Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#47
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#128
Pace66.0#280
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#48
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#58
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.6% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 3.9% 5.4% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 8.1% 10.9% 3.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.9% 42.0% 24.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.7% 26.9% 12.2%
Average Seed 8.6 8.3 9.3
.500 or above 93.6% 97.1% 88.4%
.500 or above in Conference 91.2% 93.8% 87.2%
Conference Champion 22.9% 26.8% 17.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four4.5% 5.2% 3.6%
First Round32.9% 39.7% 22.7%
Second Round17.9% 22.3% 11.2%
Sweet Sixteen6.9% 9.0% 3.9%
Elite Eight3.1% 4.1% 1.6%
Final Four1.3% 1.7% 0.6%
Championship Game0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Clemson (Home) - 59.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 5
Quad 24 - 36 - 8
Quad 35 - 112 - 9
Quad 49 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 186   Oakland W 87-43 90%     1 - 0 +39.7 +18.8 +24.0
  Nov 09, 2024 69   @ San Francisco L 73-84 46%     1 - 1 +0.0 +6.9 -7.2
  Nov 17, 2024 44   Clemson W 71-68 60%    
  Nov 24, 2024 323   Hampton W 81-62 96%    
  Dec 03, 2024 301   Utah Tech W 83-63 96%    
  Dec 07, 2024 75   Washington St. W 75-73 58%    
  Dec 15, 2024 40   St. Mary's L 67-68 47%    
  Dec 17, 2024 257   Texas Southern W 78-60 95%    
  Dec 21, 2024 286   Air Force W 75-56 96%    
  Dec 28, 2024 251   @ San Jose St. W 74-63 84%    
  Dec 31, 2024 196   @ Wyoming W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 04, 2025 55   San Diego St. W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 07, 2025 94   UNLV W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 11, 2025 43   @ Utah St. L 71-75 38%    
  Jan 14, 2025 196   Wyoming W 78-63 90%    
  Jan 17, 2025 56   @ New Mexico L 79-81 43%    
  Jan 22, 2025 91   @ Colorado St. W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 29, 2025 46   Nevada W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 01, 2025 234   Fresno St. W 81-65 92%    
  Feb 04, 2025 94   @ UNLV W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 07, 2025 251   San Jose St. W 77-60 93%    
  Feb 15, 2025 55   @ San Diego St. L 65-67 42%    
  Feb 19, 2025 56   New Mexico W 82-78 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 46   @ Nevada L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 26, 2025 43   Utah St. W 74-72 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 234   @ Fresno St. W 78-68 81%    
  Mar 04, 2025 286   @ Air Force W 72-59 87%    
  Mar 07, 2025 91   Colorado St. W 72-65 73%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.5 6.7 4.8 2.4 0.7 22.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.9 7.0 5.4 1.8 0.2 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.2 6.5 3.4 0.6 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.5 5.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 4.3 1.6 0.1 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.9 2.4 0.9 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.2 6.0 8.2 10.9 12.0 13.1 13.0 11.5 8.5 5.0 2.4 0.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 2.4    2.4 0.0
18-2 95.2% 4.8    4.2 0.6 0.0
17-3 79.1% 6.7    4.8 1.7 0.1
16-4 48.3% 5.5    2.5 2.4 0.6 0.0
15-5 17.8% 2.3    0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.9% 22.9 15.1 6.0 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 99.5% 66.5% 33.0% 2.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
19-1 2.4% 99.0% 55.5% 43.5% 4.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.8%
18-2 5.0% 94.6% 43.8% 50.7% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 90.3%
17-3 8.5% 84.5% 35.5% 49.0% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.3 75.9%
16-4 11.5% 66.1% 29.0% 37.1% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.9 0.2 3.9 52.2%
15-5 13.0% 44.0% 21.8% 22.3% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.3 28.5%
14-6 13.1% 25.4% 14.6% 10.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 0.6 0.0 9.8 12.6%
13-7 12.0% 13.5% 10.2% 3.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 10.4 3.6%
12-8 10.9% 8.4% 7.7% 0.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 10.0 0.8%
11-9 8.2% 5.6% 5.3% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 7.7 0.3%
10-10 6.0% 2.8% 2.8% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
9-11 4.2% 1.9% 1.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
8-12 2.3% 1.5% 1.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
7-13 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-14 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-15 0.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 34.9% 17.9% 17.0% 8.6 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.3 4.1 5.5 8.3 2.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.1 20.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 46.7 36.7 13.3 3.3