New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#41
Expected Predictive Rating+14.5#34
Pace81.5#4
Improvement+0.9#157

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#69
First Shot+3.9#77
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#148
Layup/Dunks+5.9#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#295
Freethrows+2.5#48
Improvement-1.6#264

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#17
First Shot+5.9#29
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#29
Layups/Dunks+3.0#73
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#19
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#203
Freethrows+0.6#134
Improvement+2.5#61
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.2% 3.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.3% 91.9% 77.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.8% 87.4% 77.3%
Average Seed 8.7 8.6 9.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.9% 2.1% 9.5%
First Round88.8% 90.8% 72.6%
Second Round39.7% 40.9% 29.6%
Sweet Sixteen7.3% 7.5% 5.7%
Elite Eight2.6% 2.7% 1.4%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 4
Quad 28 - 112 - 5
Quad 34 - 216 - 7
Quad 410 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 180   Nicholls St. W 91-84 93%     1 - 0 +3.1 +1.1 +0.7
  Nov 08, 2024 24   UCLA W 72-64 39%     2 - 0 +23.6 +2.6 +20.5
  Nov 12, 2024 177   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 100-81 93%     3 - 0 +15.2 +9.4 +2.6
  Nov 17, 2024 13   @ St. John's L 71-85 23%     3 - 1 +6.6 +12.8 -6.3
  Nov 21, 2024 328   Grambling St. W 80-58 98%     4 - 1 +8.9 -5.8 +12.2
  Nov 24, 2024 279   Texas Southern W 99-68 97%     5 - 1 +21.5 +15.8 +2.6
  Nov 28, 2024 77   Arizona St. L 82-85 69%     5 - 2 +4.5 +9.2 -4.6
  Nov 29, 2024 61   USC W 83-73 62%     6 - 2 +19.5 +10.3 +8.9
  Dec 04, 2024 152   San Jose St. W 83-77 91%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +3.7 +7.5 -3.9
  Dec 07, 2024 126   New Mexico St. L 83-89 OT 89%     7 - 3 -6.7 +4.5 -10.5
  Dec 18, 2024 36   Virginia Commonwealth W 78-71 57%     8 - 3 +17.9 +7.0 +10.5
  Dec 28, 2024 53   @ Colorado St. W 76-68 47%     9 - 3 2 - 0 +21.6 +10.5 +11.2
  Dec 31, 2024 258   @ Fresno St. W 103-89 91%     10 - 3 3 - 0 +11.5 +10.2 -1.5
  Jan 03, 2025 82   Nevada W 82-81 OT 79%     11 - 3 4 - 0 +5.0 +3.2 +1.7
  Jan 07, 2025 174   @ Wyoming W 61-53 85%     12 - 3 5 - 0 +9.7 -7.8 +17.7
  Jan 11, 2025 54   San Diego St. W 62-48 67%     13 - 3 6 - 0 +22.1 -1.2 +23.8
  Jan 14, 2025 152   @ San Jose St. L 70-71 81%     13 - 4 6 - 1 +2.2 -3.8 +6.1
  Jan 17, 2025 52   Boise St. W 84-65 67%     14 - 4 7 - 1 +27.2 +11.3 +15.2
  Jan 20, 2025 258   Fresno St. W 95-67 96%     15 - 4 8 - 1 +20.0 +5.4 +10.4
  Jan 25, 2025 93   @ UNLV W 75-73 67%     16 - 4 9 - 1 +10.2 +11.8 -1.5
  Feb 01, 2025 55   @ Utah St. W 82-63 47%     17 - 4 10 - 1 +32.5 +7.0 +24.5
  Feb 05, 2025 53   Colorado St. W 87-65 67%     18 - 4 11 - 1 +30.1 +22.6 +8.9
  Feb 08, 2025 296   @ Air Force W 88-53 94%     19 - 4 12 - 1 +30.0 +6.7 +20.5
  Feb 12, 2025 174   Wyoming W 71-67 93%     20 - 4 13 - 1 +0.2 -3.5 +3.6
  Feb 16, 2025 55   Utah St. W 82-79 67%     21 - 4 14 - 1 +11.0 +10.5 +0.6
  Feb 19, 2025 52   @ Boise St. L 78-86 46%     21 - 5 14 - 2 +5.7 +7.2 -1.2
  Feb 25, 2025 54   @ San Diego St. L 65-73 47%     21 - 6 14 - 3 +5.6 +1.1 +4.6
  Mar 01, 2025 296   Air Force W 92-71 97%     22 - 6 15 - 3 +10.5 +7.4 +1.4
  Mar 04, 2025 82   @ Nevada W 71-67 62%     23 - 6 16 - 3 +13.5 +1.5 +12.0
  Mar 07, 2025 93   UNLV W 81-67 83%     24 - 6 17 - 3 +16.7 +11.0 +5.6
  Mar 13, 2025 152   San Jose St. W 82-70 87%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 90.3% 31.7% 58.6% 8.7 0.1 0.6 2.5 9.3 26.1 30.9 17.4 3.5 9.7 85.8%
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 90.3% 31.7% 58.6% 8.7 0.1 0.6 2.5 9.3 26.1 30.9 17.4 3.5 9.7 85.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 31.7% 100.0% 7.7 0.3 1.8 7.7 25.9 44.2 18.7 1.2 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 19.0% 93.2% 8.8 0.1 0.2 3.8 31.1 42.2 15.1 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 38.4% 84.6% 9.3 0.0 0.8 13.8 35.9 28.2 5.8
Lose Out 10.9% 77.3% 9.5 8.4 28.7 30.2 10.1