St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.2 19
Results Rating +17.8 22
Pace 73.9 46
Improvement +0.6 170

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 40 C+ A B+ A B
Defense A 11 A- B A B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 16 C 58% 183 +4.4 40
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 260 C+ 39% 139 -1.8 271
Three Pointers 38% 241 C 34% 182 -1.4 233
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.2 37 C -0.1 176
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 139
Second Chance A- 37.8% 18 A- 1.19 22 A 0.45 9
Turnovers B+ 13.8% 27
Freethrows A 0.40 4 C+ 74% 146 A 0.29 5
Total Offense B+ +7.9 40

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 68 C 10.9% 173
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A+ 51% 4 B+ 1.9% 17
Three Pointers C 85% 175 B+ 0.2% 23
Total B 63% 46 C+ 5.4% 166

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 71 A 47% 8 -2.4 97
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 63 B- 36% 93 +0.9 260
Three Pointers 33% 358 B 31% 74 -5.5 6
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 136 A -6.7 12
1st FG Attempt A- 0.88 16
Second Chance B- 28.1% 88 B 0.93 47 B 0.26 55
Turnovers A 21.4% 12
Freethrows B- 0.28 110 C+ 72% 129 B- 0.20 105
Total Defense A +10.3 11

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 38% 19 B- 14.1% 68
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 20 B- 6.9% 68
Three Pointers B+ 77% 28 A+ 3.0% 7
Total A 43% 7 A- 8.7% 19

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.0 12 18.5 330
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 10 0.13 52
Improvement -3.0 #318 +3.6 #32

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 23 18 11
Results Rating Rank 27 21 7
Conference Record 16 - 4 18 - 2 19 - 1
Conference Finish 2 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed 7 5 3
NCAA Tourney Finish 1st Round 2nd Round Final 4

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 1% 2% 0%
Top 2 Seed 3% 10% 1%
Top 4 Seed 29% 49% 20%
Top 6 Seed 85% 95% 80%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 99%
Average Seed 5.1 4.4 5.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 70% 99% 55%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round84% 89% 81%
Sweet Sixteen42% 49% 38%
Elite Eight16% 20% 15%
Final Four7% 8% 6%
Championship Game2% 3% 2%
National Champion1% 1% 1%

Next Game: Connecticut (Away) - 32.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 6
Quad 29 - 115 - 6
Quad 38 - 123 - 7
Quad 43 - 027 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 192 Quinnipiac W 108 - 74 97% +22  99% 1 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +15 A+ A- C+ A- +8 B- A- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 18 Alabama L 96 - 103 61% -4  13% 1 - 1 B +8 B+ +7 B+ A C B- +2 B+ C- F+
