St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.1#14
Expected Predictive Rating+17.5#14
Pace73.1#60
Improvement+0.2#174

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#67
First Shot+0.6#158
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#14
Layup/Dunks+1.3#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#309
Freethrows-1.0#249
Improvement-4.9#354

Defense
Total Defense+12.5#2
First Shot+12.7#1
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#211
Layups/Dunks+4.1#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#64
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#23
Freethrows+2.9#25
Improvement+5.0#5
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.3% 6.1% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 15.3% 20.1% 6.2%
Top 4 Seed 48.4% 57.6% 31.0%
Top 6 Seed 74.8% 82.8% 59.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.8% 99.4% 97.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.2% 99.1% 96.5%
Average Seed 4.8 4.3 5.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 63.7% 76.0% 40.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.1% 1.1%
First Round98.6% 99.4% 97.0%
Second Round81.0% 84.7% 74.1%
Sweet Sixteen43.9% 48.2% 35.8%
Elite Eight20.6% 22.9% 16.3%
Final Four9.4% 10.3% 7.5%
Championship Game4.0% 4.5% 3.0%
National Champion1.7% 2.0% 1.2%

Next Game: Marquette (Home) - 65.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 35 - 6
Quad 29 - 114 - 7
Quad 37 - 021 - 7
Quad 46 - 027 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 191   Fordham W 92-60 96%     1 - 0 +28.1 +11.9 +14.3
  Nov 09, 2024 187   Quinnipiac W 96-73 96%     2 - 0 +19.2 +12.6 +3.9
  Nov 13, 2024 335   Wagner W 66-45 99%     3 - 0 +7.2 -5.7 +14.8
  Nov 17, 2024 40   New Mexico W 85-71 77%     4 - 0 +23.4 +19.1 +4.4
  Nov 21, 2024 20   Baylor L 98-99 2OT 55%     4 - 1 +14.8 +8.9 +6.1
  Nov 22, 2024 97   Virginia W 80-55 87%     5 - 1 +29.9 +19.6 +13.2
  Nov 24, 2024 37   Georgia L 63-66 69%     5 - 2 +9.0 +0.3 +8.6
  Nov 30, 2024 241   Harvard W 77-64 98%     6 - 2 +5.9 +2.7 +3.3
  Dec 07, 2024 55   Kansas St. W 88-71 82%     7 - 2 +24.4 +11.9 +11.2
  Dec 11, 2024 144   Bryant W 99-77 95%     8 - 2 +20.7 +14.5 +3.9
  Dec 17, 2024 112   DePaul W 89-61 93%     9 - 2 1 - 0 +28.7 +16.3 +12.7
  Dec 20, 2024 66   @ Providence W 72-70 74%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +12.6 +2.2 +10.3
  Dec 28, 2024 232   Delaware W 97-76 98%     11 - 2 +14.4 +12.3 +1.0
  Dec 31, 2024 28   @ Creighton L 56-57 51%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +15.8 -3.6 +19.4
  Jan 04, 2025 75   Butler W 70-62 87%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +13.0 -10.0 +22.1
  Jan 07, 2025 44   @ Xavier W 82-72 62%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +24.1 +9.9 +13.4
  Jan 11, 2025 46   Villanova W 80-68 79%     14 - 3 5 - 1 +20.4 +14.1 +7.2
  Jan 14, 2025 85   Georgetown W 63-58 88%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +9.6 -3.2 +12.9
  Jan 18, 2025 147   @ Seton Hall W 79-51 89%     16 - 3 7 - 1 +31.5 +9.3 +21.9
  Jan 22, 2025 44   Xavier W 79-71 OT 78%     17 - 3 8 - 1 +17.1 +6.0 +10.6
  Jan 28, 2025 85   @ Georgetown W 66-41 77%     18 - 3 9 - 1 +34.5 +1.6 +33.3
  Feb 01, 2025 66   Providence W 68-66 86%     19 - 3 10 - 1 +7.6 -4.4 +12.0
  Feb 04, 2025 21   Marquette W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 07, 2025 24   @ Connecticut L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 12, 2025 46   @ Villanova W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 16, 2025 28   Creighton W 73-68 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 112   @ DePaul W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 23, 2025 24   Connecticut W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 26, 2025 75   @ Butler W 76-69 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 147   Seton Hall W 75-56 96%    
  Mar 08, 2025 21   @ Marquette L 72-73 43%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.4 19.5 22.7 13.2 3.8 63.7 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 11.4 6.7 0.5 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 5.5 3.9 0.1 10.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 2.3 1.8 0.1 4.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.4 9.4 19.9 26.3 23.2 13.2 3.8 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 3.8    3.8
18-2 100.0% 13.2    13.1 0.1
17-3 97.9% 22.7    19.1 3.5 0.0
16-4 74.2% 19.5    8.8 8.9 1.8 0.0
15-5 22.3% 4.4    0.4 1.7 1.9 0.4
14-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 63.7% 63.7 45.2 14.2 3.8 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 3.8% 100.0% 42.0% 58.0% 1.9 1.2 1.8 0.5 0.2 100.0%
18-2 13.2% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 2.6 2.0 4.5 4.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-3 23.2% 100.0% 35.1% 64.9% 3.6 1.0 3.7 6.6 6.5 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 26.3% 99.8% 31.5% 68.3% 4.9 0.1 0.9 3.6 6.5 6.2 4.8 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 99.8%
15-5 19.9% 98.8% 27.4% 71.5% 6.2 0.0 0.7 2.1 3.7 4.2 4.7 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.2 98.4%
14-6 9.4% 96.1% 20.5% 75.6% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 2.4 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 95.1%
13-7 3.4% 88.4% 16.7% 71.7% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 86.1%
12-8 0.8% 78.8% 10.0% 68.8% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 76.4%
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.8% 31.5% 67.3% 4.8 4.3 11.0 15.6 17.5 14.5 11.9 11.0 6.7 4.0 1.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 98.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 1.5 53.2 43.7 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 1.8 29.3 59.8 11.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 100.0% 2.3 11.6 53.5 25.6 9.3