New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#40
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#37
Pace80.4#6
Improvement+2.9#65

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#72
First Shot+3.8#76
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#146
Layup/Dunks+5.9#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#298
Freethrows+2.4#50
Improvement-2.0#296

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#26
First Shot+5.3#38
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#30
Layups/Dunks+2.8#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#212
Freethrows+0.5#140
Improvement+4.9#8
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 1.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 4.9% 6.1% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.0% 77.6% 66.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.6% 67.7% 55.5%
Average Seed 9.1 8.9 9.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 78.3% 84.2% 59.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.9% 10.1% 13.4%
First Round69.4% 72.3% 60.1%
Second Round30.8% 33.2% 23.0%
Sweet Sixteen7.6% 8.3% 5.3%
Elite Eight2.4% 2.6% 1.9%
Final Four0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Home) - 75.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 3
Quad 28 - 212 - 5
Quad 35 - 217 - 6
Quad 48 - 125 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 197   Nicholls St. W 91-84 92%     1 - 0 +2.8 +0.4 +1.2
  Nov 08, 2024 29   UCLA W 72-64 41%     2 - 0 +22.3 +2.1 +19.6
  Nov 12, 2024 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 100-81 92%     3 - 0 +15.2 +8.8 +3.2
  Nov 17, 2024 14   @ St. John's L 71-85 23%     3 - 1 +5.6 +12.4 -6.9
  Nov 21, 2024 339   Grambling St. W 80-58 98%     4 - 1 +7.9 -7.1 +12.4
  Nov 24, 2024 274   Texas Southern W 99-68 96%     5 - 1 +22.2 +14.4 +4.6
  Nov 28, 2024 61   Arizona St. L 82-85 61%     5 - 2 +6.0 +12.0 -5.9
  Nov 29, 2024 54   USC W 83-73 57%     6 - 2 +20.0 +12.0 +7.6
  Dec 04, 2024 146   San Jose St. W 83-77 89%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +4.6 +7.4 -2.8
  Dec 07, 2024 166   New Mexico St. L 83-89 OT 90%     7 - 3 -8.5 +2.0 -9.8
  Dec 18, 2024 38   Virginia Commonwealth W 78-71 59%     8 - 3 +16.4 +7.7 +8.4
  Dec 28, 2024 77   @ Colorado St. W 76-68 58%     9 - 3 2 - 0 +17.9 +10.5 +7.6
  Dec 31, 2024 259   @ Fresno St. W 103-89 91%     10 - 3 3 - 0 +10.9 +9.9 -1.8
  Jan 03, 2025 88   Nevada W 82-81 OT 77%     11 - 3 4 - 0 +5.0 +3.6 +1.3
  Jan 07, 2025 167   @ Wyoming W 61-53 81%     12 - 3 5 - 0 +10.5 -7.8 +18.5
  Jan 11, 2025 52   San Diego St. W 62-48 66%     13 - 3 6 - 0 +21.7 -0.8 +23.0
  Jan 14, 2025 146   @ San Jose St. L 70-71 78%     13 - 4 6 - 1 +2.6 -4.3 +6.9
  Jan 17, 2025 51   Boise St. W 84-65 66%     14 - 4 7 - 1 +26.7 +10.7 +15.3
  Jan 20, 2025 259   Fresno St. W 95-67 96%     15 - 4 8 - 1 +19.9 +5.4 +10.4
  Jan 25, 2025 101   @ UNLV W 75-73 68%     16 - 4 9 - 1 +9.1 +8.7 +0.5
  Feb 01, 2025 49   @ Utah St. W 82-63 47%     17 - 4 10 - 1 +31.7 +9.4 +21.3
  Feb 05, 2025 77   Colorado St. W 78-71 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 277   @ Air Force W 79-63 92%    
  Feb 12, 2025 167   Wyoming W 79-65 92%    
  Feb 16, 2025 49   Utah St. W 82-78 67%    
  Feb 19, 2025 51   @ Boise St. L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 25, 2025 52   @ San Diego St. L 71-72 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 277   Air Force W 82-61 98%    
  Mar 04, 2025 88   @ Nevada W 74-71 58%    
  Mar 07, 2025 101   UNLV W 79-69 83%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 4.4 20.2 28.9 19.0 5.6 78.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 8.2 5.2 0.6 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 1.6 0.0 4.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.0 14.2 25.5 29.6 19.0 5.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 5.6    5.6
18-2 100.0% 19.0    18.9 0.2
17-3 97.9% 28.9    24.9 4.0 0.0
16-4 79.4% 20.2    9.8 9.1 1.2 0.0
15-5 30.8% 4.4    0.6 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 78.3% 78.3 59.7 15.3 2.8 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 5.6% 99.3% 37.8% 61.4% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 98.8%
18-2 19.0% 93.5% 36.4% 57.0% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.3 5.0 4.8 2.4 0.4 1.2 89.8%
17-3 29.6% 83.5% 31.9% 51.5% 9.2 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.5 7.9 8.6 2.4 4.9 75.7%
16-4 25.5% 68.1% 26.0% 42.1% 10.0 0.1 0.8 3.8 7.4 5.2 0.1 8.1 56.9%
15-5 14.2% 52.7% 22.8% 29.8% 10.4 0.1 0.7 2.7 3.8 0.1 6.7 38.7%
14-6 5.0% 38.3% 18.3% 20.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.0 3.1 24.4%
13-7 1.0% 20.2% 7.7% 12.5% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 13.5%
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 75.0% 29.4% 45.6% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.3 5.8 11.4 17.7 21.7 13.3 0.2 25.0 64.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 4.3 0.5 3.3 20.0 36.2 25.7 12.4 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1% 100.0% 6.7 1.0 1.9 16.2 15.2 45.7 14.3 2.9 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6% 97.5% 7.3 1.3 5.7 15.7 29.6 28.3 15.7 1.3