New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#64
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#64
Pace81.2#5
Improvement-1.1#252

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#59
First Shot+4.5#68
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#158
Layup/Dunks+6.1#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#234
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#267
Freethrows+2.2#65
Improvement+0.4#142

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#88
First Shot+1.2#128
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#35
Layups/Dunks+2.1#94
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#51
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#293
Freethrows+0.2#176
Improvement-1.5#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 1.3% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.1% 26.8% 15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.3% 14.7% 6.1%
Average Seed 10.1 9.9 10.5
.500 or above 97.2% 99.0% 95.4%
.500 or above in Conference 89.7% 95.2% 84.0%
Conference Champion 14.1% 20.1% 7.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.7% 6.1% 3.3%
First Round18.5% 23.6% 13.2%
Second Round6.9% 9.3% 4.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 2.3% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 51.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 5
Quad 25 - 47 - 8
Quad 35 - 213 - 10
Quad 48 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 238   Nicholls St. W 91-84 92%     1 - 0 -0.3 -0.4 -1.1
  Nov 08, 2024 20   UCLA W 72-64 26%     2 - 0 +22.9 +4.6 +17.7
  Nov 12, 2024 189   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 100-81 88%     3 - 0 +14.5 +8.1 +3.2
  Nov 17, 2024 15   @ St. John's L 71-85 17%     3 - 1 +4.6 +8.0 -3.4
  Nov 21, 2024 310   Grambling St. W 80-58 95%     4 - 1 +10.7 -7.5 +15.6
  Nov 24, 2024 299   Texas Southern W 99-68 95%     5 - 1 +20.5 +12.8 +4.5
  Nov 28, 2024 59   Arizona St. L 82-85 46%     5 - 2 +6.3 +11.2 -4.8
  Nov 29, 2024 71   USC W 83-73 52%     6 - 2 +17.8 +12.2 +5.3
  Dec 04, 2024 162   San Jose St. W 83-77 86%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +2.9 +6.5 -3.7
  Dec 07, 2024 201   New Mexico St. L 83-89 OT 89%     7 - 3 -10.8 -0.1 -10.1
  Dec 18, 2024 57   Virginia Commonwealth W 78-71 57%     8 - 3 +13.4 +7.1 +6.0
  Dec 28, 2024 97   @ Colorado St. W 78-77 51%    
  Dec 31, 2024 273   @ Fresno St. W 88-77 86%    
  Jan 03, 2025 60   Nevada W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 07, 2025 159   @ Wyoming W 79-74 68%    
  Jan 11, 2025 38   San Diego St. L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 14, 2025 162   @ San Jose St. W 81-76 69%    
  Jan 17, 2025 58   Boise St. W 80-78 57%    
  Jan 20, 2025 273   Fresno St. W 91-74 95%    
  Jan 25, 2025 106   @ UNLV W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 47   @ Utah St. L 79-85 31%    
  Feb 05, 2025 97   Colorado St. W 80-74 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 269   @ Air Force W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 12, 2025 159   Wyoming W 82-71 85%    
  Feb 16, 2025 47   Utah St. W 82-81 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 77-81 36%    
  Feb 25, 2025 38   @ San Diego St. L 71-78 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 269   Air Force W 81-64 94%    
  Mar 04, 2025 60   @ Nevada L 73-77 36%    
  Mar 07, 2025 106   UNLV W 80-73 73%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.9 4.5 3.6 1.8 0.5 0.1 14.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.4 6.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 6.3 6.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.2 6.1 1.5 0.1 16.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.4 5.3 1.4 0.1 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.2 3.8 1.0 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 5.3 8.5 11.9 14.4 15.2 14.4 11.4 7.5 4.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 98.7% 1.8    1.6 0.1
17-3 86.3% 3.6    2.7 0.8 0.0
16-4 60.2% 4.5    2.4 1.9 0.3 0.0
15-5 25.8% 2.9    0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.1% 14.1 8.2 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 41.0% 59.0% 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 96.6% 39.7% 56.9% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.4%
18-2 1.8% 88.3% 34.2% 54.2% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 82.3%
17-3 4.2% 74.1% 28.4% 45.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.1 63.8%
16-4 7.5% 53.6% 23.1% 30.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.6 0.0 3.5 39.7%
15-5 11.4% 35.2% 18.9% 16.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.3 0.1 7.4 20.1%
14-6 14.4% 21.8% 14.3% 7.5% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 0.2 11.2 8.8%
13-7 15.2% 14.0% 10.8% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.3 13.0 3.6%
12-8 14.4% 9.1% 8.1% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 13.1 1.1%
11-9 11.9% 6.1% 5.8% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 11.1 0.3%
10-10 8.5% 3.4% 3.4% 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.2
9-11 5.3% 2.2% 2.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.2
8-12 2.8% 1.8% 1.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
7-13 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.1% 11.9% 9.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.3 4.8 10.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 78.9 10.3%