Portland
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.0 #232
Expected Predictive Rating -2.5 #202
Pace 71.6 #103
Improvement -1.1 #236

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #243 C C+ D C C+
Defense #229 C C- C C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #96 1.22 #102 +3.1 #78
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #195 0.72 #225 -0.6 #210
Three Pointers 39% #233 0.91 #309 -3.3 #296
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #196 -0.8 #196
Freethrows 0.29 #209 72% #205 0.21 #208
Second Chance 30.7% #174 1.13 #59 0.35 #104
Turnovers 19.4% #331
Total Offense -2.6 #243

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #227 1.19 #228 +0.3 #164
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #261 0.59 #7 +2.5 #20
Three Pointers 45% #64 1.02 #189 -2.2 #283
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #156 +0.6 #156
Freethrows 0.30 #180 73% #248 0.22 #194
Second Chance 31.2% #207 1.09 #279 0.34 #249
Turnovers 16.8% #168
Total Defense -1.4 #229

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #145 0.5% #205
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.2% #213 -1.5% #151
Possession Length 16.9 #129 17.0 #148
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #251 0.19 #256
Improvement +0.9 #132 -1.9 #286

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 1.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.7% 4.2% 13.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Home) - 2.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 80 - 12
Quad 34 - 54 - 17
Quad 47 - 311 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83 - 74 82% +10  1 - 0 -5 -9 D+ F+ F +3 A- D A
 Sun, Nov 9 189 UC Davis W 67 - 63 54% -0  2 - 0 -1 -8 F+ D+ F +7 A+ F+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 111 @Wyoming L 56 - 93 16% -16  2 - 1 -30 -14 F D D+ -16 C F D
 Fri, Nov 21 224 Cal St. Fullerton W 103 - 85 60% +13  3 - 1 +12 +17 A+ A+ B -7 F A- C+
 Sat, Nov 22 190 Northern Colorado L 80 - 86 OT 54% -2  3 - 2 -11 -8 D- A+ F -3 B D D
 Sun, Nov 23 133 St. Thomas L 66 - 76 40% -5  3 - 3 -11 -10 C B+ F -1 B+ F+ D
 Wed, Nov 26 255 Long Beach St. W 93 - 73 66% +11  4 - 3 +12 +14 A+ C F -2 B- C B-
 Mon, Dec 1 86 @Stanford L 72 - 94 11% -14  4 - 4 -13 +5 A- B- F -17 D F D-
 Sun, Dec 14 145 Kent St. W 88 - 78 42% +0  5 - 4 +8 +1 B+ D+ F+ +5 A- D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 82 @Oregon L 69 - 94 10% -11  5 - 5 -15 -7 D+ C F -5 F B- B
 Mon, Dec 22 130 @UC Santa Barbara L 61 - 79 20% -11  5 - 6 -13 -6 F A+ F+ -9 F D B
 Sun, Dec 28 122 Washington St. L 62 - 67 37% -3  5 - 7 0 - 1 -5 -12 F A- A+ +6 A+ A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 46 Santa Clara L 85 - 92 12% -1  5 - 8 0 - 2 +2 +14 A+ A C -12 F+ B+ B+
 Fri, Jan 2 42 @St. Mary's L 57 - 78 5% -14  5 - 9 0 - 3 -6 -3 F+ C C+ -6 D- B C
 Sun, Jan 4 97 @San Francisco L 68 - 73 13% +4  5 - 10 0 - 4 +3 +1 B F F +2 A+ C C-
 Thu, Jan 8 125 Pacific W 90 - 89 OT 37% +4  6 - 10 1 - 4 +0 +12 B+ A+ F+ -12 C C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 184 Oregon St. W 82 - 76 52% -2  7 - 10 2 - 4 +1 +12 C A- A -10 C- B- F+
 Wed, Jan 14 283 @Pepperdine L 63 - 67 50% -0  7 - 11 2 - 5 -8 -7 F+ D- C- -1 C F C
 Sat, Jan 17 170 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 58 27% +11  8 - 11 3 - 5 +15 +2 B- D+ C- +13 A+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 24 42 St. Mary's L 69 - 75 12% -4  8 - 12 3 - 6 +3 +6 C+ B B- -4 D+ A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 28 125 @Pacific L 51 - 74 19% -15  8 - 13 3 - 7 -18 -14 F F F -5 C+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 31 122 @Washington St. L 74 - 104 18% -15  8 - 14 3 - 8 -24 +0 D- A+ B -24 F F F
 Wed, Feb 4 11 Gonzaga L 67 - 88 3%
 Sat, Feb 7 124 Seattle L 68 - 71 38%
 Wed, Feb 11 202 @San Diego L 77 - 81 34%
 Wed, Feb 18 283 Pepperdine W 75 - 69 71%
 Sat, Feb 21 124 @Seattle L 65 - 74 19%
 Wed, Feb 25 11 @Gonzaga L 64 - 91 1%
 Sat, Feb 28 202 San Diego W 80 - 78 56%
Totals 10 - 19 5 - 13 -4 -3 C C+ D -1 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 0.8 1.4 6th
7th 0.3 3.8 0.6 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 4.1 5.4 0.1 9.6 8th
9th 2.4 14.4 1.1 17.9 9th
10th 0.2 5.7 20.2 7.5 0.0 33.7 10th
11th 2.9 14.4 10.7 0.4 28.4 11th
12th 2.3 1.6 0.1 4.0 12th
Total 5.4 21.7 33.5 26.7 10.9 1.8 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 1.8% 1.8
7-11 10.9% 10.9
6-12 26.7% 26.7
5-13 33.5% 33.5
4-14 21.7% 21.7
3-15 5.4% 5.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.4%