Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.0 28
Results Rating +14.9 34
Pace 69.0 167
Improvement +1.2 138

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 25 B+ A- B C+ A-
Defense B+ 40 B C+ A C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 19 B 64% 59 +7.1 11
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 325 C- 36% 224 -3.0 322
Three Pointers 42% 159 B+ 38% 32 +3.0 83
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.6 18 B+ +4.6 46
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.15 29
Second Chance B+ 36.3% 34 A- 1.19 19 A- 0.43 16
Turnovers B 15.0% 73
Freethrows C+ 0.32 132 C 72% 207 C+ 0.23 137
Total Offense A- +9.0 25

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 58% 40 B- 8.9% 70
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 40% 22 F+ 9.0% 346
Three Pointers B 91% 42 C 0.9% 183
Total A- 67% 18 C 5.6% 187

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 293 B 52% 47 -4.3 49
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 96 B 34% 41 -0.1 181
Three Pointers 42% 129 B- 32% 104 -0.3 166
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.6 78 B+ -4.1 41
1st FG Attempt B 0.93 41
Second Chance C 30.8% 202 B- 0.97 94 C+ 0.30 145
Turnovers A 21.3% 14
Freethrows C- 0.31 216 C 72% 171 C 0.23 217
Total Defense B+ +5.9 40

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 32 C+ 11.9% 134
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 44 D- 1.3% 349
Three Pointers B- 81% 98 B+ 1.9% 37
Total B 50% 66 C- 5.2% 201

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 74 18.2 310
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 14 0.14 78
Improvement +2.5 #82 -1.2 #259

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 38 30 23
Results Rating Rank 44 33 15
Conference Record 14 - 6 16 - 4 17 - 3
Conference Finish 2 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed 11 8 5
NCAA Tourney Finish 1st Round 2nd Round Sweet 16

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 2% 3% 0%
Top 6 Seed 20% 32% 6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96% 98% 94%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93% 96% 91%
Average Seed 7.7 7.1 8.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 87% 97% 76%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 0% 3%
First Round95% 98% 93%
Second Round54% 61% 48%
Sweet Sixteen14% 17% 11%
Elite Eight5% 6% 4%
Final Four1% 2% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 51.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 3
Quad 29 - 213 - 5
Quad 310 - 122 - 6
Quad 45 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 46 Virginia Commonwealth W 80 - 77 64% +8  88% 1 - 0 B+ +14 C+ +2 C A+ F A+ +12 B- A A+
 Wed, Nov 12 211 Weber St. W 83 - 73 96% +4  68% 2 - 0 C+ +4 C +1 F A A+ B- +3 A+ F B
