New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.6 #45
Expected Predictive Rating +13.2 #41
Pace 75.5 #31
Improvement +4.7 #20

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #68 B- C+ B C B
Defense #34 B B- B B- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #101 1.17 #165 +1.9 #114
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #332 0.80 #101 -2.8 #312
Three Pointers 46% #77 1.11 #58 +4.7 #42
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #72 +3.8 #72
Freethrows 0.29 #212 76% #67 0.22 #162
Second Chance 30.5% #180 1.10 #87 0.34 #128
Turnovers 14.2% #44
Total Offense +5.1 #68

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #357 1.14 #154 +6.5 #17
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #116 0.79 #239 -1.0 #262
Three Pointers 50% #10 0.86 #20 -0.8 #224
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #50 +4.7 #50
Freethrows 0.27 #80 73% #205 0.20 #94
Second Chance 26.7% #53 0.99 #125 0.26 #61
Turnovers 19.5% #46
Total Defense +6.5 #34

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #32 -1.9% #43
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.8% #95 -7.4% #54
Possession Length 15.9 #55 17.6 #244
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #108 0.16 #138
Improvement +2.9 #55 +1.8 #82

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 2.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.6% 67.7% 50.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.5% 58.6% 39.6%
Average Seed 9.8 9.5 10.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 31.2% 45.9% 14.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four16.7% 15.8% 17.7%
First Round51.0% 60.0% 40.7%
Second Round19.3% 23.6% 14.3%
Sweet Sixteen3.6% 4.6% 2.4%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.4% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Home) - 53.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 5
Quad 27 - 210 - 7
Quad 36 - 116 - 8
Quad 48 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 311 East Texas A&M W 76 - 54 98% +16  1 - 0 +10 -7 F+ B D+ +15 A B A+
 Sat, Nov 8 163 Texas Arlington W 74 - 56 91% +12  2 - 0 +15 +1 B F+ C+ +13 A C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 291 UC Riverside W 82 - 68 97% +5  3 - 0 +3 +9 C+ C A+ -5 D- B+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 167 @New Mexico St. L 68 - 76 81% -2  3 - 1 -6 -0 D C+ F -6 B F+ D-
 Thu, Nov 20 13 Nebraska L 72 - 84 25% -11  3 - 2 +6 -1 B- C C+ +9 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 73 Mississippi St. W 80 - 78 64% +2  4 - 2 +10 +9 B B- C+ +1 C A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 322 Alabama St. W 93 - 87 98% -6  5 - 2 -7 +11 A+ D- B+ -18 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 46 Santa Clara W 98 - 71 62% +11  6 - 2 +36 +26 A+ A+ A +9 A+ C- A
 Wed, Dec 10 50 @Virginia Commonwealth W 81 - 78 43% -1  7 - 2 +16 +13 A+ F D +4 A+ C- B
 Sun, Dec 14 223 Florida Gulf Coast W 75 - 59 94% +5  8 - 2 +10 -0 F C D +10 A A C+
 Sat, Dec 20 242 San Jose St. W 88 - 65 95% +10  9 - 2 1 - 0 +15 +12 A- C B+ +4 B A- B
 Tue, Dec 30 62 @Boise St. L 53 - 62 49% +0  9 - 3 1 - 1 +3 -14 F D+ A+ +17 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 111 Wyoming W 78 - 58 85% +6  10 - 3 2 - 1 +21 +17 B- A+ C+ +7 A- C- A-
 Tue, Jan 6 103 @Colorado St. W 80 - 70 65% +7  11 - 3 3 - 1 +18 +13 A A+ C +5 A- D B
 Sat, Jan 10 350 @Air Force W 91 - 49 96% +21  12 - 3 4 - 1 +33 +18 B+ D+ B +15 C- A A+
 Tue, Jan 13 65 Grand Canyon W 87 - 64 72% +9  13 - 3 5 - 1 +29 +16 A+ D+ B +11 A+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 43 @San Diego St. L 79 - 83 38% -3  13 - 4 5 - 2 +11 +8 B- B- C +3 C A B+
 Wed, Jan 21 146 Fresno St. W 83 - 74 90% +11  14 - 4 6 - 2 +7 +3 D A A+ +3 B- C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 71 Nevada W 80 - 73 74% +0  15 - 4 7 - 2 +12 +8 C- B A +4 C A+ A-
 Tue, Jan 27 128 @UNLV W 89 - 61 74% +18  16 - 4 8 - 2 +33 +12 A F+ A +19 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 242 @San Jose St. W 90 - 80 89% +7  17 - 4 9 - 2 +8 +23 A- C+ A+ -14 D+ F+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 38 Utah St. W 78 - 77 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 62 Boise St. W 78 - 72 70%
 Wed, Feb 11 65 @Grand Canyon L 74 - 75 50%
 Tue, Feb 17 350 Air Force W 84 - 57 99%
 Sat, Feb 21 146 @Fresno St. W 79 - 71 76%
 Tue, Feb 24 71 @Nevada W 76 - 75 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 43 San Diego St. W 77 - 74 60%
 Wed, Mar 4 103 Colorado St. W 78 - 68 83%
 Sat, Mar 7 38 @Utah St. L 75 - 80 33%
Totals 23 - 7 15 - 5 +12 +5 B- C+ B +7 B B- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 5.4 14.5 9.1 2.0 31.2 1st
2nd 0.1 4.8 14.9 5.6 0.1 25.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 11.9 6.1 0.1 20.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.6 5.8 0.2 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.0 0.5 8.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.8 12.9 23.2 26.6 20.2 9.2 2.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 2.0    2.0
17-3 99.1% 9.1    7.6 1.5
16-4 72.0% 14.5    6.1 6.8 1.6 0.0
15-5 20.2% 5.4    0.5 1.9 2.3 0.6 0.0
14-6 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.2% 31.2 16.2 10.3 4.0 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 2.0% 98.5% 33.2% 65.2% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.7%
17-3 9.2% 92.3% 30.4% 62.0% 8.7 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.7 89.0%
16-4 20.2% 80.9% 27.5% 53.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.6 6.0 3.4 3.9 73.6%
15-5 26.6% 62.7% 20.4% 42.4% 10.2 0.0 0.7 2.7 6.6 6.6 0.0 9.9 53.2%
14-6 23.2% 48.2% 15.3% 32.9% 10.5 0.1 0.8 3.6 6.6 0.1 12.0 38.9%
13-7 12.9% 30.8% 11.9% 18.9% 10.8 0.1 0.9 2.9 0.1 8.9 21.5%
12-8 4.8% 17.5% 9.5% 8.0% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 3.9 8.8%
11-9 1.1% 17.9% 12.9% 4.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 5.6%
10-10 0.1% 15.4% 15.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 59.6% 20.1% 39.5% 9.8 40.4 49.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 5.3 4.6 14.5 33.6 38.2 9.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 7.2 2.4 20.5 44.6 22.9 9.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 98.3% 7.9 1.7 11.8 21.8 30.3 26.9 4.2 1.7