Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#49
Expected Predictive Rating+15.0#30
Pace70.9#105
Improvement-4.1#328

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#34
First Shot+7.6#21
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#230
Layup/Dunks+8.4#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#297
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#219
Freethrows+2.7#41
Improvement-0.9#235

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#91
First Shot+3.5#74
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#218
Layups/Dunks+5.7#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#335
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#320
Freethrows+4.2#2
Improvement-3.3#330
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 2.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.0% 65.7% 50.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.1% 57.0% 42.0%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 26.3% 30.6% 12.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four17.1% 17.0% 17.7%
First Round52.3% 56.2% 40.3%
Second Round18.8% 20.8% 12.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 4.3% 2.4%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 75.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 2
Quad 26 - 411 - 6
Quad 35 - 116 - 7
Quad 410 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 320   Alcorn St. W 101-46 97%     1 - 0 +43.1 +23.9 +19.3
  Nov 09, 2024 221   Charlotte W 103-74 92%     2 - 0 +23.2 +27.4 -4.0
  Nov 18, 2024 207   Montana W 95-83 91%     3 - 0 +7.2 +11.8 -5.3
  Nov 22, 2024 60   Iowa W 77-69 53%     4 - 0 +17.4 -2.1 +18.8
  Nov 28, 2024 95   St. Bonaventure W 72-67 68%     5 - 0 +10.3 +3.4 +7.1
  Nov 29, 2024 70   North Texas W 61-57 59%     6 - 0 +11.8 +1.5 +10.7
  Dec 04, 2024 167   Wyoming W 70-67 88%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +0.5 +8.4 -7.4
  Dec 07, 2024 292   Utah Tech W 92-62 96%     8 - 0 +20.4 +10.7 +8.6
  Dec 14, 2024 177   South Florida W 88-67 89%     9 - 0 +17.7 +12.9 +4.5
  Dec 17, 2024 65   UC San Diego L 73-75 67%     9 - 1 +3.7 +1.5 +2.3
  Dec 22, 2024 31   @ St. Mary's W 75-68 27%     10 - 1 +23.6 +15.5 +8.5
  Dec 28, 2024 52   @ San Diego St. W 67-66 41%     11 - 1 2 - 0 +13.7 +4.0 +9.7
  Dec 31, 2024 88   @ Nevada W 69-64 55%     12 - 1 3 - 0 +14.0 +7.5 +7.0
  Jan 04, 2025 259   Fresno St. W 89-83 95%     13 - 1 4 - 0 -2.1 +5.3 -7.9
  Jan 07, 2025 146   @ San Jose St. W 85-78 74%     14 - 1 5 - 0 +10.6 +19.3 -8.2
  Jan 11, 2025 51   Boise St. W 81-79 60%     15 - 1 6 - 0 +9.7 +27.1 -17.0
  Jan 15, 2025 101   @ UNLV L 62-65 62%     15 - 2 6 - 1 +4.1 +2.1 +1.6
  Jan 22, 2025 88   Nevada W 90-69 72%     16 - 2 7 - 1 +25.0 +26.4 +0.3
  Jan 25, 2025 277   @ Air Force W 87-58 90%     17 - 2 8 - 1 +25.1 +17.1 +9.5
  Jan 29, 2025 101   UNLV W 76-71 78%     18 - 2 9 - 1 +7.1 +4.1 +3.0
  Feb 01, 2025 40   New Mexico L 63-82 53%     18 - 3 9 - 2 -9.6 -6.8 -1.8
  Feb 04, 2025 167   @ Wyoming W 75-67 76%    
  Feb 07, 2025 259   @ Fresno St. W 86-73 88%    
  Feb 11, 2025 77   Colorado St. W 76-71 71%    
  Feb 16, 2025 40   @ New Mexico L 78-82 33%    
  Feb 19, 2025 146   San Jose St. W 81-69 87%    
  Feb 22, 2025 52   San Diego St. W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 26, 2025 51   @ Boise St. L 74-76 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 77   @ Colorado St. W 74-73 48%    
  Mar 08, 2025 277   Air Force W 80-61 97%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.5 11.1 9.3 2.3 26.3 1st
2nd 0.4 6.2 20.2 12.3 1.7 40.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.7 11.0 5.2 0.2 19.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.1 3.1 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.6 0.1 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.4 9.7 20.6 28.9 23.5 11.0 2.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 2.3    2.2 0.2
17-3 84.7% 9.3    6.4 2.9 0.0
16-4 47.1% 11.1    3.9 6.1 1.1 0.0
15-5 12.0% 3.5    0.3 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.0
14-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.3% 26.3 12.8 10.6 2.5 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 2.3% 97.0% 33.3% 63.7% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 95.5%
17-3 11.0% 92.1% 27.1% 65.0% 8.6 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.2 0.5 0.9 89.1%
16-4 23.5% 80.6% 24.2% 56.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.2 7.3 3.7 0.0 4.6 74.5%
15-5 28.9% 62.4% 19.1% 43.3% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 7.1 7.7 0.2 10.9 53.5%
14-6 20.6% 43.3% 13.3% 30.0% 10.5 0.1 0.6 3.0 5.1 0.2 11.7 34.6%
13-7 9.7% 31.0% 10.2% 20.8% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 0.2 6.7 23.2%
12-8 3.4% 21.8% 9.9% 11.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 2.6 13.2%
11-9 0.6% 3.6% 1.8% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.5 1.9%
10-10 0.1% 0.0 0.1
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 62.0% 19.0% 43.0% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.1 5.8 11.8 20.4 19.7 0.6 38.0 53.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 4.8 1.3 12.8 26.9 25.6 26.9 6.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 7.0 9.1 25.5 29.1 29.1 5.5 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 96.8% 7.8 9.5 30.2 31.7 22.2 3.2