Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -9.2 #315
Expected Predictive Rating -10.2 #319
Pace 73.1 #74
Improvement -0.4 #202

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #341 F D- C- D C
Defense #233 C+ D- D+ C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #259 0.93 #359 -5.9 #342
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #200 0.65 #304 -1.4 #245
Three Pointers 45% #108 0.83 #344 -2.1 #264
1st FG Attempt 0.83 #362 -9.3 #362
Freethrows 15.8 #267 72% #197 11.4 #278
Second Chance 27.5% #270 0.87 #339 0.24 #326
Turnovers 17.4% #236
Total Offense -7.3 #341

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #168 1.12 #135 +0.3 #169
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #340 0.69 #96 +2.7 #18
Three Pointers 46% #49 0.96 #117 -1.4 #236
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #125 +1.7 #126
Freethrows 16.4 #143 70% #85 11.5 #249
Second Chance 36.5% #342 1.07 #216 0.39 #320
Turnovers 15.5% #250
Total Defense -1.9 #233

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #206 1.7% #313
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -18.2% #363 -4.8% #95
Possession Length 16.3 #92 17.0 #146
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #145 0.23 #327
Improvement -1.1 #257 +0.7 #139

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 1.2% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 68.5% 53.5% 75.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Home) - 31.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 32 - 92 - 17
Quad 43 - 75 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 275 SIU Edwardsville L 60 - 77 51%  -3  0 - 1 -27 -17 F F A+ -9 C- F B
 Wed, Nov 12 268 @Texas St. L 69 - 80 28%  -10  0 - 2 -14 -5 F C- A- -9 A F F
 Sat, Nov 15 264 @Denver W 84 - 79 27%  +4  1 - 2 +2 +10 A+ F D -8 D A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 202 Abilene Christian L 50 - 61 26%  -7  1 - 3 -13 -16 F C- D +1 A+ F A
 Tue, Nov 25 213 Georgia Southern W 77 - 64 27%  -1  2 - 3 +10 -3 F D- A+ +12 A+ D B-
 Sun, Nov 30 200 South Alabama L 58 - 82 35%  -14  2 - 4 -29 -17 F F B+ -12 F F B-
 Sun, Dec 7 13 @Alabama L 55 - 97 1%  -27  2 - 5 -21 -17 F F F +0 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 77 @Colorado L 64 - 88 4%  -10  2 - 6 -13 -8 D- D+ F -4 F A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 46 @USC L 70 - 97 3%  -10  2 - 7 -13 -0 F A+ F -11 F F D-
 Mon, Dec 22 120 Seattle L 68 - 71 20%  -4  2 - 8 -3 -5 B+ F D+ +2 A+ C- C
 Wed, Dec 31 106 @Florida Atlantic L 70 - 110 7%  -27  2 - 9 0 - 1 -33 -8 F D D+ -20 F F C
 Sat, Jan 3 143 @Temple L 57 - 76 11%  -9  2 - 10 0 - 2 -15 -13 F C- F -3 A F B
 Wed, Jan 7 166 Charlotte L 58 - 74 30%  -9  2 - 11 0 - 3 -20 -14 F F B -7 B- D- C
 Sat, Jan 10 176 Tulane L 70 - 75 31% 
 Wed, Jan 14 245 Rice L 70 - 71 45% 
 Sun, Jan 18 78 @Memphis L 62 - 82 3% 
 Wed, Jan 21 133 @North Texas L 57 - 71 10% 
 Sat, Jan 24 143 Temple L 71 - 78 25% 
 Wed, Jan 28 113 UAB L 71 - 81 18% 
 Wed, Feb 4 89 @South Florida L 69 - 88 4% 
 Sat, Feb 7 133 North Texas L 60 - 68 24% 
 Wed, Feb 11 266 @East Carolina L 69 - 75 28% 
 Sun, Feb 15 166 @Charlotte L 65 - 77 14% 
 Wed, Feb 18 106 Florida Atlantic L 70 - 81 16% 
 Sun, Feb 22 81 @Tulsa L 67 - 86 4% 
 Wed, Feb 25 266 East Carolina L 71 - 72 49% 
 Sun, Mar 1 104 Wichita St. L 66 - 77 16% 
 Sun, Mar 8 245 @Rice L 67 - 74 25% 
Totals 5 - 23 3 - 15 -9 -7 F D- C- -2 C+ D- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 2.4 0.9 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.4 2.8 4.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.6 11th
12th 0.2 2.9 9.0 10.3 4.6 0.6 0.0 27.6 12th
13th 4.7 13.7 18.4 12.6 4.4 0.5 0.0 54.2 13th
Total 4.7 13.8 21.3 21.9 17.6 11.1 6.0 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9
7-11 2.4% 2.4
6-12 6.0% 6.0
5-13 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.1
4-14 17.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.5
3-15 21.9% 21.9
2-16 21.3% 21.3
1-17 13.8% 13.8
0-18 4.7% 4.7
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.4%