College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#111
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#71
Pace78.5#13
Improvement+1.6#94

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#152
First Shot+3.6#82
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#322
Layup/Dunks-0.7#208
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#130
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#114
Freethrows+1.7#83
Improvement-0.2#182

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#109
First Shot+1.3#139
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#100
Layups/Dunks-0.7#196
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#142
Freethrows+0.6#140
Improvement+1.8#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.0% 29.3% 24.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.6% 97.3%
Conference Champion 56.1% 62.7% 37.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round27.9% 29.3% 24.3%
Second Round2.9% 3.3% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Away) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 32 - 3
Quad 39 - 410 - 7
Quad 414 - 224 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 247   Southern Illinois W 90-80 78%     1 - 0 +5.3 +6.3 -2.0
  Nov 08, 2024 135   South Florida W 86-71 68%     2 - 0 +13.5 +0.5 +11.0
  Nov 15, 2024 94   Florida Atlantic W 119-116 2OT 54%     3 - 0 +5.2 +16.1 -11.6
  Nov 17, 2024 72   Liberty L 47-68 46%     3 - 1 -16.7 -18.4 +0.2
  Nov 20, 2024 349   @ The Citadel W 76-61 88%     4 - 1 +5.6 +3.5 +2.7
  Nov 24, 2024 105   @ Rhode Island L 53-91 36%     4 - 2 -31.0 -18.6 -10.1
  Nov 27, 2024 207   Northern Kentucky W 79-64 79%     5 - 2 +9.9 +8.6 +1.7
  Dec 10, 2024 96   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-75 32%     6 - 2 +11.2 +5.1 +5.9
  Dec 16, 2024 157   Wofford W 77-67 73%     7 - 2 +7.1 +4.1 +3.6
  Dec 22, 2024 86   Oregon St. L 65-74 38%     7 - 3 -2.6 -7.0 +4.7
  Dec 23, 2024 125   Loyola Chicago W 77-68 54%     8 - 3 +11.4 -0.3 +11.0
  Dec 25, 2024 222   Charlotte W 84-81 74%     9 - 3 -0.3 +3.8 -4.3
  Jan 02, 2025 268   Hampton W 94-67 87%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +18.2 +9.0 +6.6
  Jan 04, 2025 192   Towson W 77-69 77%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +3.6 +5.4 -1.6
  Jan 09, 2025 173   @ Hofstra W 67-61 54%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +8.4 +0.1 +8.2
  Jan 11, 2025 273   @ Monmouth W 79-73 73%    
  Jan 16, 2025 261   @ Campbell W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 18, 2025 208   Northeastern W 80-72 78%    
  Jan 23, 2025 141   UNC Wilmington W 78-73 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 179   @ Elon W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 30, 2025 324   Stony Brook W 84-68 93%    
  Feb 01, 2025 183   @ William & Mary W 85-84 55%    
  Feb 06, 2025 318   N.C. A&T W 91-75 93%    
  Feb 08, 2025 179   Elon W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 13, 2025 141   @ UNC Wilmington L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 318   @ N.C. A&T W 88-78 82%    
  Feb 20, 2025 208   @ Northeastern W 77-75 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 163   @ Drexel W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 27, 2025 194   Delaware W 87-79 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 261   Campbell W 79-67 86%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 6.5 14.1 15.8 11.8 5.4 1.5 56.1 1st
2nd 0.4 4.3 7.7 4.6 1.2 0.1 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.6 3.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.4 7th
8th 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 4.4 8.0 12.8 17.0 19.1 17.0 11.9 5.4 1.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 100.0% 5.4    5.4 0.0
16-2 99.4% 11.8    11.2 0.6 0.0
15-3 92.8% 15.8    12.8 2.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 73.9% 14.1    7.8 5.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 38.3% 6.5    1.5 2.7 2.0 0.4 0.0
12-6 6.8% 0.9    0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 56.1% 56.1 40.2 11.6 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 49.1% 48.5% 0.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.3%
17-1 5.4% 47.0% 47.0% 11.9 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.4 2.9
16-2 11.9% 37.1% 37.1% 12.2 0.3 3.0 1.0 0.1 7.5
15-3 17.0% 34.2% 34.2% 12.5 0.1 2.8 2.7 0.2 11.2
14-4 19.1% 29.1% 29.1% 12.8 0.0 1.7 3.2 0.6 0.0 13.6
13-5 17.0% 25.4% 25.4% 13.1 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.1 0.1 12.7
12-6 12.8% 20.5% 20.5% 13.4 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.2 10.2
11-7 8.0% 16.4% 16.4% 13.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 6.6
10-8 4.4% 11.0% 11.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.9
9-9 1.8% 5.0% 5.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
8-10 0.8% 7.5% 7.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.0% 27.9% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 10.3 11.8 3.9 0.5 72.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 11.2 1.4 1.4 6.4 56.4 34.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%