North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.4 137
Results Rating +0.8 147
Pace 63.6 314
Improvement +0.6 169

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 274 D C+ C- B- B
Defense B 50 B C- A+ D C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% 5 C- 56% 231 +5.1 28
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 95 F+ 30% 358 -2.0 278
Three Pointers 31% 345 F 27% 363 -8.0 357
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +0.9 66 D- -5.7 348
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 326
Second Chance B- 34.0% 80 C- 1.00 220 C+ 0.34 108
Turnovers C- 17.5% 229
Freethrows B 0.35 48 C- 71% 245 B- 0.25 91
Total Offense D+ -3.9 274

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 235 B- 9.5% 99
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 150 F 12.5% 364
Three Pointers D+ 80% 274 C- 1.1% 229
Total D+ 50% 298 D- 7.4% 337

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 203 C+ 56% 112 -1.3 126
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 97 B 35% 72 +0.2 202
Three Pointers 39% 234 B 31% 76 -2.4 81
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 107 B -3.1 61
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 61
Second Chance D+ 32.8% 284 C 1.02 171 C- 0.34 243
Turnovers A+ 22.7% 6
Freethrows D- 0.37 334 B- 70% 80 D 0.26 319
Total Defense B +5.3 50

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 208 C+ 12.9% 94
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A- 13% 7 A 10.0% 15
Three Pointers D+ 86% 252 A+ 3.3% 4
Total C+ 54% 137 A- 8.5% 27

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 287 17.5 233
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 42 0.18 227
Improvement +1.5 #110 -0.8 #235

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 169 141 115
Results Rating Rank 188 149 117
Conference Record 7 - 11 9 - 9 11 - 7
Conference Finish 10 7 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.8
.500 or above 75% 85% 54%
.500 or above in Conference 62% 75% 34%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Tulane (Home) - 66.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 36 - 47 - 12
Quad 49 - 317 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 275 Northwestern St. W 80 - 53 84% +8  95% 1 - 0 A- +18 A+ +15 A+ A+ D+ A- +7 C A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 282 Loyola Chicago W 64 - 62 78% +4  75% 2 - 0 C- -5 F -11 F+ F F B+ +6 A+ C C+
 Wed, Nov 12 158 @Oregon St. L 64 - 66 44% +6  90% 2 - 1 C +1 D+ -3 B C F B- +3 A- B D-
 Fri, Nov 14 40 @St. Mary's L 49 - 80 9% -23  4% 2 - 2 F+ -15 F -15 F D A- C -1 A F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 183 Central Arkansas W 74 - 56 71% +5  75% 3 - 2 B+ +14 C- -2 F D+ A A+ +16 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 186 Eastern Washington W 79 - 71 OT 72% +2  69% 4 - 2 C+ +3 D -4 F B- C A- +7 A- B B
 Sun, Nov 30 331 Prairie View W 72 - 69 92% -2  24% 5 - 2 D -11 F -10 B F F C -1 C- D+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 298 Houston Christian W 77 - 75 87% +1  58% 6 - 2 D -9 B +6 A+ B F F -15 F A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 50 TCU L 55 - 65 27% -2  24% 6 - 3 C- -2 F -12 F+ C- C- A +9 A F+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 182 @South Alabama W 58 - 57 49% +4  79% 7 - 3 C+ +3 F -11 F B+ F A+ +13 A+ F A-
