San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#146
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#184
Pace65.0#269
Improvement+6.5#6

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#117
First Shot+2.0#114
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#189
Layup/Dunks+0.9#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#151
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#217
Freethrows+2.0#75
Improvement+3.2#34

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#200
First Shot-0.9#207
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#186
Layups/Dunks-3.9#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#106
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#181
Freethrows+1.7#67
Improvement+3.3#29
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.3
.500 or above 8.4% 12.0% 2.2%
.500 or above in Conference 8.9% 12.8% 2.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Away) - 63.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 50 - 6
Quad 22 - 62 - 12
Quad 34 - 46 - 16
Quad 47 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 354   Western Illinois L 55-59 93%     0 - 1 -19.8 -16.7 -3.8
  Nov 08, 2024 302   Pacific L 67-80 81%     0 - 2 -21.0 -12.3 -8.3
  Nov 10, 2024 180   @ Hawaii L 69-80 48%     0 - 3 -9.4 +5.2 -15.9
  Nov 17, 2024 158   UC Santa Barbara L 59-64 62%     0 - 4 -7.1 -2.9 -5.2
  Nov 20, 2024 54   @ USC L 68-82 15%     0 - 5 -1.6 +7.2 -10.1
  Nov 25, 2024 143   UTEP W 71-65 50%     1 - 5 +7.2 +1.3 +6.0
  Nov 26, 2024 159   UNC Greensboro W 69-64 53%     2 - 5 +5.4 +1.1 +4.7
  Nov 27, 2024 305   Long Beach St. W 82-66 81%     3 - 5 +7.8 +14.9 -4.9
  Dec 04, 2024 40   @ New Mexico L 77-83 11%     3 - 6 0 - 1 +8.4 +12.3 -3.9
  Dec 14, 2024 276   Cal Poly W 107-100 OT 83%     4 - 6 -1.9 +5.1 -8.5
  Dec 21, 2024 170   Kennesaw St. W 89-65 64%     5 - 6 +21.4 +9.4 +10.2
  Dec 28, 2024 51   Boise St. L 71-73 26%     5 - 7 0 - 2 +5.7 +13.1 -7.8
  Dec 31, 2024 77   Colorado St. L 50-72 35%     5 - 8 0 - 3 -17.0 -20.3 +3.5
  Jan 04, 2025 101   @ UNLV L 73-79 28%     5 - 9 0 - 4 +1.1 +10.6 -10.1
  Jan 07, 2025 49   Utah St. L 78-85 26%     5 - 10 0 - 5 +0.7 +13.4 -13.2
  Jan 11, 2025 277   @ Air Force W 69-62 69%     6 - 10 1 - 5 +3.1 +3.1 +0.8
  Jan 14, 2025 40   New Mexico W 71-70 22%     7 - 10 2 - 5 +10.4 +2.6 +7.8
  Jan 18, 2025 88   @ Nevada L 64-75 23%     7 - 11 2 - 6 -2.0 +6.5 -10.4
  Jan 25, 2025 167   Wyoming W 67-58 64%     8 - 11 3 - 6 +6.5 +1.8 +5.8
  Jan 28, 2025 52   @ San Diego St. L 68-71 14%     8 - 12 3 - 7 +9.7 +7.0 +2.5
  Feb 01, 2025 277   Air Force W 75-64 83%     9 - 12 4 - 7 +2.1 +4.1 -1.2
  Feb 04, 2025 259   @ Fresno St. W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 07, 2025 51   @ Boise St. L 66-78 13%    
  Feb 11, 2025 52   San Diego St. L 64-71 28%    
  Feb 14, 2025 88   Nevada L 67-70 42%    
  Feb 19, 2025 49   @ Utah St. L 69-81 13%    
  Feb 22, 2025 167   @ Wyoming L 67-68 43%    
  Feb 25, 2025 101   UNLV L 69-70 49%    
  Mar 04, 2025 77   @ Colorado St. L 66-75 19%    
  Mar 08, 2025 259   Fresno St. W 80-71 82%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.2 5th
6th 1.2 4.9 4.8 0.9 0.1 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 2.0 10.3 8.6 1.7 0.1 22.6 7th
8th 0.2 3.9 15.4 12.1 2.2 0.1 34.0 8th
9th 0.4 5.3 13.2 8.8 1.5 0.1 29.4 9th
10th 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.8 6.0 17.2 26.2 25.1 15.7 6.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.3% 3.7% 3.7% 11.0 0.0 0.3
11-9 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 1.6
10-10 6.9% 1.2% 1.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9
9-11 15.7% 1.1% 1.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 15.6
8-12 25.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.2 0.1 0.0 25.0
7-13 26.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 26.2
6-14 17.2% 17.2
5-15 6.0% 6.0
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%