Portland
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.3 #238
Expected Predictive Rating -2.9 #220
Pace 72.2 #91
Improvement +0.0 #184

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #247 C B- F D- C+
Defense #229 C+ C C C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #59 1.26 #79 +5.1 #34
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #179 0.74 #192 -0.2 #188
Three Pointers 36% #284 0.89 #308 -4.6 #316
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #174 +0.3 #173
Freethrows 14.3 #323 72% #209 10.2 #315
Second Chance 31.2% #167 1.15 #73 0.36 #102
Turnovers 20.0% #344
Total Offense -2.6 #247

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #249 1.17 #191 +1.1 #138
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #284 0.56 #6 +2.9 #9
Three Pointers 47% #41 1.01 #173 -2.7 #293
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #138 +1.3 #138
Freethrows 17.1 #172 74% #244 12.6 #168
Second Chance 31.9% #228 1.05 #201 0.33 #216
Turnovers 17.1% #151
Total Defense -1.7 #229

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #134 0.6% #219
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.3% #177 -3.0% #124
Possession Length 16.5 #113 17.5 #232
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #182 0.19 #260
Improvement +2.3 #49 -2.3 #316

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 n/a
.500 or above 0.7% 1.2% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 2.2% 3.7% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 29.6% 19.8% 40.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Home) - 51.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 60 - 10
Quad 33 - 64 - 17
Quad 46 - 310 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83 - 74 81%  +14  1 - 0 -4 -10 D- F F +5 A+ D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 171 UC Davis W 67 - 63 49%  -0  2 - 0 -0 -8 F C- F +9 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 95 @Wyoming L 56 - 93 12%  -16  2 - 1 -28 -13 F F C -15 C F D-
 Fri, Nov 21 232 Cal St. Fullerton W 103 - 85 60%  +13  3 - 1 +11 +15 A+ A+ B- -6 F A B+
 Sat, Nov 22 161 Northern Colorado L 80 - 86 OT 46%  -2  3 - 2 -9 -6 D- A+ F -2 B+ D+ D-
 Sun, Nov 23 135 St. Thomas L 66 - 76 39%  -5  3 - 3 -11 -10 C B+ F -1 A F D
 Wed, Nov 26 262 Long Beach St. W 93 - 73 67%  +11  4 - 3 +11 +13 A+ C F -2 B- C B+
 Mon, Dec 1 79 @Stanford L 72 - 94 9%  -14  4 - 4 -11 +5 A+ B F -17 D- F F
 Sun, Dec 14 138 Kent St. W 88 - 78 40%  +0  5 - 4 +8 +0 B- D+ F +7 A+ D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 65 @Oregon L 69 - 94 7%  -11  5 - 5 -13 -6 C- C+ F -4 F A- B
 Mon, Dec 22 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 61 - 79 29%  -11  5 - 6 -16 -8 F A+ F -10 F D B
 Sun, Dec 28 145 Washington St. L 62 - 67 42%  -3  5 - 7 0 - 1 -7 -10 F A+ A+ +3 B+ A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 30 61 Santa Clara L 85 - 92 17%  -1  5 - 8 0 - 2 -1 +12 A+ A- C -13 F A A
 Fri, Jan 2 41 @St. Mary's L 57 - 78 4%  -14  5 - 9 0 - 3 -6 -3 F C- C+ -4 D- A+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 100 @San Francisco L 68 - 73 13%  +4  5 - 10 0 - 4 +3 +2 A- F F +1 A+ D+ C
 Thu, Jan 8 144 Pacific W 90 - 89 OT 42%  +4  6 - 10 1 - 4 -1 +11 A- A+ F -12 B- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 182 Oregon St. W 73 - 72 51% 
 Wed, Jan 14 274 @Pepperdine L 71 - 72 47% 
 Sat, Jan 17 122 @Loyola Marymount L 67 - 77 19% 
 Sat, Jan 24 41 St. Mary's L 66 - 80 10% 
 Wed, Jan 28 144 @Pacific L 70 - 78 22% 
 Sat, Jan 31 145 @Washington St. L 71 - 79 22% 
 Wed, Feb 4 10 Gonzaga L 69 - 91 2% 
 Sat, Feb 7 120 Seattle L 70 - 74 36% 
 Wed, Feb 11 222 @San Diego L 76 - 80 35% 
 Wed, Feb 18 274 Pepperdine W 74 - 69 69% 
 Sat, Feb 21 120 @Seattle L 67 - 77 18% 
 Wed, Feb 25 10 @Gonzaga L 66 - 94 1% 
 Sat, Feb 28 222 San Diego W 79 - 77 57% 
Totals 10 - 19 5 - 13 -4 -3 C B- F -2 C+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.3 3.0 1.9 0.1 5.4 7th
8th 0.1 3.0 4.7 0.5 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.8 8.4 2.2 0.1 13.5 9th
10th 0.2 3.6 11.0 5.5 0.2 20.5 10th
11th 0.7 6.9 13.8 8.2 0.6 0.0 30.2 11th
12th 1.3 5.1 7.2 3.4 0.3 0.0 17.2 12th
Total 1.3 5.9 14.2 20.8 22.4 17.9 10.7 4.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.4% 0.4
9-9 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 1.7
8-10 4.7% 4.7
7-11 10.7% 10.7
6-12 17.9% 17.9
5-13 22.4% 22.4
4-14 20.8% 20.8
3-15 14.2% 14.2
2-16 5.9% 5.9
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%