Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.3 151
Results Rating +2.1 128
Pace 64.4 292
Improvement +4.6 30

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 184 D C+ B- B- F+
Defense C+ 140 C+ B- C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 333 C- 57% 210 -4.1 321
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 67 D 34% 317 +2.5 56
Three Pointers 37% 271 C 34% 187 -2.2 256
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.7 344 C- -2.0 250
1st FG Attempt D 0.95 298
Second Chance C+ 31.7% 148 C+ 1.07 120 C+ 0.34 114
Turnovers B- 15.1% 78
Freethrows B 0.35 41 D+ 70% 269 B- 0.25 93
Total Offense C -0.8 184

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 210 C 11.0% 179
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 267 C- 5.8% 241
Three Pointers D 79% 296 B- 0.5% 77
Total D 49% 309 C 5.5% 177

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 135 D+ 61% 253 +2.1 252
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 118 A 30% 7 -1.1 105
Three Pointers 38% 279 C+ 33% 132 -2.2 89
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 149 C+ -1.1 133
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 132
Second Chance C- 31.5% 228 B+ 0.90 26 B- 0.28 100
Turnovers C 17.2% 150
Freethrows C 0.31 209 B- 71% 87 C 0.22 183
Total Defense C+ +1.1 140

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 55 C 11.2% 164
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 80 B 7.9% 47
Three Pointers C 84% 192 D 0.2% 326
Total B- 51% 79 C+ 6.3% 125

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 279 17.6 251
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 358 0.14 81
Improvement +4.7 #8 -0.1 #198

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 174 153 134
Results Rating Rank 154 131 113
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 12 - 8
Conference Finish 7 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 3% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.8
.500 or above 97% 100% 89%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round3% 3% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Drake (Home) - 68.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 81 - 10
Quad 37 - 28 - 13
Quad 49 - 217 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 324 Eastern Illinois W 66 - 63 89% +5  87% 1 - 0 D -10 F -12 F C- C- B- +2 D- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 25 @Kentucky L 59 - 107 5% -31  0% 1 - 1 F -29 F -11 F D+ A- F -15 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 256 Nicholls St. W 68 - 63 79% +3  85% 2 - 1 C- -3 D -5 F+ F+ A+ B- +2 C+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 16 354 Bryant W 68 - 50 94% +4  70% 3 - 1 C +1 F+ -8 F C+ B A +11 A+ D+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 314 @Cleveland St. W 90 - 75 74% +12  95% 4 - 1 B +9 B +7 C+ B- B C+ +2 B B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 339 Southern Indiana L 56 - 64 91% -6  3% 4 - 2 F -23 F -24 F D B+ C+ +1 D+ D- A-
 Sat, Nov 29 288 Western Michigan W 84 - 55 84% +14  93% 5 - 2 A +18 B+ +8 C+ A+ D A+ +13 A D- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 88 @Marquette L 72 - 75 OT 19% +2  62% 5 - 3 B- +6 D -5 B- C F A+ +12 A A A-
 Sat, Dec 13 108 UNC Wilmington L 70 - 73 48% +2  49% 5 - 4 C- -2 C+ +2 F A A D+ -5 B+ F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 69 @Northwestern L 70 - 86 15% -12  0% 5 - 5 C- -5 C +1 C+ B F+ D -6 F+ C- D
