George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.6#92
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#257
Pace66.7#260
Improvement-0.9#279

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#122
First Shot+0.1#177
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#85
Layup/Dunks-0.7#203
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#268
Freethrows+4.8#12
Improvement+0.5#103

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#76
First Shot+5.7#37
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#305
Layups/Dunks+3.8#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#152
Freethrows+0.6#147
Improvement-1.4#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 10.8% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.6 11.4 12.0
.500 or above 80.3% 89.0% 71.5%
.500 or above in Conference 77.9% 82.7% 73.1%
Conference Champion 11.7% 14.3% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.8% 1.9%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round8.8% 10.6% 7.0%
Second Round2.4% 3.0% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Away) - 50.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 4
Quad 22 - 33 - 7
Quad 37 - 410 - 12
Quad 49 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 264   NC Central W 75-58 90%     1 - 0 +8.6 -1.0 +10.1
  Nov 08, 2024 15   @ Marquette L 63-82 13%     1 - 1 -1.3 -3.4 +3.0
  Nov 11, 2024 302   Stony Brook W 94-56 92%     2 - 1 +27.5 +16.0 +11.8
  Nov 13, 2024 204   Central Michigan L 69-70 84%     2 - 2 -6.1 -3.6 -2.5
  Nov 16, 2024 145   @ East Carolina L 77-78 2OT 56%     2 - 3 +3.0 -1.3 +4.4
  Nov 20, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 93-55 99%     3 - 3 +15.7 +19.1 -0.9
  Nov 29, 2024 126   @ James Madison W 73-72 50%    
  Dec 03, 2024 176   UNC Asheville W 76-67 81%    
  Dec 07, 2024 146   Tulane W 76-68 76%    
  Dec 17, 2024 5   @ Duke L 62-79 6%    
  Dec 22, 2024 267   Penn W 77-63 90%    
  Dec 28, 2024 278   Mount St. Mary's W 77-62 91%    
  Dec 31, 2024 131   Davidson W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 113   @ Rhode Island L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 08, 2025 201   Richmond W 72-62 82%    
  Jan 11, 2025 128   Massachusetts W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 15, 2025 60   @ Dayton L 64-70 29%    
  Jan 18, 2025 143   George Washington W 78-70 75%    
  Jan 21, 2025 115   @ St. Bonaventure L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 29, 2025 104   Loyola Chicago W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 131   @ Davidson W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 05, 2025 143   @ George Washington W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 113   Rhode Island W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 11, 2025 100   @ Saint Louis L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 99   Saint Joseph's W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 50   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-72 27%    
  Feb 26, 2025 162   Fordham W 74-65 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 211   @ Duquesne W 70-65 67%    
  Mar 05, 2025 121   La Salle W 72-66 68%    
  Mar 08, 2025 201   @ Richmond W 69-65 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 3.5 2.2 0.8 0.1 11.7 1st
2nd 0.3 2.4 4.9 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 5.2 3.8 0.9 0.1 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.8 3.9 0.7 0.1 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.9 4.5 1.0 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 4.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.5 0.2 7.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.5 3.2 0.5 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.2 1.1 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.7 0.2 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.9 5.9 8.6 11.0 13.1 13.8 12.8 10.9 8.2 4.8 2.4 0.8 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 90.6% 2.2    1.7 0.5 0.0
15-3 72.1% 3.5    2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 40.7% 3.3    1.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.8% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 6.3 3.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 80.9% 40.4% 40.4% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.9%
17-1 0.8% 54.5% 36.0% 18.5% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 28.9%
16-2 2.4% 35.6% 28.9% 6.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 9.5%
15-3 4.8% 25.5% 24.0% 1.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.6 2.0%
14-4 8.2% 19.3% 19.0% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 6.6 0.3%
13-5 10.9% 15.3% 15.2% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 9.2 0.1%
12-6 12.8% 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 12.1 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 11.5 0.0%
11-7 13.8% 6.1% 6.1% 12.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 12.9
10-8 13.1% 3.5% 3.5% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 12.7
9-9 11.0% 2.2% 2.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.8
8-10 8.6% 1.3% 1.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5
7-11 5.9% 1.0% 1.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
6-12 3.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 3.9
5-13 2.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 8.9% 8.5% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.5 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 91.1 0.5%