Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.0 #266
Expected Predictive Rating -9.5 #319
Pace 73.7 #57
Improvement -1.0 #232

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #289 D C C C D
Defense #233 D C- B- D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #239 1.08 #273 -2.8 #277
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #33 0.67 #311 +2.1 #74
Three Pointers 34% #315 0.94 #275 -4.6 #325
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #329 -5.3 #328
Freethrows 0.32 #138 68% #315 0.21 #191
Second Chance 29.9% #205 1.03 #167 0.31 #187
Turnovers 17.1% #209
Total Offense -4.5 #289

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #286 1.21 #252 +1.2 #132
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #258 0.84 #304 +0.3 #167
Three Pointers 47% #35 1.13 #331 -5.8 #354
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #314 -4.4 #313
Freethrows 0.35 #317 77% #354 0.27 #341
Second Chance 32.0% #243 1.07 #257 0.34 #256
Turnovers 18.6% #71
Total Defense -1.5 #233

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.6% #324 0.2% #180
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.1% #317 8.4% #324
Possession Length 16.3 #87 16.7 #92
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #131 0.21 #300
Improvement -1.4 #266 +0.4 #165

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.3% 19.9% 13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 9.0% 13.4% 2.7%
.500 or above in Conference 80.8% 89.5% 68.5%
Conference Champion 11.2% 16.1% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four14.8% 16.4% 12.6%
First Round11.1% 12.9% 8.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Away) - 58.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 31 - 11 - 7
Quad 411 - 1012 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 22 @Arkansas L 77 - 109 2% -21  0 - 1 -13 -0 C- C+ B+ -8 C+ C+ C-
 Wed, Nov 5 95 @Marquette L 82 - 100 9% -9  0 - 2 -9 +4 C C- B+ -11 F B- D
 Tue, Nov 18 41 @Washington L 93 - 99 2OT 4% +3  0 - 3 +9 +5 C- A+ D- +6 A D+ B-
 Fri, Nov 21 242 @San Jose St. L 66 - 80 33% -8  0 - 4 -16 -9 F F D+ -6 D+ D A
 Sat, Nov 29 270 @Northwestern St. W 75 - 73 39% +8  1 - 4 -1 +0 C D+ D -2 C F B
 Mon, Dec 8 31 @Texas L 69 - 95 2% -17  1 - 5 -8 -0 B- F F -7 D- F B+
 Wed, Dec 10 259 @Texas St. L 83 - 86 37% +2  1 - 6 -6 +1 C+ C+ F -6 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 16 134 @California Baptist L 67 - 75 16% -4  1 - 7 -3 -1 D B F -2 C B+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 47 @Baylor L 67 - 111 4% -15  1 - 8 -29 -0 F A+ A- -29 F D F
 Mon, Dec 29 7 @Illinois L 55 - 90 1% -20  1 - 9 -11 -4 F B+ C+ -9 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 309 Texas Southern W 84 - 73 72% +8  2 - 9 1 - 0 -1 -5 C+ F+ C +2 B- D+ A-
 Mon, Jan 5 339 Prairie View L 85 - 89 79% -5  2 - 10 1 - 1 -18 -1 F C B- -18 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 10 317 @Florida A&M L 59 - 67 52% -4  2 - 11 1 - 2 -15 -13 F F D- -2 C D- A+
 Mon, Jan 12 236 @Bethune-Cookman W 77 - 73 32% -4  3 - 11 2 - 2 +3 +2 F B+ B- +1 D- A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 287 @Grambling St. W 71 - 53 43% +11  4 - 11 3 - 2 +14 -2 C- F C+ +15 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 74 - 75 77% +2  4 - 12 3 - 3 -15 -5 F A+ F+ -10 C F+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 69 96% +5  5 - 12 4 - 3 -16 -2 F B- C -14 F+ D D+
 Sat, Jan 31 348 @Alcorn St. L 73 - 78 61% -1  5 - 13 4 - 4 -14 +2 F D+ B -16 F D+ B-
 Mon, Feb 2 337 @Jackson St. W 79 - 77 59%
 Sat, Feb 7 293 Alabama A&M W 75 - 70 67%
 Mon, Feb 9 322 Alabama St. W 80 - 73 74%
 Sat, Feb 14 339 @Prairie View W 80 - 78 58%
 Mon, Feb 16 309 @Texas Southern L 78 - 79 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 287 Grambling St. W 74 - 70 66%
 Thu, Feb 26 317 Florida A&M W 76 - 69 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 236 Bethune-Cookman W 76 - 75 54%
 Tue, Mar 3 322 @Alabama St. W 77 - 76 54%
 Thu, Mar 5 293 @Alabama A&M L 72 - 73 45%
Totals 11 - 17 10 - 8 -6 -4 D C C -1 D C- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.0 5.0 4.1 1.2 11.2 1st
2nd 0.8 8.0 7.3 1.5 0.1 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 5.8 8.3 1.2 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 1.3 9.3 2.5 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.1 5.4 5.4 0.1 11.1 5th
6th 1.0 7.8 1.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 3.6 3.4 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.7 4.6 0.4 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.1 2.0 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.3 3.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.4 11.6 18.3 22.2 19.9 13.5 5.6 1.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 95.7% 1.2    1.0 0.3
13-5 73.0% 4.1    2.1 1.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 36.9% 5.0    1.0 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0
11-7 5.0% 1.0    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.2% 11.2 4.1 4.3 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.3% 35.0% 35.0% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.8
13-5 5.6% 32.4% 32.4% 15.8 0.3 1.5 3.8
12-6 13.5% 26.9% 26.9% 16.0 0.1 3.5 9.9
11-7 19.9% 21.1% 21.1% 16.0 4.2 15.7
10-8 22.2% 18.4% 18.4% 16.0 4.1 18.1
9-9 18.3% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 2.5 15.8
8-10 11.6% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.6 10.9
7-11 5.4% 5.4
6-12 1.8% 1.8
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 15.9 82.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 14.8 23.6 75.3 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%