San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.5 #242
Expected Predictive Rating -5.4 #249
Pace 62.3 #339
Improvement -2.3 #283

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #169 C C+ C+ C D-
Defense #302 D F+ B- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #331 1.12 #220 -4.4 #326
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #38 0.73 #208 +2.9 #51
Three Pointers 39% #220 1.09 #74 +0.5 #156
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #201 -1.0 #201
Freethrows 0.29 #224 73% #142 0.21 #194
Second Chance 33.9% #88 1.00 #223 0.34 #121
Turnovers 16.1% #143
Total Offense -0.2 #169

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #115 1.32 #343 -4.7 #330
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #278 0.76 #199 +1.2 #101
Three Pointers 42% #162 1.06 #247 -1.3 #246
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #321 -4.8 #321
Freethrows 0.29 #139 75% #320 0.21 #174
Second Chance 35.0% #325 1.17 #337 0.41 #349
Turnovers 18.3% #85
Total Defense -4.3 #302

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #337 1.1% #276
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.2% #151 8.3% #323
Possession Length 19.4 #350 17.3 #190
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #265 0.20 #285
Improvement +0.0 #171 -2.3 #309

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.3% 3.6% 15.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 12.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 20 - 101 - 16
Quad 31 - 72 - 23
Quad 46 - 17 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 104 @Utah L 75 - 84 14% -5  0 - 1 -2 +3 C C- C -5 D+ D- C+
 Sat, Nov 8 130 @UC Santa Barbara L 74 - 85 19% -9  0 - 2 -6 +10 C- A+ F -18 F F C
 Thu, Nov 13 10 @Michigan St. L 60 - 79 1% -14  0 - 3 +4 +5 C- B- A -2 C+ B- F+
 Fri, Nov 21 266 Southern W 80 - 66 67% +8  1 - 3 +5 +5 C- B- D- +1 C A- B
 Tue, Nov 25 69 Tulsa L 51 - 81 12% -13  1 - 4 -22 -15 F C F+ -11 D F C
 Wed, Nov 26 279 Loyola Chicago W 63 - 51 58% +1  2 - 4 +5 -2 D+ D C +9 C- F A+
 Sun, Nov 30 118 UC Irvine L 63 - 72 33% -5  2 - 5 -9 -2 C- D B+ -8 D+ D- C-
 Fri, Dec 5 202 San Diego W 86 - 69 54% +18  3 - 5 +11 +6 A A+ F +4 A+ F D+
 Tue, Dec 9 255 Long Beach St. W 89 - 83 OT 64% +1  4 - 5 -2 +10 A A C -13 C- F A-
 Sat, Dec 13 86 Stanford L 82 - 86 22% -8  4 - 6 -1 +12 C+ A+ A+ -13 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 45 @New Mexico L 65 - 88 5% -10  4 - 7 0 - 1 -8 +2 C C C -11 F D C+
 Tue, Dec 30 43 San Diego St. L 68 - 81 11% -4  4 - 8 0 - 2 -4 -0 F+ A D- -3 C- F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 38 @Utah St. L 78 - 96 4% -1  4 - 9 0 - 3 -1 +19 A+ C A+ -23 F F D
 Tue, Jan 6 146 Fresno St. L 55 - 70 41% -11  4 - 10 0 - 4 -17 -10 C- F+ B -9 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 65 @Grand Canyon L 58 - 76 7% -14  4 - 11 0 - 5 -6 -6 C D+ D- -1 D- D- B+
 Tue, Jan 13 350 Air Force W 70 - 62 84% +4  5 - 11 1 - 5 -7 +3 C C+ C -9 D+ D- A
 Sat, Jan 17 128 UNLV L 62 - 76 37% -7  5 - 12 1 - 6 -15 +3 C+ C- D -21 F A+ F+
 Tue, Jan 20 71 @Nevada L 54 - 87 8% -16  5 - 13 1 - 7 -22 -7 F D A+ -20 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 111 @Wyoming L 62 - 66 15% -3  5 - 14 1 - 8 +3 -1 D+ D- A- +4 C+ A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 62 Boise St. L 58 - 89 16% -9  5 - 15 1 - 9 -25 -9 F+ B- D+ -18 F F C
 Sat, Jan 31 45 New Mexico L 80 - 90 11% -7  5 - 16 1 - 10 -1 +20 B+ A+ A+ -22 F F+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 103 @Colorado St. L 64 - 76 12%
 Tue, Feb 10 128 @UNLV L 71 - 80 19%
 Sat, Feb 14 65 Grand Canyon L 65 - 75 17%
 Tue, Feb 17 71 Nevada L 66 - 76 19%
 Sat, Feb 21 62 @Boise St. L 63 - 79 6%
 Tue, Feb 24 350 @Air Force W 69 - 64 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 103 Colorado St. L 67 - 73 28%
 Tue, Mar 3 146 @Fresno St. L 67 - 75 22%
 Sat, Mar 7 111 Wyoming L 69 - 74 32%
Totals 7 - 23 3 - 17 -5 +0 C C+ C+ -4 D F+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.3 1.9 1.9 0.3 4.3 10th
11th 4.6 22.7 29.9 22.0 9.1 1.3 0.0 89.7 11th
12th 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.5 12th
Total 7.7 23.9 30.1 22.3 11.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 1.0% 1.0
6-14 3.9% 3.9
5-15 11.0% 11.0
4-16 22.3% 22.3
3-17 30.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 30.1
2-18 23.9% 23.9
1-19 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.2%