Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.4 241
Results Rating -3.3 223
Pace 71.2 110
Improvement -0.9 217

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 285 D C D A- D-
Defense C 167 D+ B- C+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 156 C 58% 159 +0.6 157
2 Pt. Jumpers 61% 11 C- 36% 236 +3.6 36
Three Pointers 29% 357 F 27% 365 -9.1 363
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.3 332 D -3.6 307
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 323
Second Chance C 31.0% 167 C 1.01 198 C 0.31 168
Turnovers D 19.0% 309
Freethrows B+ 0.36 23 B- 75% 107 A- 0.27 21
Total Offense D+ -4.3 285

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 201 D+ 13.1% 301
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 324 D+ 6.8% 292
Three Pointers D+ 80% 265 D 1.5% 312
Total F+ 45% 350 F+ 7.7% 344

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 160 C+ 56% 126 -0.2 167
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 243 D+ 40% 268 -0.3 162
Three Pointers 42% 134 D- 38% 344 +3.3 321
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 228 D+ +2.3 272
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 267
Second Chance B- 28.0% 85 C+ 1.01 153 B- 0.28 93
Turnovers C+ 17.5% 132
Freethrows D 0.35 305 B+ 69% 32 D+ 0.24 268
Total Defense C +0.0 167

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 180 C+ 12.5% 110
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 18 C 5.1% 158
Three Pointers B 79% 45 B- 1.5% 66
Total C+ 54% 143 C+ 6.5% 108

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 204 16.6 59
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 103 0.20 281
Improvement -3.9 #340 +3.0 #46

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 258 241 215
Results Rating Rank 247 227 195
Conference Record 8 - 10 8 - 10 10 - 8
Conference Finish 10 9 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 15% 46% 6%
.500 or above in Conference 44% 100% 28%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Away) - 21.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 74 - 11
Quad 410 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 207 @Buffalo L 79 - 85 32% +3  66% 0 - 1 D+ -6 B +6 B- B F+ F -12 D- D F+
 Sun, Nov 9 92 @South Carolina L 79 - 83 OT 11% -2  42% 0 - 2 B- +5 C+ +3 C C+ A- B- +3 D- A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 296 @Grambling St. L 70 - 75 52% -6  9% 0 - 3 D -10 D+ -4 F A+ A- D -6 F B+ A-
 Sat, Nov 22 340 North Florida W 92 - 83 77% -0  44% 1 - 3 C- -3 B- +4 C+ B D+ D- -7 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 217 Tennessee Martin W 70 - 60 46% +14  97% 2 - 3 B- +7 A +14 B- A+ A D -5 F+ A F
 Wed, Dec 3 233 @Radford W 82 - 75 37% +6  84% 3 - 3 B- +6 C -0 F C- C- B+ +6 A- B- D-
 Sat, Dec 6 39 @Miami (FL) L 64 - 88 4% -5  39% 3 - 4 D+ -8 D- -8 D- A+ F C+ +1 C B B+
 Mon, Dec 8 296 Grambling St. W 68 - 60 73% -1  29% 4 - 4 C- -3 D- -8 C- D+ F B +5 D A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 72 Mississippi L 67 - 71 13% -3  15% 4 - 5 C+ +4 C- -1 B- C D- B +5 B- B+ C-
 Thu, Dec 18 291 Louisiana W 62 - 54 73% +2  64% 5 - 5 1 - 0 C- -3 F -15 F F+ A+ A+ +13 A A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 143 Arkansas St. L 86 - 93 41% -3  26% 5 - 6 1 - 1 D -9 B +7 B- B C F -16 B F F
