Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.8 #66
Expected Predictive Rating +6.0 #87
Pace 77.6 #23
Improvement +4.3 #18

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #37 A- B B B B-
Defense #128 B- C+ C- B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #153 1.30 #50 +3.3 #78
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #293 0.74 #191 -2.1 #281
Three Pointers 46% #96 1.13 #38 +5.2 #36
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #36 +6.4 #36
Freethrows 18.5 #123 78% #39 14.4 #79
Second Chance 32.6% #128 1.18 #42 0.39 #65
Turnovers 14.6% #63
Total Offense +7.7 #37

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #269 0.99 #22 +4.8 #43
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #96 0.67 #75 -0.1 #187
Three Pointers 41% #172 1.13 #318 -2.5 #284
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #105 +2.3 #105
Freethrows 15.5 #91 74% #236 11.4 #259
Second Chance 30.5% #166 0.99 #116 0.30 #141
Turnovers 15.8% #226
Total Defense +1.1 #128

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #82 -1.1% #85
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.8% #39 -3.3% #117
Possession Length 14.8 #18 17.9 #278
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #21 0.14 #67
Improvement +2.3 #50 +2.0 #68

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 14.1% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.7% 12.5% 4.7%
Average Seed 9.9 9.8 10.2
.500 or above 57.0% 70.4% 42.4%
.500 or above in Conference 38.2% 51.0% 24.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.3% 1.9% 9.0%
First Four3.8% 5.1% 2.3%
First Round8.0% 11.2% 4.4%
Second Round3.1% 4.5% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 52.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 53 - 9
Quad 24 - 66 - 15
Quad 35 - 111 - 16
Quad 45 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 326 Holy Cross W 89 - 79 97%  +10  1 - 0 -3 +1 D B- B -5 D- A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 68 Virginia Tech L 101 - 107 OT 50%  -0  1 - 1 +3 +11 B B+ B -7 D+ D+ D
 Tue, Nov 11 216 Penn W 106 - 81 91%  +10  2 - 1 +19 +17 A+ A+ F -1 A+ B F
 Fri, Nov 14 77 @Colorado L 88 - 97 43%  -4  2 - 2 +2 +8 C D A- -5 B F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 344 New Hampshire W 98 - 66 98%  +13  3 - 2 +17 +21 A+ D+ A -4 B F C
 Sat, Nov 22 105 Penn St. W 77 - 65 66%  +3  4 - 2 +16 +5 F A- A+ +11 A+ A- B
 Thu, Nov 27 43 Wisconsin L 83 - 104 39%  -14  4 - 3 -9 +4 B+ B C -10 C D+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 12 Florida L 78 - 90 18%  -9  4 - 4 +6 +11 A+ D+ B- -4 A C- F
 Tue, Dec 2 349 Fairleigh Dickinson W 94 - 64 98%  +23  5 - 4 +14 +19 A+ A C -3 C+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 141 Rhode Island W 90 - 71 84%  +5  6 - 4 +17 +18 A+ B+ C -1 F A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 9 247 Brown W 86 - 79 93%  +6  7 - 4 -1 +7 B C- D+ -8 C C F
 Sat, Dec 13 57 @Butler L 110 - 113 2OT 37%  +0  7 - 5 0 - 1 +9 +22 A+ B+ A+ -12 C B- F
 Fri, Dec 19 53 Seton Hall L 67 - 72 57%  -3  7 - 6 0 - 2 +2 +2 C F A+ -0 C B A-
 Sat, Jan 3 21 @St. John's W 77 - 71 16%  -4  8 - 6 1 - 2 +25 +9 D A+ A+ +16 A+ B- B
 Wed, Jan 7 5 Connecticut L 98 - 103 OT 18%  +5  8 - 7 1 - 3 +14 +20 A+ A+ D -6 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 97 @Xavier W 84 - 83 52% 
 Tue, Jan 13 31 Villanova L 76 - 78 41% 
 Fri, Jan 16 37 Creighton L 81 - 82 45% 
 Mon, Jan 19 110 @Marquette W 83 - 82 56% 
 Sat, Jan 24 103 Georgetown W 86 - 79 74% 
 Tue, Jan 27 5 @Connecticut L 70 - 86 7% 
 Fri, Jan 30 31 @Villanova L 73 - 81 22% 
 Wed, Feb 4 57 Butler W 87 - 85 59% 
 Sat, Feb 7 102 DePaul W 81 - 74 74% 
 Wed, Feb 11 53 @Seton Hall L 73 - 77 35% 
 Sat, Feb 14 21 St. John's L 82 - 86 34% 
 Sat, Feb 21 102 @DePaul W 78 - 77 53% 
 Tue, Feb 24 97 Xavier W 87 - 80 73% 
 Sat, Feb 28 37 @Creighton L 78 - 85 25% 
 Wed, Mar 4 110 Marquette W 86 - 79 75% 
 Sat, Mar 7 103 @Georgetown W 83 - 82 53% 
Totals 16 - 15 9 - 11 +9 +8 A- B B +1 B- C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 4.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.2 3.4 1.0 0.1 8.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 6.1 5.5 1.7 0.1 16.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.6 8.9 6.9 2.1 0.1 23.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.6 8.4 5.3 1.1 0.1 20.1 7th
8th 0.3 2.7 5.4 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.7 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 3.6 1.9 0.1 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.4 0.1 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.8 8.4 12.6 16.2 17.0 15.1 11.4 6.7 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 47.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 8.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.4% 90.1% 11.3% 78.9% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 88.9%
14-6 1.3% 80.5% 10.3% 70.1% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 78.2%
13-7 3.1% 63.3% 4.3% 59.0% 9.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 1.2 61.6%
12-8 6.7% 43.2% 3.3% 39.9% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.0 3.8 41.2%
11-9 11.4% 19.4% 2.5% 16.9% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.1 9.2 17.3%
10-10 15.1% 6.7% 1.8% 4.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 14.1 5.0%
9-11 17.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 16.8 0.7%
8-12 16.2% 0.6% 0.6% 11.4 0.1 0.0 16.1
7-13 12.6% 0.4% 0.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.6
6-14 8.4% 0.2% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 8.4
5-15 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 4.8
4-16 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-17 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 10.1% 1.4% 8.6% 9.9 89.9 8.7%