Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.9 61
Results Rating +6.2 90
Pace 77.2 18
Improvement +2.0 107

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 26 B+ A- B B+ B-
Defense C 161 C+ B- D B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 123 A- 67% 27 +4.7 32
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 293 B- 41% 74 -1.7 270
Three Pointers 45% 108 B- 36% 78 +3.6 65
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 71 B+ +5.5 32
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.15 28
Second Chance B 35.3% 52 B+ 1.17 31 A- 0.41 28
Turnovers B 15.0% 74
Freethrows B 0.35 54 B+ 77% 31 B+ 0.27 34
Total Offense A- +8.8 26

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 167 B 8.1% 41
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 235 D+ 6.8% 287
Three Pointers C- 81% 252 B- 0.6% 117
Total C 56% 176 B 4.6% 66

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 234 B 52% 51 -3.0 82
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 74 C+ 37% 132 +1.1 274
Three Pointers 39% 235 D+ 36% 254 +0.1 183
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 82 C+ -1.3 126
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.98 117
Second Chance B- 28.4% 100 C+ 0.99 109 B- 0.28 83
Turnovers D 14.6% 313
Freethrows B- 0.28 92 B- 71% 100 B- 0.20 82
Total Defense C +0.1 161

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 142 B- 14.2% 63
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 190 D+ 3.2% 280
Three Pointers B+ 77% 32 D+ 0.4% 299
Total B- 52% 109 C+ 6.1% 136

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.3 25 17.5 228
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 23 0.16 146
Improvement +1.3 #119 +0.7 #142

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 80 63 51
Results Rating Rank 103 85 66
Conference Record 6 - 14 7 - 13 9 - 11
Conference Finish 10 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.1 13.5
.500 or above 13% 18% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 14% 7% 30%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Xavier (Home) - 68.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 51 - 9
Quad 23 - 74 - 16
Quad 36 - 210 - 18
Quad 45 - 015 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 327 Holy Cross W 89 - 79 97% +10  84% 1 - 0 C- -4 D+ -3 D+ C C+ C- -2 D A C
 Sat, Nov 8 57 Virginia Tech L 101 - 107 OT 46% -0  37% 1 - 1 C+ +4 B+ +9 C+ B+ B D+ -3 C- C- D
 Tue, Nov 11 169 Penn W 106 - 81 87% +10  93% 2 - 1 A +21 A+ +18 A+ A+ D- C+ +1 A C F+
 Fri, Nov 14 66 @Colorado L 88 - 97 40% -4  1% 2 - 2 C+ +3 B +6 C+ C- A C- -3 B- F C
 Tue, Nov 18 346 New Hampshire W 98 - 66 98% +13  95% 3 - 2 A- +16 A+ +18 A+ C- B+ C- -2 B F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 115 Penn St. W 77 - 65 71% +3  68% 4 - 2 A- +15 C +0 F B+ A+ A+ +15 A+ B C+
 Thu, Nov 27 30 Wisconsin L 83 - 104 28% -14  0% 4 - 3 D+ -6 C +1 B B C- D+ -4 C+ C D
 Fri, Nov 28 4 Florida L 78 - 90 9% -9  1% 4 - 4 B+ +12 A +11 A D+ A- C+ +1 A C- F
