Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 #201
Expected Predictive Rating -0.7 #173
Pace 70.5 #147
Improvement -0.6 #212

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #219 D+ C D+ B+ F
Defense #185 D+ B- C C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #174 1.20 #130 +0.8 #146
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #19 0.79 #124 +4.8 #16
Three Pointers 30% #354 0.79 #358 -8.8 #359
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #265 -3.3 #265
Freethrows 19.8 #66 76% #87 15.0 #52
Second Chance 32.2% #138 1.01 #230 0.33 #160
Turnovers 18.0% #262
Total Offense -2.0 #219

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #255 1.15 #165 +1.7 #117
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #142 0.77 #203 -0.6 #227
Three Pointers 43% #131 1.13 #323 -3.4 #313
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #256 -2.3 #257
Freethrows 18.5 #243 70% #84 13.0 #151
Second Chance 27.9% #85 1.01 #153 0.28 #96
Turnovers 16.7% #175
Total Defense -0.4 #185

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.7% #331 -0.6% #113
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.8% #233 5.1% #276
Possession Length 17.9 #239 16.7 #87
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #181 0.20 #272
Improvement -3.3 #346 +2.8 #39

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 7.5% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 68.3% 70.8% 42.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.5% 89.4% 67.9%
Conference Champion 7.7% 8.2% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round7.2% 7.5% 3.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 91.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 413 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 179 @Buffalo L 79 - 85 35%  +3  0 - 1 -4 +9 A- B F -14 D- C- F
 Sun, Nov 9 72 @South Carolina L 79 - 83 OT 11%  -2  0 - 2 +7 +6 C B+ A- +1 D A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 246 @Grambling St. L 70 - 75 47%  -6  0 - 3 -7 -2 F A+ A+ -5 F A- A-
 Sat, Nov 22 350 North Florida W 92 - 83 84%  -0  1 - 3 -4 +7 C+ B C- -11 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 235 Tennessee Martin W 70 - 60 56%  +17  2 - 3 +6 +14 C+ B B+ -6 F A- C+
 Wed, Dec 3 234 @Radford W 82 - 75 44%  +6  3 - 3 +6 +2 F D- C- +4 A- B+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 36 @Miami (FL) L 64 - 88 5%  -5  3 - 4 -7 -4 D A- F -2 C B A+
 Mon, Dec 8 246 Grambling St. W 68 - 60 70%  -1  4 - 4 +0 -6 C- D- F +7 C A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 71 Mississippi L 67 - 71 16%  -3  4 - 5 +4 +1 C+ C D- +3 C+ B+ D+
 Thu, Dec 18 310 Louisiana W 62 - 54 81%  +2  5 - 5 1 - 0 -4 -12 F F A+ +8 A- A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 126 Arkansas St. L 86 - 93 45%  -3  5 - 6 1 - 1 -8 +10 C+ B+ C- -18 B F F
 Mon, Dec 29 42 @LSU L 62 - 90 6%  -14  5 - 7 -13 -5 F F C+ -8 C C F
 Thu, Jan 1 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 73 79%  +11  6 - 7 2 - 1 +3 -0 B F F +2 B- C C-
 Sat, Jan 3 310 @Louisiana W 74 - 67 63%  +2  7 - 7 3 - 1 +1 +3 B D F -2 D F B
 Thu, Jan 8 268 Texas St. W 80 - 70 OT 74%  -0  8 - 7 4 - 1 +1 -4 F D+ D+ +4 B- C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 356 Louisiana Monroe W 86 - 72 91% 
 Wed, Jan 14 137 @Troy L 69 - 76 26% 
 Sat, Jan 17 268 @Texas St. W 72 - 71 53% 
 Thu, Jan 22 304 @Georgia St. W 75 - 72 59% 
 Sat, Jan 24 270 @Coastal Carolina W 73 - 72 54% 
 Thu, Jan 29 224 Appalachian St. W 69 - 65 64% 
 Sat, Jan 31 204 James Madison W 75 - 72 61% 
 Wed, Feb 4 159 @Marshall L 73 - 78 32% 
 Sat, Feb 7 138 Kent St. L 80 - 81 47% 
 Thu, Feb 12 200 South Alabama W 70 - 67 61% 
 Sat, Feb 14 137 Troy L 72 - 73 46% 
 Sat, Feb 21 250 Old Dominion W 78 - 72 70% 
 Tue, Feb 24 126 @Arkansas St. L 76 - 83 25% 
 Fri, Feb 27 200 @South Alabama L 67 - 70 40% 
Totals 15 - 14 11 - 7 -2 -2 D+ C D+ +0 D+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.9 1.9 0.6 0.0 7.7 1st
2nd 0.2 3.0 5.5 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.8 6.7 3.7 0.4 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 7.5 5.1 0.7 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.5 6.2 6.4 1.2 0.0 14.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.1 7.3 1.7 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.5 2.9 0.1 9.7 7th
8th 0.3 3.0 3.4 0.3 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 2.7 0.8 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.4 7.8 13.3 18.5 18.8 16.3 11.9 6.0 2.1 0.6 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 98.4% 0.6    0.6 0.1
15-3 87.7% 1.9    1.2 0.6 0.1
14-4 48.8% 2.9    1.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.8% 2.0    0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 3.3 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.6% 34.9% 34.9% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 2.1% 25.8% 25.8% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.6
14-4 6.0% 21.2% 21.2% 14.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 4.7
13-5 11.9% 17.7% 17.7% 14.5 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 9.8
12-6 16.3% 10.4% 10.4% 14.7 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 14.6
11-7 18.8% 4.5% 4.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 17.9
10-8 18.5% 1.8% 1.8% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 18.2
9-9 13.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.1 0.1 13.1
8-10 7.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 7.7
7-11 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
6-12 1.1% 1.1
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 14.5 92.8 0.0%