 Sun, Dec 21 123 Murray St. L 79 - 85 52% +2  62% 5 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 C- -1 C C+ C+ D+ -5 F A+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 94 @Northern Iowa L 48 - 58 21% -3  10% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C -1 F+ -9 F F A B+ +5 B C B+
 Thu, Jan 1 125 @Southern Illinois L 70 - 75 31% -5  20% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C +1 C- -2 F F+ A+ B- +3 A- C F
 Sun, Jan 4 109 Illinois-Chicago W 66 - 59 49% -1  38% 6 - 8 1 - 3 B- +8 C +1 D D+ B+ A- +7 B B- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 103 Illinois St. W 77 - 71 45% +5  76% 7 - 8 2 - 3 B- +8 A- +10 A+ F C- C- -2 A- D+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 123 @Murray St. L 79 - 92 30% -6  15% 7 - 9 2 - 4 D+ -7 C- -2 B- D+ F D -5 F A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 67 @Belmont L 74 - 78 15% -3  10% 7 - 10 2 - 5 B- +7 B +7 D+ A+ C+ C -0 D+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 94 Northern Iowa W 54 - 44 40% +2  65% 8 - 10 3 - 5 B+ +13 D -6 F B A+ A+ +21 A+ B+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 125 Southern Illinois W 69 - 63 53% +11  85% 9 - 10 4 - 5 B- +6 B- +5 A- D A- C+ +1 A- C+ C+
 Wed, Jan 28 67 Belmont L 77 - 78 31% -2  31% 9 - 11 4 - 6 C+ +4 B- +4 B+ F A C+ +1 D+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 213 @Indiana St. W 76 - 72 OT 51% -3  13% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C+ +4 C- -1 F+ C+ B B +5 C+ A- D+
 Tue, Feb 3 112 @Bradley L 65 - 72 28% -5  10% 10 - 12 5 - 7 C -1 D+ -2 D A C+ C+ +1 D A B
 Fri, Feb 6 295 Evansville W 70 - 63 OT 85% +1  68% 11 - 12 6 - 7 C- -4 F+ -8 F A+ F+ B +5 C A C
 Mon, Feb 9 193 @Drake W 81 - 76 47% -0  32% 12 - 12 7 - 7 B- +6 B+ +9 B- A+ D+ C- -2 A- F F
 Thu, Feb 12 103 @Illinois St. L 64 - 86 24% -4  33% 12 - 13 7 - 8 D- -14 D -4 F A A F -10 F+ C+ D
 Sun, Feb 15 213 Indiana St. W 76 - 75 73% +3  79% 13 - 13 8 - 8 D+ -5 B+ +9 A A C F -14 D F F
 Wed, Feb 18 112 Bradley W 79 - 72 50% +5  89% 14 - 13 9 - 8 B- +7 B+ +8 B A- A+ C -0 D- B- A+
 Sat, Feb 21 109 @Illinois-Chicago W 71 - 67 27% +6  87% 15 - 13 10 - 8 B +11 B +7 C- C A+ B +4 B- D+ C+
 Wed, Feb 25 193 Drake W 74 - 69 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 295 @Evansville W 72 - 67 68%
Totals 16 - 14 11 - 9 +0 C -1 F C- F+ C+ +1 C D+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- D C C- 32% 48% 37% F+ D C+ C+ C+ B- B D+ B- C+ D+ A C+ C+ 40% 22% 38% C C+ C- B+ B- C C B- C
1.08 57% 34% 34% -2 -2 0.95 32% 1.1 .34 15% .35 70% .25 1.07 61% 30% 33% -1 0 1.00 32% 0.9 .28 17% .31 71% .25
Nov
4		 Eastern Illinois F C- F F F 27% 9% 64% C F C C- C- C- A+ F A+ B- F C+ B+ F 34% 47% 18% A+ D- D- A+ A+ A+ F D- F
0.94 58% 0% 18% -19 +1 0.66 34% 1.1 .36 20% .62 60% .37 0.90 69% 33% 29% 0 -4 0.95 31% 0.3 .09 29% .62 81% .50
Nov
7		 Kentucky F B F F F 17% 24% 59% D F D+ D- D+ A- B- F C- F F B F F 47% 10% 43% F F B A+ A+ F D F F
0.79 60% 14% 24% -15 -2 0.69 24% 0.7 .16 13% .31 65% .20 1.43 81% 33% 44% +17 +2 1.40 33% 0.5 .18 8% .38 85% .32
Nov
12		 Nicholls St. D F D A+ D+ 27% 40% 33% F F+ C- F F+ A+ A- D B+ B- C+ A D+ C 25% 18% 57% B+ C+ C F F A+ C+ A+ B+
1.08 50% 33% 47% +2 -3 1.00 33% 0.8 .27 14% .43 74% .31 1.00 55% 25% 36% -2 -1 0.98 25% 1.6 .41 24% .27 54% .15
Nov
