Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.8 #35
Expected Predictive Rating +16.1 #27
Pace 70.3 #156
Improvement +1.5 #100

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #31 A- A+ C C+ A
Defense #44 A- C+ A+ C- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #13 1.28 #67 +8.1 #7
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #324 0.75 #173 -2.9 #315
Three Pointers 40% #200 1.11 #56 +1.5 #127
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #31 +6.7 #31
Freethrows 17.9 #157 76% #72 13.6 #121
Second Chance 38.0% #23 1.23 #19 0.47 #11
Turnovers 16.2% #151
Total Offense +8.0 #31

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #326 1.07 #76 +5.2 #32
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #83 0.65 #59 -0.1 #188
Three Pointers 44% #99 0.93 #86 +0.3 #173
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #42 +5.3 #42
Freethrows 18.6 #246 72% #155 13.4 #127
Second Chance 30.1% #153 1.02 #158 0.31 #151
Turnovers 21.8% #8
Total Defense +5.8 #44

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.4% #18 -1.8% #51
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.5% #47 -8.8% #44
Possession Length 15.9 #62 18.1 #301
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #17 0.16 #125
Improvement +2.5 #42 -1.0 #246

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.0% 6.1% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 14.9% 21.2% 6.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.2% 83.4% 66.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.0% 71.9% 50.8%
Average Seed 8.4 8.0 9.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.9% 99.1%
Conference Champion 58.0% 68.0% 45.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.5% 7.6% 12.0%
First Round71.8% 80.0% 61.2%
Second Round39.7% 46.4% 31.0%
Sweet Sixteen11.5% 14.4% 7.7%
Elite Eight3.9% 4.9% 2.7%
Final Four1.2% 1.4% 0.8%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 56.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 2
Quad 28 - 310 - 5
Quad 310 - 121 - 6
Quad 46 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 49 Virginia Commonwealth W 80 - 77 61%  +8  1 - 0 +14 +5 C A+ F +8 B- A A+
 Wed, Nov 12 212 Weber St. W 83 - 73 96%  +4  2 - 0 +4 +4 F A A+ -0 A+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 15 244 UTEP W 75 - 51 97%  +12  3 - 0 +16 +1 C- B F +16 A+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 176 Tulane W 96 - 75 91%  +6  4 - 0 +20 +24 A+ B+ B+ -3 F C A+
 Sun, Nov 23 125 Davidson W 94 - 60 86%  +17  5 - 0 +36 +23 A+ A D- +13 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 153 Montana St. W 84 - 81 OT 93%  +3  6 - 0 +0 +2 B D+ A- -2 C+ B- A+
 Thu, Dec 4 89 @South Florida L 61 - 74 66%  -15  6 - 1 -3 -9 F D- C +5 C A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 166 @Charlotte W 79 - 53 86%  +11  7 - 1 +28 +11 C+ D- A+ +19 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 85 Illinois St. W 83 - 78 75%  +6  8 - 1 +12 +17 A+ A+ F -5 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 94 Colorado St. W 100 - 58 85%  +24  9 - 1 1 - 0 +45 +35 A+ A+ C +14 A+ A A+
 Tue, Dec 30 157 @Fresno St. W 72 - 63 85%  +7  10 - 1 2 - 0 +12 -3 C+ D F +14 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 221 San Jose St. W 96 - 78 96%  +1  11 - 1 3 - 0 +12 +27 A+ A+ A+ -14 F B C-
 Tue, Jan 6 334 @Air Force W 99 - 62 97%  +20  12 - 1 4 - 0 +29 +32 A- A+ A+ -0 C D- C
 Sat, Jan 10 63 @Boise St. W 73 - 71 56% 
 Wed, Jan 14 90 Nevada W 79 - 69 83% 
 Sat, Jan 17 83 @Grand Canyon W 76 - 72 64% 
 Tue, Jan 20 142 UNLV W 87 - 71 93% 
 Fri, Jan 23 94 @Colorado St. W 76 - 71 68% 
 Wed, Jan 28 95 Wyoming W 82 - 71 85% 
 Sat, Jan 31 52 San Diego St. W 79 - 73 72% 
 Wed, Feb 4 56 @New Mexico W 77 - 76 54% 
 Sat, Feb 7 95 @Wyoming W 79 - 74 68% 
 Tue, Feb 10 157 Fresno St. W 83 - 66 94% 
 Sat, Feb 14 78 Memphis W 79 - 70 80% 
 Wed, Feb 18 63 Boise St. W 76 - 68 76% 
 Sat, Feb 21 90 @Nevada W 76 - 72 65% 
 Wed, Feb 25 52 @San Diego St. W 76 - 75 51% 
 Sat, Feb 28 83 Grand Canyon W 79 - 69 82% 
 Tue, Mar 3 142 @UNLV W 84 - 74 81% 
 Sat, Mar 7 56 New Mexico W 80 - 73 74% 
Totals 24 - 6 16 - 4 +14 +8 A- A+ C +6 A- C+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 6.6 13.8 16.2 12.2 6.3 1.6 58.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.2 8.4 4.6 1.2 0.1 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.4 1.3 0.1 9.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 2.8 0.8 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.4 7.9 11.7 16.3 18.5 17.4 12.3 6.3 1.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
19-1 100.0% 6.3    6.3 0.0
18-2 99.1% 12.2    11.8 0.5
17-3 93.0% 16.2    13.8 2.4 0.0
16-4 74.5% 13.8    8.9 4.4 0.5 0.0
15-5 40.6% 6.6    2.1 3.2 1.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.0% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 58.0% 58.0 44.4 11.0 2.2 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.6% 100.0% 63.2% 36.8% 3.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 6.3% 99.6% 54.4% 45.2% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
18-2 12.3% 96.8% 50.4% 46.4% 6.7 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.8 3.1 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 93.5%
17-3 17.4% 93.0% 44.3% 48.7% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.4 3.9 3.7 2.2 0.4 1.2 87.4%
16-4 18.5% 85.0% 39.1% 45.8% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.0 4.7 4.6 1.7 0.0 2.8 75.3%
15-5 16.3% 74.5% 33.7% 40.8% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.8 3.1 0.0 4.2 61.6%
14-6 11.7% 59.3% 28.0% 31.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.8 2.9 0.0 4.8 43.4%
13-7 7.9% 44.6% 23.0% 21.6% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 0.0 4.4 28.1%
12-8 4.4% 29.5% 17.5% 12.0% 10.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.0 3.1 14.5%
11-9 2.2% 21.2% 14.5% 6.7% 10.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.7 7.8%
10-10 0.9% 15.5% 11.8% 3.7% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 4.2%
9-11 0.4% 3.8% 3.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 76.2% 37.4% 38.8% 8.4 23.8 62.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 2.7 15.0 26.7 36.1 19.4 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 4.5 7.1 50.0 31.0 11.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 4.2 2.7 5.4 10.8 40.5 27.0 13.5