 Sat, Nov 15 243 UTEP W 75 - 51 97% +12  93% 3 - 0 A- +17 C- -0 C+ B+ F A+ +18 A+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 162 Tulane W 96 - 75 91% +6  62% 4 - 0 A +21 A+ +23 A+ A- A- C -1 D- C A-
 Sun, Nov 23 113 Davidson W 94 - 60 86% +17  100% 5 - 0 A+ +37 A+ +20 A+ B D+ A+ +17 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 164 Montana St. W 84 - 81 OT 95% +3  80% 6 - 0 C -0 C- -1 C C B+ C+ +0 B- C A
 Thu, Dec 4 58 @South Florida L 61 - 74 60% -15  0% 6 - 1 C -1 F+ -10 F+ D- C- A +9 C A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 174 @Charlotte W 79 - 53 88% +11  71% 7 - 1 A+ +28 B+ +9 B D A+ A+ +22 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 103 Illinois St. W 83 - 78 83% +6  88% 8 - 1 B +10 A+ +15 A+ A+ F D -5 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 91 Colorado St. W 100 - 58 86% +24  98% 9 - 1 1 - 0 A+ +45 A+ +33 A+ A+ C A+ +17 A+ B A
 Tue, Dec 30 132 @Fresno St. W 72 - 63 83% +7  87% 10 - 1 2 - 0 B+ +14 D -5 B- D- F A+ +18 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 218 San Jose St. W 96 - 78 97% +1  37% 11 - 1 3 - 0 B+ +12 A+ +24 A+ A+ A+ F -11 F+ B- C
 Tue, Jan 6 351 @Air Force W 99 - 62 98% +20  99% 12 - 1 4 - 0 A+ +26 A+ +27 B- A+ A B- +2 B- F+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 64 @Boise St. W 93 - 68 63% +19  98% 13 - 1 5 - 0 A+ +37 A+ +29 A A+ A- A +10 A+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 14 78 Nevada W 71 - 62 84% +3  78% 14 - 1 6 - 0 B+ +14 C +1 B D C+ A+ +13 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 62 @Grand Canyon L 74 - 84 62% -5  2% 14 - 2 6 - 1 C+ +2 A +13 D+ A+ A+ F -12 F C- C
 Tue, Jan 20 118 UNLV L 76 - 86 91% +3  66% 14 - 3 6 - 2 D -10 C -0 D B- A+ F -10 C- F B-
 Fri, Jan 23 91 @Colorado St. W 65 - 61 71% -4  18% 15 - 3 7 - 2 B+ +13 C- -1 B- D+ C- A+ +15 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 100 Wyoming W 94 - 62 88% +22  96% 16 - 3 8 - 2 A+ +34 A+ +24 A+ A+ A+ A+ +12 A+ D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 45 San Diego St. W 71 - 66 74% -2  22% 17 - 3 9 - 2 B+ +13 C- -2 C C- D A+ +15 A- A+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 47 @New Mexico W 86 - 66 53% +8  80% 18 - 3 10 - 2 A+ +34 A +14 A A- B+ A+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 100 @Wyoming W 85 - 83 75% +3  69% 19 - 3 11 - 2 B +10 A+ +15 A+ F C+ D -5 C- B+ F
 Tue, Feb 10 132 Fresno St. W 91 - 78 92% +10  79% 20 - 3 12 - 2 B+ +12 A+ +17 A- A+ A+ D+ -5 A- F D-
 Sat, Feb 14 101 Memphis W 99 - 75 89% +9  81% 21 - 3 A+ +26 A+ +26 A+ A A+ C -0 A+ F+ D
 Wed, Feb 18 64 Boise St. W 75 - 56 81% +9  69% 22 - 3 13 - 2 A+ +25 A +13 A A+ A A+ +14 A A+ A
 Sat, Feb 21 78 @Nevada L 77 - 80 67% +3  75% 22 - 4 13 - 3 B- +8 B+ +9 A F B C -1 F B A+
 Wed, Feb 25 45 @San Diego St. W 74 - 73 51%
 Sat, Feb 28 62 Grand Canyon W 78 - 69 81%
 Tue, Mar 3 118 @UNLV W 86 - 77 81%
