Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#224
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#215
Pace71.3#109
Improvement+2.8#44

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#180
First Shot-4.2#299
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#18
Layup/Dunks-2.3#265
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#214
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#288
Freethrows+2.4#58
Improvement+0.5#139

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#271
First Shot-1.6#228
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#297
Layups/Dunks-4.6#331
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#41
Freethrows-0.4#223
Improvement+2.3#28
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.4% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.8 14.4
.500 or above 17.8% 37.7% 15.8%
.500 or above in Conference 16.8% 36.4% 14.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 17.3% 7.2% 18.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.7% 1.3% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 9.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 51 - 8
Quad 33 - 74 - 15
Quad 48 - 312 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 72   Liberty L 63-83 15%     0 - 1 -12.3 -2.2 -10.8
  Nov 12, 2024 218   Cleveland St. L 67-75 60%     0 - 2 -14.0 -5.7 -8.5
  Nov 21, 2024 347   Lindenwood W 77-64 86%     1 - 2 -1.9 -4.4 +2.0
  Nov 24, 2024 326   Eastern Illinois W 81-53 80%     2 - 2 +15.6 +14.4 +5.0
  Nov 27, 2024 349   Northern Illinois W 87-82 86%     3 - 2 -10.0 +3.0 -13.3
  Nov 29, 2024 104   @ DePaul L 70-89 15%     3 - 3 -11.4 +2.3 -14.2
  Dec 05, 2024 80   Drake L 60-66 23%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -1.7 -1.2 -1.4
  Dec 14, 2024 237   Central Michigan W 93-77 64%     4 - 4 +8.7 +8.1 -1.2
  Dec 17, 2024 29   @ Ohio St. L 73-95 4%     4 - 5 -5.7 +2.6 -6.9
  Dec 20, 2024 293   @ Western Michigan W 76-73 52%     5 - 5 -1.1 +0.5 -1.6
  Dec 29, 2024 78   @ Bradley L 68-82 10%    
  Jan 01, 2025 171   @ Missouri St. L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 04, 2025 98   Northern Iowa L 71-76 30%    
  Jan 08, 2025 150   Indiana St. L 82-83 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 138   @ Murray St. L 68-76 23%    
  Jan 14, 2025 130   @ Belmont L 78-86 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 192   Illinois-Chicago W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 22, 2025 80   @ Drake L 61-75 10%    
  Jan 25, 2025 315   Evansville W 78-70 78%    
  Jan 28, 2025 196   Southern Illinois W 76-75 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 141   @ Illinois St. L 70-77 25%    
  Feb 05, 2025 150   @ Indiana St. L 79-86 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 138   Murray St. L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 12, 2025 130   Belmont L 81-83 42%    
  Feb 16, 2025 315   @ Evansville W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 19, 2025 171   Missouri St. W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 196   @ Southern Illinois L 73-78 34%    
  Feb 26, 2025 78   Bradley L 71-79 24%    
  Mar 02, 2025 192   @ Illinois-Chicago L 74-79 33%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.1 1.0 0.1 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.3 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.6 4.1 0.7 0.0 14.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.9 7.1 4.8 1.0 0.0 17.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.4 7.1 4.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 20.1 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.2 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.7 12th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.5 9.1 12.5 14.2 14.9 13.0 10.3 7.4 4.5 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 65.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 33.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 15.6% 15.6% 12.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.2% 6.2% 6.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.5% 10.3% 10.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 1.3% 7.2% 7.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
12-8 2.9% 3.6% 3.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.8
11-9 4.5% 2.4% 2.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.4
10-10 7.4% 1.2% 1.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3
9-11 10.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.3
8-12 13.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.0
7-13 14.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.8
6-14 14.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.2
5-15 12.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.5
4-16 9.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.1
3-17 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.5
2-18 2.6% 2.6
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%