Xavier
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.9 84
Results Rating +7.3 82
Pace 74.4 40
Improvement +1.1 145

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 75 B- D+ A D D
Defense B- 104 C A- C B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 349 B 63% 67 -3.2 289
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 189 B- 41% 89 +1.9 78
Three Pointers 46% 83 B 37% 62 +4.3 48
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.0 310 B +4.1 57
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 86
Second Chance D+ 27.4% 265 C 1.01 195 D+ 0.28 256
Turnovers A 12.2% 4
Freethrows D- 0.25 335 C+ 73% 168 D 0.19 315
Total Offense B- +4.4 75

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A 65% 9 C- 12.2% 262
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 37% 38 C 5.6% 225
Three Pointers B+ 92% 22 C- 1.2% 273
Total A 69% 8 C 5.6% 191

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 122 C 59% 192 +1.6 232
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 44 C 38% 188 +1.9 321
Three Pointers 33% 352 C 34% 178 -3.9 36
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.4 96 C +0.1 185
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 167
Second Chance B 26.3% 44 A- 0.87 13 A- 0.23 20
Turnovers C 17.2% 149
Freethrows B- 0.28 107 B 70% 49 B- 0.20 79
Total Defense B- +2.5 104

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 59% 346 B- 13.8% 75
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 40% 347 C+ 5.7% 114
Three Pointers D 89% 311 D+ 0.4% 290
Total D 62% 321 B 7.2% 62

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.3 26 18.0 282
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 29 0.15 102
Improvement +3.1 #51 -2.0 #287

