St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#89
Expected Predictive Rating+13.5#40
Pace64.5#292
Improvement+1.1#113

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#131
First Shot-0.7#191
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#58
Layup/Dunks+3.7#57
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#153
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#308
Freethrows-0.5#206
Improvement-0.6#234

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#55
First Shot+5.7#33
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#250
Layups/Dunks+4.5#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#148
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#258
Freethrows+2.5#38
Improvement+1.7#64
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.1% 12.3% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.7% 2.8% 0.8%
Average Seed 11.0 11.0 11.4
.500 or above 99.7% 99.7% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 85.6% 86.0% 76.6%
Conference Champion 12.1% 12.3% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 1.3%
First Four1.7% 1.8% 0.7%
First Round11.1% 11.3% 6.8%
Second Round3.3% 3.3% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Home) - 95.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 24 - 45 - 6
Quad 38 - 212 - 8
Quad 411 - 123 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 158   Cal St. Northridge W 70-56 81%     1 - 0 +10.9 -9.3 +19.0
  Nov 09, 2024 350   @ Canisius W 87-78 92%     2 - 0 -0.3 +18.2 -17.4
  Nov 13, 2024 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 74-65 68%     3 - 0 +10.7 +3.2 +7.6
  Nov 16, 2024 332   Le Moyne W 71-52 95%     4 - 0 +5.8 -1.2 +8.8
  Nov 24, 2024 178   Bryant W 85-70 83%     5 - 0 +11.1 +9.5 +1.5
  Nov 28, 2024 54   Utah St. L 67-72 37%     5 - 1 +4.9 +0.5 +4.2
  Nov 29, 2024 98   Northern Iowa W 68-56 53%     6 - 1 +17.5 +4.7 +14.3
  Dec 04, 2024 264   @ Bucknell W 64-47 80%     7 - 1 +14.4 -1.6 +17.4
  Dec 07, 2024 330   Buffalo W 65-55 95%     8 - 1 -2.9 -8.1 +6.1
  Dec 14, 2024 73   Providence W 74-70 45%     9 - 1 +11.6 +16.1 -4.0
  Dec 17, 2024 305   @ Siena W 65-48 85%     10 - 1 +12.2 -5.8 +18.7
  Dec 21, 2024 320   Niagara W 75-57 96%    
  Dec 31, 2024 57   Virginia Commonwealth L 64-65 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 169   @ Fordham W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 08, 2025 143   @ Saint Louis W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 164   La Salle W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 15, 2025 216   Richmond W 73-61 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 200   @ Duquesne W 67-62 68%    
  Jan 21, 2025 87   George Mason W 65-62 61%    
  Jan 24, 2025 57   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 62-68 29%    
  Jan 28, 2025 46   Dayton L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 169   Fordham W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 04, 2025 106   @ Loyola Chicago L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 09, 2025 136   George Washington W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 12, 2025 99   @ Rhode Island L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 191   @ Massachusetts W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 200   Duquesne W 70-59 84%    
  Feb 26, 2025 96   @ Saint Joseph's L 68-70 42%    
  Mar 05, 2025 191   Massachusetts W 76-65 83%    
  Mar 08, 2025 122   @ Davidson W 69-68 53%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 3.8 2.4 0.9 0.1 12.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.8 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.5 5.0 1.4 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.6 5.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.4 5.8 2.1 0.2 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.5 1.1 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.1 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.2 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.1 6.8 10.3 13.3 15.1 15.3 12.8 9.6 5.6 2.6 0.9 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.5% 0.9    0.8 0.1
16-2 92.6% 2.4    2.0 0.4 0.0
15-3 66.9% 3.8    2.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-4 37.0% 3.5    1.1 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.3% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 6.3 3.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 90.3% 37.5% 52.8% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.4%
17-1 0.9% 76.5% 32.1% 44.4% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 65.4%
16-2 2.6% 55.1% 31.1% 24.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.2 34.8%
15-3 5.6% 35.0% 23.1% 12.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.2 3.6 15.6%
14-4 9.6% 23.1% 18.5% 4.6% 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 7.4 5.6%
13-5 12.8% 16.3% 14.9% 1.4% 11.4 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.9 0.0 10.7 1.6%
12-6 15.3% 10.2% 9.9% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.0 13.7 0.3%
11-7 15.1% 6.7% 6.7% 0.1% 11.7 0.3 0.7 0.0 14.1 0.1%
10-8 13.3% 4.1% 4.1% 11.8 0.1 0.4 0.0 12.8
9-9 10.3% 3.0% 3.0% 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 10.0
8-10 6.8% 1.7% 1.7% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.7
7-11 4.1% 1.3% 1.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
6-12 2.1% 0.7% 0.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 2.1
5-13 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.1% 9.7% 2.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 5.8 3.9 0.2 0.0 87.9 2.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 7.4 7.4 48.1 11.1 14.8 11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 85.0% 7.7 10.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 10.0 20.0 10.0 10.0