Seattle
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#143
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#227
Pace67.0#231
Improvement-0.9#243

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#148
First Shot-1.1#207
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#69
Layup/Dunks-3.8#309
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#215
Freethrows+5.3#2
Improvement-1.1#261

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#169
First Shot-1.9#242
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#52
Layups/Dunks-2.0#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#186
Freethrows+0.0#194
Improvement+0.1#172
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.4% 16.4% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 44.2% 49.6% 25.0%
.500 or above in Conference 78.9% 80.9% 72.1%
Conference Champion 19.2% 20.7% 13.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.3% 4.0%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 1.3%
First Round15.2% 16.3% 11.3%
Second Round1.3% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 77.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 34 - 76 - 11
Quad 48 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 254   @ Eastern Washington L 86-93 61%     0 - 1 -9.1 +7.1 -16.0
  Nov 09, 2024 72   Liberty L 64-66 36%     0 - 2 +2.7 -0.3 +2.8
  Nov 14, 2024 271   @ Cal Poly L 71-75 64%     0 - 3 -6.9 -7.9 +1.2
  Nov 16, 2024 90   @ UC San Diego W 84-71 21%     1 - 3 +22.2 +22.5 +0.7
  Nov 26, 2024 115   Furman L 56-61 42%     1 - 4 -2.0 -7.9 +5.3
  Nov 29, 2024 2   @ Duke L 48-70 2%     1 - 5 +2.7 -10.1 +12.2
  Dec 04, 2024 250   Portland St. W 91-74 80%     2 - 5 +9.1 +17.8 -8.1
  Dec 07, 2024 139   @ UTEP L 72-88 37%     2 - 6 -11.7 +4.3 -16.3
  Dec 17, 2024 109   @ Western Kentucky L 73-86 27%     2 - 7 -5.9 +6.1 -12.0
  Dec 20, 2024 192   Illinois-Chicago L 68-79 70%     2 - 8 -15.6 -9.8 -5.3
  Dec 23, 2024 95   @ Washington W 79-70 24%     3 - 8 +17.4 +9.4 +7.7
  Dec 30, 2024 238   Nicholls St. W 76-68 78%    
  Jan 04, 2025 158   @ California Baptist L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 212   Abilene Christian W 74-68 73%    
  Jan 16, 2025 287   Utah Tech W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 227   Southern Utah W 78-71 76%    
  Jan 23, 2025 164   @ Texas Arlington L 76-78 43%    
  Jan 25, 2025 145   Utah Valley W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 30, 2025 107   @ Grand Canyon L 70-77 28%    
  Feb 06, 2025 286   Tarleton St. W 73-62 84%    
  Feb 08, 2025 164   Texas Arlington W 79-75 65%    
  Feb 13, 2025 212   @ Abilene Christian W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 286   @ Tarleton St. W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 145   @ Utah Valley L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 27, 2025 158   California Baptist W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 107   Grand Canyon L 73-74 48%    
  Mar 06, 2025 227   @ Southern Utah W 75-74 55%    
  Mar 08, 2025 287   @ Utah Tech W 75-70 66%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.7 5.4 2.8 1.0 0.2 19.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.8 8.0 4.0 1.1 0.1 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 6.1 7.4 2.7 0.3 0.0 17.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.2 6.4 1.8 0.1 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.7 5.6 1.6 0.1 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 1.0 0.1 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.9 9.5 13.2 15.3 15.7 14.2 10.0 6.4 2.9 1.0 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
14-2 96.5% 2.8    2.6 0.3
13-3 83.5% 5.4    4.0 1.3 0.1
12-4 57.0% 5.7    2.9 2.3 0.5 0.0
11-5 24.2% 3.4    0.8 1.7 0.8 0.2
10-6 4.4% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 19.2% 19.2 11.4 5.7 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 48.8% 48.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.0% 46.8% 46.8% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-2 2.9% 38.9% 38.9% 12.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8
13-3 6.4% 35.9% 35.9% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 4.1
12-4 10.0% 30.2% 30.2% 13.5 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.2 7.0
11-5 14.2% 22.6% 22.6% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.0 11.0
10-6 15.7% 14.8% 14.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.1 13.4
9-7 15.3% 10.3% 10.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.3 13.8
8-8 13.2% 5.7% 5.7% 15.5 0.4 0.4 12.4
7-9 9.5% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 9.2
6-10 5.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 5.7
5-11 3.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-12 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-13 0.6% 0.6
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.1 4.4 4.0 1.4 84.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.2 2.9 8.8 52.9 32.4 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%