 Sat, Nov 15 136 William & Mary W 93 - 60 96% +15  96% 2 - 1 A+ +32 B- +4 C B- A A+ +23 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 330 Bucknell W 97 - 49 99% +17  76% 3 - 1 A+ +34 B+ +9 B+ C+ C A+ +21 A+ A- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 8 Iowa St. L 82 - 83 40% -2  29% 3 - 2 A +20 A+ +19 C A+ A+ C+ +0 A+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 44 Baylor W 96 - 81 74% +12  99% 4 - 2 A+ +26 A+ +22 A+ A+ B+ B +4 A+ B- C+
 Wed, Nov 26 33 Auburn L 74 - 85 64% -0  45% 4 - 3 C+ +4 B +6 D- A+ D C- -3 D F+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 72 Mississippi W 63 - 58 89% +7  89% 5 - 3 B +10 F -11 F A+ F A+ +21 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 249 Iona W 91 - 64 98% +8  78% 6 - 3 A +19 B +5 A B+ F A+ +11 A+ C C
 Tue, Dec 16 93 DePaul W 79 - 66 92% +10  95% 7 - 3 1 - 0 A- +16 B+ +7 B+ C A+ A +8 A+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 20 25 Kentucky L 66 - 78 59% -1  53% 7 - 4 C+ +4 C- -1 F A+ C B +5 A- D A+
 Tue, Dec 23 146 Harvard W 85 - 59 96% +10  65% 8 - 4 A+ +24 A +12 A- A+ D+ A+ +12 B A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 71 @Georgetown W 95 - 83 76% +6  67% 9 - 4 2 - 0 A +23 A+ +25 A+ A+ B- C- -2 D B- B+
 Sat, Jan 3 61 Providence L 71 - 77 87% +5  90% 9 - 5 2 - 1 C -0 F -10 F A D+ A +11 A+ F C+
 Tue, Jan 6 75 @Butler W 84 - 70 76% +4  53% 10 - 5 3 - 1 A+ +25 A- +10 B C+ A+ A+ +14 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 63 @Creighton W 90 - 73 73% +13  83% 11 - 5 4 - 1 A+ +29 A+ +23 A+ C A+ A- +7 C- A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 88 Marquette W 92 - 68 91% +11  99% 12 - 5 5 - 1 A+ +27 A +13 B- A+ A A+ +13 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 35 @Villanova W 86 - 79 53% +5  81% 13 - 5 6 - 1 A+ +24 A+ +17 B+ A- A+ A- +7 C C- A
 Tue, Jan 20 54 Seton Hall W 65 - 60 85% -4  14% 14 - 5 7 - 1 B+ +12 B- +5 F A+ A A- +8 B C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 84 @Xavier W 88 - 83 78% -3  34% 15 - 5 8 - 1 A- +15 B+ +9 C A+ A B+ +5 D+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 75 Butler W 92 - 70 89% +13  97% 16 - 5 9 - 1 A+ +27 A+ +28 A+ A+ A+ C+ +1 A- A F
 Tue, Feb 3 93 @DePaul W 68 - 56 81% +4  66% 17 - 5 10 - 1 A +21 B- +4 F A+ A+ A+ +18 A+ B A+
 Fri, Feb 6 9 Connecticut W 81 - 72 55% +3  72% 18 - 5 11 - 1 A+ +26 A+ +15 A A+ A A +11 D+ A A+
 Mon, Feb 9 84 Xavier W 87 - 82 OT 90% +0  52% 19 - 5 12 - 1 B +9 C- -1 C F+ A A +9 A C- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 61 @Providence W 79 - 69 73% +7  90% 20 - 5 13 - 1 A +22 C- -1 F B+ A+ A+ +22 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Feb 18 88 @Marquette W 76 - 70 80% +3  75% 21 - 5 14 - 1 A- +15 B +7 C A- B+ A +8 A- C C
 Sat, Feb 21 63 Creighton W 81 - 52 88% +16  99% 22 - 5 15 - 1 A+ +35 C +2 B- C- C+ A+ +31 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Feb 25 9 @Connecticut L 71 - 76 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 35 Villanova W 76 - 69 74%
