North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#79
Expected Predictive Rating+8.5#67
Pace55.5#362
Improvement-2.6#287

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#121
First Shot-0.4#185
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#54
Layup/Dunks-3.2#297
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#219
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#187
Freethrows+3.6#23
Improvement+0.5#161

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#50
First Shot+3.4#72
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#43
Layups/Dunks+6.2#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#113
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#254
Freethrows-2.3#323
Improvement-3.2#321
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.6% 32.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 11.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round25.5% 32.3% 0.0%
Second Round4.9% 6.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 23 - 23 - 5
Quad 311 - 115 - 7
Quad 48 - 123 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 246   Evansville W 80-63 91%     1 - 0 +9.7 +13.8 -2.6
  Nov 13, 2024 84   @ Minnesota W 54-51 42%     2 - 0 +12.2 -1.2 +14.1
  Nov 18, 2024 69   @ McNeese St. L 61-68 36%     2 - 1 +3.9 -1.3 +4.6
  Nov 25, 2024 88   Oregon St. W 58-55 66%     3 - 1 +6.1 -5.5 +12.2
  Nov 28, 2024 103   Northern Iowa W 68-48 62%     4 - 1 +24.1 +3.2 +22.5
  Nov 29, 2024 55   Utah St. L 57-61 37%     4 - 2 +6.8 -8.9 +15.2
  Dec 06, 2024 87   @ High Point L 71-76 45%     4 - 3 +3.6 -2.1 +5.7
  Dec 18, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-42 99.8%    5 - 3 +9.9 +10.2 +6.2
  Dec 20, 2024 178   Appalachian St. W 68-64 85%     6 - 3 +0.1 +13.6 -12.5
  Dec 22, 2024 285   Houston Christian W 62-46 94%     7 - 3 +6.1 +1.2 +9.0
  Dec 31, 2024 109   UAB W 78-75 73%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +4.0 +8.0 -3.8
  Jan 05, 2025 50   @ Memphis L 64-68 26%     8 - 4 1 - 1 +9.8 +4.2 +5.3
  Jan 08, 2025 192   Rice W 81-59 86%     9 - 4 2 - 1 +17.4 +24.2 -1.6
  Jan 14, 2025 164   @ East Carolina W 69-60 67%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +11.6 +7.8 +5.3
  Jan 18, 2025 182   @ Texas San Antonio W 72-57 71%     11 - 4 4 - 1 +16.4 +11.4 +7.7
  Jan 22, 2025 157   Temple W 76-67 82%     12 - 4 5 - 1 +6.5 +4.0 +3.1
  Jan 26, 2025 107   Florida Atlantic W 77-64 72%     13 - 4 6 - 1 +14.1 +14.5 +1.6
  Jan 29, 2025 127   @ Wichita St. W 58-54 60%     14 - 4 7 - 1 +8.7 +0.1 +9.4
  Feb 01, 2025 182   Texas San Antonio L 50-54 86%     14 - 5 7 - 2 -8.1 -17.4 +8.5
  Feb 03, 2025 109   @ UAB L 61-64 53%     14 - 6 7 - 3 +3.5 -7.9 +11.1
  Feb 08, 2025 141   Tulane W 76-66 80%     15 - 6 8 - 3 +8.3 +20.9 -10.1
  Feb 11, 2025 192   @ Rice W 67-61 73%     16 - 6 9 - 3 +6.9 +9.7 -1.4
  Feb 19, 2025 250   Tulsa W 63-44 91%     17 - 6 10 - 3 +11.4 -4.6 +18.5
  Feb 23, 2025 189   @ South Florida W 64-57 72%     18 - 6 11 - 3 +8.2 +0.7 +8.3
  Feb 27, 2025 107   @ Florida Atlantic W 71-61 53%     19 - 6 12 - 3 +16.6 +12.6 +5.8
  Mar 03, 2025 127   Wichita St. W 68-66 78%     20 - 6 13 - 3 +1.3 +7.4 -5.8
  Mar 06, 2025 242   Charlotte W 75-64 90%     21 - 6 14 - 3 +3.9 +9.1 -3.5
  Mar 09, 2025 157   @ Temple L 61-66 66%     21 - 7 14 - 4 -2.0 -3.3 +0.5
Projected Record 21 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 25.6% 25.5% 0.1% 11.9 3.0 21.9 0.7 74.4 0.1%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.6% 25.5% 0.1% 11.9 3.0 21.9 0.7 74.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 25.5% 100.0% 11.9 11.7 85.6 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 28.7% 0.2% 11.7 0.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 24.8% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1
Lose Out 21.0% 0.1% 11.0 0.1