Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 #188
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 #196
Pace 66.5 #251
Improvement +4.3 #16

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #251 D C- B- B F
Defense #136 B- C+ C D C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #342 1.06 #294 -6.2 #347
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #29 0.73 #203 +3.4 #43
Three Pointers 39% #215 1.00 #196 -1.0 #220
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #282 -3.9 #285
Freethrows 20.1 #58 72% #190 14.6 #71
Second Chance 31.3% #161 0.93 #306 0.29 #245
Turnovers 15.3% #96
Total Offense -2.6 #251

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #170 1.20 #228 -1.2 #222
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #92 0.62 #26 +0.4 #165
Three Pointers 38% #274 0.95 #113 +3.0 #76
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #106 +2.2 #107
Freethrows 19.4 #290 74% #259 14.5 #57
Second Chance 32.7% #257 0.93 #54 0.30 #145
Turnovers 17.2% #143
Total Defense +0.7 #136

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.7% #348 -0.6% #114
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.0% #236 -3.8% #107
Possession Length 18.2 #270 17.1 #156
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #363 0.15 #95
Improvement +3.0 #27 +1.3 #91

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.3% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.3
.500 or above 15.9% 33.2% 12.9%
.500 or above in Conference 19.2% 38.2% 15.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.8% 3.0% 8.6%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 14.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 33 - 74 - 16
Quad 49 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 309 Eastern Illinois W 66 - 63 82%  +5  1 - 0 -9 -9 F D D- +1 C- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 27 @Kentucky L 59 - 107 4%  -31  1 - 1 -30 -8 F D- A -19 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 215 Nicholls St. W 68 - 63 65%  +3  2 - 1 -1 +0 D- F A+ -1 B- F A+
 Sun, Nov 16 317 Bryant W 68 - 50 84%  +4  3 - 1 +6 -1 F C A- +9 A+ D- C
 Wed, Nov 19 321 @Cleveland St. W 90 - 75 68%  +12  4 - 1 +8 +12 B B- B- -4 C B+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 333 Southern Indiana L 56 - 64 86%  -6  4 - 2 -22 -22 F C B +0 C- F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 265 Western Michigan W 84 - 55 75%  +14  5 - 2 +20 +12 B A+ D- +10 A+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 110 @Marquette L 72 - 75 OT 19%  +2  5 - 3 +4 -2 B- C F +7 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 118 UNC Wilmington L 70 - 73 42%  +2  5 - 4 -3 +4 F A+ A+ -8 B F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 60 @Northwestern L 70 - 86 10%  -12  5 - 5 -4 +3 B- B F -7 D- C D-
 Sun, Dec 21 91 Murray St. L 79 - 85 31%  +2  5 - 6 0 - 1 -3 +3 B C+ C -6 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 96 @Northern Iowa L 48 - 58 16%  -3  5 - 7 0 - 2 -2 -6 F F A+ +2 B D+ B
 Thu, Jan 1 130 @Southern Illinois L 70 - 75 26%  -5  5 - 8 0 - 3 -0 -3 F F A+ +3 A+ A- F
 Sun, Jan 4 184 Illinois-Chicago W 66 - 59 61%  -1  6 - 8 1 - 3 +2 +0 F D B+ +3 C B- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 85 Illinois St. W 77 - 71 29%  +5  7 - 8 2 - 3 +10 +12 A+ F C -2 A+ C D
 Sat, Jan 10 91 @Murray St. L 72 - 83 15% 
 Tue, Jan 13 73 @Belmont L 68 - 81 11% 
 Sat, Jan 17 96 Northern Iowa L 60 - 64 34% 
 Wed, Jan 21 130 Southern Illinois L 70 - 71 46% 
 Wed, Jan 28 73 Belmont L 71 - 78 25% 
 Sat, Jan 31 191 @Indiana St. L 70 - 73 39% 
 Tue, Feb 3 116 @Bradley L 66 - 75 21% 
 Fri, Feb 6 263 Evansville W 71 - 64 73% 
 Mon, Feb 9 169 @Drake L 67 - 71 36% 
 Thu, Feb 12 85 @Illinois St. L 64 - 76 14% 
 Sun, Feb 15 191 Indiana St. W 73 - 70 61% 
 Wed, Feb 18 116 Bradley L 69 - 72 40% 
 Sat, Feb 21 184 @Illinois-Chicago L 68 - 71 38% 
 Wed, Feb 25 169 Drake W 70 - 68 56% 
 Sat, Feb 28 263 @Evansville W 68 - 67 53% 
Totals 13 - 17 8 - 12 -2 -3 D C- B- +1 B- C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 2.7 2.7 0.7 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.0 5.1 1.3 0.1 13.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.7 7.7 6.7 1.7 0.1 19.2 7th
8th 0.4 3.1 9.0 7.1 1.6 0.1 21.2 8th
9th 0.3 3.2 7.5 5.6 1.4 0.1 18.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.6 3.4 0.8 0.0 13.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.5 11th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.9 9.8 14.4 18.2 18.0 14.1 9.8 5.4 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 22.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.3% 3.0% 3.0% 13.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 1.1% 7.4% 7.4% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
12-8 2.5% 4.0% 4.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
11-9 5.4% 2.5% 2.5% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.2
10-10 9.8% 2.2% 2.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.6
9-11 14.1% 1.0% 1.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.0
8-12 18.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.6 0.0 0.1 17.9
7-13 18.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.1
6-14 14.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.4
5-15 9.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.8
4-16 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 14.3 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%