Xavier
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.6#44
Expected Predictive Rating+10.6#55
Pace70.9#108
Improvement+2.7#69

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#52
First Shot+6.3#38
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#233
Layup/Dunks+2.9#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#277
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#102
Freethrows+2.9#35
Improvement+0.9#139

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#43
First Shot+4.9#45
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#96
Layups/Dunks+0.2#161
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#94
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#47
Freethrows+0.2#168
Improvement+1.8#89
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.6% 42.1% 27.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.1% 38.5% 24.3%
Average Seed 10.0 9.9 10.3
.500 or above 98.4% 99.4% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 80.8% 87.2% 61.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four15.7% 16.6% 12.7%
First Round31.5% 34.4% 22.3%
Second Round13.5% 15.1% 8.4%
Sweet Sixteen3.9% 4.3% 2.6%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.3% 0.7%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Home) - 75.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 9
Quad 25 - 38 - 12
Quad 35 - 113 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 274   Texas Southern W 78-69 96%     1 - 0 +0.2 +0.6 -0.8
  Nov 08, 2024 330   IU Indianapolis W 94-80 98%     2 - 0 +0.9 +14.0 -12.6
  Nov 12, 2024 284   Jackson St. W 94-57 96%     3 - 0 +27.8 +15.0 +11.3
  Nov 16, 2024 58   Wake Forest W 75-60 67%     4 - 0 +22.2 +12.8 +10.2
  Nov 20, 2024 246   Siena W 80-55 95%     5 - 0 +17.4 +8.1 +10.6
  Nov 25, 2024 79   South Carolina W 75-66 66%     6 - 0 +16.3 +6.3 +9.9
  Nov 27, 2024 18   Michigan L 53-78 33%     6 - 1 -8.9 -13.1 +4.6
  Dec 01, 2024 229   South Carolina St. W 71-68 94%     7 - 1 -3.2 -5.1 +1.8
  Dec 05, 2024 68   @ TCU L 72-76 55%     7 - 2 +6.4 +10.4 -4.2
  Dec 10, 2024 329   Morgan St. W 119-58 98%     8 - 2 +48.0 +31.3 +13.5
  Dec 14, 2024 59   @ Cincinnati L 65-68 48%     8 - 3 +9.2 +2.1 +7.1
  Dec 18, 2024 24   @ Connecticut L 89-94 OT 29%     8 - 4 0 - 1 +12.4 +19.0 -6.5
  Dec 21, 2024 21   Marquette L 70-72 44%     8 - 5 0 - 2 +11.3 +4.7 +6.6
  Dec 31, 2024 147   Seton Hall W 94-72 89%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +20.5 +22.9 -2.3
  Jan 03, 2025 85   @ Georgetown L 63-69 58%     9 - 6 1 - 3 +3.5 -2.3 +5.8
  Jan 07, 2025 14   St. John's L 72-82 38%     9 - 7 1 - 4 +4.6 +4.7 +0.7
  Jan 11, 2025 112   @ DePaul W 77-63 71%     10 - 7 2 - 4 +19.7 +8.6 +11.6
  Jan 14, 2025 46   Villanova W 69-63 62%     11 - 7 3 - 4 +14.4 +3.3 +11.7
  Jan 18, 2025 21   @ Marquette W 59-57 26%     12 - 7 4 - 4 +20.2 -1.8 +22.1
  Jan 22, 2025 14   @ St. John's L 71-79 OT 22%     12 - 8 4 - 5 +11.6 +7.4 +4.7
  Jan 25, 2025 24   Connecticut W 76-72 47%     13 - 8 5 - 5 +16.5 +9.1 +7.6
  Jan 29, 2025 28   @ Creighton L 77-86 31%     13 - 9 5 - 6 +7.8 +15.4 -7.8
  Feb 04, 2025 85   Georgetown W 74-67 76%    
  Feb 09, 2025 46   @ Villanova L 71-73 41%    
  Feb 12, 2025 66   @ Providence W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 112   DePaul W 80-69 85%    
  Feb 18, 2025 75   Butler W 78-71 75%    
  Feb 23, 2025 147   @ Seton Hall W 72-64 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 28   Creighton L 73-74 51%    
  Mar 05, 2025 75   @ Butler W 76-74 54%    
  Mar 08, 2025 66   Providence W 75-69 73%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 1.3 2.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.8 5.7 0.9 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 9.1 19.5 15.7 3.3 0.1 48.9 5th
6th 0.5 5.6 9.9 4.8 0.6 0.0 21.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 4.9 1.7 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.5 4.8 12.6 20.8 25.6 21.3 10.5 2.6 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 2.6% 91.5% 15.1% 76.4% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 90.0%
13-7 10.5% 75.7% 9.0% 66.7% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 2.1 2.5 1.5 0.0 2.6 73.3%
12-8 21.3% 58.3% 7.1% 51.1% 10.1 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.7 4.8 0.1 8.9 55.1%
11-9 25.6% 40.4% 5.7% 34.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.3 5.5 0.2 15.3 36.8%
10-10 20.8% 21.6% 3.8% 17.8% 10.7 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 0.3 16.3 18.6%
9-11 12.6% 7.2% 2.4% 4.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 11.7 4.9%
8-12 4.8% 2.1% 1.3% 0.8% 11.3 0.1 0.0 4.7 0.8%
7-13 1.5% 2.6% 2.6% 12.0 0.0 1.5
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 38.6% 5.5% 33.1% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.5 6.1 12.0 15.4 0.8 61.4 35.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 4.3 2.6 25.6 30.8 28.2 7.7 2.6 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 97.7% 7.4 4.5 22.7 27.3 20.5 18.2 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 84.5% 8.5 20.2 25.0 23.8 11.9 3.6