St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.7#14
Expected Predictive Rating+13.8#37
Pace72.4#91
Improvement-0.4#208

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#22
First Shot+2.7#99
After Offensive Rebound+5.2#5
Layup/Dunks+1.9#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#292
Freethrows-0.2#189
Improvement-1.0#251

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#14
First Shot+8.7#9
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#258
Layups/Dunks+2.9#72
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#29
Freethrows+1.0#111
Improvement+0.5#144
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.7% 3.7% 1.4%
Top 2 Seed 10.5% 10.6% 4.5%
Top 4 Seed 30.7% 31.0% 16.4%
Top 6 Seed 52.6% 53.0% 32.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.1% 91.4% 80.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.3% 88.6% 77.0%
Average Seed 5.9 5.9 7.0
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 97.1% 97.2% 94.3%
Conference Champion 33.2% 33.4% 24.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four3.3% 3.3% 5.5%
First Round89.7% 90.0% 78.5%
Second Round66.5% 66.9% 51.9%
Sweet Sixteen34.1% 34.4% 22.1%
Elite Eight16.3% 16.4% 11.2%
Final Four7.3% 7.4% 3.9%
Championship Game3.1% 3.2% 1.0%
National Champion1.2% 1.3% 0.3%

Next Game: Delaware (Home) - 97.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 6
Quad 28 - 213 - 8
Quad 36 - 019 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 178   Fordham W 92-60 95%     1 - 0 +28.1 +12.8 +13.4
  Nov 09, 2024 249   Quinnipiac W 96-73 98%     2 - 0 +15.2 +9.0 +3.5
  Nov 13, 2024 307   Wagner W 66-45 98%     3 - 0 +9.9 -1.5 +13.3
  Nov 17, 2024 65   New Mexico W 85-71 83%     4 - 0 +19.3 +14.7 +4.7
  Nov 21, 2024 12   Baylor L 98-99 2OT 49%     4 - 1 +15.0 +8.4 +6.9
  Nov 22, 2024 92   Virginia W 80-55 83%     5 - 1 +30.6 +23.0 +10.5
  Nov 24, 2024 36   Georgia L 63-66 64%     5 - 2 +9.1 -1.0 +10.0
  Nov 30, 2024 243   Harvard W 77-64 97%     6 - 2 +5.4 +2.6 +2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 85   Kansas St. W 88-71 86%     7 - 2 +20.8 +10.0 +9.4
  Dec 11, 2024 185   Bryant W 99-77 96%     8 - 2 +17.8 +13.5 +2.0
  Dec 17, 2024 104   DePaul W 89-61 90%     9 - 2 1 - 0 +29.6 +17.0 +12.8
  Dec 20, 2024 76   @ Providence W 72-70 69%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +12.5 +4.2 +8.3
  Dec 28, 2024 215   Delaware W 89-68 98%    
  Dec 31, 2024 45   @ Creighton W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 04, 2025 69   Butler W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 07, 2025 49   @ Xavier W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 52   Villanova W 78-70 78%    
  Jan 14, 2025 68   Georgetown W 79-68 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 118   @ Seton Hall W 70-60 82%    
  Jan 22, 2025 49   Xavier W 80-72 77%    
  Jan 28, 2025 68   @ Georgetown W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 76   Providence W 75-64 85%    
  Feb 04, 2025 17   Marquette W 78-75 62%    
  Feb 07, 2025 10   @ Connecticut L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 12, 2025 52   @ Villanova W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 16, 2025 45   Creighton W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 19, 2025 104   @ DePaul W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 23, 2025 10   Connecticut W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 26, 2025 69   @ Butler W 78-73 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 118   Seton Hall W 73-57 92%    
  Mar 08, 2025 17   @ Marquette L 75-78 41%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.1 8.5 9.1 5.9 2.3 0.5 33.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 7.6 8.9 5.4 1.7 0.2 27.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.5 7.0 5.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 19.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.1 2.2 0.5 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.5 6.1 9.4 12.7 15.3 16.2 14.3 10.7 6.1 2.3 0.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.0
18-2 97.2% 5.9    5.4 0.6 0.0
17-3 84.5% 9.1    6.9 2.0 0.1
16-4 59.7% 8.5    5.0 3.2 0.4 0.0
15-5 31.3% 5.1    1.9 2.4 0.7 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.2% 1.6    0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.2% 33.2 22.4 8.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 51.5% 48.5% 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.3% 100.0% 47.9% 52.1% 1.7 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.1% 100.0% 41.4% 58.6% 2.3 1.4 2.3 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.7% 100.0% 35.9% 64.1% 3.3 0.7 2.2 3.2 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 14.3% 99.9% 30.7% 69.2% 4.4 0.2 1.0 2.7 4.0 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 16.2% 99.4% 25.7% 73.7% 5.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.7 4.1 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 99.3%
14-6 15.3% 97.6% 21.4% 76.3% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.1 3.8 3.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 97.0%
13-7 12.7% 93.4% 17.4% 76.0% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.1 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.8 92.0%
12-8 9.4% 83.5% 13.9% 69.6% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.0 0.8 0.0 1.5 80.9%
11-9 6.1% 69.0% 10.5% 58.5% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.0 1.9 65.4%
10-10 3.5% 50.5% 8.1% 42.5% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.7 46.2%
9-11 1.7% 23.5% 4.8% 18.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.3 19.7%
8-12 0.8% 5.8% 1.9% 3.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.0%
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.1% 4.1% 4.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 91.1% 24.1% 67.0% 5.9 3.7 6.8 9.1 11.1 10.7 11.2 11.0 9.8 8.2 6.3 3.1 0.1 8.9 88.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 71.4 28.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 64.6 33.3 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.8 40.0 42.5 17.5