Stonehill
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#313
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#268
Pace64.7#280
Improvement-0.9#221

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#296
First Shot-1.6#221
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#325
Layup/Dunks-4.4#326
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#51
Freethrows-1.0#248
Improvement+0.8#126

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#308
First Shot-4.0#302
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#221
Layups/Dunks-1.9#256
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#177
Freethrows-2.1#318
Improvement-1.8#277
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 15.5% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 61.0% 75.1% 47.3%
.500 or above in Conference 74.3% 86.3% 62.7%
Conference Champion 11.2% 16.7% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 0.8% 4.3%
First Four11.5% 13.1% 10.0%
First Round6.3% 7.6% 5.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Le Moyne (Away) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 31 - 6
Quad 415 - 916 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 70   @ Notre Dame L 60-89 5%     0 - 1 -18.5 -8.4 -11.0
  Nov 09, 2024 71   @ Providence L 49-76 5%     0 - 2 -16.6 -20.8 +5.1
  Nov 14, 2024 245   @ Robert Morris L 51-63 24%     0 - 3 -13.5 -19.6 +5.8
  Nov 15, 2024 355   New Orleans W 80-54 68%     1 - 3 +12.4 -1.5 +13.5
  Nov 17, 2024 335   Lindenwood L 74-75 58%     1 - 4 -11.9 +1.5 -13.4
  Nov 21, 2024 184   Bryant W 67-66 32%     2 - 4 -3.0 -6.0 +2.9
  Nov 25, 2024 353   Texas A&M - Commerce W 67-65 77%     3 - 4 -14.4 -3.4 -10.7
  Nov 27, 2024 16   @ Marquette L 59-94 1%     3 - 5 -15.4 -2.7 -13.6
  Dec 01, 2024 212   Quinnipiac W 88-74 39%     4 - 5 +8.2 +20.2 -11.2
  Dec 15, 2024 185   @ Boston College L 69-73 16%     4 - 6 -2.1 +6.0 -8.6
  Dec 18, 2024 172   @ Umass Lowell L 67-78 14%     4 - 7 -8.4 -4.1 -4.8
  Dec 22, 2024 354   New Hampshire W 90-83 77%     5 - 7 -9.4 +13.5 -22.7
  Dec 29, 2024 251   @ Lafayette W 70-65 26%     6 - 7 +2.8 +0.0 +2.9
  Jan 03, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst L 69-76 63%     6 - 8 0 - 1 -19.1 -8.2 -11.0
  Jan 05, 2025 341   @ St. Francis (PA) W 64-60 48%     7 - 8 1 - 1 -4.3 -5.6 +1.8
  Jan 10, 2025 312   LIU Brooklyn L 60-70 61%     7 - 9 1 - 2 -21.7 -8.8 -14.0
  Jan 12, 2025 358   @ Chicago St. W 68-52 62%     8 - 9 2 - 2 +4.0 +1.1 +4.7
  Jan 20, 2025 345   @ Le Moyne L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 24, 2025 358   Chicago St. W 72-63 80%    
  Jan 26, 2025 322   Fairleigh Dickinson W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 30, 2025 328   Wagner W 62-57 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 240   Central Connecticut St. L 64-66 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 312   @ LIU Brooklyn L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 13, 2025 341   St. Francis (PA) W 73-68 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 70-61 81%    
  Feb 20, 2025 328   @ Wagner L 59-60 46%    
  Feb 22, 2025 240   @ Central Connecticut St. L 61-69 24%    
  Feb 27, 2025 322   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 74-76 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 345   Le Moyne W 74-68 70%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 4.2 4.0 1.6 0.2 11.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 7.3 5.7 1.4 0.1 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 8.9 7.2 1.4 0.0 19.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 7.8 7.7 1.2 0.0 17.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 5.6 7.8 1.3 0.0 15.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.2 1.4 0.1 10.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.2 1.3 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.6 0.9 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 7.0 14.2 18.8 20.0 17.0 11.2 5.4 1.6 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
13-3 95.1% 1.6    1.3 0.3 0.0
12-4 73.2% 4.0    2.4 1.4 0.2
11-5 36.9% 4.2    1.3 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
10-6 7.8% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 11.2% 11.2 5.3 4.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.2% 13.7% 13.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-3 1.6% 29.9% 29.9% 15.7 0.1 0.3 1.1
12-4 5.4% 28.0% 28.0% 15.9 0.1 1.4 3.9
11-5 11.2% 19.4% 19.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2 9.1
10-6 17.0% 16.3% 16.3% 16.0 0.0 2.8 14.3
9-7 20.0% 12.2% 12.2% 16.0 2.4 17.5
8-8 18.8% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.0 2.0 16.8
7-9 14.2% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 1.2 13.0
6-10 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.4 6.6
5-11 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.1 3.1
4-12 1.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 12.8 86.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%