Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.5 #38
Expected Predictive Rating +14.0 #37
Pace 69.1 #170
Improvement +0.2 #172

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #41 B A B- C B+
Defense #42 B C A C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #20 1.26 #75 +6.7 #13
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #331 0.76 #163 -2.5 #296
Three Pointers 41% #176 1.07 #95 +1.4 #129
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #52 +5.6 #45
Freethrows 0.31 #163 72% #196 0.22 #168
Second Chance 37.4% #26 1.23 #16 0.46 #11
Turnovers 15.3% #97
Total Offense +7.6 #41

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #310 1.02 #32 +5.3 #35
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #86 0.73 #125 -0.6 #236
Three Pointers 43% #111 0.95 #91 +0.3 #168
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #47 +4.9 #44
Freethrows 0.31 #205 72% #162 0.22 #197
Second Chance 31.3% #210 1.00 #133 0.31 #171
Turnovers 21.6% #9
Total Defense +6.0 #42

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.1% #21 -1.4% #64
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.5% #73 -8.1% #46
Possession Length 16.1 #67 18.1 #302
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #16 0.14 #97
Improvement +0.8 #136 -0.6 #219

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.8% 3.8% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 11.2% 18.5% 4.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.5% 92.4% 81.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.4% 88.5% 73.8%
Average Seed 8.4 7.9 9.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 42.8% 59.8% 27.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.2% 3.7% 10.3%
First Round83.2% 90.9% 76.4%
Second Round42.3% 50.1% 35.4%
Sweet Sixteen9.4% 12.1% 7.1%
Elite Eight3.0% 3.9% 2.2%
Final Four0.6% 1.1% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 46.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b3 - 33 - 3
Quad 29 - 212 - 5
Quad 39 - 121 - 6
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 50 Virginia Commonwealth W 80 - 77 62% +8  1 - 0 +13 +4 C- A+ F +10 B- A- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 221 Weber St. W 83 - 73 96% +4  2 - 0 +4 +4 F+ A- A+ -1 A+ F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 257 UTEP W 75 - 51 97% +12  3 - 0 +16 +2 C B+ F +15 A+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 171 Tulane W 96 - 75 90% +6  4 - 0 +20 +24 A+ B+ B+ -3 D- C A-
 Sun, Nov 23 117 Davidson W 94 - 60 83% +17  5 - 0 +37 +23 A+ B+ D +14 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 166 Montana St. W 84 - 81 OT 93% +3  6 - 0 -0 +1 C C B+ -2 B- C+ A-
 Thu, Dec 4 70 @South Florida L 61 - 74 59% -15  6 - 1 -2 -8 F+ D C- +6 C- A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 157 @Charlotte W 79 - 53 84% +11  7 - 1 +29 +11 B- D A+ +20 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 87 Illinois St. W 83 - 78 75% +6  8 - 1 +11 +18 A+ A+ F -7 F+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 103 Colorado St. W 100 - 58 86% +24  9 - 1 1 - 0 +44 +35 A+ A+ C +13 A+ B A-
 Tue, Dec 30 146 @Fresno St. W 72 - 63 82% +7  10 - 1 2 - 0 +13 -1 B D F +14 A A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 3 242 San Jose St. W 96 - 78 96% +1  11 - 1 3 - 0 +10 +26 A+ A+ A+ -14 D- C+ C-
 Tue, Jan 6 350 @Air Force W 99 - 62 97% +20  12 - 1 4 - 0 +28 +31 B A+ A -1 C+ F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 62 @Boise St. W 93 - 68 56% +19  13 - 1 5 - 0 +37 +33 A A+ A- +6 A+ F+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 71 Nevada W 71 - 62 79% +3  14 - 1 6 - 0 +14 +4 B D+ C+ +10 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 65 @Grand Canyon L 74 - 84 57% -5  14 - 2 6 - 1 +2 +15 C- A+ A+ -14 F D+ C
 Tue, Jan 20 128 UNLV L 76 - 86 91% +3  14 - 3 6 - 2 -11 +4 D+ B- A+ -15 C- F C+
 Fri, Jan 23 103 @Colorado St. W 65 - 61 71% -4  15 - 3 7 - 2 +12 +1 C+ D+ C +11 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 111 Wyoming W 94 - 62 88% +22  16 - 3 8 - 2 +33 +27 A+ A+ A+ +8 A+ D+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 43 San Diego St. W 71 - 66 67% -2  17 - 3 9 - 2 +14 +0 C C D +13 A A+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 45 @New Mexico L 77 - 78 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 111 @Wyoming W 78 - 71 75%
 Tue, Feb 10 146 Fresno St. W 82 - 66 93%
 Sat, Feb 14 96 Memphis W 79 - 68 85%
 Wed, Feb 18 62 Boise St. W 77 - 69 76%
 Sat, Feb 21 71 @Nevada W 74 - 72 59%
 Wed, Feb 25 43 @San Diego St. L 73 - 74 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 65 Grand Canyon W 77 - 69 77%
 Tue, Mar 3 128 @UNLV W 83 - 74 78%
 Sat, Mar 7 45 New Mexico W 80 - 75 67%
Totals 24 - 6 15 - 5 +14 +8 B A B- +6 B C A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 6.2 18.2 14.2 4.1 42.8 1st
2nd 0.1 3.8 14.7 6.1 0.4 25.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 9.2 5.1 0.1 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.3 4.3 0.2 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.7 0.4 5.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.3 8.9 17.9 26.2 24.4 14.6 4.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 4.1    4.1
17-3 97.4% 14.2    12.1 2.1
16-4 74.7% 18.2    7.7 8.8 1.7 0.0
15-5 23.6% 6.2    0.7 2.2 2.4 0.7 0.0
14-6 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 42.8% 42.8 24.5 13.2 4.2 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 4.1% 100.0% 47.4% 52.6% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 14.6% 98.8% 41.6% 57.2% 7.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.5 4.0 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.2 98.0%
16-4 24.4% 94.6% 35.7% 58.9% 8.2 0.2 1.9 4.7 6.9 6.1 2.8 0.4 1.3 91.5%
15-5 26.2% 89.9% 30.1% 59.8% 9.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 5.7 7.4 6.4 1.8 2.6 85.6%
14-6 17.9% 77.7% 23.3% 54.4% 9.6 0.1 0.3 1.7 3.9 5.2 2.7 4.0 70.9%
13-7 8.9% 63.9% 19.5% 44.4% 10.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.3 2.0 0.0 3.2 55.2%
12-8 3.3% 49.2% 17.8% 31.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.7 38.2%
11-9 0.6% 34.9% 18.6% 16.3% 10.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 20.0%
10-10 0.1% 12.0% 12.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 12.0%
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 86.5% 31.2% 55.3% 8.4 13.5 80.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 4.0 0.6 5.4 24.8 40.7 23.6 3.7 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 5.9 5.3 35.3 30.0 24.7 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 5.9 0.6 8.8 25.8 34.0 24.5 6.3