Oregon St.
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#73
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#76
Pace62.9#319
Improvement-2.5#296

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#50
First Shot+5.6#48
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#161
Layup/Dunks+2.0#107
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#171
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#100
Freethrows+1.2#101
Improvement+2.2#63

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#126
First Shot+2.4#96
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#253
Layups/Dunks+1.2#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#99
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#230
Freethrows+1.1#100
Improvement-4.7#357
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 7.2% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.1% 2.7% 0.7%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.8% 96.3%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 2.3% 0.6%
First Round4.7% 5.9% 2.1%
Second Round1.2% 1.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Home) - 70.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 6
Quad 22 - 34 - 9
Quad 34 - 28 - 10
Quad 413 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 294   Utah Tech W 80-57 94%     1 - 0 +13.1 +2.8 +10.3
  Nov 08, 2024 256   Weber St. W 76-48 92%     2 - 0 +19.9 +3.4 +19.0
  Nov 15, 2024 309   Cal St. Fullerton W 70-51 95%     3 - 0 +7.9 +2.1 +8.3
  Nov 21, 2024 39   Oregon L 75-78 43%     3 - 1 +6.5 +10.7 -4.4
  Nov 25, 2024 64   @ North Texas L 55-58 36%     3 - 2 +8.4 +0.4 +7.4
  Nov 30, 2024 224   UC Davis W 90-57 89%     4 - 2 +27.2 +25.1 +4.4
  Dec 07, 2024 239   Idaho W 78-62 91%     5 - 2 +8.9 +7.3 +3.4
  Dec 14, 2024 65   UC Irvine W 67-55 56%     6 - 2 +18.0 +0.6 +17.2
  Dec 17, 2024 333   Sacramento St. W 82-45 96%     7 - 2 +23.6 +8.7 +16.6
  Dec 22, 2024 118   College of Charleston W 74-65 69%     8 - 2 +11.5 +0.2 +11.1
  Dec 23, 2024 178   Oakland W 80-74 OT 79%     9 - 2 +5.2 +8.3 -2.9
  Dec 25, 2024 53   Nebraska L 66-78 41%     9 - 3 -1.9 +5.6 -8.7
  Dec 30, 2024 313   Portland W 89-79 95%     10 - 3 1 - 0 -1.4 +17.0 -17.5
  Jan 02, 2025 145   @ Loyola Marymount L 61-82 65%     10 - 4 1 - 1 -17.4 -3.4 -15.6
  Jan 04, 2025 302   San Diego W 81-54 94%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +16.4 +8.8 +9.1
  Jan 09, 2025 69   @ Santa Clara L 81-82 OT 38%     11 - 5 2 - 2 +9.8 +5.8 +4.1
  Jan 11, 2025 295   @ Pacific W 91-55 88%     12 - 5 3 - 2 +31.0 +22.0 +11.7
  Jan 16, 2025 10   Gonzaga W 97-89 OT 23%     13 - 5 4 - 2 +23.4 +19.6 +3.1
  Jan 18, 2025 85   @ San Francisco L 70-81 43%     13 - 6 4 - 3 -1.6 +6.8 -9.1
  Jan 23, 2025 195   Pepperdine W 83-63 86%     14 - 6 5 - 3 +15.9 +21.7 -2.7
  Jan 25, 2025 69   Santa Clara W 83-69 57%     15 - 6 6 - 3 +19.7 +16.7 +3.9
  Jan 28, 2025 10   @ Gonzaga L 60-98 12%     15 - 7 6 - 4 -17.5 -1.7 -18.8
  Feb 06, 2025 97   Washington St. W 77-72 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 30   St. Mary's L 64-68 38%    
  Feb 13, 2025 313   @ Portland W 81-67 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 295   Pacific W 80-62 96%    
  Feb 20, 2025 195   @ Pepperdine W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 302   @ San Diego W 80-67 88%    
  Feb 27, 2025 85   San Francisco W 72-69 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 30   @ St. Mary's L 61-70 19%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.7 1st
2nd 1.1 4.9 1.7 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 8.0 22.3 9.1 0.2 39.8 3rd
4th 0.0 3.3 14.7 6.5 0.1 24.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 9.8 7.4 0.5 19.4 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 2.7 0.2 5.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 1.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 1.1 5.3 16.2 30.2 30.4 14.3 2.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 22.5% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.2
13-5 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.4% 36.7% 12.5% 24.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.5 27.6%
13-5 14.3% 14.1% 8.0% 6.1% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.2 12.2 6.6%
12-6 30.4% 5.4% 4.1% 1.3% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.3 28.8 1.4%
11-7 30.2% 3.2% 2.6% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 0.7 0.2 29.2 0.6%
10-8 16.2% 1.2% 1.2% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 16.0
9-9 5.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.2%
8-10 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 13.0 0.0 1.1
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.8% 3.7% 2.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.8 0.8 0.0 94.2 2.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 8.4 13.3 3.3 40.0 23.3 13.3 3.3 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 33.3% 10.6 2.7 8.0 21.3 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3% 25.2% 10.8 4.6 19.8 0.8