St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.5 #19
Expected Predictive Rating +15.7 #31
Pace 73.6 #61
Improvement -0.4 #202

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #23 C+ A B A B
Defense #20 B+ B- A C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #21 1.16 #170 +4.4 #45
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #294 0.78 #137 -1.8 #278
Three Pointers 39% #227 1.06 #110 -0.3 #192
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #114 +2.3 #114
Freethrows 0.38 #7 74% #115 0.29 #6
Second Chance 39.1% #12 1.17 #33 0.46 #12
Turnovers 14.1% #39
Total Offense +9.5 #23

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #68 0.95 #9 +2.1 #108
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #82 0.73 #129 -0.8 #250
Three Pointers 34% #349 0.96 #96 +4.7 #19
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #33 +5.9 #33
Freethrows 0.28 #133 72% #182 0.21 #132
Second Chance 29.1% #118 0.93 #61 0.27 #77
Turnovers 21.4% #12
Total Defense +8.0 #20

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #35 -0.1% #160
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.0% #142 -11.5% #22
Possession Length 14.9 #16 18.5 #337
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #21 0.14 #82
Improvement +0.0 #176 -0.4 #210

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.7% 3.3% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 22.2% 25.7% 8.6%
Top 6 Seed 61.5% 66.1% 43.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.0% 99.3% 97.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.6% 99.0% 97.3%
Average Seed 5.9 5.7 6.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 22.2% 25.3% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.9%
First Round98.9% 99.2% 97.5%
Second Round75.6% 77.8% 67.2%
Sweet Sixteen34.4% 36.7% 25.3%
Elite Eight13.8% 14.8% 10.1%
Final Four5.6% 6.0% 4.0%
Championship Game2.3% 2.6% 1.2%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.4%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 79.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 6
Quad 29 - 114 - 8
Quad 37 - 121 - 9
Quad 44 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 186 Quinnipiac W 108 - 74 97% +22  1 - 0 +29 +16 A+ B+ C +7 B A- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 20 Alabama L 96 - 103 62% -4  1 - 1 +7 +11 B+ A C -2 B+ C F+
 Sat, Nov 15 150 William & Mary W 93 - 60 96% +15  2 - 1 +31 +7 C B A+ +20 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 315 Bucknell W 97 - 49 99% +17  3 - 1 +36 +12 B+ C+ C +20 A+ A- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 4 Iowa St. L 82 - 83 33% -2  3 - 2 +21 +22 C A+ A+ -1 A+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 47 Baylor W 96 - 81 72% +12  4 - 2 +27 +25 A+ A+ B +2 A+ B- B-
 Wed, Nov 26 28 Auburn L 74 - 85 58% -0  4 - 3 +5 +10 D A+ D+ -6 D F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 59 Mississippi W 63 - 58 85% +7  5 - 3 +11 -7 F A+ F +19 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 231 Iona W 91 - 64 98% +8  6 - 3 +20 +9 A B F +8 A+ C C
 Tue, Dec 16 94 DePaul W 79 - 66 91% +10  7 - 3 1 - 0 +16 +9 B C A+ +6 A+ D+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 26 Kentucky L 66 - 78 57% -1  7 - 4 +4 +2 F A+ C +2 B+ D- A+
 Tue, Dec 23 165 Harvard W 85 - 59 96% +10  8 - 4 +23 +13 B+ A+ D+ +10 B A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 78 @Georgetown W 95 - 83 76% +6  9 - 4 2 - 0 +22 +27 A+ A+ C+ -5 D B- B+
 Sat, Jan 3 67 Providence L 71 - 77 87% +5  9 - 5 2 - 1 -1 -8 F A- D+ +8 A+ F B-
 Tue, Jan 6 66 @Butler W 84 - 70 72% +4  10 - 5 3 - 1 +25 +14 B C A+ +11 D A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 58 @Creighton W 90 - 73 69% +13  11 - 5 4 - 1 +29 +25 A+ C A+ +5 C- A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 95 Marquette W 92 - 68 91% +11  12 - 5 5 - 1 +27 +15 B- A+ A +10 D A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 32 @Villanova W 86 - 79 51% +5  13 - 5 6 - 1 +24 +20 B+ A- A+ +4 C C A
 Tue, Jan 20 53 Seton Hall W 65 - 60 83% -4  14 - 5 7 - 1 +12 +6 F+ A+ A +6 B- B A
 Sat, Jan 24 83 @Xavier W 88 - 83 77% -3  15 - 5 8 - 1 +15 +12 C A+ A +2 C- A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 66 Butler W 92 - 70 87% +13  16 - 5 9 - 1 +27 +31 A+ A+ A+ -1 B+ A+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 94 @DePaul W 79 - 70 79%
 Fri, Feb 6 9 Connecticut L 73 - 74 49%
 Mon, Feb 9 83 Xavier W 88 - 74 90%
 Sat, Feb 14 67 @Providence W 91 - 85 72%
 Wed, Feb 18 95 @Marquette W 84 - 75 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 58 Creighton W 85 - 74 85%
 Wed, Feb 25 9 @Connecticut L 71 - 77 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 32 Villanova W 76 - 70 72%
 Tue, Mar 3 78 Georgetown W 83 - 70 89%
 Fri, Mar 6 53 @Seton Hall W 73 - 69 66%
Totals 23 - 8 16 - 4 +18 +9 C+ A B +8 B+ B- A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.6 6.9 10.7 2.9 22.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.1 6.1 16.1 24.3 18.2 3.1 69.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.2 1.9 0.3 8.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.3 9.2 18.2 26.2 25.1 13.8 2.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9
18-2 77.2% 10.7    5.7 5.0
17-3 27.4% 6.9    1.9 4.9 0.1
16-4 6.0% 1.6    0.3 1.1 0.2
15-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.2% 22.2 10.8 11.0 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.9% 100.0% 41.4% 58.6% 2.9 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 100.0%
18-2 13.8% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 4.1 0.3 0.8 3.1 4.8 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 25.1% 100.0% 31.0% 68.9% 5.2 0.1 0.3 1.9 5.3 7.4 6.6 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 26.2% 99.7% 24.7% 74.9% 6.1 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.4 7.9 6.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 0.1 99.5%
15-5 18.2% 99.0% 20.6% 78.4% 7.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.0 5.7 4.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 98.8%
14-6 9.2% 96.5% 17.8% 78.6% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.3 95.7%
13-7 3.3% 93.3% 18.0% 75.3% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.2 91.8%
12-8 1.1% 90.0% 18.0% 72.0% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 87.9%
11-9 0.2% 62.8% 23.3% 39.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 51.5%
10-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.0% 26.6% 72.4% 5.9 1.0 98.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 2.0 30.7 47.3 15.4 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 100.0% 3.4 4.3 15.5 28.9 41.2 10.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 3.3 2.2 21.1 26.7 40.0 10.0