16		 Bryant F+ F D D+ F 40% 20% 40% D F D+ A- C+ B A+ F A A B A+ A+ A+ 34% 19% 47% B A+ F B+ D+ D+ A F B
1.08 39% 33% 33% -9 0 0.84 33% 1.2 .38 11% .45 64% .29 0.79 50% 0% 18% -21 0 0.60 38% 0.8 .31 21% .18 89% .16
Nov
19		 Cleveland St. B A A C B- 35% 29% 36% F+ C+ B C B- B B- D+ C+ C+ F A- A+ B+ 40% 14% 46% D B A+ F B- F D- F+ F
1.30 74% 50% 35% +9 -1 1.18 42% 1.1 .45 13% .33 75% .25 1.08 70% 29% 26% -2 +1 1.00 16% 1.4 .23 13% .38 83% .32
Nov
26		 Southern Indiana F F F+ F F 27% 36% 37% F F C+ F D B+ F F F C+ C+ A+ D+ D 27% 22% 51% B- D+ F+ D D- A- F B+ F
0.80 44% 29% 14% -19 -3 0.59 36% 0.8 .28 13% .16 60% .10 0.91 50% 20% 35% -6 -1 0.89 34% 0.9 .32 21% .45 60% .27
Nov
29		 Western Michigan B+ F A- A+ B 30% 24% 46% F+ C+ A B A+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ C- A+ 42% 27% 31% C A C- F+ D- A+ B- A+ A-
1.29 43% 45% 48% +6 -1 1.13 42% 1.2 .52 15% .47 88% .42 0.85 42% 17% 36% -12 -1 0.78 31% 1.2 .37 25% .24 58% .14
Dec
2		 Marquette D A A D B+ 24% 35% 42% F B- C- C+ C F D- F F+ A+ A+ A C A+ 51% 14% 35% B- A C A+ A A- F F F
0.94 69% 47% 30% +4 -3 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 27% .21 67% .14 0.97 42% 29% 33% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.6 .19 18% .51 84% .43
Dec
13		 UNC Wilmington C+ A F F F+ 28% 34% 38% D- F A+ D+ A A A+ C A+ D+ C C+ A+ A 35% 20% 46% D B+ F A- F C- F A+ F
1.10 71% 24% 21% -9 -2 0.80 43% 1.0 .43 9% .42 75% .31 1.15 56% 33% 24% -9 0 0.85 51% 0.9 .47 14% .61 58% .35
Dec
16		 Northwestern C A- B D B+ 25% 40% 35% F C+ C A+ B F+ A+ C+ A+ D F F A F+ 43% 18% 39% D F+ D- B+ C- D D+ A- C+
1.02 67% 42% 29% +1 -3 0.98 31% 1.2 .38 22% .41 73% .30 1.26 71% 78% 26% +9 +1 1.20 34% 1.2 .41 10% .36 68% .24
Dec
21		 Murray St. C- D+ A C+ B- 36% 40% 24% F C D+ B+ C+ C+ D F+ D- D+ D+ F F F 45% 27% 29% B F B- A+ A+ C- F F+ F
1.10 52% 48% 36% +2 -3 1.02 30% 1.2 .35 15% .25 67% .16 1.19 64% 54% 43% +10 0 1.22 30% 0.4 .12 15% .46 82% .38
Dec
29		 Northern Iowa F+ F+ C+ F F 40% 21% 38% C F A F F A B- A- B B+ C+ A+ C B+ 53% 18% 30% D+ B A- F C B+ F F F
0.83 47% 40% 17% -14 0 0.74 35% 0.3 .09 14% .28 79% .22 1.01 57% 29% 33% -2 +1 1.00 15% 1.5 .23 17% .38 78% .29
Jan
1		 Southern Illinois C- F F+ F F 38% 29% 34% D F C+ F F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ C- A 44% 20% 36% F+ A- A- F C F F A F
0.94 43% 31% 21% -14 -1 0.71 30% 0.6 .17 13% .45 83% .37 1.00 45% 30% 33% -8 0 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 12% .64 60% .38
Jan
4		 Illinois-Chicago C F+ F A+ D+ 39% 34% 26% F+ D D C+ D+ B+ A+ B- A+ A- F+ C- A+ C+ 36% 36% 29% A+ B C+ C+ B- A+ D- A C-
1.06 47% 15% 50% -6 -2 0.87 30% 1.0 .30 18% .78 78% .61 0.95 67% 40% 17% -4 -2 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 26% .37 65% .24
Jan
7		 Illinois St. A- D+ B+ A+ A+ 30% 38% 32% F+ A+ F F F C- A+ B+ A+ C- F+ A+ A- A- 41% 31% 27% B+ A- F A+ D+ D F A+ F+
1.19 55% 43% 75% +21 -3 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 17% .65 74% .48 1.10 71% 19% 29% -3 -1 0.94 41% 0.8 .34 14% .41 61% .25
Jan
10		 Murray St. C- C F A+ C+ 53% 24% 24% B- B- C- C- D+ F A A+ A+ D D C+ F F 42% 15% 44% D+ F C A+ A+ D+ D+ D+ D
1.06 56% 25% 50% +1 +1 1.06 30% 1.0 .30 21% .37 82% .31 1.23 65% 38% 46% +11 +1 1.25 32% 0.6 .19 15% .36 78% .28
Jan
13		 Belmont B A+ C- D C+ 12% 36% 52% F D+ B A+ A+ C+ C F F+ C F B+ F D 47% 17% 36% C+ D+ A A+ A+ F+ A+ F A+
1.14 83% 33% 31% -1 -4 0.92 37% 1.6 .58 17% .28 53% .15 1.20 76% 33% 42% +12 +1 1.28 20% 0.8 .16 14% .11 100% .11
