Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#47
Expected Predictive Rating+16.7#19
Pace72.5#90
Improvement-2.4#300

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#47
First Shot+5.4#50
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#170
Layup/Dunks+7.2#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#292
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#251
Freethrows+2.6#44
Improvement-2.0#311

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#52
First Shot+4.4#51
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#121
Layups/Dunks+6.3#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#325
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#331
Freethrows+4.4#2
Improvement-0.4#220
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.5% 5.4% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 7.5% 14.5% 3.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.2% 69.7% 47.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 42.7% 58.7% 34.8%
Average Seed 9.0 8.4 9.5
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 99.2% 95.7%
Conference Champion 31.1% 49.8% 20.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.5% 10.2% 12.2%
First Round49.3% 64.4% 41.0%
Second Round23.7% 33.4% 18.4%
Sweet Sixteen7.3% 11.0% 5.3%
Elite Eight2.5% 3.9% 1.8%
Final Four0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 35.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 23 - 3
Quad 26 - 39 - 6
Quad 37 - 216 - 7
Quad 49 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 337   Alcorn St. W 101-46 98%     1 - 0 +40.9 +20.5 +20.6
  Nov 09, 2024 197   Charlotte W 103-74 92%     2 - 0 +24.2 +26.5 -2.1
  Nov 18, 2024 191   Montana W 95-83 92%     3 - 0 +7.4 +12.1 -5.5
  Nov 22, 2024 42   Iowa W 77-69 48%     4 - 0 +19.4 -0.4 +19.0
  Nov 28, 2024 87   St. Bonaventure W 72-67 67%     5 - 0 +11.4 +6.3 +5.3
  Nov 29, 2024 84   North Texas W 61-57 65%     6 - 0 +10.8 +1.1 +10.1
  Dec 04, 2024 159   Wyoming W 70-67 90%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +0.0 +7.0 -6.5
  Dec 07, 2024 287   Utah Tech W 92-62 96%     8 - 0 +20.3 +10.3 +8.9
  Dec 14, 2024 169   South Florida W 88-67 90%     9 - 0 +17.5 +11.6 +5.6
  Dec 17, 2024 90   UC San Diego L 73-75 76%     9 - 1 +1.2 -0.2 +1.5
  Dec 22, 2024 53   @ St. Mary's W 75-68 41%     10 - 1 +20.3 +13.2 +7.5
  Dec 28, 2024 38   @ San Diego St. L 69-73 35%    
  Dec 31, 2024 60   @ Nevada L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 04, 2025 273   Fresno St. W 87-67 97%    
  Jan 07, 2025 162   @ San Jose St. W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 58   Boise St. W 76-72 66%    
  Jan 15, 2025 106   @ UNLV W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 22, 2025 60   Nevada W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 25, 2025 268   @ Air Force W 75-61 89%    
  Jan 29, 2025 106   UNLV W 76-67 80%    
  Feb 01, 2025 65   New Mexico W 85-79 69%    
  Feb 04, 2025 159   @ Wyoming W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 07, 2025 273   @ Fresno St. W 84-70 90%    
  Feb 11, 2025 97   Colorado St. W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 16, 2025 65   @ New Mexico L 81-82 48%    
  Feb 19, 2025 162   San Jose St. W 81-67 89%    
  Feb 22, 2025 38   San Diego St. W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 26, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 73-75 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 97   @ Colorado St. W 74-71 60%    
  Mar 08, 2025 268   Air Force W 78-58 96%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 4.7 8.6 8.7 5.4 2.3 0.4 31.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 6.5 8.9 4.9 1.3 0.1 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.5 6.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.1 5.1 1.6 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.0 3.3 1.0 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.1 0.7 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.4 9.5 13.2 15.9 16.2 13.8 10.0 5.5 2.3 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.0
18-2 98.2% 5.4    5.0 0.4
17-3 86.9% 8.7    6.6 2.0 0.1
16-4 62.2% 8.6    4.6 3.4 0.6 0.0
15-5 28.9% 4.7    1.4 2.1 1.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.5% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.1% 31.1 20.4 8.2 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 53.6% 46.4% 3.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.3% 99.7% 44.4% 55.3% 4.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
18-2 5.5% 97.7% 40.3% 57.4% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.2%
17-3 10.0% 92.8% 34.3% 58.5% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 89.0%
16-4 13.8% 82.7% 29.5% 53.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.0 3.4 1.7 0.0 2.4 75.4%
15-5 16.2% 66.8% 24.6% 42.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.1 3.5 0.1 5.4 55.9%
14-6 15.9% 49.8% 18.7% 31.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 4.2 0.1 8.0 38.3%
13-7 13.2% 33.3% 14.2% 19.1% 10.7 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.9 0.2 8.8 22.2%
12-8 9.5% 21.4% 11.4% 10.0% 10.9 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.2 7.5 11.3%
11-9 6.4% 13.0% 8.7% 4.4% 11.1 0.1 0.7 0.1 5.5 4.8%
10-10 3.7% 7.4% 5.7% 1.7% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.4 1.8%
9-11 1.8% 5.0% 5.0% 11.4 0.1 0.0 1.8
8-12 0.8% 5.1% 5.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.7
7-13 0.3% 2.5% 2.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 4.4% 4.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 55.2% 21.8% 33.4% 9.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.6 8.8 13.3 15.1 0.8 0.0 44.8 42.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.4 19.2 31.7 40.8 5.8 1.7 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.1 16.7 11.9 33.3 23.8 11.9 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.2 2.0 2.0 10.2 53.1 24.5 6.1 2.0