St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +16.2 #21
Expected Predictive Rating +11.9 #48
Pace 73.4 #71
Improvement -3.8 #348

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #26 C A+ B A+ A
Defense #19 A+ C A+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #17 1.11 #231 +3.7 #67
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #322 0.67 #280 -3.4 #330
Three Pointers 40% #195 1.04 #150 +0.2 #172
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #165 +0.5 #164
Freethrows 22.3 #11 76% #65 17.0 #8
Second Chance 36.6% #37 1.25 #15 0.46 #16
Turnovers 14.6% #62
Total Offense +8.2 #26

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #94 0.97 #15 +2.1 #106
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #69 0.69 #97 -0.7 #235
Three Pointers 34% #345 0.85 #26 +6.5 #8
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #13 +7.9 #13
Freethrows 15.7 #103 74% #262 11.7 #238
Second Chance 32.8% #260 1.00 #130 0.33 #195
Turnovers 21.5% #12
Total Defense +8.0 #19

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.2% #22 -0.5% #122
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.0% #209 -15.1% #8
Possession Length 14.7 #13 19.2 #361
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #14 0.14 #73
Improvement -3.4 #348 -0.4 #219

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 2.1% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 12.5% 18.8% 6.2%
Top 6 Seed 39.2% 51.2% 27.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.7% 95.3% 86.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.6% 94.0% 83.5%
Average Seed 6.9 6.3 7.5
.500 or above 99.4% 99.8% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 99.4% 96.5%
Conference Champion 12.3% 18.2% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.8% 2.1% 5.4%
First Round89.2% 94.4% 84.0%
Second Round62.0% 68.9% 55.1%
Sweet Sixteen24.9% 29.9% 20.0%
Elite Eight10.0% 12.0% 8.0%
Final Four3.8% 4.7% 2.9%
Championship Game1.3% 1.7% 0.9%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Creighton (Away) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 8
Quad 27 - 213 - 10
Quad 36 - 119 - 11
Quad 43 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 158 Quinnipiac W 108 - 74 95%  +21  1 - 0 +31 +18 A+ A+ C +8 B A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 13 Alabama L 96 - 103 53%  -5  1 - 1 +8 +10 A- B- B- -1 A C F
 Sat, Nov 15 127 William & Mary W 93 - 60 94%  +13  2 - 1 +32 +9 C+ B- A+ +19 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 314 Bucknell W 97 - 49 99%  +21  3 - 1 +36 +13 C+ D D+ +19 A+ B- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 3 Iowa St. L 82 - 83 25%  -4  3 - 2 +22 +24 C A+ A+ -1 A+ F B
 Tue, Nov 25 32 Baylor W 96 - 81 59%  +12  4 - 2 +29 +26 A+ A+ B +3 A+ B+ A
 Wed, Nov 26 33 Auburn L 74 - 85 59%  -2  4 - 3 +3 +8 F A+ D+ -6 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 71 Mississippi W 63 - 58 85%  +5  5 - 3 +10 -9 F A+ F +19 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 214 Iona W 91 - 64 97%  +8  6 - 3 +21 +9 A+ B+ F +10 A+ C C
 Tue, Dec 16 102 DePaul W 79 - 66 90%  +4  7 - 3 1 - 0 +15 +10 B- D+ A+ +5 A+ D- C
 Sat, Dec 20 27 Kentucky L 66 - 78 55%  -3  7 - 4 +3 +2 F A+ C- +1 A F A+
 Tue, Dec 23 196 Harvard W 85 - 59 97%  +9  8 - 4 +21 +13 C+ A+ C- +9 B A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 103 @Georgetown W 95 - 83 79%  +6  9 - 4 2 - 0 +20 +26 A A+ B -6 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 66 Providence L 71 - 77 84%  +4  9 - 5 2 - 1 -0 -7 F A+ C- +7 A+ F B-
 Tue, Jan 6 57 @Butler W 84 - 70 65%  -1  10 - 5 3 - 1 +26 +15 B- C+ A+ +11 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 37 @Creighton L 76 - 77 50% 
 Tue, Jan 13 110 Marquette W 85 - 70 92% 
 Sat, Jan 17 31 @Villanova L 71 - 72 46% 
 Tue, Jan 20 53 Seton Hall W 74 - 65 80% 
 Sat, Jan 24 97 @Xavier W 82 - 74 77% 
 Wed, Jan 28 57 Butler W 85 - 75 82% 
 Tue, Feb 3 102 @DePaul W 77 - 69 78% 
 Fri, Feb 6 5 Connecticut L 72 - 74 41% 
 Mon, Feb 9 97 Xavier W 85 - 71 90% 
 Sat, Feb 14 66 @Providence W 86 - 82 66% 
 Wed, Feb 18 110 @Marquette W 82 - 73 79% 
 Sat, Feb 21 37 Creighton W 79 - 73 70% 
 Wed, Feb 25 5 @Connecticut L 69 - 77 22% 
 Sat, Feb 28 31 Villanova W 74 - 69 68% 
 Tue, Mar 3 103 Georgetown W 84 - 70 91% 
 Fri, Mar 6 53 @Seton Hall W 71 - 68 61% 
Totals 21 - 10 14 - 6 +16 +8 C A+ B +8 A+ C A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 4.4 2.5 0.4 12.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.9 9.7 13.4 9.2 2.8 0.2 38.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.4 8.4 7.8 2.8 0.2 23.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.8 4.6 1.3 0.1 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.3 7.2 11.5 16.3 18.9 17.4 13.0 7.2 2.7 0.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 91.9% 2.5    1.8 0.7
17-3 61.1% 4.4    2.6 1.8 0.0
16-4 27.9% 3.6    1.3 2.0 0.4
15-5 6.8% 1.2    0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 6.3 5.1 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 2.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.7% 100.0% 38.3% 61.7% 3.2 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.2% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 4.3 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.6 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.0% 100.0% 28.0% 71.9% 5.2 0.1 0.9 2.7 4.2 3.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 17.4% 99.4% 21.5% 77.9% 6.2 0.3 1.2 3.5 5.3 4.8 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
14-6 18.9% 97.9% 17.2% 80.7% 7.2 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 5.6 4.5 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.4 97.4%
13-7 16.3% 94.2% 14.0% 80.2% 8.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.1 4.7 3.7 1.9 0.3 1.0 93.2%
12-8 11.5% 84.4% 11.2% 73.2% 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.9 2.6 0.8 1.8 82.4%
11-9 7.2% 66.3% 9.2% 57.1% 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.6 1.4 0.0 2.4 62.9%
10-10 3.3% 45.1% 6.1% 39.0% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.0 1.8 41.5%
9-11 1.4% 15.9% 4.1% 11.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.1 12.3%
8-12 0.5% 2.9% 2.9% 11.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 90.7% 18.6% 72.1% 6.9 9.3 88.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.8 30.6 58.3 11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.5 16.7 37.5 25.0 16.7 4.2