Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#226
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#188
Pace75.0#44
Improvement+2.5#51

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#176
First Shot+0.4#162
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#228
Layup/Dunks-5.9#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#28
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#126
Freethrows+1.4#96
Improvement+1.1#101

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#281
First Shot-1.0#207
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#333
Layups/Dunks-1.4#225
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#172
Freethrows-1.1#261
Improvement+1.4#79
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 12.4% 17.2% 5.9%
.500 or above in Conference 18.1% 21.2% 13.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 26.4% 22.7% 31.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Away) - 57.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 33 - 64 - 15
Quad 47 - 411 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 78   @ Bradley L 72-85 10%     0 - 1 -2.6 -2.5 +0.8
  Nov 16, 2024 244   Arkansas Little Rock L 64-81 65%     0 - 2 -24.6 -11.0 -13.1
  Nov 25, 2024 119   @ Troy L 72-86 19%     0 - 3 -8.2 +2.1 -10.1
  Nov 27, 2024 195   Merrimack W 76-74 43%     1 - 3 +0.3 -0.7 +0.8
  Nov 30, 2024 346   Houston Christian W 78-71 85%     2 - 3 -7.8 +2.1 -9.5
  Dec 03, 2024 53   @ St. Mary's L 74-82 OT 7%     2 - 4 +5.3 +3.2 +2.6
  Dec 07, 2024 31   @ Arkansas L 60-75 5%     2 - 5 +0.9 -2.2 +2.4
  Dec 13, 2024 275   North Dakota W 80-76 71%     3 - 5 -5.3 -3.6 -1.8
  Dec 15, 2024 275   @ North Dakota W 95-85 49%     4 - 5 +6.7 +11.7 -5.6
  Dec 29, 2024 312   @ Army W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 04, 2025 202   @ Tulane L 75-80 33%    
  Jan 07, 2025 239   Tulsa W 80-76 64%    
  Jan 11, 2025 101   Wichita St. L 77-82 32%    
  Jan 14, 2025 186   @ Rice L 71-76 31%    
  Jan 18, 2025 85   North Texas L 64-71 25%    
  Jan 21, 2025 127   @ UAB L 79-88 21%    
  Jan 25, 2025 124   Temple L 76-79 40%    
  Jan 29, 2025 88   @ Florida Atlantic L 78-91 12%    
  Feb 01, 2025 85   @ North Texas L 61-74 11%    
  Feb 05, 2025 202   Tulane W 78-77 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 182   East Carolina W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 101   @ Wichita St. L 74-85 16%    
  Feb 15, 2025 239   @ Tulsa L 77-79 42%    
  Feb 19, 2025 169   South Florida L 78-79 51%    
  Feb 23, 2025 182   @ East Carolina L 70-76 31%    
  Mar 02, 2025 186   Rice W 74-73 53%    
  Mar 04, 2025 44   Memphis L 76-88 14%    
  Mar 09, 2025 193   @ Charlotte L 73-78 32%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 3.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.0 3.7 0.5 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.3 3.1 5.3 1.4 0.0 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.4 2.7 0.2 0.0 11.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.0 4.4 0.5 0.0 13.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.1 4.9 1.0 0.0 15.0 12th
13th 0.4 1.7 4.3 5.6 3.8 0.9 0.0 16.8 13th
Total 0.4 1.7 4.7 8.4 12.4 14.5 15.4 13.6 10.8 7.9 5.2 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 61.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 36.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 5.1% 5.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.6% 5.5% 5.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 1.4% 3.5% 3.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
11-7 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
10-8 5.2% 1.3% 1.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1
9-9 7.9% 0.9% 0.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8
8-10 10.8% 0.4% 0.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8
7-11 13.6% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 13.5
6-12 15.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.4
5-13 14.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.4
4-14 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.4
3-15 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.4
2-16 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.7
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%