West Virginia
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#41
Expected Predictive Rating+13.5#37
Pace62.5#328
Improvement-1.3#255

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#88
First Shot+5.1#55
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#288
Layup/Dunks-2.9#290
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#136
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#8
Freethrows-0.3#191
Improvement-1.9#278

Defense
Total Defense+8.8#13
First Shot+9.2#8
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#218
Layups/Dunks+8.0#9
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#98
Freethrows-0.8#249
Improvement+0.6#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.0% 9.5% 1.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.4% 94.7% 75.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.3% 94.6% 75.7%
Average Seed 9.2 8.3 9.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 50.9% 83.9% 43.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four14.0% 4.7% 16.2%
First Round72.8% 92.6% 68.1%
Second Round31.7% 43.9% 28.8%
Sweet Sixteen6.9% 10.4% 6.1%
Elite Eight2.3% 3.5% 2.0%
Final Four0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 18.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 46 - 11
Quad 24 - 210 - 13
Quad 34 - 114 - 13
Quad 46 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 173   Robert Morris W 87-59 91%     1 - 0 +24.9 +11.9 +12.5
  Nov 08, 2024 168   Massachusetts W 75-69 91%     2 - 0 +3.1 +0.0 +2.8
  Nov 15, 2024 52   @ Pittsburgh L 62-86 46%     2 - 1 -10.8 -8.3 -1.6
  Nov 20, 2024 259   Iona W 86-43 96%     3 - 1 +35.1 +13.9 +21.7
  Nov 27, 2024 11   Gonzaga W 86-78 OT 27%     4 - 1 +26.4 +11.9 +13.7
  Nov 28, 2024 21   Louisville L 70-79 OT 36%     4 - 2 +6.8 +1.7 +5.4
  Nov 29, 2024 8   Arizona W 83-76 OT 26%     5 - 2 +25.7 +17.2 +8.3
  Dec 06, 2024 73   Georgetown W 73-60 74%     6 - 2 +18.2 +8.6 +10.2
  Dec 10, 2024 310   NC Central W 79-45 97%     7 - 2 +22.8 +8.3 +18.6
  Dec 14, 2024 293   Bethune-Cookman W 84-61 97%     8 - 2 +13.1 +7.5 +5.4
  Dec 22, 2024 350   Mercyhurst W 67-46 99%     9 - 2 +5.6 -8.3 +15.4
  Dec 31, 2024 19   @ Kansas W 62-61 26%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +19.7 +10.6 +9.3
  Jan 04, 2025 92   Oklahoma St. W 69-50 80%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +22.0 +0.6 +22.0
  Jan 07, 2025 8   Arizona L 56-75 35%     11 - 3 2 - 1 -2.8 -2.4 -2.3
  Jan 12, 2025 91   @ Colorado W 78-70 65%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +16.1 +13.5 +2.9
  Jan 15, 2025 3   @ Houston L 54-70 12%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +9.0 +8.8 -4.4
  Jan 18, 2025 9   Iowa St. W 64-57 35%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +23.1 +3.4 +20.1
  Jan 21, 2025 65   Arizona St. L 57-65 73%     13 - 5 4 - 3 -2.2 -5.4 +2.3
  Jan 25, 2025 56   @ Kansas St. L 60-73 46%     13 - 6 4 - 4 +0.1 -2.2 +1.6
  Jan 29, 2025 3   Houston L 49-63 23%     13 - 7 4 - 5 +5.9 -1.4 +3.6
  Feb 02, 2025 46   @ Cincinnati W 63-50 43%     14 - 7 5 - 5 +26.8 +7.6 +21.0
  Feb 05, 2025 64   @ TCU L 60-65 54%     14 - 8 5 - 6 +5.9 +1.3 +4.1
  Feb 08, 2025 68   Utah W 72-61 73%     15 - 8 6 - 6 +16.7 +9.2 +8.6
  Feb 11, 2025 26   BYU L 69-73 49%     15 - 9 6 - 7 +8.3 +6.3 +1.6
  Feb 15, 2025 24   @ Baylor L 71-74 OT 29%     15 - 10 6 - 8 +14.9 +1.6 +13.4
  Feb 19, 2025 46   Cincinnati W 62-59 63%     16 - 10 7 - 8 +11.7 +6.0 +6.2
  Feb 22, 2025 10   @ Texas Tech L 63-72 19%    
  Feb 25, 2025 64   TCU W 66-60 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 26   @ BYU L 66-71 29%    
  Mar 04, 2025 68   @ Utah W 68-67 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 81   Central Florida W 76-68 78%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 3.5 1.6 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 6.1 0.2 8.3 6th
7th 0.4 10.0 3.8 0.0 14.3 7th
8th 4.5 14.8 0.8 20.1 8th
9th 0.4 13.0 6.6 0.0 19.9 9th
10th 0.0 3.2 12.5 0.9 16.6 10th
11th 0.6 7.8 3.3 0.0 11.8 11th
12th 1.2 1.8 0.0 3.0 12th
13th 0.3 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 2.0 13.3 33.8 34.4 14.3 2.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 2.2% 99.6% 1.3% 98.2% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
11-9 14.3% 99.0% 1.7% 97.3% 7.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 5.4 3.4 0.7 0.0 0.1 99.0%
10-10 34.4% 94.5% 0.6% 93.9% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.8 7.7 12.0 8.2 1.2 1.9 94.5%
9-11 33.8% 73.9% 0.6% 73.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.2 8.8 9.9 0.3 8.8 73.8%
8-12 13.3% 40.6% 0.2% 40.3% 10.9 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.8 0.6 7.9 40.4%
7-13 2.0% 9.3% 9.3% 11.3 0.1 0.1 1.9 9.3%
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 79.4% 0.7% 78.7% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 7.1 15.1 19.8 18.5 15.0 1.0 20.6 79.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 5.8 11.8 29.4 32.4 20.6 5.9
Lose Out 0.8%