Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#57
Expected Predictive Rating+7.7#75
Pace66.0#239
Improvement-1.0#226

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#41
First Shot+4.4#66
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#67
Layup/Dunks+6.7#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#286
Freethrows+4.4#6
Improvement+0.8#129

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#85
First Shot+1.2#136
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#29
Layups/Dunks-0.9#205
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#169
Freethrows+1.4#85
Improvement-1.8#284
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.2% 33.8% 21.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.2% 19.0% 8.0%
Average Seed 10.2 10.0 10.6
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 99.4% 95.9%
Conference Champion 8.9% 14.4% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.2% 7.9% 4.6%
First Round24.2% 29.8% 18.9%
Second Round8.6% 11.7% 5.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 3.0% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 48.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 4
Quad 25 - 57 - 9
Quad 36 - 113 - 10
Quad 49 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 178   Oakland W 87-43 89%     1 - 0 +40.4 +18.1 +25.3
  Nov 09, 2024 75   @ San Francisco L 73-84 49%     1 - 1 -0.9 +6.7 -7.8
  Nov 17, 2024 30   Clemson W 84-71 48%     2 - 1 +23.4 +14.9 +8.3
  Nov 24, 2024 256   Hampton W 83-69 91%     3 - 1 +8.6 +10.3 -1.4
  Nov 25, 2024 114   South Dakota St. W 83-82 74%     4 - 1 +3.9 +10.9 -6.9
  Nov 26, 2024 195   Boston College L 61-63 85%     4 - 2 -3.6 -12.1 +8.5
  Dec 03, 2024 284   Utah Tech W 87-64 96%     5 - 2 +13.1 +16.9 -1.8
  Dec 07, 2024 85   Washington St. L 69-74 62%     5 - 3 +1.7 -2.6 +4.5
  Dec 14, 2024 35   St. Mary's W 67-65 OT 39%     6 - 3 +14.6 +5.7 +9.1
  Dec 17, 2024 300   Texas Southern W 82-51 96%     7 - 3 +20.5 +3.1 +15.7
  Dec 21, 2024 275   Air Force W 77-59 95%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +8.8 +6.7 +3.7
  Dec 28, 2024 160   @ San Jose St. W 73-71 74%     9 - 3 2 - 0 +5.0 +12.6 -7.2
  Dec 31, 2024 186   @ Wyoming W 67-58 78%     10 - 3 3 - 0 +10.6 +4.6 +7.2
  Jan 04, 2025 47   San Diego St. L 68-76 56%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +0.1 +4.7 -4.7
  Jan 07, 2025 99   UNLV W 81-59 77%     11 - 4 4 - 1 +24.2 +14.4 +11.4
  Jan 11, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 79-81 38%     11 - 5 4 - 2 +11.0 +26.8 -16.2
  Jan 14, 2025 186   Wyoming W 96-55 89%     12 - 5 5 - 2 +37.1 +25.3 +13.2
  Jan 17, 2025 53   @ New Mexico L 65-84 37%     12 - 6 5 - 3 -5.8 -2.1 -3.0
  Jan 22, 2025 76   @ Colorado St. L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 29, 2025 68   Nevada W 71-67 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 86-68 95%    
  Feb 04, 2025 99   @ UNLV W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 07, 2025 160   San Jose St. W 78-66 88%    
  Feb 15, 2025 47   @ San Diego St. L 65-69 35%    
  Feb 19, 2025 53   New Mexico W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 68   @ Nevada L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 26, 2025 54   Utah St. W 76-74 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 254   @ Fresno St. W 83-71 86%    
  Mar 04, 2025 275   @ Air Force W 74-61 89%    
  Mar 07, 2025 76   Colorado St. W 73-68 69%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.5 3.4 1.2 8.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 7.5 7.1 1.4 0.1 17.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 7.9 9.8 2.2 0.0 20.6 3rd
4th 0.7 5.9 10.6 2.3 0.0 19.6 4th
5th 0.4 4.5 8.9 3.1 0.1 16.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.7 2.7 0.1 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.3 1.0 0.1 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.4 11.9 18.4 22.6 20.4 12.8 4.9 1.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 93.7% 1.2    0.9 0.2
16-4 70.0% 3.4    1.8 1.4 0.3
15-5 27.1% 3.5    0.5 1.7 1.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.8% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.9% 8.9 3.3 3.5 1.7 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.3% 88.9% 31.0% 57.9% 7.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 83.9%
16-4 4.9% 76.0% 33.9% 42.1% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.5 1.2 63.7%
15-5 12.8% 51.9% 23.7% 28.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.6 2.4 0.1 6.2 36.9%
14-6 20.4% 33.3% 19.7% 13.6% 10.6 0.1 0.4 2.0 4.1 0.2 13.6 17.0%
13-7 22.6% 20.5% 14.5% 5.9% 10.8 0.2 0.8 3.4 0.3 17.9 7.0%
12-8 18.4% 14.7% 12.2% 2.5% 11.1 0.0 0.2 2.0 0.4 15.7 2.8%
11-9 11.9% 8.8% 8.2% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 0.8 0.3 10.9 0.6%
10-10 5.4% 8.9% 8.9% 11.4 0.3 0.2 4.9
9-11 1.8% 5.0% 5.0% 11.7 0.0 0.1 1.7
8-12 0.5% 3.8% 3.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.2% 16.2% 11.0% 10.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.5 2.8 6.8 13.6 1.5 0.0 72.8 13.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 4.8 12.8 33.3 20.5 30.8 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 87.0% 7.7 13.0 30.4 26.1 8.7 8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 80.0% 8.4 2.5 7.5 40.0 15.0 15.0