 Tue, Mar 3 71 Georgetown W 82 - 69 90%
 Fri, Mar 6 54 @Seton Hall W 70 - 65 69%
Totals 25 - 6 18 - 2 +18 B+ +8 A+ C B A +10 C C+ A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ C C+ C C 46% 30% 38% B C+ A- A- A B+ A C+ A A A B- B A 43% 24% 33% C+ A- B- B B A B- C+ B-
1.20 58% 39% 34% 0 +1 1.04 38% 1.2 .45 14% .40 74% .29 0.94 47% 36% 31% -7 0 0.88 28% 0.9 .26 21% .28 72% .28
Nov
3		 Quinnipiac A+ B+ F A+ A+ 64% 7% 29% A+ A+ A C A- C+ A+ F A+ A- A- D- B B- 42% 30% 28% B- B- C- A+ A- A+ D+ C+ C-
1.29 65% 25% 47% +9 +4 1.28 43% 1.0 .43 17% .49 65% .32 0.89 46% 41% 31% -5 -1 0.89 33% 0.7 .23 26% .31 68% .21
Nov
8		 Alabama B+ B- A F B 48% 26% 26% B B+ C- A+ A C A+ B- A+ B- C- D B+ B+ 39% 17% 43% B B+ B F C- F+ B+ A+ A+
1.14 57% 47% 27% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.5 .38 14% .55 70% .39 1.22 63% 50% 30% +1 0 1.06 30% 1.4 .41 8% .28 64% .18
Nov
15		 William & Mary B- C+ A+ F C- 50% 10% 40% A- C A- D B- A B- D+ C+ A+ A+ A A A+ 34% 14% 52% B A+ D+ F F A+ A+ A+ A+
1.16 61% 67% 24% -2 +2 1.03 39% 0.9 .37 14% .32 68% .22 0.75 41% 29% 27% -13 +1 0.78 29% 1.5 .42 30% .21 42% .09
Nov
20		 Bucknell B+ A+ B- C- B 47% 13% 40% A- B+ A+ F C+ C A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% C- A+ B+ A A- A+ F A F
1.28 76% 43% 33% +9 +2 1.23 49% 0.8 .37 17% .45 75% .33 0.65 32% 25% 21% -21 +1 0.61 21% 0.9 .18 32% .42 68% .29
Nov
24		 Iowa St. A+ D- F B C- 46% 19% 35% A C A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ 43% 24% 33% B- A+ F+ F F B- F F F
1.20 50% 22% 35% -6 +1 0.92 42% 1.2 .50 15% .51 77% .39 1.21 43% 25% 44% -5 0 0.92 45% 1.3 .58 16% .43 80% .35
Nov
25		 Baylor A+ C+ C- A+ A- 48% 15% 37% A+ A+ C A+ A+ B+ A+ F+ A- B A+ C B+ A+ 42% 22% 36% F A+ F A+ B- C+ B F C-
1.34 62% 38% 45% +8 +1 1.20 29% 1.9 .55 14% .36 68% .24 1.13 43% 42% 30% -7 0 0.87 51% 0.8 .39 15% .28 88% .25
Nov
26		 Auburn B D+ F F F 44% 10% 46% A D- A+ A+ A+ D A+ C+ A+ C- F B F F+ 49% 24% 27% B D F C- F+ A F+ F F
1.11 52% 20% 27% -9 +2 0.88 45% 1.3 .57 21% .53 75% .40 1.28 73% 36% 42% +10 0 1.22 48% 1.1 .52 18% .46 84% .38
Dec
6		 Mississippi F F F F F 40% 13% 48% A F A B+ A+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 43% 28% 28% F A+ F+ A+ B A+ F D- F
0.88 31% 20% 21% -22 +1 0.60 39% 1.2 .47 28% .68 71% .48 0.81 55% 23% 15% -13 -1 0.74 36% 0.8 .28 28% .39 80% .31
Dec
13		 Iona B C+ A+ A A- 42% 8% 50% A- A C A B+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A A- A+ A+ 52% 21% 26% D A+ D+ B C C A+ C- A+
1.20 62% 50% 40% +7 +2 1.20 34% 1.2 .41 22% .42 84% .36 0.84 44% 31% 25% -13 +1 0.79 27% 0.9 .25 17% .11 71% .08
Dec
16		 DePaul B+ D+ D A+ B- 47% 12% 41% A+ B+ C+ C- C A+ B A+ A A A+ D- A+ A+ 36% 22% 41% C+ A+ B F C- C A+ F A+
1.13 50% 33% 43% +1 +2 1.08 29% 0.9 .26 14% .35 81% .28 0.94 38% 46% 25% -11 0 0.79 28% 1.4 .38 17% .09 100% .09
Dec
