Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.5 #256
Expected Predictive Rating -9.8 #316
Pace 76.0 #38
Improvement -0.6 #215

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #270 D C C D+ D
Defense #234 F D+ C+ D- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #180 1.07 #275 -1.7 #243
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #44 0.58 #345 +0.6 #152
Three Pointers 33% #323 1.07 #107 -2.9 #280
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #294 -4.0 #291
Freethrows 16.9 #216 66% #325 11.2 #265
Second Chance 30.6% #190 1.05 #182 0.32 #172
Turnovers 16.9% #196
Total Offense -3.4 #270

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #306 1.30 #325 +0.4 #164
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #176 0.79 #234 -0.4 #215
Three Pointers 46% #56 1.21 #356 -6.9 #358
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #347 -6.9 #348
Freethrows 20.0 #311 75% #291 15.1 #42
Second Chance 30.7% #177 1.16 #304 0.36 #263
Turnovers 17.7% #109
Total Defense -2.1 #234

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.0% #300 -0.7% #107
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.0% #272 14.3% #355
Possession Length 16.1 #79 16.7 #93
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #165 0.24 #338
Improvement -0.6 #230 +0.0 #190

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.6% 20.7% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 25.7% 32.7% 13.9%
.500 or above in Conference 83.7% 89.9% 73.2%
Conference Champion 24.7% 30.8% 14.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four14.0% 14.6% 12.9%
First Round12.7% 14.4% 9.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Away) - 62.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 30 - 20 - 9
Quad 413 - 813 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 19 @Arkansas L 77 - 109 2%  -21  0 - 1 -13 +0 C- C+ B+ -9 C B- D
 Wed, Nov 5 110 @Marquette L 82 - 100 12%  -9  0 - 2 -11 +5 C C A- -14 F D D
 Tue, Nov 18 47 @Washington L 93 - 99 2OT 5%  +3  0 - 3 +8 +4 D+ A+ D- +5 A- C- B+
 Fri, Nov 21 221 @San Jose St. L 66 - 80 30%  -8  0 - 4 -14 -8 F F C -6 F D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 288 @Northwestern St. W 75 - 73 44%  +8  1 - 4 -2 -0 D+ C D- -2 C- F B+
 Mon, Dec 8 45 @Texas L 69 - 95 4%  -17  1 - 5 -12 -1 C+ F F -10 F F A
 Wed, Dec 10 268 @Texas St. L 83 - 86 41%  +2  1 - 6 -6 -0 D+ C F -6 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 147 @California Baptist L 67 - 75 19%  -4  1 - 7 -4 -3 F B F -2 C A- D-
 Sun, Dec 21 32 @Baylor L 67 - 111 3%  -15  1 - 8 -27 +0 F A+ A- -27 F D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 9 @Illinois L 55 - 90 1%  -20  1 - 9 -12 -4 F A- C -11 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 335 Texas Southern W 84 - 73 79%  +8  2 - 9 1 - 0 -3 -4 C+ F C -0 C C- A
 Mon, Jan 5 306 Prairie View L 85 - 89 72%  -5  2 - 10 1 - 1 -16 -0 F C B+ -15 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 345 @Florida A&M W 79 - 76 63% 
 Mon, Jan 12 278 @Bethune-Cookman L 78 - 80 43% 
 Sat, Jan 17 246 @Grambling St. L 72 - 76 37% 
 Sat, Jan 24 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 87 - 79 77% 
 Mon, Jan 26 365 Mississippi Valley W 85 - 63 98% 
 Sat, Jan 31 346 @Alcorn St. W 82 - 78 63% 
 Mon, Feb 2 342 @Jackson St. W 80 - 77 62% 
 Sat, Feb 7 303 Alabama A&M W 76 - 71 69% 
 Mon, Feb 9 301 Alabama St. W 81 - 76 69% 
 Sat, Feb 14 306 @Prairie View W 82 - 81 50% 
 Mon, Feb 16 335 @Texas Southern W 79 - 77 58% 
 Sat, Feb 21 246 Grambling St. W 75 - 73 59% 
 Thu, Feb 26 345 Florida A&M W 82 - 73 80% 
 Sat, Feb 28 278 Bethune-Cookman W 81 - 77 65% 
 Tue, Mar 3 301 @Alabama St. L 78 - 79 47% 
 Thu, Mar 5 303 @Alabama A&M L 73 - 74 48% 
Totals 12 - 16 11 - 7 -6 -3 D C C -2 F D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 3.9 7.9 7.1 3.9 1.4 0.2 24.7 1st
2nd 0.2 4.0 7.9 4.2 0.8 0.1 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.4 7.1 3.3 0.4 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.7 3.7 0.4 10.5 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 5.2 0.6 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.8 1.5 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.1 2.5 0.2 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.9 0.5 5.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.7 8.2 11.5 15.0 15.9 15.5 12.4 7.9 3.9 1.4 0.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.0
15-3 98.5% 3.9    3.6 0.2
14-4 89.9% 7.1    5.4 1.5 0.1
13-5 63.2% 7.9    3.6 3.4 0.8 0.1
12-6 25.1% 3.9    0.7 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.0
11-7 2.9% 0.5    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.7% 24.7 14.9 6.7 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.2% 33.3% 33.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 1.4% 50.0% 50.0% 14.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7
15-3 3.9% 36.8% 36.8% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.9 2.5
14-4 7.9% 29.0% 29.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.6
13-5 12.4% 27.3% 27.3% 16.0 0.1 3.3 9.0
12-6 15.5% 22.5% 22.5% 16.0 0.0 3.5 12.0
11-7 15.9% 19.5% 19.5% 16.0 3.1 12.8
10-8 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 16.0 2.3 12.8
9-9 11.5% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 1.4 10.1
8-10 8.2% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.5 7.8
7-11 4.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.6
6-12 2.3% 2.3
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 15.9 81.4 0.0%