 Sat, Mar 7 47 New Mexico W 82 - 75 74%
Totals 25 - 5 16 - 4 +15 A- +9 A+ B+ A- B+ +6 B+ C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B C- B+ B+ 46% 24% 42% A- B+ B+ A- A- B C+ C C+ B+ B B B- B+ 35% 23% 42% B- B C B- C+ A C- C C
1.22 64% 36% 38% +5 +2 1.15 36% 1.2 .43 15% .32 72% .23 1.00 52% 34% 32% -4 -1 0.93 31% 1.0 .30 21% .31 72% .23
Nov
7		 Virginia Commonwealth C+ D- F A+ D+ 64% 13% 23% A+ C A A+ A+ F A+ D+ A+ A+ B C- D+ C+ 31% 14% 55% B+ B- D A+ A A+ F A+ C
1.05 47% 17% 45% -6 +3 0.96 39% 1.4 .56 24% .45 69% .31 1.01 53% 43% 37% +2 0 1.06 38% 0.7 .27 25% .49 57% .28
Nov
12		 Weber St. C A D F F 42% 16% 42% C F C+ A+ A A+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ C- A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% B A+ C- F F B F D F
1.17 74% 33% 13% -7 +1 0.89 31% 1.5 .46 8% .45 76% .34 1.03 39% 38% 26% -13 0 0.78 33% 1.6 .54 18% .48 75% .36
Nov
15		 UTEP C- A+ C F C 39% 12% 49% A- C+ A+ D B+ F A+ F A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 32% 32% C- A+ B F+ C A+ F A+ C-
1.10 75% 40% 25% 0 +1 1.05 47% 0.9 .43 25% .71 64% .45 0.75 69% 14% 14% -13 -2 0.73 23% 1.1 .26 24% .36 53% .19
Nov
21		 Tulane A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 24% 42% D+ A+ C+ A+ A- A- C- D+ D+ C A+ A F F 20% 22% 57% A D- A- F C A- B- B B
1.40 76% 67% 52% +25 -1 1.50 36% 1.2 .44 15% .31 67% .20 1.09 30% 27% 50% +6 -2 1.10 16% 1.6 .25 19% .34 74% .25
Nov
23		 Davidson A+ A+ F A+ A+ 40% 13% 47% A- A+ C A+ B D+ D- A+ C+ A+ F A A A 17% 28% 54% A+ A+ D+ B+ C+ A+ D C+ D+
1.34 86% 29% 44% +17 +1 1.38 29% 1.3 .38 20% .25 86% .21 0.85 75% 31% 28% -4 -2 0.89 33% 0.9 .31 27% .33 65% .21
Nov
29		 Montana St. C- F A+ B D+ 54% 7% 39% A C D- A+ C B+ A+ F A C+ A- D C B- 22% 22% 55% C+ B- F+ A- C A D+ F F
1.08 43% 75% 36% -4 +3 1.00 24% 1.3 .32 13% .39 69% .27 1.05 46% 46% 34% -1 -1 0.98 33% 0.9 .29 21% .29 89% .26
Dec
4		 South Florida F+ F D D- F 37% 24% 39% C+ F+ C- F D- C- D- D+ D- A A- F D+ C 48% 7% 45% C- C A+ B- A+ A+ F C- F
0.86 42% 33% 30% -9 0 0.82 28% 0.8 .21 20% .26 67% .18 1.05 48% 67% 35% -2 +2 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 24% .60 75% .45
Dec
7		 Charlotte B+ A+ F F C+ 48% 10% 42% A B C F D A+ C A+ B+ A+ A- A A+ A+ 20% 20% 60% A+ A+ D- F F A+ F A+ C
1.22 79% 20% 24% +2 +2 1.10 30% 0.9 .27 9% .32 84% .27 0.82 50% 25% 21% -16 -1 0.68 39% 1.3 .50 29% .44 55% .24
Dec
13		 Illinois St. A+ A F A+ A+ 54% 13% 33% A+ A+ A+ D- A+ F C A+ B D F D B F 39% 32% 30% A- F F+ F F A+ D F F
1.24 69% 17% 44% +8 +2 1.23 63% 0.8 .53 24% .29 80% .24 1.17 88% 43% 31% +12 -1 1.23 33% 1.7 .57 25% .32 81% .26
Dec
20		 Colorado St. A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 10% 40% A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ F A A+ A+ C A A+ 32% 20% 49% B A+ B+ C B A D- C- F+