 Mon, Dec 29 53 @LSU L 62 - 90 6% -14  3% 5 - 7 F+ -15 F+ -9 F F+ B- D -5 C C F
 Thu, Jan 1 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 73 74% +11  100% 6 - 7 2 - 1 C+ +3 D+ -3 B+ D- F B +5 C+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 3 291 @Louisiana W 74 - 67 51% +2  60% 7 - 7 3 - 1 C+ +2 C +0 B- D F B- +2 C- F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 237 Texas St. W 80 - 70 OT 60% -0  41% 8 - 7 4 - 1 C+ +3 D -5 D- C- D+ A- +7 B+ C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 353 Louisiana Monroe W 70 - 60 88% -0  49% 9 - 7 5 - 1 D+ -7 F -13 F D B B+ +6 C+ B+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 152 @Troy L 65 - 91 23% -12  10% 9 - 8 5 - 2 F -23 F+ -9 F B- F F -13 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 237 @Texas St. L 67 - 74 38% -3  24% 9 - 9 5 - 3 D -8 F+ -9 F F D+ C+ +1 D A- A+
 Thu, Jan 22 289 @Georgia St. L 62 - 69 51% -2  33% 9 - 10 5 - 4 D- -12 F -15 F F B- B +4 A F B
 Sat, Jan 24 236 @Coastal Carolina L 67 - 85 37% -12  0% 9 - 11 5 - 5 F -19 D+ -3 C- D- B F -16 F C- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 173 Appalachian St. L 63 - 70 47% -2  25% 9 - 12 5 - 6 D -11 F+ -10 F+ D+ F C -1 C- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 201 James Madison W 73 - 65 54% +5  91% 10 - 12 6 - 6 C+ +3 D+ -3 D C- F+ B+ +6 A D+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 176 @Marshall L 77 - 81 27% +2  67% 10 - 13 6 - 7 C- -2 B- +4 C B F D- -7 F C C-
 Sat, Feb 7 144 Kent St. W 66 - 65 41% +0  56% 11 - 13 C -1 D -6 F C+ D+ B +5 B B F
 Thu, Feb 12 182 South Alabama L 78 - 84 50% -8  0% 11 - 14 6 - 8 D -10 D+ -4 C+ A- F D -6 F A+ C
 Sat, Feb 14 152 Troy W 69 - 65 44% -0  48% 12 - 14 7 - 8 C +1 D+ -4 F A B- B+ +5 D+ B A+
 Sat, Feb 21 242 Old Dominion W 86 - 81 62% -3  39% 13 - 14 8 - 8 C- -2 D -4 A C- F C+ +1 C+ F A+
 Tue, Feb 24 143 @Arkansas St. L 75 - 83 22%
 Fri, Feb 27 182 @South Alabama L 67 - 73 29%
Totals 14 - 15 9 - 9 -4 D+ -4 A+ D D- C +0 F B- A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C C- F D 39% 61% 29% D- D C C C D B+ B- A- C C+ D+ D- D+ 39% 19% 42% C- D+ B- C+ B- C+ D B+ D+
1.02 58% 36% 27% -4 -1 0.92 31% 1.0 .31 19% .36 75% .27 1.09 56% 40% 38% +2 0 1.07 28% 1.0 .28 17% .35 69% .25
Nov
3		 Buffalo B C+ A+ C B- 49% 13% 38% B B- D+ A+ B F+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F F D 36% 7% 58% F+ D- F A- D F+ F B+ F
1.20 64% 67% 35% +7 +2 1.20 29% 1.3 .38 21% .39 95% .37 1.29 50% 67% 42% +6 +2 1.18 37% 0.9 .34 12% .62 69% .43
Nov
9		 South Carolina C+ A- C+ F+ B- 27% 41% 32% F C B- D+ C+ A- B A- B+ B- A+ F F D- 21% 9% 70% C D- C A+ A+ A+ C- C- D+
1.05 67% 39% 28% 0 -3 0.95 33% 0.9 .30 12% .32 76% .24 1.11 45% 60% 41% +6 0 1.15 29% 0.5 .14 20% .35 81% .28
Nov
13		 Grambling St. D+ F F+ F F 57% 14% 29% B+ F A B+ A+ A- A+ F A- D D F F F 54% 6% 40% F F A C- B+ A- B- D+ C+
1.00 43% 29% 14% -19 +2 0.69 44% 1.2 .54 16% .49 62% .31 1.08 62% 67% 42% +8 +3 1.25 21% 1.0 .21 24% .30 75% .23
Nov
22		 North Florida B- B- A+ F B- 52% 30% 19% D C+ A- D+ B D+ A+ F A- D- F F F F 24% 18% 58% A- F A+ F A+ A+ B+ D+ B