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 98 83 66
Results Rating Rank 114 81 64
Conference Record 5 - 15 7 - 13 8 - 12
Conference Finish 11 8 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.5 11.9 13.0
.500 or above 19% 43% 7%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 25% 6% 33%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Providence (Away) - 31.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b0 - 50 - 10
Quad 25 - 65 - 16
Quad 34 - 110 - 17
Quad 46 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 181 Marist W 66 - 62 85% +4  55% 1 - 0 C -0 D -4 F C- B B +4 F A- A+
 Thu, Nov 6 300 Le Moyne W 74 - 69 94% +4  74% 2 - 0 D+ -6 D -5 B F D+ C -1 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 42 Santa Clara L 68 - 87 39% -15  0% 2 - 1 D -9 D -6 F B B+ C- -3 C+ F+ C
 Fri, Nov 14 26 @Iowa L 62 - 81 14% -10  9% 2 - 2 C -0 D -5 D- C- A B +5 D A+ A
 Tue, Nov 18 242 Old Dominion W 99 - 69 90% +20  92% 3 - 2 A +23 A+ +14 B+ A+ B+ B+ +6 B B- B
 Fri, Nov 21 32 Georgia L 77 - 78 23% -4  23% 3 - 3 B+ +14 C+ +3 C- C+ A+ A +11 A B+ C+
 Sun, Nov 23 55 West Virginia W 78 - 68 38% +3  67% 4 - 3 A +20 A +14 A+ D- A B+ +7 A- A- C
 Fri, Nov 28 205 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 88 - 67 87% +12  84% 5 - 3 A- +16 B+ +8 B- D- A+ B+ +7 B+ A F
 Mon, Dec 1 355 St. Francis (PA) W 96 - 74 98% +13  94% 6 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +2 D D A+ C +0 C- C+ C+
 Fri, Dec 5 43 Cincinnati W 79 - 74 40% +4  75% 7 - 3 B+ +14 B+ +9 A- F A+ B+ +5 A+ D F+
 Fri, Dec 12 204 Missouri St. W 75 - 57 87% +7  69% 8 - 3 B+ +13 B- +5 B- D A+ A +10 B+ A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 17 63 Creighton L 57 - 98 55% -21  5% 8 - 4 0 - 1 F -35 F -20 D- F F+ F -13 F A- B-
 Sat, Dec 20 71 @Georgetown W 80 - 77 35% -2  20% 9 - 4 1 - 1 B+ +14 B- +5 B+ D+ D A +9 B- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 9 Connecticut L 67 - 90 17% -18  0% 9 - 5 1 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -3 B- F A C- -3 D- B+ B+
 Sat, Jan 3 93 @DePaul L 77 - 86 42% -3  5% 9 - 6 1 - 3 C -0 A- +10 B+ C A+ F -10 D- C+ D
 Wed, Jan 7 88 @Marquette L 65 - 66 40% -5  3% 9 - 7 1 - 4 B +8 D -6 C F D A+ +14 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 61 Providence W 97 - 84 54% +11  97% 10 - 7 2 - 4 A +19 B+ +8 A- D A+ A +9 A A+ F+
 Wed, Jan 14 75 Butler W 89 - 75 59% +11  99% 11 - 7 3 - 4 A +19 A- +10 B- A A A- +8 A D+ A-
 Wed, Jan 21 63 @Creighton L 93 - 94 32% -1  21% 11 - 8 3 - 5 B +11 A+ +18 A+ C B+ D- -8 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 19 St. John's L 83 - 88 22% +3  59% 11 - 9 3 - 6 B +10 A- +9 A+ F A+ C+ +1 C+ B C-
 Wed, Jan 28 54 @Seton Hall L 68 - 86 28% +2  57% 11 - 10 3 - 7 D+ -5 C+ +2 B+ B D- D- -7 C C+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 93 DePaul W 68 - 66 65% -7  2% 12 - 10 4 - 7 B- +5 C+ +3 A- F A B- +2 D+ B+ C+
 Tue, Feb 3 9 @Connecticut L 60 - 92 8% -23  0% 12 - 11 4 - 8 D -9 D+ -3 C+ D C+ D- -7 F A+ B+
 Mon, Feb 9 19 @St. John's L 82 - 87 OT 10% -0  32% 12 - 12 4 - 9 A- +16 B +6 C+ C+ A+ A+ +11 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 14 88 Marquette W 96 - 88 63% +11  97% 13 - 12 5 - 9 B+ +11 A+ +20 A B A+ F+ -8 D+ D- D+
 Tue, Feb 17 35 Villanova L 89 - 92 OT 33% -2  20% 13 - 13 5 - 10 B +8 B+ +9 A A C+ C+ +0 B+ A F
 Sat, Feb 21 75 @Butler L 75 - 80 36% -10  0% 13 - 14 5 - 11 B- +6 B- +5 B- D A+ C+ +0 B+ A+ F
 Tue, Feb 24 61 @Providence L 85 - 90 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 71 Georgetown W 79 - 77 57%
 Tue, Mar 3 54 Seton Hall L 70 - 71 50%
 Sat, Mar 7 35 @Villanova L 70 - 81 16%
