Providence
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#75
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#113
Pace63.0#324
Improvement+2.0#70

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#116
First Shot+0.4#165
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#66
Layup/Dunks-2.1#253
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#53
Freethrows+0.3#162
Improvement+2.8#29

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#48
First Shot+2.6#101
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#21
Layups/Dunks-0.1#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#16
Freethrows-0.7#242
Improvement-0.8#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 12.4% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.4% 9.8% 3.2%
Average Seed 9.9 9.6 10.3
.500 or above 35.0% 51.2% 27.0%
.500 or above in Conference 32.6% 48.7% 24.8%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 3.2% 8.9%
First Four2.2% 3.5% 1.6%
First Round6.0% 10.6% 3.8%
Second Round2.4% 4.5% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marquette (Home) - 33.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 52 - 10
Quad 25 - 67 - 16
Quad 33 - 210 - 18
Quad 45 - 015 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 219   Central Connecticut St. W 59-55 89%     1 - 0 -2.1 -7.9 +6.2
  Nov 09, 2024 323   Stonehill W 76-49 96%     2 - 0 +14.9 -5.8 +19.9
  Nov 12, 2024 248   Hampton W 60-51 92%     3 - 0 +1.2 -6.8 +9.5
  Nov 16, 2024 329   Green Bay W 79-65 96%     4 - 0 +1.4 +1.4 +0.6
  Nov 19, 2024 327   Delaware St. W 78-48 96%     5 - 0 +17.6 +12.3 +10.2
  Nov 27, 2024 35   Oklahoma L 77-79 32%     5 - 1 +10.3 +8.9 +1.5
  Nov 28, 2024 122   Davidson L 58-69 69%     5 - 2 -8.5 -6.7 -3.3
  Nov 29, 2024 51   Indiana L 73-89 39%     5 - 3 -5.5 +9.1 -15.5
  Dec 03, 2024 42   BYU W 83-64 46%     6 - 3 +27.4 +23.8 +6.2
  Dec 07, 2024 93   @ Rhode Island L 63-69 46%     6 - 4 +2.5 -4.0 +6.3
  Dec 10, 2024 102   @ DePaul W 70-63 OT 49%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +14.7 -4.4 +18.6
  Dec 14, 2024 87   St. Bonaventure L 70-74 54%     7 - 5 +2.4 +11.6 -9.7
  Dec 20, 2024 15   St. John's L 70-72 31%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +10.6 +1.8 +8.9
  Dec 31, 2024 17   Marquette L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 05, 2025 10   @ Connecticut L 63-75 13%    
  Jan 08, 2025 68   Butler W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 115   Seton Hall W 63-55 76%    
  Jan 14, 2025 46   @ Creighton L 66-72 28%    
  Jan 17, 2025 52   @ Villanova L 65-71 29%    
  Jan 25, 2025 67   Georgetown W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 28, 2025 115   @ Seton Hall W 60-58 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 15   @ St. John's L 64-75 15%    
  Feb 05, 2025 46   Creighton L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 68   @ Butler L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 12, 2025 49   Xavier W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 52   Villanova W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 19, 2025 67   @ Georgetown L 66-69 38%    
  Feb 25, 2025 17   @ Marquette L 64-75 17%    
  Mar 01, 2025 10   Connecticut L 66-72 29%    
  Mar 05, 2025 102   DePaul W 72-66 70%    
  Mar 08, 2025 49   @ Xavier L 67-73 30%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.7 3.9 1.0 0.1 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.7 4.9 1.2 0.1 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.0 6.3 5.7 1.5 0.1 15.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.4 5.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 16.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.6 4.8 1.2 0.1 14.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.5 2.6 0.6 0.0 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.7 6.9 10.8 13.9 15.2 15.0 12.5 8.9 5.8 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 88.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 63.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 35.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.2% 94.4% 14.4% 80.0% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.5%
15-5 0.6% 91.8% 16.0% 75.9% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 90.3%
14-6 1.5% 73.4% 11.2% 62.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 70.1%
13-7 3.1% 50.7% 6.9% 43.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.5 47.0%
12-8 5.8% 28.5% 5.1% 23.5% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.0 4.2 24.7%
11-9 8.9% 11.9% 3.5% 8.4% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 7.9 8.7%
10-10 12.5% 4.4% 2.6% 1.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 11.9 1.8%
9-11 15.0% 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 14.7 0.0%
8-12 15.2% 0.7% 0.7% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 15.1
7-13 13.9% 0.5% 0.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9
6-14 10.8% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 10.8
5-15 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 6.9
4-16 3.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.7
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 7.2% 1.9% 5.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 92.8 5.4%