1.29 64% 63% 20% +7 0 1.15 45% 1.1 .52 14% .42 62% .26 1.16 83% 56% 48% +22 -1 1.44 9% 1.5 .14 25% .19 80% .15
Nov
23		 Tennessee Martin A A D+ B+ B+ 31% 33% 36% F+ B- A- A A+ A C- F F+ D B- F D+ F 38% 20% 43% C- F+ A- A A F F A+ D+
1.25 71% 33% 38% +4 -2 1.07 42% 1.2 .48 14% .31 53% .17 1.08 53% 63% 35% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.7 .20 16% .43 55% .23
Dec
3		 Radford C D D F+ F 33% 35% 33% F F B+ F C- C- A+ A+ A+ B+ A- A+ C+ A 39% 9% 52% D- A- B C B- D- F+ D- F
1.09 53% 33% 29% -6 -2 0.87 38% 0.9 .32 19% .52 84% .44 1.00 48% 0% 32% -9 +2 0.87 25% 1.0 .25 15% .42 78% .33
Dec
6		 Miami (FL) D- C+ F+ F F+ 41% 30% 28% C- D- A+ A A+ F A+ C A C+ D- B+ D C- 45% 24% 31% B+ C F A+ B B+ F+ C- D-
0.87 58% 29% 23% -8 -1 0.85 36% 1.3 .45 27% .35 68% .24 1.19 70% 33% 38% +6 0 1.14 47% 0.8 .37 19% .40 71% .28
Dec
8		 Grambling St. D- A+ B F C- 45% 26% 30% D C- C+ F+ D+ F F B+ D- B B A+ F D+ 49% 22% 29% D+ D F A+ A A+ F A+ F
0.99 76% 42% 14% 0 0 1.02 34% 0.9 .31 25% .27 79% .21 0.87 50% 0% 58% -2 +1 1.00 42% 0.4 .16 31% .52 60% .31
Dec
13		 Mississippi C- D- A+ F B 37% 30% 33% C- B- C- C+ C D- B+ D- B- B D D+ A+ B 35% 30% 35% D- B- A+ F B+ C- F A- F
1.00 47% 64% 27% 0 -1 1.00 27% 1.1 .30 21% .38 65% .25 1.06 69% 43% 25% 0 -2 1.00 14% 1.8 .25 12% .44 69% .31
Dec
18		 Louisiana F F D- D+ F 26% 31% 43% F F F A+ F+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A- 20% 49% 31% A+ A A+ A+ A+ D C F+ C-
0.91 9% 31% 33% -16 -2 0.67 18% 1.3 .23 12% .65 67% .43 0.80 36% 41% 24% -8 -5 0.76 13% 0.4 .05 15% .22 77% .17
Dec
20		 Arkansas St. B A D+ A+ A- 28% 40% 32% F B- C A B C A+ A+ A+ F B A+ D+ B+ 43% 16% 41% C- B F+ F F F F F F
1.20 71% 35% 44% +7 -3 1.10 28% 1.3 .34 15% .44 93% .41 1.30 52% 13% 35% -6 +1 0.92 43% 1.6 .70 13% .53 82% .43
Dec
29		 LSU F+ B- F F F 24% 49% 27% F F C+ F F+ B- A+ B+ A+ D F F+ C+ D- 20% 35% 44% A+ C B+ F C F D B+ C-
0.88 58% 25% 23% -11 -5 0.71 31% 0.5 .15 14% .48 72% .35 1.28 82% 47% 33% +8 -3 1.11 29% 1.4 .41 9% .39 72% .28
Jan
1		 Louisiana Monroe D+ B+ A+ C B 49% 13% 38% B- B+ C F D- F C A+ B B A- D C+ C+ 39% 21% 39% C- C+ A+ F C D+ D+ A C+
1.13 69% 71% 35% +10 +2 1.26 36% 0.9 .32 22% .25 87% .22 0.95 45% 42% 32% -5 0 0.91 14% 1.7 .24 16% .34 64% .22
Jan
3		 Louisiana C A+ D+ F B 49% 22% 29% C- B- B- F D F A+ A+ A+ B- D C C- D+ 21% 44% 35% A C- D+ F F A- F+ D- F+
1.09 80% 33% 25% +6 +1 1.15 35% 0.8 .26 25% .59 83% .49 0.99 60% 38% 35% +1 -4 0.96 29% 1.8 .52 21% .30 75% .22
Jan
8		 Texas St. D A D- D- D+ 41% 36% 23% F D- D+ C+ C- D+ B+ B- B+ A- A- D+ A A- 38% 21% 41% D B+ A- D C+ C- F+ A+ C-
1.04 70% 30% 31% +1 -2 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 19% .39 75% .29 0.91 48% 42% 26% -8 0 0.86 27% 1.0 .27 18% .35 64% .22
Jan
10		 Louisiana Monroe F C F F F 35% 27% 37% F F F A+ D B A+ D A+ B+ A+ A+ D B+ 42% 6% 52% F C+ F+ A+ B+ B+ C+ B- B-
1.03 61% 21% 26% -8 -1 0.84 23% 1.6 .36 13% .41 67% .27 0.88 40% 0% 36% -8 +2 0.90 31% 0.6 .18 21% .30 69% .20
Jan
14		 Troy F+ C+ A- F F 41% 26% 33% C- F B- C+ B- F A- D B F D- A+ F F 52% 7% 41% F+ F D B+ C+ F B- B- B-
0.92 58% 50% 13% -7 0 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 26% .34 67% .23 1.29 64% 0% 50% +10 +3 1.28 36% 0.8 .30 11% .27 71% .19