1.57 67% 60% 58% +21 +2 1.48 59% 1.2 .70 16% .45 58% .26 0.91 38% 38% 30% -9 0 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 24% .39 79% .31
Dec
30		 Fresno St. D B- D D- C+ 51% 12% 37% A B- C+ F D- F A+ D- A A+ C B A+ A+ 33% 24% 43% B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F F+ F
0.95 64% 33% 28% -1 +2 1.04 29% 0.7 .21 26% .39 68% .27 0.83 59% 33% 23% -8 -1 0.84 24% 0.2 .05 24% .38 82% .31
Jan
3		 San Jose St. A+ B+ A A+ A+ 57% 9% 35% A A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ F C+ A F F+ 38% 23% 38% F+ F+ D- A B- C F F F
1.49 69% 50% 44% +12 +3 1.33 42% 1.7 .71 12% .46 81% .37 1.21 56% 27% 50% +6 0 1.13 38% 0.8 .31 16% .40 82% .33
Jan
6		 Air Force A+ C C+ B+ C 43% 13% 43% A- B- A+ A+ A+ A D+ D- D B- C A+ C B- 41% 20% 39% C+ B- C+ F F+ D+ F+ F F
1.50 61% 43% 39% +5 +1 1.15 44% 2.2 .97 11% .29 65% .19 0.94 58% 11% 33% -6 0 0.91 21% 1.6 .33 20% .36 74% .26
Jan
10		 Boise St. A+ B+ C B+ A- 43% 11% 46% A+ A A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ A A+ F A A+ 37% 14% 49% C+ A+ F D- F B+ F B- F
1.42 65% 40% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 2.2 .90 12% .37 76% .28 1.04 38% 50% 29% -10 +1 0.84 40% 1.1 .46 18% .47 76% .36
Jan
14		 Nevada C B D C B 45% 14% 41% B+ B D+ C- D C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ F C+ 44% 33% 23% B- C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ B+ C B+
1.08 60% 33% 33% 0 +1 1.05 23% 1.1 .27 17% .44 83% .37 0.94 43% 25% 64% -1 -1 0.98 37% 0.2 .07 21% .33 76% .25
Jan
17		 Grand Canyon A F A+ F D+ 35% 25% 40% C D+ A+ C- A+ A+ A C+ A- F D+ F F F 43% 18% 39% C- F D- B C- C F A- F
1.12 33% 62% 24% -9 -1 0.83 47% 1.0 .49 11% .39 74% .29 1.28 63% 50% 41% +9 +1 1.20 38% 1.0 .38 17% .60 70% .42
Jan
20		 UNLV C C- F F F+ 50% 6% 44% A+ D B- B- B- A+ A+ F C+ F A D+ F C- 51% 23% 26% C- C- F F F B- F F F
1.11 56% 0% 27% -8 +3 0.92 33% 1.2 .38 12% .51 55% .28 1.26 46% 45% 58% +5 +1 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 18% .44 84% .37
Jan
23		 Colorado St. C- A- A+ F B 32% 30% 38% D B- D- A D+ C- F A+ F A+ F C+ F D 16% 37% 47% A+ C B- F F A+ A A A+
1.05 69% 53% 26% +4 -2 1.06 21% 1.3 .28 16% .10 80% .08 0.98 83% 36% 44% +11 -4 1.16 30% 1.7 .52 34% .24 70% .17
Jan
28		 Wyoming A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 35% 7% 58% B- A+ B A+ A+ A+ D B- D+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 36% 13% 51% C+ A+ C- D D+ B+ C- A+ B-
1.43 74% 75% 38% +11 +1 1.27 31% 1.6 .48 8% .35 71% .25 0.94 41% 33% 25% -14 +1 0.77 37% 1.1 .40 20% .34 67% .23
Jan
31		 San Diego St. C- D A+ F D+ 50% 7% 43% A+ C A F C- D A F C A+ A+ F A+ A+ 38% 19% 42% F+ A- A+ A+ A+ C B- C C+
0.94 50% 50% 25% -9 +3 0.89 38% 0.6 .23 24% .40 57% .23 0.88 45% 60% 27% -5 0 0.92 16% 0.7 .11 17% .29 78% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 New Mexico A B- A+ C+ A- 35% 12% 53% A- A B A A- B+ A D- B+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 53% 19% 28% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F
