Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.2 #250
Expected Predictive Rating -4.3 #232
Pace 70.9 #122
Improvement -3.8 #332

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #297 D C D+ B+ D-
Defense #181 C- C+ C D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #195 1.19 #139 +0.1 #168
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #14 0.75 #176 +4.6 #16
Three Pointers 29% #356 0.73 #365 -10.1 #364
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #328 -5.4 #329
Freethrows 0.35 #38 75% #85 0.27 #27
Second Chance 29.4% #220 1.04 #151 0.31 #195
Turnovers 18.1% #278
Total Offense -4.7 #297

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #168 1.10 #110 +0.7 #148
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #228 0.76 #186 +0.7 #139
Three Pointers 42% #139 1.16 #343 -3.7 #325
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #262 -2.3 #264
Freethrows 0.34 #308 71% #93 0.24 #285
Second Chance 28.9% #110 1.01 #146 0.29 #117
Turnovers 17.1% #154
Total Defense -0.5 #181

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.2% #340 0.6% #218
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.5% #308 3.9% #257
Possession Length 17.8 #233 16.7 #90
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #169 0.21 #295
Improvement -5.9 #361 +2.1 #68

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 2.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 12.0% 27.6% 7.7%
.500 or above in Conference 39.6% 70.4% 31.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.9% 2.1% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Away) - 21.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 63 - 11
Quad 410 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 204 @Buffalo L 79 - 85 30% +3  0 - 1 -6 +8 B B- F -14 D D+ D-
 Sun, Nov 9 91 @South Carolina L 79 - 83 OT 10% -2  0 - 2 +5 +5 C C+ B+ +0 D A+ A
 Thu, Nov 13 287 @Grambling St. L 70 - 75 46% -6  0 - 3 -9 -2 F A+ A- -7 F B- B
 Sat, Nov 22 351 North Florida W 92 - 83 76% -0  1 - 3 -4 +5 C B- C- -8 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 203 Tennessee Martin W 70 - 60 40% +14  2 - 3 +7 +16 B- A+ A- -6 D- A F
 Wed, Dec 3 234 @Radford W 82 - 75 35% +6  3 - 3 +6 +2 F D+ C- +4 B+ C+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 40 @Miami (FL) L 64 - 88 4% -5  3 - 4 -8 -5 D- A+ F -2 C B- A-
 Mon, Dec 8 287 Grambling St. W 68 - 60 69% -1  4 - 4 -2 -7 D+ D+ F +4 C- A- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 59 Mississippi L 67 - 71 9% -3  4 - 5 +5 +3 B- C D +3 C+ B+ C-
 Thu, Dec 18 303 Louisiana W 62 - 54 72% +2  5 - 5 1 - 0 -3 -12 F D- A+ +9 A- A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 168 Arkansas St. L 86 - 93 44% -3  5 - 6 1 - 1 -11 +8 C+ B C- -19 B- F F
 Mon, Dec 29 49 @LSU L 62 - 90 5% -14  5 - 7 -14 -6 F F+ B- -8 C C+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 73 75% +11  6 - 7 2 - 1 +2 +1 B D F +0 C C C-
 Sat, Jan 3 303 @Louisiana W 74 - 67 50% +2  7 - 7 3 - 1 +2 +3 B- D F -1 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 8 259 Texas St. W 80 - 70 OT 63% -0  8 - 7 4 - 1 +1 -2 D C- D+ +3 B- C C
 Sat, Jan 10 360 Louisiana Monroe W 70 - 60 88% -0  9 - 7 5 - 1 -8 -10 F C- B +2 C+ B- B
 Wed, Jan 14 140 @Troy L 65 - 91 19% -12  9 - 8 5 - 2 -22 -6 F B- F -15 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 259 @Texas St. L 67 - 74 40% -3  9 - 9 5 - 3 -10 -7 F F+ D -3 D- B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 268 @Georgia St. L 62 - 69 42% -2  9 - 10 5 - 4 -10 -12 F F C+ +3 A F B
 Sat, Jan 24 239 @Coastal Carolina L 67 - 85 36% -12  9 - 11 5 - 5 -19 -3 C- D- B- -18 F C- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 172 Appalachian St. L 63 - 70 45% -2  9 - 12 5 - 6 -11 -6 D- D+ D- -5 C- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 205 James Madison W 73 - 65 52% +5  10 - 12 6 - 6 +2 -1 D C- F+ +4 A- C- C-
 Wed, Feb 4 153 @Marshall L 71 - 79 21%
 Sat, Feb 7 145 Kent St. L 76 - 79 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 194 South Alabama W 69 - 68 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 140 Troy L 71 - 74 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 243 Old Dominion W 75 - 73 58%
 Tue, Feb 24 168 @Arkansas St. L 75 - 82 24%
 Fri, Feb 27 194 @South Alabama L 65 - 71 29%
Totals 13 - 16 8 - 10 -5 -5 D C D+ +0 C- C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.5 1.3 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.7 4.8 0.1 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 4.6 3.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.6 10.2 0.4 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 4.2 7.4 0.0 11.6 8th
9th 0.4 11.9 2.0 14.3 9th
10th 3.6 10.6 0.2 14.3 10th
11th 0.4 9.5 3.4 13.3 11th
12th 2.9 7.7 0.3 10.9 12th
13th 3.4 1.5 4.9 13th
14th 14th
Total 6.7 22.7 31.0 25.0 11.5 2.8 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 34.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 3.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 26.5% 26.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 2.8% 8.3% 8.3% 15.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6
10-8 11.5% 2.4% 2.4% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.2
9-9 25.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.1 0.2 24.7
8-10 31.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 30.9
7-11 22.7% 22.7
6-12 6.7% 6.7
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.3 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.7%