Xavier
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.3 #97
Expected Predictive Rating +6.7 #81
Pace 72.7 #85
Improvement -2.1 #291

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #114 C+ D A+ F D
Defense #86 C A- B- B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #340 1.24 #86 -3.3 #292
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #121 0.76 #172 +1.2 #113
Three Pointers 46% #88 1.07 #108 +3.9 #61
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #130 +1.8 #130
Freethrows 13.9 #331 71% #220 9.9 #325
Second Chance 28.2% #251 0.92 #315 0.26 #294
Turnovers 11.8% #1
Total Offense +2.2 #114

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #123 1.18 #204 -1.7 #241
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #53 0.75 #176 -1.9 #307
Three Pointers 34% #342 1.02 #197 +3.4 #65
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #180 -0.1 #181
Freethrows 16.1 #123 70% #100 11.3 #264
Second Chance 26.5% #52 0.91 #39 0.24 #30
Turnovers 18.2% #93
Total Defense +3.1 #86

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #296 -0.9% #92
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.5% #99 1.2% #206
Possession Length 15.6 #41 17.5 #229
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #35 0.14 #76
Improvement -0.1 #192 -2.0 #300

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.0% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.7% 0.6%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 11.0
.500 or above 22.8% 33.4% 13.0%
.500 or above in Conference 4.6% 7.7% 1.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.6% 17.0% 35.4%
First Four0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
First Round0.9% 1.4% 0.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Providence (Home) - 47.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 10
Quad 24 - 65 - 16
Quad 34 - 29 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 140 Marist W 66 - 62 75%  -3  1 - 0 +2 -0 A+ D+ A+ +3 C- F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 291 Le Moyne W 74 - 69 92%  +4  2 - 0 -5 -4 B F D+ -1 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 61 Santa Clara L 68 - 87 47%  -15  2 - 1 -13 -5 F C+ B+ -8 C- D C
 Fri, Nov 14 20 @Iowa L 62 - 81 10%  -10  2 - 2 +0 -2 D- D A+ +2 D A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 250 Old Dominion W 99 - 69 89%  +20  3 - 2 +22 +16 A- A+ B+ +4 B B- B
 Fri, Nov 21 24 Georgia L 77 - 78 17%  -4  3 - 3 +15 +8 C C A+ +7 A A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 23 67 West Virginia W 78 - 68 37%  +3  4 - 3 +19 +13 A+ F A +6 A A- C+
 Fri, Nov 28 183 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 88 - 67 82%  +12  5 - 3 +16 +10 B D- A+ +5 B A+ F
 Mon, Dec 1 361 St. Francis (PA) W 96 - 74 98%  +13  6 - 3 +3 +5 D- D A+ -4 D C+ C
 Fri, Dec 5 58 Cincinnati W 79 - 74 46%  +4  7 - 3 +11 +11 A- F A+ +0 A+ F F
 Fri, Dec 12 192 Missouri St. W 75 - 57 84%  +7  8 - 3 +13 +8 B D- A+ +7 B+ A+ A
 Wed, Dec 17 37 Creighton L 57 - 98 31%  -21  8 - 4 0 - 1 -31 -14 D+ F F -14 F A+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 103 @Georgetown W 80 - 77 40%  -2  9 - 4 1 - 1 +11 +6 B F D +5 C A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 5 Connecticut L 67 - 90 11%  -18  9 - 5 1 - 2 -4 +2 B+ F A- -5 D B B+
 Sat, Jan 3 102 @DePaul L 77 - 86 40%  -3  9 - 6 1 - 3 -1 +13 A+ D+ A+ -14 F C- D
 Wed, Jan 7 110 @Marquette L 65 - 66 42%  -5  9 - 7 1 - 4 +6 -3 C F D- +9 A- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 66 Providence L 83 - 84 48% 
 Wed, Jan 14 57 Butler L 78 - 79 46% 
 Wed, Jan 21 37 @Creighton L 70 - 81 15% 
 Sat, Jan 24 21 St. John's L 74 - 82 23% 
 Wed, Jan 28 53 @Seton Hall L 65 - 73 24% 
 Sat, Jan 31 102 DePaul W 73 - 70 62% 
 Tue, Feb 3 5 @Connecticut L 63 - 82 4% 
 Mon, Feb 9 21 @St. John's L 71 - 85 10% 
 Sat, Feb 14 110 Marquette W 78 - 74 65% 
 Tue, Feb 17 31 Villanova L 68 - 74 29% 
 Sat, Feb 21 57 @Butler L 75 - 82 26% 
 Tue, Feb 24 66 @Providence L 80 - 87 27% 
 Sat, Feb 28 103 Georgetown W 78 - 75 62% 
 Tue, Mar 3 53 Seton Hall L 68 - 70 43% 
 Sat, Mar 7 31 @Villanova L 65 - 77 14% 
Totals 14 - 17 6 - 14 +5 +2 C+ D A+ +3 C A- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.3 5.3 1.6 0.1 12.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 6.4 8.3 2.9 0.2 19.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 7.4 9.1 3.3 0.3 0.0 22.0 9th
10th 0.2 2.0 6.8 7.8 3.1 0.3 0.0 20.1 10th
11th 0.4 2.4 5.3 5.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 15.2 11th
Total 0.4 2.6 7.3 13.6 18.1 19.5 16.6 11.0 6.2 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 51.6% 4.8% 46.8% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 49.2%
11-9 1.2% 32.1% 0.4% 31.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.8 31.9%
10-10 2.9% 15.4% 1.9% 13.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.5 13.8%
9-11 6.2% 2.5% 0.7% 1.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.1 1.8%
8-12 11.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 11.0 0.0%
7-13 16.6% 0.2% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 16.5
6-14 19.5% 0.1% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 19.5
5-15 18.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 18.1
4-16 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 13.6
3-17 7.3% 7.3
2-18 2.6% 2.6
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20
Total 100% 1.4% 0.2% 1.1% 10.6 98.6 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%