Totals 15 - 16 7 - 13 +7 B- +4 A+ B D B- +3 B C+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B B- B B 30% 37% 46% D B- D+ C D+ A D- C+ D B- C C C C 41% 26% 33% B- C B A- A- C B- B B-
1.15 63% 41% 37% +4 -1 1.08 27% 1.0 .28 12% .25 73% .19 1.05 59% 38% 34% 0 0 1.01 26% 0.9 .23 17% .28 70% .18
Nov
3		 Marist D A F F F 16% 29% 56% F F C+ D+ C- B A+ B- A+ B F F+ B- F 31% 44% 26% A+ F B- A+ A- A+ F A+ F
0.98 71% 23% 24% -11 -3 0.76 31% 0.9 .28 16% .57 72% .41 0.92 75% 47% 30% +8 -4 1.10 24% 0.8 .20 27% .50 68% .34
Nov
6		 Le Moyne D D- F A+ A- 31% 25% 44% D- B D F F D+ D+ D- D- C F D F F 45% 14% 41% D F B+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+
1.08 50% 23% 52% +6 -1 1.12 26% 0.6 .16 16% .28 69% .19 1.01 73% 43% 40% +11 +1 1.27 19% 0.0 .00 26% .24 58% .14
Nov
10		 Santa Clara D C+ F F F 39% 35% 26% F F C A B B+ A+ C+ A+ C- C F+ B+ C 52% 30% 18% B C+ C F F+ C D B- D+
0.95 61% 13% 8% -18 -2 0.63 30% 1.2 .37 18% .58 74% .43 1.21 62% 53% 30% +6 0 1.13 38% 1.3 .50 15% .28 71% .20
Nov
14		 Iowa D C+ A+ F F+ 28% 11% 60% B- D- F+ A+ C- A F+ F F B F A B- D- 54% 26% 20% C+ D B- A+ A+ A F B- F
0.88 60% 50% 22% -9 0 0.85 18% 1.3 .23 17% .24 57% .14 1.15 84% 33% 33% +13 0 1.28 32% 0.5 .16 20% .48 74% .36
Nov
18		 Old Dominion A+ C+ C+ A- B+ 29% 15% 56% C B+ A+ A A+ B+ C+ D+ C B+ D- B+ A+ B 37% 31% 31% C+ B C+ B B- B C- A- C+
1.33 63% 38% 39% +5 0 1.13 50% 1.2 .61 12% .37 71% .26 0.93 65% 29% 24% -5 -1 0.89 24% 1.0 .24 19% .30 67% .20
Nov
21		 Georgia C+ D+ C D+ C 25% 29% 45% F+ C- C B+ C+ A+ B D- C+ A F A- A A- 28% 26% 46% A+ A A+ D- B+ C+ B- B- B
1.06 50% 38% 32% -4 -2 0.91 31% 1.0 .31 11% .29 63% .19 1.07 75% 33% 27% -1 -1 0.96 27% 1.2 .32 15% .29 72% .21
Nov
23		 West Virginia A D+ F A+ A+ 20% 33% 47% F A+ F A+ D- A D A+ B- B+ D B A- B 27% 33% 40% A+ A- A+ F+ A- C B+ F C+
1.15 50% 18% 63% +12 -3 1.20 13% 1.3 .17 15% .21 100% .21 1.00 64% 35% 29% -3 -2 0.92 21% 1.3 .26 16% .26 80% .21
Nov
28		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B+ D+ F A+ B 36% 20% 44% D+ B- D+ F D- A+ F+ F F B+ B B- A+ B+ 48% 30% 22% B B+ B- A+ A F B- A+ A-
1.17 55% 25% 44% +3 0 1.08 25% 0.8 .20 7% .34 58% .20 0.89 48% 33% 23% -10 0 0.82 26% 0.6 .16 13% .31 55% .17
Dec
1		 St. Francis (PA) C+ B A+ F D- 43% 12% 46% B- D C F+ D A+ F D- F C C B+ D+ C- 37% 25% 39% C C- A+ F C+ C+ C+ F C-
1.24 69% 50% 29% +3 +1 1.10 33% 1.0 .33 10% .22 67% .14 0.95 57% 29% 36% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.3 .23 19% .24 80% .19
Dec
5		 Cincinnati B+ A A+ F A 28% 30% 43% D A- F F F A+ A- F C+ B+ A+ A- A A+ 32% 23% 46% B- A+ C+ F D F+ D- A+ B-
1.07 65% 67% 23% +3 -2 1.05 12% 0.8 .10 5% .33 57% .19 1.00 44% 31% 27% -11 -1 0.79 32% 1.2 .38 12% .34 50% .17
Dec
12		 Missouri St. B- D- F A+ C+ 30% 21% 49% B+ B- C+ F D A+ F F F A C A+ A A 52% 24% 24% F B+ B- A+ A+ B+ B+ F C-
1.18 56% 27% 46% +6 -1 1.13 33% 0.8 .26 9% .21 58% .12 0.90 63% 9% 27% -7 +1 0.89 29% 0.6 .18 21% .30 80% .24
Dec
17		 Creighton F D B- F D 24% 34% 41% F+ D- F+ F F F+ F F F F F F F F 37% 12% 52% D F B A A- B- A+ A+ A+
0.77 50% 40% 25% -7 -3 0.83 20% 0.7 .13 19% .10 50% .05 1.33 77% 57% 48% +20 +1 1.45 24% 0.8 .20 16% .16 60% .10
Dec
20		 Georgetown B- C A+ C A- 31% 34% 36% D- B+ A- F D+ D D- A- D+ A A+ F F B- 48% 29% 23% C B- A- A+ A+ C F A+ F
1.07 56% 55% 33% +5 -2 1.07 37% 0.6 .24 19% .23 79% .18 1.03 39% 50% 45% -2 0 0.98 28% 0.7 .19 13% .67 58% .39
Dec
31		 Connecticut D+ A+ F F B 38% 28% 34% D+ B- F D F A B- D C C- B- C F F+ 36% 16% 47% B- D- B+ C+ B+ B+ A- F B
0.92 70% 27% 22% -5 -1 0.91 14% 0.8 .11 15% .36 68% .24 1.24 60% 44% 50% +13 0 1.29 32% 1.1 .35 19% .24 79% .19
Jan
3		 DePaul A- C- A+ B B+ 31% 22% 47% C B+ B+ F C A+ F C+ F+ F C F C- F+ 32% 19% 49% C+ D- C+ C+ C+ D F F F
