Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.3 #67
Expected Predictive Rating +4.2 #98
Pace 78.7 #11
Improvement +1.1 #140

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #30 B+ B+ B B+ B
Defense #176 C C+ D+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #114 1.32 #29 +4.9 #33
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #313 0.81 #99 -2.1 #286
Three Pointers 45% #107 1.08 #89 +3.3 #72
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #33 +6.1 #34
Freethrows 0.34 #59 78% #18 0.27 #29
Second Chance 34.1% #81 1.17 #37 0.40 #41
Turnovers 14.4% #49
Total Offense +8.6 #30

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #249 1.07 #74 +2.9 #82
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #80 0.71 #93 -0.6 #228
Three Pointers 40% #211 1.11 #311 -1.5 #252
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #146 +0.9 #150
Freethrows 0.28 #95 72% #157 0.20 #101
Second Chance 28.8% #108 0.99 #120 0.29 #109
Turnovers 15.1% #274
Total Defense -0.3 #176

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #59 -1.1% #87
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.9% #44 -0.8% #170
Possession Length 14.9 #15 17.5 #230
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #18 0.16 #151
Improvement +2.1 #76 -0.9 #239

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.5% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.3 13.6
.500 or above 13.3% 19.1% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 2.6% 4.2% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.9% 19.6% 43.1%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Home) - 60.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 9
Quad 22 - 74 - 16
Quad 35 - 29 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 323 Holy Cross W 89 - 79 97% +10  1 - 0 -3 +1 C- C B- -5 D+ A- C-
 Sat, Nov 8 60 Virginia Tech L 101 - 107 OT 46% -0  1 - 1 +3 +11 C+ B B+ -7 D+ C- D
 Tue, Nov 11 180 Penn W 106 - 81 88% +10  2 - 1 +21 +18 A+ A+ F+ -1 A C+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 72 @Colorado L 88 - 97 40% -4  2 - 2 +2 +8 C C- B+ -5 B- F C
 Tue, Nov 18 320 New Hampshire W 98 - 66 96% +13  3 - 2 +19 +22 A+ C- B+ -2 B F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 112 Penn St. W 77 - 65 69% +3  4 - 2 +15 +3 F B+ A+ +13 A+ B+ B-
 Thu, Nov 27 37 Wisconsin L 83 - 104 31% -14  4 - 3 -7 +3 B B C- -8 C C- D
 Fri, Nov 28 5 Florida L 78 - 90 11% -9  4 - 4 +10 +12 A C- B+ -2 A C- F+
 Tue, Dec 2 343 Fairleigh Dickinson W 94 - 64 97% +23  5 - 4 +15 +20 A+ B+ C -3 C C- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 119 Rhode Island W 90 - 71 79% +5  6 - 4 +19 +19 A+ B+ C -0 F A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 9 280 Brown W 86 - 79 94% +6  7 - 4 -3 +6 B- C D+ -9 C- C+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 66 @Butler L 110 - 113 2OT 38% +0  7 - 5 0 - 1 +8 +21 A B- A+ -12 C C F
 Fri, Dec 19 53 Seton Hall L 67 - 72 55% -3  7 - 6 0 - 2 +2 +3 C+ D- A -1 C B B
 Sat, Jan 3 19 @St. John's W 77 - 71 13% -5  8 - 6 1 - 2 +27 +9 D- A+ A+ +17 A+ B B
 Wed, Jan 7 9 Connecticut L 98 - 103 OT 18% +5  8 - 7 1 - 3 +13 +20 A+ A+ C- -6 D- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 83 @Xavier L 84 - 97 45% -11  8 - 8 1 - 4 -3 +5 C C A+ -7 D+ B F
 Tue, Jan 13 32 Villanova L 82 - 88 39% -7  8 - 9 1 - 5 +5 +15 A+ A B- -10 F+ A C
 Fri, Jan 16 58 Creighton W 93 - 88 58% +1  9 - 9 2 - 5 +11 +13 C A+ B -2 A+ F+ C-
 Mon, Jan 19 95 @Marquette L 104 - 105 OT 48% -3  9 - 10 2 - 6 +8 +21 A+ A+ C- -13 D- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 78 Georgetown L 78 - 81 65% +9  9 - 11 2 - 7 +1 +13 B+ B- A -12 F B+ D
 Tue, Jan 27 9 @Connecticut L 81 - 87 8% -4  9 - 12 2 - 8 +18 +19 A+ A- A -1 B- B+ D
 Fri, Jan 30 32 @Villanova L 73 - 87 20% -10  9 - 13 2 - 9 +3 +10 A- C C -7 D- A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 66 Butler W 89 - 86 60%
 Sat, Feb 7 94 DePaul W 84 - 78 70%
 Wed, Feb 11 53 @Seton Hall L 74 - 79 33%
 Sat, Feb 14 19 St. John's L 85 - 91 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 94 @DePaul L 81 - 82 48%
 Tue, Feb 24 83 Xavier W 90 - 85 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 58 @Creighton L 83 - 87 35%
 Wed, Mar 4 95 Marquette W 89 - 83 70%
 Sat, Mar 7 78 @Georgetown L 82 - 84 43%
Totals 14 - 17 7 - 13 +8 +9 B+ B+ B +0 C C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.2 2.2 4th
5th 1.4 4.0 0.9 6.3 5th
6th 1.2 7.8 3.2 0.2 12.4 6th
7th 0.4 7.0 6.6 0.3 14.3 7th
8th 0.0 4.0 10.2 1.2 15.5 8th
9th 1.4 11.3 4.0 0.1 16.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 8.4 7.1 0.4 17.3 10th
11th 0.3 2.1 6.4 5.6 0.8 15.2 11th
Total 0.3 2.1 7.9 15.4 23.5 22.9 17.2 8.1 2.4 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.2% 35.4% 4.2% 31.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 32.6%
10-10 2.4% 9.6% 3.1% 6.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.2 6.7%
9-11 8.1% 4.1% 2.9% 1.2% 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 7.8 1.2%
8-12 17.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.1% 11.5 0.1 0.1 17.0 0.1%
7-13 22.9% 0.7% 0.7% 12.4 0.1 0.1 22.7
6-14 23.5% 0.5% 0.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.4
5-15 15.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.1 0.1 0.0 15.3
4-16 7.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 7.8
3-17 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 11.9 98.8 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%