20		 Kentucky C- F+ F F F 31% 29% 40% C- F B+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ B A+ F C+ A- 45% 30% 26% B+ A- F A- D A+ F+ F F
0.95 46% 17% 24% -16 -2 0.67 32% 1.2 .38 17% .56 84% .47 1.13 43% 57% 33% -1 -1 0.98 48% 1.0 .48 23% .41 82% .34
Dec
23		 Harvard A D+ A+ A+ B 57% 2% 42% A+ A- A+ C A+ D+ B+ B+ A- A+ F A- A+ B- 35% 27% 38% A- B A A+ A+ A- B C- B
1.25 53% 100% 41% +3 +4 1.15 47% 1.0 .47 18% .32 78% .25 0.87 82% 31% 22% 0 -1 1.00 19% 0.3 .06 22% .21 82% .17
Dec
31		 Georgetown A+ D F+ A+ A+ 29% 21% 50% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B+ A+ C- B+ D- F D- 40% 26% 34% C+ D D- A+ B- B+ D- D F+
1.36 50% 30% 50% +8 -1 1.17 42% 1.6 .70 16% .44 77% .34 1.19 50% 46% 47% +6 -1 1.12 39% 0.9 .33 17% .40 78% .31
Jan
3		 Providence F F B- F F 40% 18% 42% B F A+ D A D+ A+ F+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 52% 19% 29% C- A+ C- F F C+ F C+ F
0.95 32% 40% 17% -21 0 0.62 46% 0.9 .41 16% .59 65% .38 1.03 48% 10% 27% -14 +1 0.77 37% 1.5 .56 16% .44 75% .33
Jan
6		 Butler A- B B- A- B+ 37% 33% 30% F+ B F+ A+ C+ A+ C B C+ A+ F B+ F F 38% 27% 36% A+ D- A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F D
1.18 64% 40% 39% +5 -2 1.08 20% 1.4 .29 7% .23 73% .17 0.98 71% 33% 44% +9 -1 1.18 22% 0.7 .15 29% .36 83% .30
Jan
10		 Creighton A+ B- B- A+ A+ 28% 33% 39% D- A+ B+ F C A+ A D B+ A- D C D- D+ 27% 20% 53% B+ C- A+ A+ A+ C- F+ F F
1.34 60% 39% 57% +14 -2 1.26 33% 0.8 .28 9% .29 67% .20 1.09 69% 40% 38% +7 -1 1.14 7% 0.0 .00 13% .34 85% .29
Jan
13		 Marquette A B- A+ F C+ 54% 16% 30% A- B- A A A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F D+ C- 64% 5% 32% F D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A- F
1.23 61% 56% 24% 0 +2 1.05 41% 1.2 .47 16% .38 88% .34 0.91 57% 50% 36% +1 +4 1.11 21% 0.4 .09 25% .49 63% .31
Jan
17		 Villanova A+ B+ C B- B+ 45% 27% 29% B- B+ B+ B+ A- A+ A+ C- A+ A- A- D- F C 28% 20% 52% B+ C A+ F C- A F D F
1.21 64% 38% 36% +3 0 1.08 36% 1.1 .39 13% .50 68% .34 1.11 54% 44% 42% +6 -1 1.13 27% 1.4 .38 20% .42 75% .32
Jan
20		 Seton Hall B- D+ F F F 58% 21% 21% B F A+ B- A+ A A+ C- A+ A- A+ D+ F A- 60% 12% 28% F B F A+ C+ A- D- A+ B-
1.02 48% 22% 11% -16 +1 0.72 47% 1.0 .44 19% .58 70% .40 0.94 38% 40% 42% -8 +3 0.91 46% 0.7 .33 20% .39 55% .22
Jan
24		 Xavier B+ D B+ B C+ 40% 32% 28% D+ C B+ A+ A+ A A- D- B B+ B+ D F D+ 38% 29% 34% C D+ A+ A A+ B+ D F F
1.15 52% 44% 38% +1 -1 1.02 33% 1.2 .40 13% .35 65% .23 1.09 52% 44% 47% +6 -1 1.13 16% 0.8 .13 16% .29 84% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Butler A+ A A- A+ A+ 40% 21% 38% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A B C+ A+ F F+ A 54% 13% 33% D- A- B A A F F A+ C
1.47 71% 45% 45% +13 0 1.29 42% 1.2 .52 8% .24 79% .19 1.12 40% 50% 40% -5 +2 0.96 32% 0.9 .29 10% .53 50% .27
Feb
3		 DePaul B- F F D F 53% 13% 34% A+ F A- A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ 35% 26% 40% B A+ D A+ B A+ F+ D- F