1.12 53% 50% 38% +4 -1 1.09 36% 0.7 .26 12% .23 71% .16 1.25 60% 67% 35% +7 0 1.15 30% 1.1 .33 15% .53 81% .43
Jan
7		 Marquette D F D+ A+ C+ 28% 30% 42% F C D F F D C- D+ C- A+ B+ B A+ A+ 54% 12% 35% C A+ F B D- A+ C- A+ B+
0.92 43% 33% 43% 0 -2 0.98 26% 0.6 .16 23% .26 71% .18 0.93 50% 33% 22% -11 +2 0.85 44% 0.9 .40 21% .32 50% .16
Jan
10		 Providence B+ C+ B A A- 38% 20% 42% B- A- F A+ D A+ F B- F+ A F+ D+ A+ A- 33% 22% 44% A- A A+ D+ A+ F+ B+ A+ A
1.21 58% 43% 41% +5 0 1.13 15% 1.3 .21 5% .20 73% .14 1.05 71% 43% 25% 0 -1 1.00 20% 1.3 .25 11% .30 67% .20
Jan
14		 Butler A- A+ D- D B- 41% 21% 38% C+ B- A B- A A D+ A+ C A- A- F A+ A+ 39% 16% 45% B- A A+ F D+ A- B+ F C+
1.22 72% 31% 30% +2 0 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 12% .19 83% .16 1.03 50% 50% 26% -7 +1 0.90 26% 1.7 .43 18% .32 79% .25
Jan
21		 Creighton A+ A+ A A+ A+ 31% 32% 37% D A+ D- A+ C B+ F A+ D D- D+ A+ F F 43% 14% 43% D- F A A+ A+ D F B F
1.28 83% 47% 45% +17 -2 1.32 21% 1.3 .28 12% .13 88% .11 1.29 67% 25% 54% +15 +1 1.34 20% 0.7 .13 12% .38 71% .27
Jan
24		 St. John's A- C B+ A+ A+ 38% 29% 34% D A+ F D- F A+ C+ A+ B+ C+ B D- D C- 40% 32% 28% A+ C+ B+ C- B C- B+ A A
1.09 52% 44% 47% +6 -1 1.13 16% 0.8 .13 16% .29 84% .25 1.15 52% 44% 38% +1 -1 1.02 33% 1.2 .40 13% .35 65% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Seton Hall C+ A+ A D- A- 25% 21% 54% D B+ D+ A+ B D- F A+ F D- A+ F F C+ 64% 18% 18% F C F A+ C+ D F D F
0.94 69% 45% 29% 0 -1 1.00 26% 1.3 .32 26% .19 80% .15 1.19 43% 60% 40% -4 +2 0.98 49% 0.7 .35 14% .45 75% .34
Jan
31		 DePaul C+ A- A+ B A+ 24% 40% 36% F A- F D- F A B A+ A B- B- F C D 34% 26% 40% B+ D+ A+ D- B+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.07 64% 50% 38% +8 -3 1.11 17% 0.8 .14 16% .35 84% .30 1.04 56% 57% 33% +4 -1 1.08 23% 1.3 .29 17% .02 0% .00
Feb
3		 Connecticut D+ B- F A- B 26% 36% 38% F C+ D+ F+ D C+ A+ F A+ D- F D- F F 48% 12% 40% D F F+ A+ A+ B+ C- F+ D
0.88 55% 20% 38% -5 -3 0.86 22% 0.8 .16 19% .51 64% .32 1.34 83% 50% 45% +20 +2 1.46 43% 0.5 .21 19% .32 78% .25
Feb
9		 St. John's B F A+ D+ B- 45% 35% 20% D C+ D- A+ C+ A+ D- F F A+ D- A+ A C+ 57% 22% 20% C C+ A A+ A+ D+ F B+ F
0.99 40% 52% 31% -4 -1 0.91 22% 1.3 .29 11% .23 53% .12 1.05 65% 25% 27% -1 +1 1.02 30% 0.4 .12 12% .56 68% .38
Feb
14		 Marquette A+ F A A+ A+ 27% 24% 49% D- A B C+ B A+ B+ A+ A+ F+ F B A- D 51% 15% 34% B- D+ C+ F D- D+ A+ D A+
1.33 47% 46% 48% +9 -1 1.18 36% 1.0 .36 11% .33 86% .28 1.22 71% 33% 29% +3 +2 1.11 30% 1.3 .38 12% .17 73% .13
Feb
17		 Villanova B+ B A A+ A+ 37% 30% 33% C- A C A+ A C+ D+ A+ C+ C+ C A+ D+ B+ 32% 20% 48% B B+ A B A F C A B-
1.13 62% 47% 42% +8 -1 1.16 30% 1.4 .42 20% .21 85% .18 1.17 62% 23% 38% +1 0 1.03 29% 0.9 .27 8% .30 64% .19
Feb
21		 Butler B- A- A+ C- B+ 21% 29% 50% F B- D D+ D A+ D A+ C- C+ B- B- B+ B+ 56% 23% 21% C+ B+ A+ B A+ F F D F
1.10 67% 50% 32% +4 -2 1.05 23% 0.9 .20 10% .18 82% .15 1.18 56% 36% 30% -3 +1 0.98 25% 1.0 .25 9% .53 76% .40



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.4 0.4 4th
5th 0.5 1.0 1.5 5th
6th 4.9 10.8 0.5 16.2 6th
7th 0.0 15.1 2.7 17.8 7th
8th 5.0 12.5 0.1 17.6 8th
9th 16.7 2.3 19.0 9th
10th 7.6 13.5 0.1 21.2 10th
11th 5.8 0.5 6.3 11th
Total 13.4 35.7 34.9 14.2 1.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
8-12 14.2% 0.7% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.1
7-13 34.9% 0.4% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 34.7
6-14 35.7% 0.2% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 35.6
5-15 13.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 13.4
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 12.5 99.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 7.7%