 Tue, Dec 2 333 Fairleigh Dickinson W 94 - 64 97% +23  99% 5 - 4 A- +16 A+ +17 A+ B+ C C+ +0 C- C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 124 Rhode Island W 90 - 71 81% +5  72% 6 - 4 A +19 A+ +17 A+ A- C B- +2 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 9 267 Brown W 86 - 79 94% +6  94% 7 - 4 C- -2 C+ +3 C+ C+ C- D -6 C C+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 75 @Butler L 110 - 113 2OT 43% +0  42% 7 - 5 0 - 1 B- +8 A+ +18 A- B A+ F+ -10 C- D+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 54 Seton Hall L 67 - 72 58% -3  10% 7 - 6 0 - 2 C+ +2 C +1 C+ D- A C+ +1 C B- B
 Sat, Jan 3 19 @St. John's W 77 - 71 13% -5  8% 8 - 6 1 - 2 A+ +27 B+ +8 D- A+ A+ A+ +19 A+ B- B
 Wed, Jan 7 9 Connecticut L 98 - 103 OT 22% +5  79% 8 - 7 1 - 3 B+ +12 A+ +16 A+ A+ C- C- -3 D- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 84 @Xavier L 84 - 97 46% -11  1% 8 - 8 1 - 4 C- -3 C+ +2 C C+ A+ D+ -4 D+ B+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 35 Villanova L 82 - 88 40% -7  6% 8 - 9 1 - 5 B- +5 A +12 A+ A B D- -7 F A C
 Fri, Jan 16 63 Creighton W 93 - 88 62% +1  53% 9 - 9 2 - 5 B +11 A- +11 C A+ B C -1 A F D+
 Mon, Jan 19 88 @Marquette L 104 - 105 OT 48% -3  15% 9 - 10 2 - 6 B +8 A+ +19 A+ A+ C F -10 D F F
 Sat, Jan 24 71 Georgetown L 78 - 81 65% +9  86% 9 - 11 2 - 7 C+ +2 A +11 B+ B A F+ -10 F A- D-
 Tue, Jan 27 9 @Connecticut L 81 - 87 10% -4  6% 9 - 12 2 - 8 A- +17 A+ +15 A A A B- +3 B B+ D
 Fri, Jan 30 35 @Villanova L 73 - 87 21% -10  5% 9 - 13 2 - 9 C+ +3 B +7 A- C C D+ -4 D- A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 75 Butler W 97 - 87 2OT 66% -0  37% 10 - 13 3 - 9 A- +15 A- +11 A- B- A B- +2 B- A- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 93 DePaul W 90 - 72 72% +14  98% 11 - 13 4 - 9 A +21 A+ +17 A+ A+ D B +4 B+ C- D-
 Wed, Feb 11 54 @Seton Hall L 80 - 87 35% +1  59% 11 - 14 4 - 10 B- +6 A+ +18 A+ B- D- F -13 D- C F
 Sat, Feb 14 19 St. John's L 69 - 79 27% -7  7% 11 - 15 4 - 11 B- +5 D+ -3 F+ C B+ A +9 A+ A- F
 Sat, Feb 21 93 @DePaul W 71 - 68 50% +3  74% 12 - 15 5 - 11 B+ +12 B +6 B A+ F B+ +6 A- A- F
 Tue, Feb 24 84 Xavier W 90 - 85 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 63 @Creighton L 83 - 86 40%
 Wed, Mar 4 88 Marquette W 88 - 83 70%
 Sat, Mar 7 71 @Georgetown L 81 - 83 42%
Totals 14 - 17 7 - 13 +9 A- +9 C- B+ B- C +0 B- B+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- A- B- B- B+ 40% 28% 45% B- B+ B B+ A- B B B+ B+ C B C+ D+ C+ 37% 24% 39% B- C+ B- C+ B- D B- B- B-
1.21 67% 41% 36% +5 +1 1.15 35% 1.2 .41 15% .35 77% .27 1.08 52% 37% 36% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.0 .28 15% .28 71% .25
Nov
3		 Holy Cross D+ A+ F+ F D+ 41% 17% 43% C+ D+ D- A+ C C+ A+ C+ A+ C- D- D+ C- D- 24% 27% 49% B- D C A+ A C D- A C-
1.14 82% 33% 22% +1 +1 1.06 22% 1.5 .33 13% .40 74% .29 1.01 64% 44% 34% +3 -2 1.05 21% 0.4 .09 17% .32 67% .22
Nov
8		 Virginia Tech B+ C- B+ C B- 32% 26% 41% D+ C+ C- A+ B+ B A+ A+ A+ D+ D+ C- F+ D+ 38% 26% 36% B C- B+ F C- D B- B+ B
1.13 55% 44% 32% -1 -1 0.99 29% 1.3 .38 16% .33 88% .29 1.20 65% 39% 40% +6 -1 1.13 28% 1.4 .40 12% .28 68% .19
Nov
11		 Penn A+ A F A+ A+ 43% 16% 41% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F A 23% 36% 41% A+ A B+ F C F+ D+ F D-
1.34 71% 22% 48% +11 +1 1.27 44% 1.4 .59 19% .36 91% .33 1.02 29% 23% 44% -6 -3 0.84 26% 1.2 .30 13% .35 79% .27
Nov
14		 Colorado B A- C+ F C 43% 17% 40% B+ C+ D B- C- A A+ B+ A+ C- B- D+ C+ B+ 60% 13% 27% F B- C- F F C F+ F F
1.11 65% 40% 25% -2 +1 1.00 23% 1.1 .25 13% .45 77% .35 1.22 58% 43% 33% 0 +3 1.07 34% 1.3 .43 14% .40 85% .34
Nov
