Wyoming
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#159
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#167
Pace65.6#261
Improvement+1.3#102

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#172
First Shot+1.0#147
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#257
Layup/Dunks+0.1#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#221
Freethrows+0.4#151
Improvement+1.4#86

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#161
First Shot-0.4#185
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#141
Layups/Dunks+0.7#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#56
Freethrows-1.6#295
Improvement-0.1#180
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.5 13.3
.500 or above 23.4% 39.3% 17.3%
.500 or above in Conference 15.5% 28.6% 10.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.2% 3.0% 10.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Home) - 27.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 22 - 62 - 12
Quad 33 - 55 - 16
Quad 49 - 214 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 317   Tennessee St. W 81-66 86%     1 - 0 +3.1 +1.8 +1.2
  Nov 13, 2024 18   @ Texas Tech L 49-96 6%     1 - 1 -29.1 -15.9 -13.7
  Nov 16, 2024 287   Utah Tech W 86-69 82%     2 - 1 +7.3 +4.6 +2.1
  Nov 22, 2024 225   SE Louisiana W 64-61 73%     3 - 1 -3.5 -8.1 +4.6
  Nov 26, 2024 202   Tulane W 64-63 57%     4 - 1 -0.9 -6.5 +5.7
  Nov 27, 2024 157   Loyola Marymount L 70-73 50%     4 - 2 -3.0 +2.1 -5.2
  Dec 04, 2024 47   @ Utah St. L 67-70 10%     4 - 3 0 - 1 +10.8 +11.5 -1.2
  Dec 10, 2024 236   @ South Dakota L 81-82 55%     4 - 4 -2.2 -4.1 +2.0
  Dec 14, 2024 42   BYU L 49-68 14%     4 - 5 -7.6 -11.9 +1.3
  Dec 19, 2024 345   Bellarmine W 92-55 91%     5 - 5 +22.2 +18.8 +7.4
  Dec 22, 2024 278   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 73-69 63%     6 - 5 +0.6 +12.2 -10.8
  Dec 28, 2024 60   Nevada L 65-71 28%    
  Dec 31, 2024 58   Boise St. L 67-73 28%    
  Jan 04, 2025 269   @ Air Force W 67-64 60%    
  Jan 07, 2025 64   New Mexico L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 14, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 64-76 13%    
  Jan 18, 2025 97   Colorado St. L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 21, 2025 106   @ UNLV L 65-72 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 162   @ San Jose St. L 68-71 39%    
  Jan 28, 2025 273   Fresno St. W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 01, 2025 38   @ San Diego St. L 59-74 9%    
  Feb 04, 2025 47   Utah St. L 69-77 24%    
  Feb 08, 2025 106   UNLV L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 12, 2025 64   @ New Mexico L 71-82 15%    
  Feb 15, 2025 97   @ Colorado St. L 65-73 23%    
  Feb 18, 2025 269   Air Force W 70-61 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 162   San Jose St. W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 25, 2025 60   @ Nevada L 62-74 13%    
  Mar 01, 2025 38   San Diego St. L 62-71 22%    
  Mar 04, 2025 273   @ Fresno St. W 74-71 61%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 4.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.3 1.4 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.2 5.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 15.7 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 6.1 9.3 7.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 27.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.6 7.7 7.8 4.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 25.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.3 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.2 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.6 8.7 12.5 15.2 15.9 14.2 10.9 7.3 4.3 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 91.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 42.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.2% 6.4% 6.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.4% 5.1% 5.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.0% 4.2% 4.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-8 2.2% 3.3% 3.3% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2
11-9 4.3% 1.8% 1.8% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.2
10-10 7.3% 1.0% 1.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2
9-11 10.9% 0.6% 0.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9
8-12 14.2% 0.5% 0.5% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1
7-13 15.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 15.8
6-14 15.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 15.1
5-15 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.5
4-16 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.7
3-17 4.6% 4.6
2-18 1.9% 1.9
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%