Jan
17		 Northern Iowa D F F F F 21% 42% 37% F F C- A+ B A+ A+ B A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 29% 33% A+ A+ D+ A+ B+ C- A+ A+ A+
0.92 44% 28% 25% -12 -4 0.70 23% 1.3 .29 12% .39 75% .29 0.75 67% 7% 19% -13 -1 0.73 24% 0.7 .17 14% .14 29% .04
Jan
21		 Southern Illinois B- A- F A+ A 31% 31% 38% F+ A- F A+ D A- A+ D+ A+ C+ D- A+ A+ A+ 51% 22% 27% F A- C- B C+ C+ F A F
1.08 67% 25% 47% +6 -2 1.10 15% 1.5 .22 16% .56 67% .37 0.99 67% 11% 18% -8 +1 0.88 31% 0.8 .26 17% .57 60% .34
Jan
28		 Belmont B- A+ F+ A- A- 28% 28% 43% D- B+ C- F F A A C A C+ C- B+ F D 33% 14% 53% B+ D+ C+ F D+ A- F+ B D
1.13 73% 27% 39% +4 -2 1.08 31% 0.6 .19 13% .35 76% .27 1.14 64% 33% 48% +12 0 1.28 27% 1.4 .38 22% .38 65% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Indiana St. C- F A+ F F 51% 29% 20% C F+ B+ D C+ B A+ F+ A+ B F+ A+ A+ C+ 52% 8% 40% D+ C+ B A+ A- D+ F A+ D
1.07 43% 56% 18% -7 0 0.87 39% 0.9 .34 13% .42 65% .27 1.01 70% 25% 24% -1 +3 1.06 22% 0.8 .17 17% .35 57% .20
Feb
3		 Bradley D+ B- C F D+ 33% 37% 31% D D C- A+ A C+ F F F C+ C F C D- 33% 29% 38% B D C A+ A B B- A- B
1.00 63% 39% 27% -2 -2 0.94 29% 1.5 .43 18% .19 40% .08 1.10 59% 53% 35% +5 -1 1.10 27% 0.6 .17 17% .30 69% .20
Feb
6		 Evansville F+ D+ F F F 23% 38% 40% F F A A+ A+ F+ C A- C+ B A- A+ F C 35% 25% 39% D+ C C- A+ A C A A A
1.01 55% 22% 26% -11 -3 0.73 43% 1.6 .69 20% .27 80% .22 0.91 50% 23% 45% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.6 .13 19% .20 64% .12
Feb
9		 Drake B+ F A+ A+ B- 30% 24% 46% C- B- A- A+ A+ D+ A+ D+ A+ C- B- D A+ A 34% 22% 44% C A- F+ F F F A A- A
1.21 43% 55% 43% +5 -1 1.11 38% 1.3 .50 16% .48 67% .32 1.14 55% 46% 23% -6 0 0.88 32% 1.3 .41 9% .23 64% .15
Feb
12		 Illinois St. D D+ F D+ F 26% 51% 23% F F C+ A+ A A F+ B- D F D+ F D D- 44% 10% 46% F F+ C- B C+ D C- F F
0.94 53% 21% 31% -11 -5 0.70 28% 1.4 .40 12% .23 71% .17 1.26 65% 60% 38% +8 +2 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 15% .29 100% .29
Feb
15		 Indiana St. B+ A+ D A+ A+ 27% 36% 36% F A A C+ A C A+ F C+ F F A+ A D 55% 14% 31% C D F F F F C+ C- C
1.24 83% 38% 44% +12 -3 1.20 44% 1.0 .44 15% .40 48% .19 1.23 78% 14% 27% +4 +2 1.14 35% 1.2 .42 13% .24 69% .17
Feb
18		 Bradley B+ C B A+ B+ 43% 32% 25% C+ B C A+ A- A+ A+ F A+ C B A F F 27% 24% 49% B D- C- A B- A+ C- B C
1.19 58% 43% 45% +6 -1 1.11 30% 1.3 .40 12% .57 61% .34 1.08 54% 25% 50% +7 -1 1.14 28% 0.9 .24 23% .33 71% .23
Feb
21		 Illinois-Chicago B B F A- C 28% 34% 38% F C- C+ C- C A+ A+ C+ A+ B C A A- B 46% 24% 30% C- B- C+ D- D+ C+ D+ A+ C+
1.11 62% 19% 39% -3 -2 0.91 37% 0.9 .34 14% .45 76% .34 1.04 57% 27% 29% -5 0 0.91 35% 1.2 .41 19% .34 61% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 21.9 21.9 3rd
4th 2.3 25.7 28.0 4th
5th 17.5 17.5 5th
6th 4.9 22.2 27.1 6th
7th 5.4 5.4 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 10.4 42.0 47.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 47.6% 3.6% 3.6% 13.1 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 45.9
11-9 42.0% 2.8% 2.8% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 40.8
10-10 10.4% 2.1% 2.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.2
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 13.3 96.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 13.1 13.3 66.3 19.9 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.3%
Lose Out 3.3%