Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#282
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#243
Pace69.3#174
Improvement+0.8#128

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#298
First Shot-4.1#297
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#207
Layup/Dunks-0.4#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#99
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#274
Freethrows-2.0#293
Improvement+0.7#124

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#235
First Shot-0.6#193
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#299
Layups/Dunks-3.4#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#54
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#125
Freethrows-0.4#220
Improvement+0.1#171
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.4% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 5.7% 14.7% 4.1%
.500 or above in Conference 24.7% 45.4% 21.2%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 3.4% 11.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.5% 1.3% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Away) - 14.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 32 - 93 - 13
Quad 48 - 611 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 289   Bowling Green W 77-68 63%     1 - 0 -0.9 -5.9 +4.4
  Nov 07, 2024 127   @ UAB L 84-98 14%     1 - 1 -8.9 +0.1 -7.4
  Nov 20, 2024 120   @ South Dakota St. L 76-101 13%     1 - 2 -19.3 -7.4 -7.5
  Nov 24, 2024 155   @ Montana St. L 59-79 18%     1 - 3 -16.9 -15.3 -0.8
  Nov 25, 2024 212   Abilene Christian L 74-82 35%     1 - 4 -10.6 +5.2 -16.3
  Nov 30, 2024 132   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 66-65 31%     2 - 4 -0.4 -3.0 +2.8
  Dec 05, 2024 291   Alabama St. W 81-64 63%     3 - 4 +7.0 -2.3 +8.4
  Dec 10, 2024 202   @ Tulane L 58-86 23%     3 - 5 -26.9 -14.5 -12.3
  Dec 14, 2024 28   Mississippi L 46-77 4%     3 - 6 -17.5 -16.7 -3.8
  Dec 17, 2024 196   Lamar L 65-69 43%     3 - 7 -8.7 -7.3 -1.6
  Dec 21, 2024 199   Marshall W 68-66 43%     4 - 7 1 - 0 -2.8 +6.6 -9.0
  Jan 02, 2025 135   @ James Madison L 66-77 14%    
  Jan 04, 2025 308   @ Old Dominion L 72-73 44%    
  Jan 09, 2025 334   Louisiana Monroe W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 11, 2025 126   Texas St. L 67-73 29%    
  Jan 15, 2025 156   @ South Alabama L 62-72 18%    
  Jan 18, 2025 126   @ Texas St. L 64-76 14%    
  Jan 23, 2025 119   @ Troy L 64-76 13%    
  Jan 25, 2025 286   @ Louisiana L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 29, 2025 105   Arkansas St. L 69-77 23%    
  Feb 01, 2025 242   Georgia Southern W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 05, 2025 175   @ Appalachian St. L 62-71 21%    
  Feb 12, 2025 105   @ Arkansas St. L 66-80 10%    
  Feb 15, 2025 334   @ Louisiana Monroe W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 20, 2025 277   Coastal Carolina W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 286   Louisiana W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 26, 2025 156   South Alabama L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 28, 2025 119   Troy L 67-73 28%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.4 2.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 4.5 1.1 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 5.8 2.7 0.1 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 5.8 4.7 0.6 12.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.8 6.5 1.3 0.0 13.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.8 6.8 2.3 0.1 13.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.9 3.1 0.3 0.0 12.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.3 13th
14th 0.2 1.3 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.1 14th
Total 0.2 1.5 4.2 8.5 13.3 16.3 16.7 14.6 11.0 6.9 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 91.7% 0.0    0.0
15-3 88.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 53.8% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 13.9% 13.9% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 8.3% 8.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.8% 7.9% 7.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-6 1.9% 5.0% 5.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
11-7 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.6
10-8 6.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.1 0.0 6.8
9-9 11.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.0
8-10 14.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.5
7-11 16.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 16.7
6-12 16.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.3
5-13 13.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.3
4-14 8.5% 8.5
3-15 4.2% 4.2
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%