UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.0 #142
Expected Predictive Rating -1.7 #193
Pace 75.7 #42
Improvement -1.0 #243

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #166 C C- C B+ B
Defense #134 B D- B D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #30 1.14 #209 +3.6 #70
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #235 0.93 #19 +0.5 #155
Three Pointers 37% #269 0.97 #240 -3.0 #281
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #148 +1.1 #148
Freethrows 22.0 #15 68% #304 15.0 #55
Second Chance 33.0% #114 0.88 #335 0.29 #244
Turnovers 16.6% #179
Total Offense +0.1 #166

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #91 1.03 #45 +0.7 #155
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #189 0.83 #295 -0.6 #233
Three Pointers 38% #265 0.90 #51 +3.8 #57
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #68 +3.8 #68
Freethrows 20.4 #318 71% #110 14.4 #62
Second Chance 34.0% #293 1.16 #306 0.39 #327
Turnovers 18.7% #70
Total Defense +0.9 #134

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #73 0.7% #226
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.4% #170 -8.1% #55
Possession Length 15.7 #55 17.2 #179
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #122 0.13 #56
Improvement -4.5 #361 +3.5 #22

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.5 13.4
.500 or above 8.6% 16.5% 4.9%
.500 or above in Conference 19.3% 32.5% 13.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Home) - 32.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 74 - 12
Quad 33 - 57 - 16
Quad 45 - 312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 235 Tennessee Martin L 81 - 86 78%  +18  0 - 1 -12 -4 F A F -7 A+ F A-
 Sat, Nov 8 273 Chattanooga W 101 - 69 84%  +11  1 - 1 +23 +26 A+ A+ A+ -2 D- C B
 Tue, Nov 11 178 Montana L 93 - 102 70%  -6  1 - 2 -13 +5 A F B+ -17 F F D-
 Sun, Nov 16 78 @Memphis W 92 - 78 18%  +11  2 - 2 +25 +16 A+ F A- +7 A+ C+ A-
 Thu, Nov 20 185 Saint Joseph's W 99 - 85 71%  +4  3 - 2 +9 +13 C+ C+ C -6 D+ A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 107 Maryland L 67 - 74 37%  +0  3 - 3 -3 -5 D- F C+ +3 B+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 13 Alabama L 76 - 115 6%  -16  3 - 4 -21 -0 B- F A- -16 F F A-
 Thu, Nov 27 131 Rutgers L 65 - 80 47%  -3  3 - 5 -13 -6 D F A+ -7 B+ D+ D+
 Sun, Dec 7 79 @Stanford W 75 - 74 18%  -2  4 - 5 +12 +5 B D- C+ +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 219 Tennessee St. L 60 - 63 75%  +2  4 - 6 -9 -16 F F F +7 C+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 157 Fresno St. W 84 - 72 66%  +4  5 - 6 1 - 0 +9 +13 A+ A+ C+ -4 B F D
 Sat, Jan 3 334 Air Force W 67 - 39 91%  +15  6 - 6 2 - 0 +14 -5 F B+ C +21 A+ A- C
 Tue, Jan 6 95 @Wyoming L 66 - 98 23%  -20  6 - 7 2 - 1 -23 -5 C- D C+ -18 F F B
 Fri, Jan 9 94 @Colorado St. L 62 - 70 23%  -0  6 - 8 2 - 2 +1 -4 D- C F +4 A+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 63 Boise St. L 71 - 76 32% 
 Sat, Jan 17 221 @San Jose St. W 76 - 75 55% 
 Tue, Jan 20 35 @Utah St. L 71 - 87 7% 
 Sat, Jan 24 52 San Diego St. L 74 - 80 28% 
 Tue, Jan 27 56 New Mexico L 75 - 81 30% 
 Fri, Jan 30 90 @Nevada L 71 - 79 22% 
 Tue, Feb 3 157 @Fresno St. L 75 - 77 43% 
 Sat, Feb 7 83 Grand Canyon L 73 - 76 39% 
 Tue, Feb 10 221 San Jose St. W 79 - 72 74% 
 Fri, Feb 13 63 @Boise St. L 68 - 79 16% 
 Wed, Feb 18 94 Colorado St. L 73 - 75 43% 
 Sat, Feb 21 334 @Air Force W 74 - 65 79% 
 Wed, Feb 25 83 @Grand Canyon L 70 - 79 20% 
 Sat, Feb 28 90 Nevada L 74 - 76 41% 
 Tue, Mar 3 35 Utah St. L 74 - 84 19% 
 Fri, Mar 6 52 @San Diego St. L 71 - 83 13% 
Totals 12 - 18 8 - 12 +1 +0 C C- C +1 B D- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.9 0.1 3.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 3.0 2.1 0.2 6.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.9 3.8 0.8 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.5 6.4 1.9 0.1 17.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 6.1 10.8 8.9 2.9 0.2 30.4 9th
10th 0.2 1.7 5.8 7.5 4.6 1.1 0.1 20.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.2 1.5 4.8 9.9 15.0 17.9 17.5 13.9 9.7 5.7 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 44.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 12.0% 12.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.3% 3.6% 3.6% 11.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 0.9% 3.8% 3.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.9
12-8 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6
11-9 5.7% 1.8% 1.8% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.6
10-10 9.7% 1.1% 1.1% 12.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.5
9-11 13.9% 0.3% 0.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9
8-12 17.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 17.4
7-13 17.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.9
6-14 15.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.9
5-15 9.9% 9.9
4-16 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 12.9 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%