Stonehill
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.4 #328
Expected Predictive Rating -11.0 #331
Pace 65.5 #264
Improvement +3.1 #56

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #363 D- D F F C+
Defense #143 C C+ F B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #151 1.00 #340 -2.5 #270
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #212 0.74 #198 -0.9 #232
Three Pointers 42% #167 0.87 #341 -2.7 #277
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #340 -6.2 #340
Freethrows 0.22 #358 69% #295 0.15 #361
Second Chance 28.0% #257 0.85 #354 0.24 #334
Turnovers 21.0% #359
Total Offense -11.0 #363

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #41 1.09 #95 -1.9 #244
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #161 0.68 #64 +0.6 #146
Three Pointers 35% #337 1.07 #260 +2.2 #99
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #147 +0.9 #147
Freethrows 0.29 #145 69% #29 0.20 #98
Second Chance 25.7% #31 1.11 #294 0.28 #105
Turnovers 11.6% #365
Total Defense +0.6 #143

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #147 0.7% #230
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.7% #349 -2.5% #134
Possession Length 18.5 #304 16.6 #72
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #306 0.17 #192
Improvement -1.1 #243 +4.1 #16

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 9.4% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.7% 5.4% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 99.5% 92.3%
Conference Champion 2.6% 4.7% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four7.7% 8.9% 6.9%
First Round3.6% 4.2% 3.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Away) - 42.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 412 - 1312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 94 @DePaul L 64 - 72 5% -8  0 - 1 +1 -7 D C+ D +9 A+ A- F
 Tue, Nov 11 119 @Rhode Island L 57 - 80 7% -12  0 - 2 -17 -12 F C- F -4 C B- F
 Fri, Nov 14 272 @Fairfield L 71 - 73 OT 25% -2  0 - 3 -5 -11 F+ F B +6 A- A F
 Sat, Nov 15 318 Loyola Maryland L 63 - 74 47% -3  0 - 4 -21 -12 D+ F F -10 F C F
 Mon, Nov 17 4 @Iowa St. L 57 - 96 0% -18  0 - 5 -14 -3 B+ F F -10 D A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 310 Lafayette W 74 - 70 56% +4  1 - 5 -8 -6 B- F F -2 B- B- C+
 Wed, Nov 26 314 Umass Lowell L 64 - 75 57% -5  1 - 6 -23 -13 F D C -10 C C F
 Sun, Nov 30 186 @Quinnipiac L 62 - 76 14% -8  1 - 7 -13 -8 F A F -5 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 2 347 @Bryant L 65 - 77 44% -4  1 - 8 -21 -2 C- F+ D+ -20 F F F+
 Wed, Dec 17 320 @New Hampshire L 58 - 59 37% -1  1 - 9 -8 -15 F+ F F +7 A B F
 Mon, Dec 22 68 @Syracuse L 48 - 77 3% -12  1 - 10 -18 -13 F B- F -8 C C+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 334 New Haven L 55 - 70 64% -5  1 - 11 0 - 1 -29 -19 F C- D -11 F+ C- F
 Sun, Jan 4 330 @Wagner W 69 - 60 39% +2  2 - 11 1 - 1 +1 +2 C- D C+ +1 B- C D
 Thu, Jan 8 300 @Central Connecticut St. L 69 - 76 30% -6  2 - 12 1 - 2 -12 -3 C+ F F -9 D- F B
 Sat, Jan 10 355 Chicago St. W 85 - 82 OT 75% +3  3 - 12 2 - 2 -14 -0 C+ C+ F+ -14 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 304 @Mercyhurst W 62 - 57 OT 31% -2  4 - 12 3 - 2 -0 -11 D- D D- +11 B A+ D-
 Mon, Jan 19 357 @St. Francis (PA) L 61 - 63 54% +3  4 - 13 3 - 3 -13 -15 F F+ F +2 A C- F
 Fri, Jan 23 195 LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 66 31% +3  4 - 14 3 - 4 -8 -7 C- C F -2 B+ A+ F
 Mon, Jan 26 300 Central Connecticut St. W 61 - 59 53% -3  5 - 14 4 - 4 -9 -14 D- F F +5 D+ B+ B
 Thu, Jan 29 343 Fairleigh Dickinson W 58 - 57 66% +1  6 - 14 5 - 4 -14 -13 F C+ D+ -1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 31 296 @Le Moyne W 65 - 54 29% +5  7 - 14 6 - 4 +6 -11 F+ F B+ +17 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Feb 5 343 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 64 - 66 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 195 @LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 72 15%
 Thu, Feb 12 355 @Chicago St. W 67 - 66 55%
 Sat, Feb 14 330 Wagner W 66 - 63 62%
 Thu, Feb 19 334 @New Haven L 60 - 62 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 296 Le Moyne W 68 - 67 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 357 St. Francis (PA) W 71 - 64 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 304 Mercyhurst W 62 - 61 54%
Totals 11 - 18 10 - 8 -10 -11 D- D F +1 C C+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.4 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 2.5 10.3 8.5 2.0 0.1 23.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 11.6 9.2 1.2 0.0 23.7 3rd
4th 0.6 8.6 10.2 1.2 0.0 20.5 4th
5th 0.1 3.8 9.7 1.8 0.0 15.3 5th
6th 1.1 5.7 2.4 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 1.6 0.1 3.7 7th
8th 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.8 3.9 11.7 22.4 26.1 20.9 10.7 3.2 0.4 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 86.7% 0.4    0.2 0.1
13-3 36.5% 1.2    0.4 0.7 0.1
12-4 8.4% 0.9    0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.4% 20.5% 20.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3
13-3 3.2% 19.3% 19.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 2.6
12-4 10.7% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 1.4 9.2
11-5 20.9% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 1.9 19.0
10-6 26.1% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 2.2 23.9
9-7 22.4% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 1.2 21.2
8-8 11.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.4 11.3
7-9 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 3.7
6-10 0.8% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 16.0 92.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.5%