 Wed, Dec 17 42 Santa Clara L 60 - 63 15% +2  60% 7 - 4 B +10 F+ -9 F A B+ A+ +18 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 101 @Memphis L 48 - 57 27% -8  0% 7 - 5 0 - 1 C -1 F -18 F C F A+ +16 C- B- A+
 Sun, Jan 4 76 Tulsa W 72 - 67 38% -0  39% 8 - 5 1 - 1 B +10 B- +4 C- A B+ B+ +6 A+ F+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 58 South Florida L 70 - 74 31% -0  43% 8 - 6 1 - 2 C+ +2 C- -1 B- C+ C B +4 B- F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 97 @Wichita St. L 67 - 78 25% -8  4% 8 - 7 1 - 3 C- -2 D+ -4 F B+ C C+ +1 F B- A+
 Sun, Jan 18 162 @Tulane W 71 - 63 45% +6  87% 9 - 7 2 - 3 B +11 C +0 C- D+ F A +11 A+ C+ B-
 Wed, Jan 21 334 Texas San Antonio W 81 - 62 92% +14  99% 10 - 7 3 - 3 C+ +5 C +2 C A+ F+ B +4 C+ A+ A
 Fri, Jan 23 246 East Carolina L 59 - 63 80% -3  3% 10 - 8 3 - 4 D- -12 F -13 F C- A+ C+ +1 B- F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 76 @Tulsa L 66 - 82 19% -4  5% 10 - 9 3 - 5 D+ -5 F+ -9 F+ D- D+ B- +3 B D- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 121 UAB L 68 - 72 56% -0  49% 10 - 10 3 - 6 C- -4 D+ -3 D- D A+ C -1 F C A+
 Wed, Feb 4 232 @Rice L 83 - 86 2OT 59% +1  45% 10 - 11 3 - 7 C- -4 D -6 F+ D+ B B- +2 A- F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 334 @Texas San Antonio W 81 - 58 82% +10  57% 11 - 11 4 - 7 A- +15 C+ +2 D+ A- D- A+ +12 B- B- A+
 Thu, Feb 12 101 Memphis W 76 - 69 48% -0  42% 12 - 11 5 - 7 B +9 B +6 C- A+ D+ B- +3 B+ D+ A-
 Sun, Feb 15 156 @Temple W 65 - 62 44% -3  24% 13 - 11 6 - 7 B- +6 D+ -4 F C+ A+ A +10 D- B+ A+
 Wed, Feb 18 162 Tulane W 68 - 63 67%
 Thu, Feb 19 162 Tulane L 71 - 77 67% +3  65% 13 - 12 6 - 8 D -9 C- -1 F A+ C- F+ -9 C- F C+
 Sun, Feb 22 116 Florida Atlantic W 69 - 68 55%
 Wed, Feb 25 174 @Charlotte L 65 - 66 47%
 Sun, Mar 1 121 @UAB L 66 - 70 34%
 Wed, Mar 4 232 Rice W 71 - 63 78%
Totals 16 - 14 9 - 10 +1 D+ -4 A- D- B B +5 F C- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- F+ F D- 49% 45% 31% B D B- C- C+ C- B C- B- B C+ B B B 38% 23% 39% C+ B D+ C C- A+ D- B- D
1.03 56% 30% 27% -6 +1 0.92 34% 1.0 .34 18% .35 71% .25 1.01 56% 35% 31% -3 0 0.95 33% 1.0 .34 23% .37 70% .25
Nov
6		 Northwestern St. A+ A- A A+ A+ 38% 14% 48% C+ A+ A+ B A+ D+ A+ F B+ A- A+ F B+ D 16% 41% 44% A+ C F A+ A+ A+ F C F
1.35 69% 50% 45% +14 +1 1.31 46% 1.3 .58 19% .46 64% .29 0.90 40% 54% 29% 0 -4 0.94 33% 0.3 .10 27% .63 74% .46
Nov
9		 Loyola Chicago F C+ F D+ F 50% 21% 29% B F+ B+ F F F A+ B A+ B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 39% 11% 50% C A+ D- B C C+ F C F
0.97 57% 11% 33% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.5 .16 18% .50 81% .41 0.94 53% 20% 18% -16 +1 0.73 36% 0.8 .30 20% .59 68% .40
Nov
12		 Oregon St. D+ D+ A+ C C+ 56% 7% 37% A B A- F+ C F C D- C- B- A+ F C A 37% 9% 53% F+ A- A D B D- F D- F
1.02 52% 67% 33% -2 +3 1.05 40% 0.8 .33 22% .33 69% .22 1.05 31% 50% 35% -8 +1 0.88 20% 1.3 .27 14% .52 82% .43
Nov
