ C F B- 51% 18% 32% B- B D B+ C A+ F+ D- F+ C- A+ A F F 22% 24% 54% A D- A+ F+ B+ B- B+ F C-
1.23 72% 40% 28% +5 +1 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 8% .28 65% .18 1.02 30% 27% 52% +6 -2 1.11 16% 1.0 .16 21% .25 92% .23
Nov
15		 New Mexico St. D+ C+ F+ F D 31% 15% 54% B- D+ D+ A- C F D A- C- C- F B A+ B 17% 25% 58% B B+ C+ F F+ D F D F
1.03 60% 29% 27% -7 0 0.90 28% 1.3 .38 20% .32 82% .27 1.16 88% 33% 25% -4 -2 0.90 31% 1.3 .41 12% .45 77% .35
Nov
20		 Nebraska C- C A+ D- B- 20% 14% 66% A- B D- A- C- C+ D- D- D- A D- C+ D C 26% 11% 63% B C A+ B A+ A+ F A F
0.89 58% 63% 28% -2 0 0.97 20% 1.0 .20 20% .17 64% .11 1.04 71% 33% 38% +7 0 1.17 15% 1.0 .15 22% .40 68% .27
Nov
21		 Mississippi St. B D F B C+ 38% 13% 48% A+ B B+ C B C A+ B- A+ B D D+ C+ C 25% 27% 47% A- C+ A+ C+ A+ F A A+ A+
1.10 50% 29% 36% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.0 .32 14% .40 76% .30 1.08 67% 44% 32% +2 -2 1.03 20% 1.0 .20 10% .20 54% .11
Nov
26		 Alabama St. A- C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 7% 52% B+ A+ C F D B+ A+ D A+ F D+ C F F 24% 27% 49% A- F F F F A F+ F F
1.28 63% 67% 46% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.9 .30 15% .62 71% .44 1.20 58% 36% 48% +10 -2 1.18 37% 1.6 .59 23% .36 80% .29
Dec
6		 Santa Clara A+ A+ F A- A+ 48% 10% 42% B+ A+ B A+ A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ A F A+ A+ 22% 9% 69% C+ A+ D C D+ A B- C- B-
1.37 79% 20% 38% +11 +2 1.28 35% 1.8 .62 17% .40 88% .35 0.99 50% 80% 21% -11 0 0.80 41% 1.1 .45 21% .21 75% .16
Dec
10		 Virginia Commonwealth A C- A+ A+ A+ 57% 9% 35% A+ A+ C+ F F D- A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ F A- A+ 39% 12% 49% C A+ F A- C B- F F F
1.16 54% 75% 50% +9 +3 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 20% .39 86% .34 1.12 37% 67% 29% -8 +1 0.88 41% 0.9 .39 17% .48 82% .40
Dec
14		 Florida Gulf Coast D+ F A+ F F 35% 4% 61% B+ F A+ F C D- A+ A+ A+ A+ A- C- B+ A- 12% 24% 63% A- A- A- A- A- C C+ A B
1.10 47% 100% 23% -11 +2 0.84 44% 0.8 .33 19% .49 89% .43 0.86 50% 42% 29% -5 -2 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 18% .25 64% .16
Dec
20		 San Jose St. A- A+ A+ C+ A+ 32% 10% 58% C+ A F A+ C A- B- A B+ A- A A+ F+ B- 21% 31% 48% B B B+ A- A- A- A+ D- A
1.29 81% 80% 34% +12 +1 1.28 16% 2.5 .40 15% .31 83% .26 0.95 45% 25% 40% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 19% .18 80% .15
Dec
30		 Boise St. F F C F F 32% 26% 42% C- F D+ F D A C- F+ D+ A+ D+ A- A+ A+ 33% 15% 52% B A+ A+ A+ A+ D D- A+ B-
0.75 44% 40% 13% -17 -1 0.65 18% 0.9 .16 11% .26 63% .16 0.88 63% 29% 24% -8 0 0.88 22% 0.6 .14 13% .41 64% .26
Jan
3		 Wyoming A D- F A+ B- 47% 14% 39% B- B A+ C A+ B F B+ F A+ C+ B- A- A- 24% 22% 53% A+ A C- C- C- A B+ A- A
1.28 50% 29% 45% +1 +2 1.08 49% 0.9 .46 15% .23 75% .17 0.95 55% 40% 29% -4 -1 0.91 38% 1.0 .38 21% .27 69% .19
Jan
6		 Colorado St. A- B C- A+ A 37% 17% 46% B- A B- A+ A+ C A F+ B A B- D- B+ A 42% 14% 44% D+ A C- F+ D- B+ A+ D- A
1.22 65% 38% 43% +8 0 1.20 31% 1.8 .55 15% .38 62% .23 1.07 57% 43% 32% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.3 .42 21% .21 82% .17
Jan
10		 Air Force A B A+ B- B- 31% 9% 60% B+ B A F D+ B- D A+ C A+ C F A+ C+ 48% 15% 38% D+ C B+ A+ A A+ D- A+ B-
1.32 67% 60% 37% +7 +1 1.19 39% 0.7 .28 13% .27 81% .22 0.71 58% 67% 20% -4 +1 0.98 18% 0.7 .12 31% .36 47% .17
Jan
13		 Grand Canyon A C A+ A+ A+ 45% 24% 31% B A+ D+ D+ D B+ A+ B- A+ A+ C+ A- A+ A 28% 31% 41% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A F B+
1.19 55% 58% 53% +12 0 1.27 22% 1.0 .22 15% .45 75% .34 0.87 56% 28% 25% -9 -2 0.79 20% 0.8 .15 12% .23 87% .20
Jan
17		 San Diego St. B A F A- B 28% 19% 54% C B D+ A+ B- C B C- B- B F C D F+ 22% 47% 31% A+ C- A+ B A B+ F B F
