Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.6#336
Expected Predictive Rating-22.6#364
Pace64.3#317
Improvement-1.4#319

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#301
First Shot-0.8#210
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#345
Layup/Dunks+1.5#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#136
Freethrows-0.8#225
Improvement-0.8#300

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#347
First Shot-4.2#298
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#301
Layups/Dunks-5.1#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#33
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#322
Freethrows+3.1#44
Improvement-0.6#272
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.3% 2.4% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 11.9% 15.5% 9.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 24.8% 19.5% 28.6%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Home) - 41.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 46 - 117 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 50   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-84 3%     0 - 1 -6.5 +3.9 -11.4
  Nov 09, 2024 344   VMI L 71-76 68%     0 - 2 -20.4 -7.6 -12.8
  Nov 13, 2024 322   Southern Indiana L 69-71 56%     0 - 3 -14.0 -7.4 -6.7
  Nov 16, 2024 196   @ Marshall L 62-83 13%     0 - 4 -19.5 -9.9 -9.7
  Nov 19, 2024 46   @ Louisville L 68-100 3%     0 - 5 -19.1 -2.4 -15.1
  Nov 23, 2024 262   Bowling Green L 70-72 42%    
  Nov 30, 2024 203   @ Northern Kentucky L 61-73 14%    
  Dec 04, 2024 258   @ Western Carolina L 63-72 22%    
  Dec 14, 2024 280   Ball St. L 69-70 45%    
  Dec 19, 2024 182   @ Wyoming L 64-76 13%    
  Dec 21, 2024 68   @ Colorado L 59-81 2%    
  Jan 02, 2025 186   @ North Alabama L 66-78 14%    
  Jan 04, 2025 340   @ Central Arkansas L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 09, 2025 187   Jacksonville L 63-69 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 177   North Florida L 71-78 27%    
  Jan 16, 2025 152   Lipscomb L 68-76 24%    
  Jan 18, 2025 199   @ Eastern Kentucky L 67-79 15%    
  Jan 23, 2025 218   Florida Gulf Coast L 63-68 33%    
  Jan 25, 2025 327   Stetson W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 30, 2025 238   @ Austin Peay L 62-72 20%    
  Feb 01, 2025 152   @ Lipscomb L 65-79 11%    
  Feb 06, 2025 177   @ North Florida L 68-81 13%    
  Feb 08, 2025 187   @ Jacksonville L 60-72 14%    
  Feb 13, 2025 297   Queens L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 353   West Georgia W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 18, 2025 238   Austin Peay L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 20, 2025 199   Eastern Kentucky L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 24, 2025 327   @ Stetson L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 26, 2025 218   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 60-71 17%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.9 0.1 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.4 1.7 0.1 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.7 6.5 3.9 0.7 0.0 15.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 5.7 7.2 4.1 0.7 0.0 19.3 10th
11th 0.4 2.7 6.6 7.1 3.2 0.6 0.1 20.7 11th
12th 1.0 3.4 5.2 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 15.1 12th
Total 1.0 3.8 8.0 12.0 15.0 14.8 14.0 11.2 8.2 5.5 3.3 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 64.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 24.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 9.4% 9.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.4% 7.8% 7.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.9% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.1 0.8
11-7 1.7% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
10-8 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 3.2
9-9 5.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.4
8-10 8.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.1
7-11 11.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.2
6-12 14.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-13 14.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.8
4-14 15.0% 15.0
3-15 12.0% 12.0
2-16 8.0% 8.0
1-17 3.8% 3.8
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%