Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#38
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#216
Pace70.9#131
Improvement-0.7#272

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#22
First Shot+10.6#4
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#318
Layup/Dunks+5.6#33
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#87
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#56
Freethrows-1.2#247
Improvement-0.4#238

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#75
First Shot+1.4#132
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#47
Layups/Dunks+3.5#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#224
Freethrows+0.2#176
Improvement-0.4#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 2.2% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 6.0% 7.3% 2.0%
Top 6 Seed 13.1% 15.5% 5.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.6% 49.5% 29.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.2% 45.9% 27.0%
Average Seed 7.8 7.6 8.5
.500 or above 91.2% 94.3% 81.6%
.500 or above in Conference 76.6% 79.7% 66.7%
Conference Champion 6.7% 7.6% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.9% 2.3%
First Four5.6% 5.8% 5.0%
First Round42.0% 46.8% 26.9%
Second Round25.8% 29.2% 15.2%
Sweet Sixteen10.5% 12.1% 5.6%
Elite Eight4.6% 5.4% 2.2%
Final Four1.9% 2.2% 0.8%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Drake (Neutral) - 75.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 6
Quad 26 - 39 - 10
Quad 35 - 114 - 11
Quad 46 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 347   Fairleigh Dickinson W 113-72 99%     1 - 0 +25.4 +23.3 -0.3
  Nov 10, 2024 330   Binghamton W 88-64 98%     2 - 0 +11.4 +10.6 +1.3
  Nov 17, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 93-63 99%     3 - 0 +7.7 +16.9 -7.9
  Nov 21, 2024 106   Drake W 77-70 76%    
  Nov 30, 2024 310   Charleston Southern W 87-64 98%    
  Dec 03, 2024 25   Arkansas W 78-77 54%    
  Dec 07, 2024 49   Clemson W 77-72 67%    
  Dec 10, 2024 9   Tennessee L 73-79 30%    
  Dec 15, 2024 279   Presbyterian W 86-65 97%    
  Dec 21, 2024 278   Mount St. Mary's W 85-64 97%    
  Jan 01, 2025 138   @ Boston College W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 04, 2025 118   @ Virginia Tech W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 07, 2025 81   Florida St. W 80-73 74%    
  Jan 11, 2025 75   Wake Forest W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 14, 2025 5   @ Duke L 70-81 17%    
  Jan 18, 2025 66   SMU W 83-77 70%    
  Jan 22, 2025 76   @ Stanford W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 102   @ California W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 29, 2025 58   Virginia W 66-61 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 53   Notre Dame W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 10, 2025 46   @ Louisville L 77-78 45%    
  Feb 11, 2025 93   Syracuse W 85-76 78%    
  Feb 15, 2025 23   @ Pittsburgh L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 19, 2025 81   @ Florida St. W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 118   Virginia Tech W 80-69 83%    
  Feb 25, 2025 5   Duke L 73-78 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 8   @ North Carolina L 78-87 22%    
  Mar 04, 2025 105   @ Georgia Tech W 82-78 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 52   North Carolina St. W 79-74 67%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 6.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.4 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.4 3.2 0.9 0.1 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.7 3.3 0.8 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 4.1 3.8 0.9 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.9 4.0 1.2 0.1 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.1 1.9 0.2 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 3.3 0.8 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.5 0.1 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.7 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.1 2.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.4 4.1 6.2 8.1 10.3 11.6 12.4 12.2 10.5 8.2 5.8 3.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.5% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 89.5% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
17-3 62.1% 2.1    1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
16-4 30.7% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 9.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 3.5 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 37.2% 62.8% 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.5% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 3.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.5% 99.8% 20.1% 79.7% 4.3 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
16-4 5.8% 98.9% 18.1% 80.8% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
15-5 8.2% 93.4% 13.0% 80.4% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.5 92.4%
14-6 10.5% 81.7% 9.4% 72.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.7 0.6 0.0 1.9 79.8%
13-7 12.2% 62.9% 4.9% 58.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.8 2.1 1.6 0.1 4.5 61.0%
12-8 12.4% 41.5% 2.9% 38.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.6 0.1 7.2 39.8%
11-9 11.6% 23.5% 1.7% 21.8% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.1 8.9 22.2%
10-10 10.3% 11.5% 1.1% 10.3% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.1 10.4%
9-11 8.1% 3.2% 0.6% 2.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.8 2.6%
8-12 6.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 0.6%
7-13 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 4.1
6-14 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 2.4 0.1%
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 44.6% 5.8% 38.8% 7.8 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.1 4.0 4.9 6.2 6.4 7.3 6.1 0.5 0.0 55.4 41.2%