James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#126
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#220
Pace72.7#85
Improvement-1.0#290

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#126
First Shot+0.6#152
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#114
Layup/Dunks-0.2#178
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#27
Freethrows-2.7#310
Improvement-0.9#303

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#145
First Shot-3.8#293
After Offensive Rebounds+4.6#11
Layups/Dunks-2.7#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#195
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#246
Freethrows+0.5#153
Improvement-0.1#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.7% 20.6% 13.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.8 13.4
.500 or above 81.7% 89.0% 71.5%
.500 or above in Conference 89.3% 92.3% 85.2%
Conference Champion 27.0% 31.5% 20.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round17.6% 20.6% 13.5%
Second Round2.7% 3.5% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Neutral) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 21 - 2
Quad 35 - 66 - 8
Quad 411 - 317 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 158   Ohio W 88-78 70%     1 - 0 +7.2 +8.7 -1.7
  Nov 09, 2024 197   @ Norfolk St. L 69-83 54%     1 - 1 -12.6 -2.6 -10.1
  Nov 16, 2024 129   @ Towson L 63-67 40%     1 - 2 +1.2 -1.0 +1.8
  Nov 21, 2024 156   Illinois-Chicago W 80-78 58%    
  Nov 29, 2024 92   George Mason L 72-73 50%    
  Dec 03, 2024 188   East Tennessee St. W 78-71 73%    
  Dec 07, 2024 136   Utah Valley W 74-70 63%    
  Dec 17, 2024 75   @ Wake Forest L 71-79 23%    
  Dec 21, 2024 198   @ South Alabama W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 02, 2025 256   Southern Miss W 86-76 82%    
  Jan 04, 2025 107   Arkansas St. W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 09, 2025 196   @ Marshall W 78-77 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 200   @ Appalachian St. W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 16, 2025 196   Marshall W 81-74 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 200   Appalachian St. W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 22, 2025 303   @ Old Dominion W 81-74 74%    
  Jan 25, 2025 229   @ Georgia St. W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 30, 2025 295   Coastal Carolina W 77-64 86%    
  Feb 01, 2025 303   Old Dominion W 84-71 88%    
  Feb 05, 2025 124   Troy W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 13, 2025 220   @ Georgia Southern W 84-82 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 295   @ Coastal Carolina W 74-67 71%    
  Feb 20, 2025 229   Georgia St. W 80-71 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 220   Georgia Southern W 87-79 76%    
  Feb 25, 2025 321   @ Louisiana Monroe W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 28, 2025 165   @ Texas St. L 70-71 50%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.3 7.7 6.7 3.7 1.1 27.0 1st
2nd 0.3 2.6 6.2 6.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.6 4.5 1.2 0.1 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.7 3.7 0.9 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.4 0.8 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 3.2 0.9 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.5 1.2 0.1 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.8 4.7 6.6 8.9 11.6 13.1 13.9 12.7 10.5 7.2 3.7 1.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 99.2% 3.7    3.5 0.2
16-2 92.6% 6.7    5.5 1.2 0.0
15-3 73.3% 7.7    4.9 2.4 0.4 0.0
14-4 41.8% 5.3    2.2 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.7% 2.2    0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.0% 27.0 17.7 7.0 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 54.3% 51.4% 2.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 5.9%
17-1 3.7% 46.5% 46.3% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 0.4%
16-2 7.2% 36.9% 36.9% 12.3 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.8 0.1 4.6
15-3 10.5% 29.9% 29.9% 12.7 0.1 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 7.4
14-4 12.7% 25.0% 25.0% 13.1 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.1 9.5
13-5 13.9% 18.7% 18.7% 13.5 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 11.3
12-6 13.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.0 11.3
11-7 11.6% 9.0% 9.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 10.5
10-8 8.9% 5.6% 5.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.4
9-9 6.6% 3.5% 3.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.4
8-10 4.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.6
7-11 2.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.8
6-12 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 4.9 5.6 3.8 1.7 0.4 82.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.2 2.3 7.0 11.6 16.3 27.9 9.3 11.6 2.3 4.7 7.0