Jan
17		 Texas St. F+ D A F F 38% 34% 28% F F F C+ F D+ A A+ A+ C+ A- F F D 49% 21% 31% F D A B- A- A+ F D F
0.94 53% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.90 16% 1.0 .16 20% .42 83% .35 1.03 47% 50% 42% +1 +1 1.05 24% 0.8 .20 25% .65 80% .52
Jan
22		 Georgia St. F B- F F F 31% 33% 37% F F F A+ F B- C+ D C B A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 49% F+ A F+ F F B F A- F
0.86 63% 29% 21% -9 -2 0.81 15% 1.3 .21 15% .31 68% .21 0.96 38% 22% 24% -17 -1 0.67 33% 1.7 .56 19% .50 72% .36
Jan
24		 Coastal Carolina D+ A- D F C 33% 45% 22% F+ C- F A+ D- B A F+ B F D F+ F F 33% 24% 42% D F C D+ C- A+ F+ D F+
0.99 65% 35% 27% -1 -4 0.92 14% 1.4 .20 10% .38 65% .25 1.26 60% 45% 63% +21 -1 1.42 25% 1.0 .25 22% .32 76% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Appalachian St. F+ D+ C- F D- 39% 35% 27% F+ F+ B F D+ F A+ C- A+ C A+ A- F C 48% 15% 37% D- C- A A+ A+ D F F F
0.95 53% 35% 23% -7 -2 0.84 36% 0.7 .24 18% .48 69% .33 1.05 41% 29% 47% -2 +1 1.00 23% 0.5 .11 14% .50 76% .38
Jan
31		 James Madison D+ B- D- D- D+ 37% 39% 24% F D D B C- F+ A+ A+ A+ B+ B- D- A+ A+ 49% 16% 36% D A B F D+ C- F A+ F
1.09 60% 31% 30% -3 -3 0.90 25% 1.1 .29 16% .61 82% .50 0.97 55% 43% 19% -9 +1 0.87 25% 1.3 .33 16% .47 58% .27
Feb
4		 Marshall B- A+ F A+ B- 12% 35% 53% F C A+ D B F A+ C- A+ D- F F D- F 32% 30% 38% B- F B- D- C C- F B+ F
1.16 100% 13% 43% +4 -4 1.02 46% 0.8 .38 21% .57 70% .40 1.22 80% 50% 39% +13 -2 1.26 29% 1.2 .35 17% .40 68% .27
Feb
7		 Kent St. D F D+ F+ F 38% 32% 30% F+ F A- D- C+ D+ A+ A A+ B A+ F A- B+ 34% 16% 50% C B B+ B- B F A- A+ A+
1.02 44% 33% 29% -9 -1 0.81 38% 0.9 .33 17% .44 79% .35 1.00 41% 63% 28% -6 0 0.90 30% 1.0 .30 14% .32 44% .14
Feb
12		 South Alabama D+ C- F A- C 49% 11% 40% B+ C+ D A+ A- F A+ B+ A+ D F D- F F 32% 19% 49% B+ F A+ A- A+ C F A F
1.04 59% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 27% 1.8 .47 28% .52 79% .41 1.12 87% 44% 39% +14 0 1.30 13% 1.0 .13 13% .57 57% .32
Feb
14		 Troy D+ F A F F 57% 25% 18% B- F A B- A B- C A+ B B+ D- F A C- 54% 4% 41% F D+ D A+ B A+ C- A+ B+
1.04 38% 54% 0% -16 +1 0.71 42% 1.1 .47 15% .29 81% .23 0.98 64% 50% 26% -1 +3 1.07 37% 0.7 .26 23% .31 56% .18
Feb
21		 Old Dominion D C+ F+ A+ A 55% 22% 22% B- A A+ F C- F A+ F A+ C+ A+ C F B- 38% 26% 36% C- C+ C- F F A+ F D- F
1.06 63% 27% 55% +7 +1 1.18 47% 0.6 .30 32% .55 67% .36 1.00 40% 36% 42% -3 -1 0.94 26% 1.6 .41 23% .44 78% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.4 0.4 4th
5th 2.9 2.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 3.1 6th
7th 4.4 0.5 4.9 7th
8th 2.8 23.5 26.3 8th
9th 37.9 8.9 46.8 9th
10th 14.6 14.6 10th
11th 1.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 56.3 37.0 6.7 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 6.7% 3.0% 3.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.5
9-9 37.0% 1.3% 1.3% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 36.5
8-10 56.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.1 0.1 56.2
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.1 99.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 14.6 5.0 36.7 55.0 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%
Lose Out 44.2%