18		 New Hampshire A+ A+ D- A+ A+ 54% 5% 41% A+ A+ A F C- B+ B- F D+ C- F B A+ B- 29% 25% 46% A+ B F F F B- A+ F B
1.41 73% 33% 43% +14 +3 1.36 41% 0.7 .29 12% .36 64% .23 0.95 67% 31% 21% -8 -1 0.83 35% 1.2 .43 20% .16 89% .14
Nov
22		 Penn St. C C- A+ F F 40% 7% 53% A- F B B B+ A+ A B A A+ A+ D D A+ 40% 25% 36% B+ A+ D A+ B C+ B+ F+ B-
1.10 57% 50% 19% -12 +2 0.83 33% 1.4 .45 10% .30 79% .24 0.92 24% 46% 37% -10 0 0.81 33% 0.9 .30 16% .27 81% .22
Nov
27		 Wisconsin C F+ A+ A- B 38% 21% 41% B B D A+ B C- D A C- D+ D+ F+ C C+ 36% 9% 55% C- C+ C- C+ C D C+ A+ B
1.02 46% 54% 38% +1 0 1.05 19% 1.6 .31 17% .22 80% .18 1.27 65% 50% 34% +4 +1 1.13 33% 1.1 .37 10% .33 67% .22
Nov
28		 Florida A C- A- A+ A+ 38% 35% 27% C- A B- F D+ A- A+ A A+ C+ C A+ B- A 28% 21% 51% A+ A A+ F C- F D- F F
1.06 50% 44% 43% +3 -2 1.04 24% 0.4 .11 14% .41 77% .31 1.22 63% 25% 31% -4 -1 0.93 32% 1.5 .49 11% .41 81% .34
Dec
2		 Fairleigh Dickinson A+ B B- A+ A+ 40% 13% 46% B A+ A C+ B+ C F A+ F C+ A+ A+ F C+ 42% 12% 46% F C- F A+ C A+ B F C
1.43 67% 43% 58% +21 +1 1.46 38% 1.0 .38 15% .20 82% .16 0.97 29% 17% 48% -5 +1 0.94 46% 0.6 .29 27% .23 82% .19
Dec
6		 Rhode Island A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 13% 55% C A+ C+ A+ A- C C- B C B- A- A F F 32% 14% 54% C+ F B+ A+ A+ A A A+ A+
1.29 80% 50% 50% +22 +1 1.47 33% 1.3 .42 21% .35 74% .26 1.02 50% 29% 52% +11 0 1.24 28% 0.4 .11 24% .26 50% .13
Dec
9		 Brown C+ B+ F C C+ 42% 15% 44% B C+ B- C- C+ C- C A+ B D B+ A D- C 47% 21% 33% C C A F C+ F D D- D-
1.13 65% 25% 33% +1 +1 1.05 34% 0.9 .32 18% .34 86% .29 1.04 48% 25% 37% -6 +1 0.91 21% 1.4 .28 13% .30 75% .23
Dec
13		 Butler A+ C+ A- A A- 39% 16% 46% B- A- A D+ B A+ C+ A B- F+ D- A+ C C 48% 15% 37% C- C- F B D+ F F C F
1.28 59% 45% 41% +6 +1 1.16 37% 0.9 .33 10% .23 78% .18 1.32 67% 22% 35% +2 +2 1.10 43% 1.0 .43 8% .48 71% .34
Dec
19		 Seton Hall C B+ C- F C- 44% 7% 49% A C+ F D+ D- A A+ A+ A+ C+ B D+ C- C 46% 22% 33% C C B C B- B F A F+
0.96 60% 33% 23% -8 +2 0.91 20% 0.8 .17 19% .53 80% .42 1.04 52% 40% 33% -3 0 0.98 32% 1.0 .32 19% .48 63% .30
Jan
3		 St. John's B+ D+ F F F+ 52% 19% 29% B+ D- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 40% 18% 42% B A+ F A+ B- B F A F
1.03 48% 10% 27% -14 +1 0.77 37% 1.5 .56 16% .44 75% .33 0.95 32% 40% 17% -21 0 0.62 46% 0.9 .41 16% .59 65% .38
Jan
7		 Connecticut A+ C D- A+ A+ 44% 18% 39% B A+ B A+ A+ C- A B- A C- B+ B+ F F 29% 26% 45% A+ D- A+ B+ A+ D+ B+ F C+
1.19 52% 30% 55% +8 +1 1.19 30% 1.3 .39 21% .41 74% .30 1.25 56% 38% 57% +15 -1 1.29 27% 1.0 .27 15% .25 83% .21
Jan
10		 Xavier C+ A B F C 33% 22% 44% C C D- A+ C+ A+ C+ D+ C D+ B- D+ F C- 38% 20% 42% D- D+ A+ F B+ F B+ C B+
1.05 71% 43% 25% 0 -1 1.00 20% 1.3 .25 11% .30 67% .20 1.21 58% 43% 41% +5 0 1.13 15% 1.3 .21 5% .20 73% .14
Jan
13		 Villanova A A+ A+ F A+ 41% 16% 43% A- A+ D+ A+ A B A- C+ A- D- F D+ F F 31% 24% 45% A- F F+ A+ A C C F+ D+
1.18 90% 50% 24% +8 +1 1.20 26% 1.6 .41 19% .30 71% .21 1.27 81% 42% 43% +15 -1 1.29 41% 0.6 .26 14% .30 78% .24
Jan
16		 Creighton A- B A+ F D+ 48% 14% 38% A+ C A+ A A+ B A+ C+ A+ C C+ A+ C+ A+ 35% 18% 47% C A F+ D- F D+ F F F
1.22 63% 50% 19% -4 +2 0.96 45% 1.3 .57 13% .53 71% .38 1.15 60% 10% 33% -5 0 0.93 34% 1.1 .39 13% .44 83% .36
Jan
