Bradley
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.4#95
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#141
Pace66.1#270
Improvement-0.9#281

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#103
First Shot+4.4#63
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#261
Layup/Dunks-1.4#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#95
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#31
Freethrows-1.9#276
Improvement-0.5#255

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#98
First Shot+3.1#89
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#212
Layups/Dunks+1.1#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#146
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#59
Freethrows-2.7#313
Improvement-0.4#244
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.5% 23.6% 16.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 1.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.0 11.8 12.5
.500 or above 92.0% 94.9% 84.8%
.500 or above in Conference 88.2% 90.3% 82.9%
Conference Champion 28.2% 31.2% 20.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round21.3% 23.4% 16.1%
Second Round5.4% 6.2% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.8% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Neutral) - 71.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 38 - 410 - 9
Quad 411 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 320   Southeast Missouri St. W 88-60 94%     1 - 0 +16.1 +8.8 +7.0
  Nov 08, 2024 79   @ Washington St. L 74-91 32%     1 - 1 -6.8 +4.7 -11.2
  Nov 12, 2024 273   Texas San Antonio W 85-72 90%     2 - 1 +4.2 +0.3 +3.0
  Nov 16, 2024 325   Northern Illinois W 76-60 94%     3 - 1 +3.9 +2.2 +2.4
  Nov 21, 2024 165   Texas St. W 70-64 71%    
  Dec 03, 2024 132   @ Southern Illinois W 69-68 52%    
  Dec 14, 2024 97   Santa Clara W 74-73 51%    
  Dec 18, 2024 57   San Francisco L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 21, 2024 351   Canisius W 81-60 97%    
  Dec 29, 2024 276   Valparaiso W 78-64 90%    
  Jan 01, 2025 191   @ Indiana St. W 79-75 63%    
  Jan 04, 2025 167   Missouri St. W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 08, 2025 106   Drake W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 156   @ Illinois-Chicago W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 15, 2025 191   Indiana St. W 82-72 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 111   @ Murray St. L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 21, 2025 141   @ Belmont W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 173   Illinois St. W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 29, 2025 156   Illinois-Chicago W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 02, 2025 119   @ Northern Iowa L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 05, 2025 141   Belmont W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 299   @ Evansville W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 12, 2025 132   Southern Illinois W 72-65 71%    
  Feb 16, 2025 106   @ Drake L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 19, 2025 173   @ Illinois St. W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 111   Murray St. W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 26, 2025 276   @ Valparaiso W 75-67 76%    
  Mar 02, 2025 119   Northern Iowa W 72-67 67%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.9 7.2 6.7 4.5 2.2 0.6 28.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.9 5.6 2.8 0.8 0.1 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.5 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 3.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 3.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.9 8.9 10.8 12.2 12.5 11.7 10.2 7.5 4.6 2.2 0.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2 0.0
18-2 97.9% 4.5    4.3 0.3
17-3 89.6% 6.7    5.5 1.1 0.1
16-4 70.5% 7.2    4.8 2.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 41.8% 4.9    2.1 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 14.6% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.2% 28.2 19.7 6.6 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 83.5% 65.2% 18.3% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 52.5%
19-1 2.2% 62.7% 53.3% 9.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 20.3%
18-2 4.6% 47.2% 43.4% 3.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.4 6.7%
17-3 7.5% 41.3% 40.3% 1.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.4 1.6%
16-4 10.2% 33.4% 33.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.8 0.3%
15-5 11.7% 26.9% 26.9% 12.2 0.2 2.0 0.8 0.1 8.6
14-6 12.5% 21.9% 21.9% 12.5 0.1 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 9.8
13-7 12.2% 18.1% 18.1% 12.8 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 10.0
12-8 10.8% 12.9% 12.9% 13.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.4
11-9 8.9% 8.8% 8.8% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 8.1
10-10 6.9% 5.4% 5.4% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.6
9-11 4.7% 4.3% 4.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.5
8-12 3.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
7-13 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
6-14 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-17 0.1% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 21.5% 20.9% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 3.4 9.6 5.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 78.5 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.1 6.8 8.1 18.9 28.4 17.6 16.2 1.4 1.4 1.4