Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#109
Expected Predictive Rating+7.7#84
Pace73.5#68
Improvement-0.5#217

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#155
First Shot-3.0#266
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#20
Layup/Dunks-0.1#184
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#325
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#269
Freethrows+2.8#45
Improvement+1.0#99

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#90
First Shot+5.9#25
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#339
Layups/Dunks+3.5#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#274
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#17
Freethrows-2.2#316
Improvement-1.5#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.6% 25.5% 18.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.4 12.8
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.7% 97.7% 89.9%
Conference Champion 35.5% 37.7% 19.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round24.6% 25.5% 18.4%
Second Round3.8% 4.1% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Home) - 87.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 12 - 2
Quad 36 - 48 - 7
Quad 414 - 223 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 163   Akron W 80-75 OT 75%     1 - 0 +1.7 -8.2 +9.1
  Nov 08, 2024 8   @ Alabama L 79-88 7%     1 - 1 +11.4 -0.7 +13.6
  Nov 12, 2024 243   Arkansas Little Rock W 80-63 86%     2 - 1 +9.3 +10.5 -0.4
  Nov 16, 2024 217   Stephen F. Austin W 59-49 81%     3 - 1 +4.4 -6.8 +12.0
  Nov 29, 2024 150   Indiana St. W 86-81 63%     4 - 1 +5.3 +5.8 -0.7
  Nov 30, 2024 196   Rice L 67-75 70%     4 - 2 -9.6 -4.8 -4.9
  Dec 01, 2024 151   Hofstra L 66-68 63%     4 - 3 -1.7 -0.6 -1.2
  Dec 05, 2024 303   Jackson St. W 66-64 91%     5 - 3 -8.7 -12.4 +3.7
  Dec 08, 2024 37   @ Memphis W 85-72 14%     6 - 3 +28.2 +6.2 +20.2
  Dec 12, 2024 145   Texas Arlington W 83-79 73%     7 - 3 +1.5 +5.6 -4.2
  Dec 15, 2024 129   @ UAB W 98-89 OT 46%     8 - 3 +13.9 +3.4 +8.6
  Dec 21, 2024 268   Coastal Carolina W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 02, 2025 315   @ Old Dominion W 79-70 82%    
  Jan 04, 2025 115   @ James Madison L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 09, 2025 202   @ South Alabama W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 125   @ Troy L 72-73 44%    
  Jan 16, 2025 291   Louisiana W 81-67 90%    
  Jan 18, 2025 263   Georgia St. W 81-69 87%    
  Jan 23, 2025 173   Appalachian St. W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 139   Texas St. W 75-69 69%    
  Jan 29, 2025 283   @ Southern Miss W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 139   @ Texas St. L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 05, 2025 190   @ Marshall W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 12, 2025 283   Southern Miss W 80-66 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 125   Troy W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 19, 2025 202   South Alabama W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 329   Louisiana Monroe W 80-63 94%    
  Feb 26, 2025 291   @ Louisiana W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 28, 2025 329   @ Louisiana Monroe W 77-66 83%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.0 8.0 11.0 8.2 4.0 0.9 35.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.9 7.8 7.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 6.4 5.0 1.2 0.1 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.4 4.0 0.8 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.9 0.8 0.0 6.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.9 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.9 6.7 10.5 14.6 16.8 16.7 14.0 8.6 4.0 0.9 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 99.3% 4.0    3.9 0.1
16-2 94.4% 8.2    7.1 1.0 0.0
15-3 78.7% 11.0    7.5 3.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 47.8% 8.0    3.3 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.0% 3.0    0.6 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.5% 35.5 23.3 9.1 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 54.4% 52.1% 2.2% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 4.7%
17-1 4.0% 44.5% 44.3% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.0 2.2 0.4%
16-2 8.6% 40.4% 40.4% 12.0 0.0 0.4 2.7 0.4 5.1
15-3 14.0% 34.0% 34.0% 12.3 0.1 3.2 1.4 0.0 9.3
14-4 16.7% 28.8% 28.8% 12.5 0.1 2.3 2.2 0.2 11.9
13-5 16.8% 24.1% 24.1% 12.8 0.0 1.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 12.7
12-6 14.6% 19.0% 19.0% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 11.8
11-7 10.5% 12.8% 12.8% 13.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 9.1
10-8 6.7% 11.1% 11.1% 13.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 6.0
9-9 3.9% 6.2% 6.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.6
8-10 1.9% 5.6% 5.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
7-11 0.9% 2.9% 2.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.6% 24.6% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 11.4 9.3 2.0 0.1 0.0 75.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 9.0 4.7 10.7 9.9 11.2 17.2 15.9 26.2 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 9.0% 10.3 1.3 3.8 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 2.7% 11.5 1.4 1.4