14		 St. Mary's F F F C- F 47% 17% 36% B+ F D+ F D A- C A+ B C A+ A+ D A+ 47% 13% 40% F+ A F D+ F A+ F C F+
0.73 16% 22% 32% -24 +1 0.57 21% 0.7 .15 12% .24 86% .20 1.20 43% 17% 39% -7 +2 0.91 54% 1.2 .62 22% .41 81% .33
Nov
20		 Central Arkansas C- A+ F F F 43% 25% 32% D+ F B- F D+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A 37% 16% 47% C- A- D- A+ A+ A+ F A+ F
1.08 74% 18% 14% -8 0 0.86 31% 0.9 .29 15% .55 84% .46 0.82 50% 17% 33% -7 +1 0.89 33% 0.5 .15 28% .64 56% .36
Nov
25		 Eastern Washington D C+ D F F 42% 17% 42% C F C- A- B- C A+ F A A- C+ A- A- A 40% 26% 34% B- A- D- A+ B B D+ D- D
1.08 60% 38% 20% -8 +1 0.88 32% 1.3 .41 16% .49 67% .33 0.97 55% 31% 29% -5 -1 0.90 36% 0.8 .28 21% .33 79% .26
Nov
30		 Prairie View F A+ F A+ B 52% 20% 27% C+ B C- F F F A+ D A C C+ C- A C 49% 27% 24% F C- B+ F D+ C D+ F+ D
1.02 74% 0% 50% +7 +1 1.18 34% 0.6 .21 27% .51 69% .35 0.98 54% 38% 25% -5 0 0.92 18% 1.5 .27 16% .37 82% .30
Dec
2		 Houston Christian B C+ F A+ A+ 61% 5% 34% A+ A+ C+ B+ B F A+ F C- F F C- F F 39% 18% 43% D+ F A A+ A+ F F A+ F
1.24 64% 0% 64% +17 +4 1.44 35% 1.2 .42 24% .40 47% .19 1.21 71% 38% 42% +10 0 1.23 21% 0.3 .06 6% .55 59% .33
Dec
7		 TCU F C- F F F 59% 14% 27% A+ F+ F A+ C- C- A- C+ B+ A C F+ A+ A 40% 30% 30% A A D+ F+ F+ A+ F A D
0.82 54% 17% 17% -13 +2 0.82 14% 1.8 .24 21% .32 71% .23 0.97 59% 46% 15% -6 -1 0.88 38% 1.2 .47 25% .44 64% .28
Dec
14		 South Alabama F C A+ F F 20% 4% 76% C+ F C A+ B+ F A D- A- A+ A B A+ A+ 67% 14% 19% F A+ F+ F F A- F D+ F
0.91 60% 50% 19% -16 +1 0.71 31% 1.4 .43 22% .32 69% .22 0.89 46% 33% 0% -18 +3 0.71 29% 1.4 .42 17% .41 68% .28
Dec
17		 Santa Clara F+ D- B F F 61% 12% 27% A F B A+ A B+ A+ D+ A+ A+ B+ C A+ A+ 33% 20% 47% B A+ F+ F F A+ D A+ C+
0.89 52% 40% 9% -13 +3 0.80 34% 1.3 .45 18% .49 70% .34 0.93 53% 44% 24% -7 0 0.87 43% 1.6 .70 31% .28 62% .17
Dec
31		 Memphis F D+ C- F F 52% 13% 35% A F D- A C F F F F A+ D+ F A D+ 39% 24% 37% C C- C- B+ B- A+ D+ A+ A+
0.72 54% 33% 6% -17 +2 0.72 26% 1.1 .29 27% .17 63% .10 0.86 63% 50% 27% +1 0 1.02 38% 1.0 .38 30% .32 27% .09
Jan
4		 Tulsa B- C+ F B+ C 44% 27% 29% C- C- B- A+ A B+ A- B+ A B+ A D+ A A+ 51% 16% 33% C+ A+ C F F+ A+ F D F
1.16 60% 25% 38% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.4 .42 13% .33 78% .26 1.08 45% 43% 29% -8 +1 0.88 32% 1.6 .50 21% .51 84% .43
Jan
7		 South Florida C- B D- C+ C+ 46% 26% 28% B- B- C+ C+ C+ C B F F+ B C- A+ A B 50% 11% 39% C B- C F F A+ F C- F
1.02 61% 31% 36% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 19% .36 45% .16 1.08 58% 25% 27% -6 +2 0.95 39% 1.5 .58 25% .70 75% .53
Jan
11		 Wichita St. D+ F F B+ F 60% 25% 15% A F A- B- B+ C A B A C+ C F+ F F 52% 25% 23% D+ F D A- B- A+ F D- F
0.94 39% 29% 38% -13 +1 0.78 36% 1.0 .36 17% .37 73% .27 1.10 57% 45% 50% +6 0 1.16 43% 0.8 .36 25% .55 72% .40
Jan
18		 Tulane C F+ D B+ D+ 47% 13% 40% B+ C- A F D+ F A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ D+ A+ 25% 23% 52% A- A+ C+ C C+ B- F C+ F
1.06 48% 33% 39% -3 +2 1.00 44% 0.6 .28 22% .52 81% .42 0.94 36% 10% 35% -11 -1 0.77 21% 1.1 .24 16% .59 76% .44
Jan
