Bradley
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#79
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#63
Pace65.9#262
Improvement+1.4#93

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#55
First Shot+5.8#42
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#229
Layup/Dunks-2.5#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.1#6
Freethrows-0.8#235
Improvement-0.6#233

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#112
First Shot+4.1#64
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#320
Layups/Dunks+0.6#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#35
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#64
Freethrows-1.6#291
Improvement+1.9#45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.4% 25.6% 16.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.5 11.5 12.0
.500 or above 99.6% 99.6% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 96.4% 96.4% 92.6%
Conference Champion 32.9% 33.1% 22.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
First Round25.0% 25.2% 16.8%
Second Round6.8% 6.9% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 1.9% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 33 - 5
Quad 311 - 314 - 8
Quad 410 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 289   Southeast Missouri St. W 88-60 93%     1 - 0 +18.2 +11.0 +6.9
  Nov 08, 2024 77   @ Washington St. L 74-91 38%     1 - 1 -6.9 +5.4 -11.9
  Nov 12, 2024 230   Texas San Antonio W 85-72 89%     2 - 1 +6.4 +1.2 +4.3
  Nov 16, 2024 346   Northern Illinois W 76-60 97%     3 - 1 +1.0 +0.6 +1.1
  Nov 21, 2024 139   Texas St. W 82-68 72%     4 - 1 +15.1 +11.4 +4.1
  Nov 22, 2024 154   Wright St. W 77-74 75%     5 - 1 +3.1 +11.8 -8.3
  Nov 24, 2024 131   Middle Tennessee W 80-69 70%     6 - 1 +12.7 +15.3 -1.7
  Dec 03, 2024 168   @ Southern Illinois W 83-60 67%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +25.4 +15.3 +10.7
  Dec 14, 2024 72   Santa Clara L 74-84 48%     7 - 2 -2.4 +9.2 -12.3
  Dec 18, 2024 59   San Francisco W 66-64 53%     8 - 2 +8.3 -3.5 +11.8
  Dec 21, 2024 350   Canisius W 83-61 98%    
  Dec 29, 2024 226   Valparaiso W 82-68 90%    
  Jan 01, 2025 150   @ Indiana St. W 81-77 63%    
  Jan 04, 2025 194   Missouri St. W 75-64 86%    
  Jan 08, 2025 67   Drake W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 199   @ Illinois-Chicago W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 15, 2025 150   Indiana St. W 84-74 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 124   @ Murray St. W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 21, 2025 133   @ Belmont W 80-78 59%    
  Jan 25, 2025 153   Illinois St. W 76-66 82%    
  Jan 29, 2025 199   Illinois-Chicago W 80-68 85%    
  Feb 02, 2025 98   @ Northern Iowa L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 05, 2025 133   Belmont W 83-75 78%    
  Feb 08, 2025 290   @ Evansville W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 12, 2025 168   Southern Illinois W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 16, 2025 67   @ Drake L 64-68 35%    
  Feb 19, 2025 153   @ Illinois St. W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 124   Murray St. W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 26, 2025 226   @ Valparaiso W 79-71 74%    
  Mar 02, 2025 98   Northern Iowa W 74-69 66%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.8 8.2 8.9 6.1 2.6 0.6 32.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.0 7.5 8.6 5.5 1.8 0.2 27.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.5 5.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 17.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.8 6.3 9.2 12.7 14.8 15.4 14.0 10.7 6.3 2.6 0.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.6    2.5 0.1
18-2 96.4% 6.1    5.4 0.7
17-3 82.7% 8.9    6.7 2.1 0.1
16-4 59.1% 8.2    4.9 2.9 0.4 0.0
15-5 31.4% 4.8    1.9 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.0% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.9% 32.9 22.4 8.7 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 82.9% 55.0% 27.9% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 61.9%
19-1 2.6% 62.9% 48.2% 14.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 28.3%
18-2 6.3% 47.3% 41.6% 5.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.8 0.6 3.3 9.7%
17-3 10.7% 39.5% 38.0% 1.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 1.8 0.0 6.5 2.5%
16-4 14.0% 30.9% 30.5% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 1.6 2.6 0.1 9.7 0.4%
15-5 15.4% 27.0% 26.9% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.9 3.0 0.3 11.2 0.1%
14-6 14.8% 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 12.0 0.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.5 0.0%
13-7 12.7% 16.8% 16.8% 12.2 0.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 10.6
12-8 9.2% 12.9% 12.9% 12.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 8.0
11-9 6.3% 9.9% 9.9% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 5.7
10-10 3.8% 5.6% 5.6% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.6
9-11 2.0% 4.1% 4.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
8-12 1.0% 5.1% 5.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14 0.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 25.4% 24.3% 1.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 7.6 13.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 74.6 1.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 5.4 0.6 3.9 4.5 24.7 26.0 19.5 7.1 4.5 3.9 4.5 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 68.6% 9.1 2.0 5.9 17.6 17.6 11.8 9.8 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 75.6% 9.9 2.4 7.3 12.2 26.8 26.8