Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.2 #160
Expected Predictive Rating +0.0 #162
Pace 65.3 #269
Improvement +5.9 #13

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #217 D+ C- B- B F+
Defense #123 C+ B- C C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #333 1.11 #244 -4.8 #332
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #23 0.69 #288 +2.7 #59
Three Pointers 38% #246 1.03 #173 -1.4 #234
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #281 -3.4 #281
Freethrows 0.36 #24 72% #216 0.26 #41
Second Chance 29.9% #206 1.00 #216 0.30 #211
Turnovers 15.2% #91
Total Offense -1.9 #217

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #158 1.23 #282 -2.1 #250
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #97 0.58 #4 +1.1 #103
Three Pointers 38% #273 0.96 #106 +2.7 #75
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #121 +1.7 #123
Freethrows 0.32 #243 70% #72 0.23 #220
Second Chance 31.8% #230 0.85 #11 0.27 #71
Turnovers 16.9% #163
Total Defense +1.6 #123

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.5% #348 -0.4% #134
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.3% #233 -3.0% #117
Possession Length 18.2 #270 17.3 #201
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #359 0.14 #88
Improvement +3.7 #22 +2.2 #63

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.5% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.4 14.3
.500 or above 39.7% 61.4% 30.8%
.500 or above in Conference 47.4% 70.9% 37.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round2.1% 3.5% 1.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 29.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 61 - 10
Quad 36 - 57 - 14
Quad 48 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 321 Eastern Illinois W 66 - 63 88% +5  1 - 0 -10 -9 F D+ C- -1 D A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 26 @Kentucky L 59 - 107 5% -31  1 - 1 -29 -8 F D A- -18 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 249 Nicholls St. W 68 - 63 78% +3  2 - 1 -3 -1 F+ D A+ -2 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 16 347 Bryant W 68 - 50 91% +4  3 - 1 +3 -3 F C+ B +9 A+ D+ C+
 Wed, Nov 19 306 @Cleveland St. W 90 - 75 69% +12  4 - 1 +10 +11 B- B- B- -1 B- B F
 Wed, Nov 26 332 Southern Indiana L 56 - 64 89% -6  4 - 2 -22 -19 F C B -2 D+ F+ B+
 Sat, Nov 29 273 Western Michigan W 84 - 55 80% +14  5 - 2 +20 +11 B- A D +11 A+ D- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 95 @Marquette L 72 - 75 OT 20% +2  5 - 3 +6 -3 C+ C F +9 A A B+
 Sat, Dec 13 116 UNC Wilmington L 70 - 73 49% +2  5 - 4 -3 +4 F A A- -7 B+ F+ D+
 Tue, Dec 16 63 @Northwestern L 70 - 86 13% -12  5 - 5 -4 +4 C+ B+ F -8 D- C D
 Sun, Dec 21 106 Murray St. L 79 - 85 44% +2  5 - 6 0 - 1 -5 +2 C+ C C+ -6 F+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 110 @Northern Iowa L 48 - 58 26% -3  5 - 7 0 - 2 -3 -6 F+ F B+ +1 C+ C B-
 Thu, Jan 1 137 @Southern Illinois L 70 - 75 33% -5  5 - 8 0 - 3 -1 -2 F F A+ +1 A- C+ F+
 Sun, Jan 4 135 Illinois-Chicago W 66 - 59 55% -1  6 - 8 1 - 3 +6 +2 D D+ B +4 B- B- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 87 Illinois St. W 77 - 71 36% +5  7 - 8 2 - 3 +9 +13 A+ F C+ -3 A- C- D
 Sat, Jan 10 106 @Murray St. L 79 - 92 24% -6  7 - 9 2 - 4 -6 +1 B- D+ F -6 F A+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 74 @Belmont L 74 - 78 15% -3  7 - 10 2 - 5 +7 +10 C- A+ C+ -4 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 110 Northern Iowa W 54 - 44 47% +2  8 - 10 3 - 5 +11 -4 F B A+ +16 A+ B C-
 Wed, Jan 21 137 Southern Illinois W 69 - 63 55% +11  9 - 10 4 - 5 +4 +6 A- D B -1 A- B- C+
 Wed, Jan 28 74 Belmont L 77 - 78 31% -2  9 - 11 4 - 6 +4 +6 B+ F A -3 D+ D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 198 @Indiana St. W 76 - 72 OT 47% -3  10 - 11 5 - 6 +5 +3 D- C+ B +1 C B+ D+
 Tue, Feb 3 121 @Bradley L 68 - 74 29%
 Fri, Feb 6 269 Evansville W 73 - 64 80%
 Mon, Feb 9 162 @Drake L 68 - 71 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 87 @Illinois St. L 63 - 73 19%
 Sun, Feb 15 198 Indiana St. W 74 - 69 69%
 Wed, Feb 18 121 Bradley W 72 - 71 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 135 @Illinois-Chicago L 66 - 71 32%
 Wed, Feb 25 162 Drake W 71 - 68 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 269 @Evansville W 70 - 67 61%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 11 +0 -2 D+ C- B- +2 C+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.5 0.9 0.2 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.7 2.5 0.7 0.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.7 2.9 0.2 7.2 4th
5th 0.1 4.7 7.4 0.7 12.9 5th
6th 0.1 3.7 11.3 3.1 0.1 18.3 6th
7th 0.1 4.3 14.8 6.8 0.3 26.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.8 11.2 5.6 0.3 22.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 3.4 1.6 0.2 6.7 9th
10th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.4 2.3 8.4 17.2 24.3 23.5 15.3 6.7 1.8 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 11.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.2% 4.8% 4.8% 11.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 1.8% 3.5% 3.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 1.8
12-8 6.7% 5.2% 5.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.3
11-9 15.3% 4.4% 4.4% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 14.6
10-10 23.5% 2.2% 2.2% 13.8 0.2 0.3 0.0 23.0
9-11 24.3% 1.5% 1.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 24.0
8-12 17.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.1 0.1 17.0
7-13 8.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.4
6-14 2.3% 2.3
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 13.9 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%