Stonehill
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.6 #340
Expected Predictive Rating -15.9 #350
Pace 66.0 #267
Improvement -1.1 #247

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #358 D- F F F C
Defense #252 C- C+ F C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #206 0.97 #344 -4.3 #314
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #182 0.70 #247 -0.7 #208
Three Pointers 43% #154 0.96 #249 -0.4 #198
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #322 -5.3 #324
Freethrows 12.6 #346 72% #196 9.1 #353
Second Chance 26.2% #302 0.87 #344 0.23 #343
Turnovers 20.7% #355
Total Offense -9.1 #358

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #29 1.14 #156 -3.5 #294
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #233 0.68 #85 +1.4 #91
Three Pointers 37% #295 1.09 #289 +0.8 #153
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #221 -1.3 #224
Freethrows 17.2 #179 69% #49 11.8 #222
Second Chance 26.7% #58 1.11 #262 0.30 #124
Turnovers 11.3% #365
Total Defense -2.4 #252

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #199 1.5% #301
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.3% #331 0.9% #197
Possession Length 18.9 #331 16.1 #28
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #262 0.19 #243
Improvement -0.1 #191 -1.0 #249

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 5.5% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.2% 1.7% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 53.4% 62.7% 34.9%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.5% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 13.4% 7.4% 25.2%
First Four4.8% 5.5% 3.5%
First Round2.1% 2.4% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 66.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 49 - 159 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 102 @DePaul L 64 - 72 5%  -8  0 - 1 -0 -7 C- C- D- +7 A+ B+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 141 @Rhode Island L 57 - 80 8%  -12  0 - 2 -19 -13 F D F -6 C- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 282 @Fairfield L 71 - 73 OT 23%  -2  0 - 3 -6 -12 F F C +7 A+ A- F
 Sat, Nov 15 336 Loyola Maryland L 63 - 74 48%  -3  0 - 4 -22 -14 D- F F -9 F C F
 Mon, Nov 17 3 @Iowa St. L 57 - 96 0%  -18  0 - 5 -13 -2 A F F -10 D A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 318 Lafayette W 74 - 70 54%  +4  1 - 5 -8 -6 B F F -2 B- B C
 Wed, Nov 26 286 Umass Lowell L 64 - 75 44%  -5  1 - 6 -21 -14 F F C+ -8 B- C F
 Sun, Nov 30 158 @Quinnipiac L 62 - 76 10%  -8  1 - 7 -11 -7 F A F -4 F A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 2 317 @Bryant L 65 - 77 31%  -4  1 - 8 -18 +0 C F D+ -20 F F F
 Wed, Dec 17 344 @New Hampshire L 58 - 59 39%  -1  1 - 9 -10 -15 F F F +6 A B+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 69 @Syracuse L 48 - 77 3%  -12  1 - 10 -18 -12 F B- F -10 D- B- F
 Fri, Jan 2 338 New Haven L 55 - 70 61%  -5  1 - 11 0 - 1 -30 -19 F D+ D+ -12 F C F
 Sun, Jan 4 316 @Wagner W 69 - 60 30%  +2  2 - 11 1 - 1 +3 +3 C F C +1 B C+ D
 Thu, Jan 8 269 @Central Connecticut St. L 69 - 76 22%  -6  2 - 12 1 - 2 -10 -3 C F F -8 D F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 353 Chicago St. W 71 - 67 66% 
 Sat, Jan 17 307 @Mercyhurst L 61 - 67 29% 
 Mon, Jan 19 361 @St. Francis (PA) W 70 - 69 54% 
 Fri, Jan 23 209 LIU Brooklyn L 67 - 73 28% 
 Sun, Jan 25 269 Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 69 42% 
 Thu, Jan 29 349 Fairleigh Dickinson W 72 - 68 65% 
 Sat, Jan 31 291 @Le Moyne L 68 - 75 25% 
 Thu, Feb 5 349 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 69 - 71 43% 
 Sat, Feb 7 209 @LIU Brooklyn L 64 - 76 13% 
 Thu, Feb 12 353 @Chicago St. L 68 - 70 45% 
 Sat, Feb 14 316 Wagner W 68 - 67 53% 
 Thu, Feb 19 338 @New Haven L 61 - 64 39% 
 Sat, Feb 21 291 Le Moyne L 71 - 72 45% 
 Thu, Feb 26 361 St. Francis (PA) W 73 - 66 74% 
 Sat, Feb 28 307 Mercyhurst W 64 - 63 51% 
Totals 9 - 20 8 - 10 -12 -9 D- F F -2 C- C+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.6 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.4 4.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.8 5.7 6.3 1.5 0.1 14.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 4.9 7.5 1.9 0.1 14.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.5 7.3 2.5 0.1 13.6 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 6.4 3.1 0.2 12.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.6 2.8 0.3 10.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.0 1.9 0.2 7.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.2 9.1 13.4 16.4 16.9 14.5 10.5 6.6 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-1 93.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-2 61.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-3 31.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.0
12-4 10.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-5 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.3% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
13-3 1.2% 16.3% 16.3% 16.0 0.2 1.0
12-4 3.3% 15.0% 15.0% 16.0 0.5 2.8
11-5 6.6% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 0.7 5.9
10-6 10.5% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.8 9.7
9-7 14.5% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.8 13.7
8-8 16.9% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.7 16.2
7-9 16.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.5 15.9
6-10 13.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 13.1
5-11 9.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.2 8.8
4-12 5.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.1
3-13 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-14 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 16.0 95.2 0.0%