North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.7 #133
Expected Predictive Rating +2.3 #134
Pace 61.7 #347
Improvement +3.0 #44

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #283 D C D+ B- B+
Defense #45 A- C A+ F C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #6 1.14 #203 +5.3 #31
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #232 0.57 #353 -2.6 #304
Three Pointers 34% #317 0.83 #340 -6.7 #345
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #291 -4.0 #289
Freethrows 20.3 #50 68% #303 13.8 #107
Second Chance 31.1% #175 1.07 #156 0.33 #153
Turnovers 18.1% #269
Total Offense -4.1 #283

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #140 1.04 #52 +1.5 #125
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #128 0.79 #229 -0.9 #247
Three Pointers 38% #262 0.82 #12 +5.2 #24
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #36 +5.8 #36
Freethrows 22.5 #352 69% #54 15.5 #37
Second Chance 33.0% #272 1.00 #132 0.33 #201
Turnovers 21.2% #15
Total Defense +5.8 #45

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #59 -0.1% #162
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.8% #325 -11.2% #29
Possession Length 18.7 #318 17.8 #276
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #94 0.17 #172
Improvement +0.2 #168 +2.8 #40

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 5.5% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.6 13.0
.500 or above 80.8% 92.7% 75.9%
.500 or above in Conference 64.6% 82.2% 57.5%
Conference Champion 3.2% 6.9% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 1.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.8% 5.5% 3.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 28.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 35 - 57 - 13
Quad 410 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 288 Northwestern St. W 80 - 53 86%  +8  1 - 0 +17 +16 A A+ D- +6 C A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 251 Loyola Chicago W 64 - 62 74%  +4  2 - 0 -3 -8 F F F +6 A+ C+ C+
 Wed, Nov 12 182 @Oregon St. L 64 - 66 51%  +6  2 - 1 -1 -1 C+ B- F +0 A- B- F
 Fri, Nov 14 41 @St. Mary's L 49 - 80 10%  -23  2 - 2 -16 -14 F F A- -3 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 261 Central Arkansas W 74 - 56 83%  +5  3 - 2 +9 -2 F D- A- +11 B+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 255 Eastern Washington W 79 - 71 OT 83%  +2  4 - 2 -0 -4 F C+ B +3 A B- B
 Sun, Nov 30 306 Prairie View W 72 - 69 89%  -2  5 - 2 -9 -7 B F F -2 C C- C
 Tue, Dec 2 300 Houston Christian W 77 - 75 87%  +1  6 - 2 -9 +8 A+ B F -16 F A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 44 TCU L 55 - 65 25%  -2  6 - 3 -1 -9 F C- C +8 A+ D A+
 Sun, Dec 14 200 @South Alabama W 58 - 57 54%  +4  7 - 3 +2 -8 F B- F +10 A+ F A-
 Wed, Dec 17 61 Santa Clara L 60 - 63 24%  +2  7 - 4 +6 -8 F A+ B+ +14 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 78 @Memphis L 48 - 57 20%  -8  7 - 5 0 - 1 +2 -14 F C+ F +15 C A- A+
 Sun, Jan 4 81 Tulsa W 72 - 67 41%  -0  8 - 5 1 - 1 +9 +7 C A- A+ +3 A+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 89 South Florida L 70 - 74 42%  -0  8 - 6 1 - 2 -0 -0 C+ C+ B- -0 B- F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 104 @Wichita St. L 61 - 67 29% 
 Sun, Jan 18 176 @Tulane L 64 - 65 49% 
 Wed, Jan 21 315 Texas San Antonio W 71 - 57 90% 
 Sat, Jan 24 266 East Carolina W 69 - 58 85% 
 Wed, Jan 28 81 @Tulsa L 64 - 72 21% 
 Sat, Jan 31 113 UAB W 67 - 66 54% 
 Wed, Feb 4 245 @Rice W 65 - 62 62% 
 Sat, Feb 7 315 @Texas San Antonio W 68 - 60 76% 
 Thu, Feb 12 78 Memphis L 63 - 66 40% 
 Sun, Feb 15 143 @Temple L 65 - 67 41% 
 Wed, Feb 18 176 Tulane W 68 - 62 70% 
 Sun, Feb 22 106 Florida Atlantic W 67 - 66 51% 
 Wed, Feb 25 166 @Charlotte L 63 - 64 48% 
 Sun, Mar 1 113 @UAB L 64 - 69 32% 
 Wed, Mar 4 245 Rice W 68 - 59 80% 
Totals 16 - 13 9 - 9 +2 -4 D C D+ +6 A- C A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.4 3.9 0.9 0.1 8.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 5.8 1.6 0.1 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 6.7 3.6 0.1 11.6 5th
6th 0.4 5.1 5.7 0.5 11.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.8 7.2 1.8 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 6.0 3.7 0.2 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.3 4.7 0.8 10.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.8 1.0 0.1 8.3 10th
11th 0.3 1.5 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 6.2 10.3 15.0 17.9 17.3 13.8 8.9 4.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 92.9% 0.3    0.3 0.1
14-4 65.5% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1
13-5 28.5% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 24.3% 24.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3
14-4 1.6% 15.8% 15.8% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.4
13-5 4.5% 11.8% 11.8% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 4.0
12-6 8.9% 9.2% 9.2% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 8.1
11-7 13.8% 5.6% 5.6% 12.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 13.1
10-8 17.3% 3.9% 3.9% 13.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 16.7
9-9 17.9% 2.1% 2.1% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 17.6
8-10 15.0% 0.9% 0.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.8
7-11 10.3% 1.2% 1.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.2
6-12 6.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 6.2
5-13 2.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 12.8 96.2 0.0%