1.01 67% 0% 38% -1 0 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 22% .34 71% .25 1.06 91% 38% 38% +8 -5 1.10 24% 1.0 .24 20% .48 73% .35
Jan
21		 Fresno St. C- D+ F F F+ 41% 11% 48% B+ D- C A+ A A+ D F F+ A- A- D- B- B 29% 19% 52% B B B- C C+ A+ F F F
1.05 58% 29% 23% -9 +1 0.86 28% 1.5 .43 13% .22 60% .13 0.94 50% 44% 32% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.0 .28 28% .46 85% .39
Jan
24		 Nevada B- F C+ A D+ 40% 10% 50% B+ C- B- B+ B A A+ B- A+ B+ C+ F A- C+ 39% 22% 39% D C B- A+ A+ B+ B- D- C
1.14 30% 40% 40% -7 +1 0.92 30% 1.3 .40 13% .44 74% .33 1.04 55% 55% 30% 0 0 1.02 32% 0.6 .19 17% .36 81% .29
Jan
27		 UNLV B+ C+ A+ A A- 53% 9% 38% A+ A C F F A F C F A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 28% 31% B+ A+ A+ A- A+ A A- F+ B
1.19 58% 60% 41% +6 +3 1.19 29% 0.7 .21 13% .28 72% .20 0.82 68% 13% 18% -10 -1 0.80 18% 0.7 .13 21% .29 76% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 San Jose St. A+ B+ F A+ A 50% 13% 37% B+ A D- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ F C+ D 17% 26% 57% B- D+ C F F+ F B- C+ B-
1.41 70% 17% 47% +10 +2 1.26 28% 1.6 .44 9% .42 88% .36 1.25 56% 57% 33% +4 -2 1.06 32% 1.4 .44 8% .26 73% .19
Feb
4		 Utah St. D- B F F D+ 53% 19% 28% A- C F F F C+ A+ D+ A+ C+ C F B- C+ 35% 12% 53% B C+ B C B B- D B C-
0.91 60% 22% 23% -7 +1 0.91 21% 0.3 .06 21% .52 70% .36 1.18 61% 67% 33% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.2 .39 16% .36 68% .25
Feb
7		 Boise St. A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 10% 42% A+ A+ A+ F D+ A+ A- B- A- F B- F F F 19% 10% 71% B+ F B- C+ B- C+ F F F
1.34 60% 60% 50% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.5 .18 7% .34 71% .24 1.35 56% 60% 44% +13 0 1.27 31% 1.0 .31 16% .48 96% .46
Feb
11		 Grand Canyon B- F+ B A+ A+ 35% 30% 35% D+ A+ D- F F+ D C+ C C+ A+ B F A+ A+ 33% 22% 45% B A+ B- D C C+ C+ C- C
1.02 44% 43% 56% +8 -2 1.15 20% 0.8 .17 20% .33 72% .24 0.93 53% 45% 17% -11 0 0.78 31% 1.2 .36 18% .32 78% .25
Feb
17		 Air Force A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 44% 2% 54% A+ A+ A+ F B C- A F B B C F A+ B 23% 17% 60% A- B+ A+ B- A F D+ C+ C-
1.39 64% 100% 52% +18 +3 1.44 45% 0.9 .39 16% .40 63% .25 0.86 58% 56% 23% -7 -1 0.87 13% 1.0 .13 17% .32 63% .20
Feb
21		 Fresno St. A D+ A+ A+ A- 55% 15% 31% A A C- F D A+ D+ A+ C D F F B- F 37% 22% 41% B F+ D B C D+ A+ A+ A+
1.19 57% 50% 41% +4 +2 1.15 27% 0.9 .23 13% .22 85% .19 1.16 75% 50% 32% +8 0 1.17 33% 0.9 .30 16% .16 56% .09



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.5 10.3 7.3 18.2 1st
2nd 1.5 23.8 20.1 45.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 12.6 14.1 27.0 3rd
4th 1.4 5.5 7.0 4th
5th 2.0 0.5 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 3.7 20.1 38.4 30.5 7.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 7.3    4.9 2.4
15-5 33.9% 10.3    1.2 6.0 3.1
14-6 1.3% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 18.2% 18.2 6.1 8.5 3.3 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 7.3% 87.4% 25.4% 62.0% 8.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.0 0.9 83.1%
15-5 30.5% 72.2% 21.0% 51.3% 10.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.1 8.5 7.6 0.1 8.5 64.9%
14-6 38.4% 58.5% 17.3% 41.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 7.6 12.4 0.3 15.9 49.9%
13-7 20.1% 42.1% 12.4% 29.7% 10.7 0.0 0.3 1.8 6.0 0.3 11.7 33.9%
12-8 3.7% 26.2% 9.7% 16.5% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 2.7 18.2%
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 60.3% 17.7% 42.6% 10.2 39.7 51.8%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 7.6 0.7 15.1 33.3 30.8 16.9 2.7 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.9% 88.3% 9.2 0.5 3.4 18.5 30.8 28.6 6.3 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9% 84.0% 9.4 1.7 11.5 29.1 33.6 8.1
Lose Out 0.4% 1.8% 11.5 0.9 0.9