San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 #221
Expected Predictive Rating -4.5 #236
Pace 64.2 #312
Improvement +0.3 #160

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #177 C B- C C- F
Defense #264 D- F B+ B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #313 1.12 #222 -3.6 #301
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #34 0.80 #117 +4.2 #23
Three Pointers 37% #266 1.07 #115 -1.1 #221
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #191 -0.5 #189
Freethrows 16.0 #258 74% #142 11.8 #231
Second Chance 35.2% #60 1.02 #217 0.36 #98
Turnovers 16.5% #170
Total Offense -0.2 #177

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #162 1.29 #322 -3.2 #284
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #228 0.82 #288 +0.0 #181
Three Pointers 42% #158 1.04 #227 -1.1 #222
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #306 -4.3 #306
Freethrows 15.6 #94 73% #185 11.3 #266
Second Chance 35.6% #330 1.24 #346 0.44 #356
Turnovers 19.4% #49
Total Defense -2.9 #264

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #336 0.7% #225
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.3% #146 7.7% #316
Possession Length 19.3 #344 17.2 #177
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #236 0.21 #306
Improvement +0.3 #163 +0.0 #188

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.6% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 1.2% 4.4% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.2% 5.3% 17.4%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 10.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 91 - 14
Quad 32 - 73 - 21
Quad 46 - 19 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 117 @Utah L 75 - 84 19%  -5  0 - 1 -3 +3 C D+ C- -6 D- D- C+
 Sat, Nov 8 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 74 - 85 32%  -9  0 - 2 -9 +8 D+ A+ F -19 F F C-
 Thu, Nov 13 14 @Michigan St. L 60 - 79 2%  -14  0 - 3 +2 +4 C- B- A+ -3 C C- F
 Fri, Nov 21 256 Southern W 80 - 66 70%  +8  1 - 3 +5 +4 C- B- F +2 C A+ B+
 Tue, Nov 25 81 Tulsa L 51 - 81 17%  -13  1 - 4 -23 -14 F C- F -13 F F C
 Wed, Nov 26 251 Loyola Chicago W 63 - 51 57%  +1  2 - 4 +7 -1 D+ D- C +10 D- F A+
 Sun, Nov 30 121 UC Irvine L 63 - 72 40%  -5  2 - 5 -10 -3 C- F A -7 D+ D- C
 Fri, Dec 5 222 San Diego W 86 - 69 62%  +18  3 - 5 +11 +7 A+ A+ F +3 A+ F D-
 Tue, Dec 9 262 Long Beach St. W 89 - 83 OT 71%  +1  4 - 5 -3 +10 A+ A+ C -13 C- F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 79 Stanford L 82 - 86 23%  -8  4 - 6 +1 +13 C+ A+ A+ -12 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 56 @New Mexico L 65 - 88 8%  -10  4 - 7 0 - 1 -10 +1 C D+ C -13 F D C
 Tue, Dec 30 52 San Diego St. L 68 - 81 16%  -4  4 - 8 0 - 2 -6 -4 F A+ F -1 C- F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 35 @Utah St. L 78 - 96 4%  -1  4 - 9 0 - 3 -1 +19 A+ C A+ -22 F F F
 Tue, Jan 6 157 Fresno St. L 55 - 70 50%  -11  4 - 10 0 - 4 -18 -12 D- F B+ -8 D+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 83 @Grand Canyon L 64 - 77 10% 
 Tue, Jan 13 334 Air Force W 71 - 60 84% 
 Sat, Jan 17 142 UNLV L 75 - 76 45% 
 Tue, Jan 20 90 @Nevada L 64 - 77 12% 
 Sat, Jan 24 95 @Wyoming L 67 - 79 13% 
 Tue, Jan 27 63 Boise St. L 65 - 74 20% 
 Sat, Jan 31 56 New Mexico L 68 - 78 18% 
 Sat, Feb 7 94 @Colorado St. L 65 - 77 13% 
 Tue, Feb 10 142 @UNLV L 72 - 79 26% 
 Sat, Feb 14 83 Grand Canyon L 67 - 74 25% 
 Tue, Feb 17 90 Nevada L 67 - 74 27% 
 Sat, Feb 21 63 @Boise St. L 62 - 77 8% 
 Tue, Feb 24 334 @Air Force W 68 - 63 67% 
 Sat, Feb 28 94 Colorado St. L 68 - 74 29% 
 Tue, Mar 3 157 @Fresno St. L 69 - 75 29% 
 Sat, Mar 7 95 Wyoming L 70 - 76 29% 
Totals 9 - 21 5 - 15 -3 +0 C B- C -3 D- F B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 1.7 7th
8th 0.2 1.0 1.8 0.8 0.1 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.0 4.0 1.9 0.2 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.4 7.8 7.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 22.8 10th
11th 0.9 6.7 14.5 16.0 10.0 3.4 0.4 0.0 51.9 11th
12th 0.6 3.0 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 8.6 12th
Total 0.6 3.9 9.9 16.6 19.8 18.7 14.0 8.7 4.6 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.2% 0.2
10-10 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 0.8
9-11 2.0% 2.0
8-12 4.6% 4.6
7-13 8.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.7
6-14 14.0% 14.0
5-15 18.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.7
4-16 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.8
3-17 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.6
2-18 9.9% 9.9
1-19 3.9% 3.9
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%