1.04 32% 17% 31% -18 +2 0.70 37% 1.3 .46 11% .49 69% .34 0.85 60% 18% 24% -11 -1 0.79 34% 0.9 .31 23% .39 75% .30
Feb
6		 Connecticut A+ B- A+ D- A 48% 13% 39% A A B+ A+ A+ A A+ C A+ A A F F C- 53% 11% 36% F+ D+ A+ F A A+ A A+ A+
1.18 55% 67% 28% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.8 .55 15% .53 71% .37 1.05 52% 80% 47% +8 +2 1.23 21% 1.5 .31 22% .22 42% .09
Feb
9		 Xavier C- B F F C- 57% 22% 20% A- C B- F F+ A A+ C- A+ A A+ F B+ A+ 45% 35% 20% C+ A B+ F C- D+ B- A+ A
1.05 65% 25% 27% -1 +1 1.02 30% 0.4 .12 12% .56 68% .38 0.99 40% 52% 31% -4 -1 0.91 22% 1.3 .29 11% .23 53% .12
Feb
14		 Providence C- D- F F F 42% 28% 30% C- F D+ A+ B+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 33% 33% 35% A+ A+ C A+ A+ B+ D F+ F+
1.04 48% 24% 22% -14 -1 0.73 25% 1.5 .36 7% .42 70% .30 0.91 50% 22% 26% -12 -2 0.75 35% 0.8 .26 18% .39 83% .32
Feb
18		 Marquette B F A+ D+ C- 38% 17% 46% C+ C B A A- B+ A+ F A+ A B+ D- A- B+ 45% 21% 34% A A- B+ F C C B- F+ C+
1.11 44% 63% 32% -3 0 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 18% .42 67% .28 1.02 50% 45% 28% -5 0 0.92 26% 1.2 .32 15% .27 75% .21
Feb
21		 Creighton C B A- F B- 44% 33% 24% C- B- C+ D- C- C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ 42% 16% 42% D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D A C-
1.08 63% 44% 23% 0 -1 1.00 29% 0.9 .26 15% .36 87% .31 0.70 43% 13% 29% -14 +1 0.76 13% 0.8 .10 24% .32 67% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 10.2 43.3 15.9 69.6 1st
2nd 0.4 8.6 21.1 30.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.3 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.7 8.8 31.3 43.3 15.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 15.9    15.9
18-2 100.0% 43.3    20.2 23.1
17-3 32.6% 10.2    1.5 8.7
16-4 2.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-5 0.0%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 69.6% 69.6 37.6 31.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 15.9% 100.0% 42.0% 58.0% 3.8 0.6 2.3 3.7 4.5 3.2 1.4 0.1 100.0%
18-2 43.3% 100.0% 36.5% 63.5% 5.0 0.1 0.4 3.4 10.0 15.6 11.0 2.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 31.3% 99.6% 30.2% 69.5% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.3 9.1 11.4 5.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
16-4 8.8% 98.9% 26.0% 72.9% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.8 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.6%
15-5 0.7% 93.5% 20.0% 73.5% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.9%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.7% 34.3% 65.4% 5.1 0.3 99.6%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.7% 100.0% 2.7 8.9 32.5 36.5 19.5 2.6 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.0% 100.0% 4.3 0.2 2.8 18.2 37.9 30.2 10.2 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1% 100.0% 4.7 0.5 11.2 31.2 37.4 18.6 1.1
Lose Out 0.2% 82.5% 8.6 8.8 31.6 26.3 14.0 1.8