UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.9 #128
Expected Predictive Rating +1.9 #129
Pace 73.7 #56
Improvement +1.3 #135

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #124 B- C- C B C+
Defense #154 C+ C- C+ D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #35 1.18 #142 +4.2 #48
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #196 0.87 #47 +0.9 #126
Three Pointers 36% #300 1.07 #93 -1.8 #245
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #77 +3.3 #77
Freethrows 0.36 #17 69% #299 0.25 #70
Second Chance 31.6% #154 0.89 #334 0.28 #254
Turnovers 16.4% #158
Total Offense +1.8 #124

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.12 #118 -1.3 #220
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #174 0.77 #212 -0.1 #197
Three Pointers 37% #289 0.99 #138 +2.5 #86
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #142 +1.1 #141
Freethrows 0.36 #329 71% #109 0.26 #321
Second Chance 31.3% #211 1.06 #230 0.33 #230
Turnovers 18.0% #96
Total Defense +0.1 #154

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #114 0.5% #213
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.3% #87 -2.6% #132
Possession Length 15.9 #52 17.4 #205
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #112 0.15 #103
Improvement -0.3 #196 +1.6 #93

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 14.5% 24.3% 6.9%
.500 or above in Conference 37.5% 56.0% 23.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Away) - 43.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 5
Quad 23 - 65 - 11
Quad 33 - 48 - 15
Quad 45 - 314 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 203 Tennessee Martin L 81 - 86 77% +1  0 - 1 -11 -3 C A+ F -7 C C- F+
 Sat, Nov 8 275 Chattanooga W 101 - 69 85% +11  1 - 1 +23 +27 A A+ B+ -3 D C B-
 Tue, Nov 11 158 Montana L 93 - 102 69% -6  1 - 2 -12 +7 A- F+ B -18 F+ F D-
 Sun, Nov 16 96 @Memphis W 92 - 78 27% +11  2 - 2 +22 +16 A+ F+ B+ +5 A C- B+
 Thu, Nov 20 132 Saint Joseph's W 99 - 85 62% +4  3 - 2 +13 +16 B B- C -5 C A+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 107 Maryland L 67 - 74 43% +0  3 - 3 -3 -7 D- F C +4 B+ D- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 20 Alabama L 76 - 115 8% -16  3 - 4 -22 -0 B D- B- -17 F+ F+ B
 Thu, Nov 27 114 Rutgers L 65 - 80 45% -3  3 - 5 -12 -6 D+ F A+ -6 B+ D+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 86 @Stanford W 75 - 74 24% -2  4 - 5 +10 +5 B- D C +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 230 Tennessee St. L 60 - 63 80% +2  4 - 6 -10 -17 F F F +8 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 146 Fresno St. W 84 - 72 65% +4  5 - 6 1 - 0 +10 +15 A+ A- C+ -5 B- F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 350 Air Force W 67 - 39 94% +15  6 - 6 2 - 0 +13 -5 F+ B D+ +20 A+ B C
 Tue, Jan 6 111 @Wyoming L 66 - 98 33% -20  6 - 7 2 - 1 -25 -6 D+ C- C -19 F F B-
 Fri, Jan 9 103 @Colorado St. L 62 - 70 29% -0  6 - 8 2 - 2 -0 -4 D C F +3 A+ F A-
 Tue, Jan 13 62 Boise St. W 89 - 85 OT 35% +0  7 - 8 3 - 2 +10 +8 B B C+ +1 C- A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 242 @San Jose St. W 76 - 62 63% +7  8 - 8 4 - 2 +12 +19 A+ F A+ -3 C- B- A-
 Tue, Jan 20 38 @Utah St. W 86 - 76 9% -3  9 - 8 5 - 2 +27 +23 A+ A A +4 A+ B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 43 San Diego St. L 71 - 82 25% -4  9 - 9 5 - 3 -2 +7 A+ C- B -10 F A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 27 45 New Mexico L 61 - 89 26% -18  9 - 10 5 - 4 -19 -11 D- F D+ -7 D A+ C-
 Fri, Jan 30 71 @Nevada L 76 - 89 19% -11  9 - 11 5 - 5 -2 +11 A+ F+ B -14 F C- D
 Tue, Feb 3 146 @Fresno St. L 75 - 77 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 65 Grand Canyon L 73 - 77 36%
 Tue, Feb 10 242 San Jose St. W 80 - 71 81%
 Fri, Feb 13 62 @Boise St. L 71 - 81 17%
 Wed, Feb 18 103 Colorado St. W 75 - 74 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 350 @Air Force W 77 - 66 85%
 Wed, Feb 25 65 @Grand Canyon L 70 - 80 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 71 Nevada L 74 - 77 40%
 Tue, Mar 3 38 Utah St. L 74 - 83 22%
 Fri, Mar 6 43 @San Diego St. L 69 - 82 11%
Totals 13 - 17 9 - 11 +2 +2 B- C- C +0 C+ C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 1.9 0.3 4.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 9.8 7.5 1.5 0.0 21.7 6th
7th 0.1 4.2 14.8 10.3 1.6 0.1 31.1 7th
8th 0.0 2.4 11.4 7.1 0.7 21.6 8th
9th 0.8 6.2 5.7 0.7 13.3 9th
10th 0.3 2.1 3.2 0.7 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.3 2.9 11.9 22.1 25.3 21.0 11.1 4.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.1
13-7 1.2% 3.3% 3.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 1.2
12-8 4.1% 1.4% 1.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 4.0
11-9 11.1% 1.1% 1.1% 11.8 0.0 0.1 11.0
10-10 21.0% 0.5% 0.5% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 20.9
9-11 25.3% 0.2% 0.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.3
8-12 22.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.3 0.1 0.0 22.0
7-13 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 11.9
6-14 2.9% 2.9
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 12.8 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%