21		 Texas San Antonio C C+ F B- C- 43% 12% 45% B- C A+ C A+ F+ A+ F A+ B A D B- C- 27% 27% 45% A C+ A A+ A+ A F F F
1.19 62% 17% 36% +1 +1 1.06 54% 1.1 .59 19% .47 62% .29 0.91 42% 42% 30% -6 -2 0.86 24% 0.5 .12 22% .45 83% .38
Jan
23		 East Carolina F D+ F F F 41% 26% 33% C- F C- C+ C- A+ C+ D- C C+ A+ A+ F C+ 33% 30% 38% B+ B- F F F A+ F D F
0.92 55% 21% 17% -14 -1 0.72 29% 1.2 .33 11% .28 69% .19 0.98 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 45% 1.2 .55 28% .50 74% .37
Jan
28		 Tulsa F+ F A+ F F 56% 12% 33% A F+ B F D- D+ A+ F B+ B- C+ B B- A- 56% 6% 38% F+ B C F D- B+ D+ F+ D-
0.93 48% 50% 24% -9 +2 0.88 30% 0.7 .21 17% .37 64% .24 1.16 56% 33% 33% -2 +3 1.04 31% 1.6 .48 18% .36 86% .31
Jan
31		 UAB D+ C+ C- F F+ 50% 23% 27% B- D- C- F D A+ A+ C A+ C F F C F 43% 23% 34% C F B+ F C A+ C- A+ B-
1.02 62% 33% 14% -7 +1 0.88 25% 0.7 .17 9% .38 74% .28 1.08 70% 45% 31% +5 0 1.13 27% 1.3 .33 18% .33 61% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Rice D A+ D F D- 31% 41% 28% F+ F+ B F D+ B B+ F C+ B- F A+ B+ B+ 13% 37% 50% A+ A- F C- F A+ F C F
1.03 79% 32% 18% -3 -3 0.90 37% 0.8 .29 14% .39 67% .26 1.07 71% 25% 30% -6 -4 0.81 51% 1.0 .49 27% .44 69% .31
Feb
7		 Texas San Antonio C+ A- F F D 48% 19% 33% C+ D+ A+ D- A- D- A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A- A+ C+ 41% 30% 28% B+ B- B- C B- A+ F B F+
1.16 70% 22% 25% -2 +1 1.00 53% 1.0 .50 19% .41 83% .33 0.83 63% 29% 15% -9 -1 0.83 27% 0.9 .24 26% .35 67% .23
Feb
12		 Memphis B D C+ F D+ 49% 21% 31% B C- A A+ A+ D+ A+ B A+ B- C A+ C B+ 36% 32% 32% A- B+ B- F D+ A- C+ F D
1.10 53% 38% 25% -7 +1 0.90 42% 1.2 .48 22% .76 76% .58 1.00 59% 20% 33% -6 -2 0.87 34% 1.3 .46 23% .28 87% .25
Feb
15		 Temple D+ D- F F F 60% 20% 20% A- F B- C- C+ A+ B B- B A F+ D F F 14% 33% 52% A+ D- D+ A+ B+ A+ C A+ A+
1.02 50% 30% 10% -14 +2 0.78 33% 1.0 .33 8% .34 75% .26 0.97 67% 43% 41% +8 -3 1.12 31% 0.7 .22 25% .36 53% .19
Feb
19		 Tulane C- F B F F 45% 33% 21% D F B+ A+ A+ C- A+ B- A+ F+ F A+ D+ D+ 38% 21% 42% C+ C- F D+ F C+ D- A- D+
1.08 42% 43% 22% -9 -1 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 18% .54 72% .39 1.17 72% 10% 35% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.2 .38 15% .43 71% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 6.4 3.7 10.1 4th
5th 1.2 11.6 0.3 13.1 5th
6th 9.0 3.5 12.5 6th
7th 0.3 16.1 0.2 16.6 7th
8th 4.5 6.9 11.4 8th
9th 0.4 14.2 0.7 15.2 9th
10th 0.1 7.2 7.5 0.0 14.8 10th
11th 1.3 2.8 0.1 4.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.5 10.4 26.6 33.9 21.8 5.8 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 5.8% 7.3% 7.3% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 5.4
10-8 21.8% 4.5% 4.5% 12.8 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 20.8
9-9 33.9% 1.8% 1.8% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 33.3
8-10 26.6% 1.1% 1.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 26.3
7-11 10.4% 1.0% 1.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.3
6-12 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 13.2 97.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.4 1.6 52.8 45.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%
Lose Out 0.7%