1.18 61% 67% 33% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.2 .39 16% .36 68% .25 0.91 60% 22% 23% -7 +1 0.91 21% 0.3 .06 21% .52 70% .36
Feb
7		 Wyoming A+ A+ F A+ A+ 63% 9% 28% A A+ F F F C+ A+ B- A+ D A F F C- 46% 11% 43% D+ C- A C- B+ F A- F B-
1.26 78% 25% 50% +18 +3 1.44 15% 0.7 .10 16% .51 72% .37 1.23 46% 67% 42% +2 +2 1.11 29% 1.0 .29 10% .26 88% .23
Feb
10		 Fresno St. A+ C F A B+ 37% 6% 57% A- A- B- A+ A+ A+ B+ A- A- D+ D A+ B A- 33% 23% 44% B+ A- F D- F D- F D+ F
1.30 60% 0% 39% +3 +2 1.11 31% 2.0 .63 13% .31 79% .25 1.11 65% 17% 30% -5 -1 0.90 38% 1.1 .43 14% .38 78% .30
Feb
14		 Memphis A+ A+ F A- A+ 42% 10% 48% A A+ B- A+ A A+ A+ B- A+ C B A+ A+ A+ 32% 32% 36% A A+ F C- F+ D F F+ F
1.38 76% 20% 38% +8 +2 1.22 36% 1.2 .42 13% .57 75% .43 1.05 53% 20% 24% -13 -2 0.72 44% 1.2 .51 17% .57 79% .45
Feb
18		 Boise St. A A C- A A 40% 17% 43% A- A B- A+ A+ A D+ C C- A+ A+ F+ B- A+ 39% 18% 43% B A D- A+ A+ A A+ C A+
1.25 68% 38% 40% +8 +1 1.19 24% 1.7 .40 12% .24 69% .17 0.93 42% 44% 33% -5 0 0.92 38% 0.4 .15 20% .19 78% .15
Feb
21		 Nevada B+ D- F A+ A 32% 9% 58% B A C+ F F B C+ F D+ C F A+ F F 40% 18% 43% F+ F D A+ B A+ F B- F
1.14 47% 20% 45% +5 +1 1.13 29% 0.7 .20 15% .33 63% .21 1.19 69% 14% 59% +16 +1 1.35 38% 0.8 .31 22% .52 74% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.6 17.5 42.4 26.1 86.6 1st
2nd 0.0 3.8 7.0 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 2.1 3rd
4th 0.4 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.7 6.3 24.6 42.4 26.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 26.1    26.1
16-4 100.0% 42.4    35.6 6.8
15-5 71.3% 17.5    4.3 10.1 3.1
14-6 9.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 86.6% 86.6 66.0 16.9 3.3 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 26.1% 99.2% 47.0% 52.3% 6.4 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.0 8.2 7.2 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.2 98.6%
16-4 42.4% 97.2% 41.8% 55.4% 7.8 0.0 0.4 4.6 11.6 13.0 8.5 2.8 0.2 1.2 95.2%
15-5 24.6% 93.7% 36.7% 56.9% 8.6 0.0 0.7 3.0 6.7 7.2 4.4 1.0 1.6 90.0%
14-6 6.3% 87.2% 32.6% 54.6% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.7 0.7 0.0 0.8 81.0%
13-7 0.7% 71.6% 24.9% 46.7% 9.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 62.2%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.1% 41.2% 54.9% 7.7 3.9 93.3%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.3% 100.0% 5.6 0.1 1.8 10.4 30.0 43.9 12.7 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.8% 99.2% 7.0 0.1 0.1 4.1 25.0 43.5 20.9 5.3 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.3% 98.5% 7.3 0.1 2.1 18.1 39.8 28.7 9.0 0.8
Lose Out 0.1% 40.0% 10.4 2.9 17.1 17.1 2.9