Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#112
Expected Predictive Rating+11.3#42
Pace70.8#129
Improvement+0.1#153

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#149
First Shot+1.1#138
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#182
Layup/Dunks+2.0#111
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#344
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
Freethrows+2.2#78
Improvement+0.0#174

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#91
First Shot+7.4#15
After Offensive Rebounds-4.5#347
Layups/Dunks-0.7#196
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.5#4
Freethrows-0.8#229
Improvement+0.1#172
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.2% 26.5% 19.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 12.9
.500 or above 94.0% 96.7% 88.5%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 94.9% 90.2%
Conference Champion 33.4% 36.7% 26.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round24.1% 26.4% 19.3%
Second Round4.4% 5.2% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.3% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Neutral) - 67.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 48 - 8
Quad 414 - 221 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 139   Akron W 80-75 OT 70%     1 - 0 +3.5 -5.2 +7.9
  Nov 08, 2024 9   @ Alabama L 79-88 7%     1 - 1 +11.1 -0.3 +12.9
  Nov 12, 2024 247   Arkansas Little Rock W 80-63 85%     2 - 1 +9.7 +7.3 +3.3
  Nov 16, 2024 182   Stephen F. Austin W 59-49 78%     3 - 1 +6.0 -8.4 +15.1
  Nov 29, 2024 180   Indiana St. W 81-76 68%    
  Nov 30, 2024 171   Rice W 72-67 66%    
  Dec 01, 2024 131   Hofstra W 70-68 57%    
  Dec 05, 2024 320   Jackson St. W 80-64 93%    
  Dec 08, 2024 33   @ Memphis L 71-82 15%    
  Dec 12, 2024 164   Texas Arlington W 81-74 75%    
  Dec 15, 2024 103   @ UAB L 72-76 37%    
  Dec 21, 2024 296   Coastal Carolina W 75-61 90%    
  Jan 02, 2025 305   @ Old Dominion W 79-70 79%    
  Jan 04, 2025 128   @ James Madison L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 09, 2025 196   @ South Alabama W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 124   @ Troy L 71-73 44%    
  Jan 16, 2025 244   Louisiana W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 223   Georgia St. W 77-67 81%    
  Jan 23, 2025 200   Appalachian St. W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 166   Texas St. W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 29, 2025 229   @ Southern Miss W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 166   @ Texas St. W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 05, 2025 195   @ Marshall W 76-74 59%    
  Feb 12, 2025 229   Southern Miss W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 124   Troy W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 19, 2025 196   South Alabama W 75-66 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 324   Louisiana Monroe W 78-62 92%    
  Feb 26, 2025 244   @ Louisiana W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 28, 2025 324   @ Louisiana Monroe W 75-65 80%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.9 9.5 8.1 4.4 1.4 33.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 7.1 6.3 2.7 0.5 0.0 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.6 4.4 1.2 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.2 3.5 0.8 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.4 2.7 3.2 0.7 0.1 7.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 2.8 0.9 0.1 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.0 0.1 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.2 5.4 7.9 10.8 13.1 15.1 14.5 12.3 8.7 4.4 1.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
17-1 99.6% 4.4    4.3 0.1
16-2 93.7% 8.1    7.0 1.1 0.0
15-3 77.2% 9.5    6.4 2.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 47.7% 6.9    3.0 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.8% 2.7    0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.4% 33.4 22.6 8.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 66.1% 59.0% 7.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 17.4%
17-1 4.4% 52.0% 49.9% 2.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.2 2.1 4.3%
16-2 8.7% 43.0% 42.4% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.3 0.7 0.1 4.9 1.0%
15-3 12.3% 36.4% 36.3% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.3 2.5 1.4 0.2 7.8 0.1%
14-4 14.5% 29.7% 29.7% 12.7 0.1 1.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 10.2
13-5 15.1% 24.8% 24.8% 13.0 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.9 0.1 11.3
12-6 13.1% 17.9% 17.9% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 10.8
11-7 10.8% 12.5% 12.5% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.4
10-8 7.9% 8.5% 8.5% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.2
9-9 5.4% 5.1% 5.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.1
8-10 3.2% 2.9% 2.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.1
7-11 1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
6-12 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 24.2% 24.0% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.1 9.4 7.8 3.5 0.7 0.1 75.8 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.6 3.7 3.7 11.1 33.3 22.2 22.2 3.7