19		 Marquette A+ B C+ A+ A+ 46% 15% 38% B A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ F F D- A+ D- 56% 15% 30% C+ D C F F F F A- D-
1.28 63% 38% 45% +8 +1 1.21 45% 1.2 .55 21% .51 88% .45 1.29 74% 44% 22% +4 +2 1.15 32% 1.3 .41 7% .40 63% .25
Jan
24		 Georgetown A B+ F A- B 44% 19% 38% A- B+ B+ C B A A A+ A+ F+ F+ F C- F 33% 25% 42% B F B+ B A- D- A+ B- A+
1.21 62% 22% 39% +1 +1 1.06 35% 1.0 .35 12% .37 86% .32 1.25 67% 64% 35% +10 -1 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 11% .19 73% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Connecticut A+ C- A+ B+ A- 57% 13% 30% A+ A B- A+ A A A+ A- A+ B- C- A+ F+ B 39% 22% 39% B+ B C A B+ D F A F
1.12 50% 50% 36% -2 +2 1.02 29% 1.2 .35 15% .51 77% .39 1.21 65% 27% 40% +4 0 1.10 37% 0.9 .34 14% .45 64% .29
Jan
30		 Villanova B C+ A+ B- A- 34% 26% 40% C A- B D C C B- D- C D+ C F F F 30% 19% 52% B D- A+ C+ A+ F D A C-
1.06 59% 54% 35% +5 -1 1.10 34% 0.8 .28 20% .26 64% .16 1.27 63% 60% 43% +12 0 1.26 15% 1.0 .15 7% .35 64% .22
Feb
4		 Butler A- A+ A- C+ A 33% 20% 47% C A- A+ F+ B- A A+ D A+ B- A F C+ B- 47% 21% 32% B- B- A C+ A- D+ F B F
1.23 72% 45% 35% +7 0 1.15 40% 0.8 .30 13% .57 67% .38 1.10 48% 58% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 1.1 .31 13% .49 68% .33
Feb
7		 DePaul A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 20% 35% B+ A+ A+ A A+ D A+ F B+ B C+ F A+ A- 48% 17% 34% F+ B+ C- C C- D- A+ B+ A+
1.26 62% 78% 44% +15 +1 1.33 46% 1.2 .54 22% .45 60% .27 1.01 57% 50% 20% -6 +1 0.93 33% 1.1 .37 14% .18 64% .11
Feb
11		 Seton Hall A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 10% 67% C+ A+ B C B- D- C- A+ A F A+ F C- F 40% 31% 29% A- D- A+ F C F D- D- F+
1.17 60% 75% 46% +16 0 1.36 35% 0.9 .31 26% .34 94% .32 1.27 43% 75% 33% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.3 .35 7% .39 76% .30
Feb
14		 St. John's D+ C- F F D- 33% 33% 35% F+ F+ B+ F+ C B+ A+ A+ A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ 42% 28% 30% A+ A+ A+ F A- F D+ B C
0.91 50% 22% 26% -12 -2 0.75 35% 0.8 .26 18% .39 83% .32 1.04 48% 24% 22% -14 -1 0.73 25% 1.5 .36 7% .42 70% .30
Feb
21		 DePaul B A+ F C+ B 43% 30% 28% C B A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B+ B+ C+ B+ A A- 36% 23% 42% C+ A- D+ A+ A- F F+ A+ B-
1.06 71% 25% 36% +2 -1 1.05 41% 1.6 .67 27% .43 62% .26 1.01 58% 33% 27% -5 0 0.91 33% 0.8 .27 10% .40 50% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 1.9 1.9 4th
5th 1.8 5.1 6.9 5th
6th 6.0 23.0 2.1 31.1 6th
7th 0.0 17.1 5.4 22.5 7th
8th 2.8 11.7 0.1 14.7 8th
9th 9.4 2.0 11.4 9th
10th 0.7 7.2 0.0 8.0 10th
11th 3.2 0.5 3.6 11th
Total 3.9 20.0 36.8 30.3 9.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 9.1% 2.6% 1.8% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 8.8 0.8%
8-12 30.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 30.0 0.0%
7-13 36.8% 1.0% 1.0% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 36.4
6-14 20.0% 0.6% 0.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 19.8
5-15 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 3.9
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% 12.4 99.0 0.1%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.0 2.0 10.0 76.0 12.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 7.1% 11.3 5.3 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0% 2.3% 11.3 1.7 0.7
Lose Out 2.1%