New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.6 #56
Expected Predictive Rating +12.6 #42
Pace 73.4 #70
Improvement +4.2 #19

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #87 B- C+ B- C A-
Defense #38 A- C+ B+ B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #116 1.18 #145 +1.9 #111
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #340 0.87 #44 -2.6 #306
Three Pointers 47% #62 1.03 #157 +3.7 #66
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #99 +3.0 #99
Freethrows 17.1 #209 76% #61 13.1 #154
Second Chance 30.9% #181 1.11 #110 0.34 #133
Turnovers 15.4% #106
Total Offense +3.5 #87

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #360 1.09 #97 +7.9 #10
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #180 0.74 #165 +0.1 #179
Three Pointers 53% #8 0.87 #38 -2.3 #274
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #38 +5.7 #38
Freethrows 14.9 #63 70% #82 10.4 #312
Second Chance 28.6% #106 1.04 #195 0.30 #130
Turnovers 19.6% #44
Total Defense +6.0 #38

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.7% #32 -1.7% #53
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.2% #135 -9.5% #37
Possession Length 16.4 #93 17.7 #255
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #114 0.16 #137
Improvement +1.5 #89 +2.7 #43

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.7% 31.4% 18.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.3% 19.9% 9.5%
Average Seed 10.1 10.1 10.5
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 96.4% 97.1% 84.3%
Conference Champion 17.8% 18.5% 5.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.9% 9.1% 5.5%
First Round25.9% 26.5% 15.2%
Second Round9.3% 9.5% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 1.9% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 94.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 4
Quad 26 - 38 - 7
Quad 36 - 214 - 9
Quad 48 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 324 East Texas A&M W 76 - 54 97%  +16  1 - 0 +9 -8 F B+ D- +15 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 156 Texas Arlington W 74 - 56 88%  +12  2 - 0 +15 +1 B F C+ +13 A+ C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 295 UC Riverside W 82 - 68 96%  +5  3 - 0 +3 +8 B- C A+ -4 D- C+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 136 @New Mexico St. L 68 - 76 69%  -2  3 - 1 -4 +1 C- C F -5 A- F F
 Thu, Nov 20 23 Nebraska L 72 - 84 28%  -11  3 - 2 +4 -2 B C C- +8 C A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 55 Mississippi St. W 80 - 78 50%  +2  4 - 2 +12 +9 B+ B- B- +2 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 301 Alabama St. W 93 - 87 96%  -6  5 - 2 -5 +9 A+ F B+ -14 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 61 Santa Clara W 98 - 71 63%  +11  6 - 2 +33 +24 A+ A+ A +8 A+ C A+
 Wed, Dec 10 49 @Virginia Commonwealth W 81 - 78 34%  -1  7 - 2 +17 +15 A+ F D- +2 A+ C- B
 Sun, Dec 14 189 Florida Gulf Coast W 75 - 59 91%  +5  8 - 2 +11 -1 F C F +12 A+ A C+
 Sat, Dec 20 221 San Jose St. W 88 - 65 92%  +10  9 - 2 1 - 0 +17 +13 A+ D+ A+ +4 B A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 30 63 @Boise St. L 53 - 62 41%  +0  9 - 3 1 - 1 +3 -12 F C A+ +15 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 95 Wyoming W 78 - 58 74%  +6  10 - 3 2 - 1 +23 +18 A- A+ B+ +8 A+ C+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 94 @Colorado St. W 80 - 70 53%  +7  11 - 3 3 - 1 +19 +13 A+ A+ C +6 A+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 334 @Air Force W 76 - 59 95% 
 Tue, Jan 13 83 Grand Canyon W 76 - 70 70% 
 Sat, Jan 17 52 @San Diego St. L 73 - 77 36% 
 Wed, Jan 21 157 Fresno St. W 81 - 68 88% 
 Sat, Jan 24 90 Nevada W 76 - 70 71% 
 Tue, Jan 27 142 @UNLV W 81 - 75 70% 
 Sat, Jan 31 221 @San Jose St. W 78 - 68 82% 
 Wed, Feb 4 35 Utah St. L 76 - 77 46% 
 Sat, Feb 7 63 Boise St. W 73 - 69 63% 
 Wed, Feb 11 83 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 73 48% 
 Tue, Feb 17 334 Air Force W 79 - 56 98% 
 Sat, Feb 21 157 @Fresno St. W 78 - 71 73% 
 Tue, Feb 24 90 @Nevada W 73 - 72 50% 
 Sat, Feb 28 52 San Diego St. W 76 - 74 59% 
 Wed, Mar 4 94 Colorado St. W 76 - 69 73% 
 Sat, Mar 7 35 @Utah St. L 73 - 80 26% 
Totals 21 - 9 13 - 7 +10 +4 B- C+ B- +6 A- C+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 4.3 6.2 4.4 1.5 0.4 17.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 7.8 9.1 3.9 0.8 0.0 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.0 8.1 8.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 20.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 5.6 6.3 1.2 0.1 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.5 4.8 1.1 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.2 1.3 0.1 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.9 0.1 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.9 9.0 13.8 17.4 18.1 15.7 10.3 5.2 1.6 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 98.1% 1.5    1.5 0.1
17-3 84.5% 4.4    3.4 1.0 0.0
16-4 60.0% 6.2    3.4 2.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 27.0% 4.3    1.1 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.6% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.8% 17.8 9.8 5.9 1.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.4% 98.8% 35.8% 63.0% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1%
18-2 1.6% 91.7% 31.4% 60.3% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 88.0%
17-3 5.2% 79.7% 27.4% 52.3% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.1 72.0%
16-4 10.3% 64.4% 24.3% 40.1% 9.9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 2.1 0.0 3.7 53.0%
15-5 15.7% 45.4% 19.2% 26.2% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.5 3.8 0.0 8.6 32.5%
14-6 18.1% 28.8% 14.1% 14.7% 10.7 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 0.1 12.9 17.1%
13-7 17.4% 17.8% 10.8% 7.1% 10.9 0.0 0.5 2.5 0.1 14.3 7.9%
12-8 13.8% 11.1% 8.3% 2.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.1 12.3 3.0%
11-9 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 1.1% 11.1 0.0 0.6 0.1 8.3 1.1%
10-10 4.9% 5.6% 5.4% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.6 0.2%
9-11 2.3% 3.0% 3.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 2.2
8-12 0.9% 2.3% 2.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 30.7% 14.2% 16.6% 10.1 69.3 19.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.9 10.3 24.1 34.5 24.1 6.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 6.6 4.8 52.4 28.6 9.5 4.8