Cincinnati
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.1#18
Expected Predictive Rating+8.8#62
Pace68.1#220
Improvement-0.2#194

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#24
First Shot+5.3#45
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#69
Layup/Dunks+9.9#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#125
Freethrows-5.6#354
Improvement+0.0#172

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#24
First Shot+7.1#20
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#218
Layups/Dunks-0.8#200
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#255
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#56
Freethrows+4.8#11
Improvement-0.2#225
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.3% 5.2% 1.9%
Top 2 Seed 10.7% 12.7% 5.1%
Top 4 Seed 27.9% 31.8% 17.0%
Top 6 Seed 46.7% 51.7% 32.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.1% 83.5% 66.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 77.8% 82.3% 65.5%
Average Seed 5.8 5.6 6.5
.500 or above 93.6% 96.2% 86.1%
.500 or above in Conference 74.0% 77.5% 64.0%
Conference Champion 7.7% 8.8% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.1% 2.4%
First Four4.0% 3.6% 5.0%
First Round77.2% 81.8% 64.4%
Second Round55.3% 59.8% 42.6%
Sweet Sixteen27.8% 30.6% 19.8%
Elite Eight12.9% 14.5% 8.6%
Final Four5.9% 6.7% 3.5%
Championship Game2.5% 2.9% 1.4%
National Champion1.1% 1.2% 0.5%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Away) - 73.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 8
Quad 27 - 213 - 10
Quad 33 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 109-54 99%     1 - 0 +35.8 +17.7 +14.7
  Nov 08, 2024 279   Morehead St. W 83-56 97%     2 - 0 +17.9 +17.9 +3.3
  Nov 15, 2024 220   Nicholls St. W 86-49 96%     3 - 0 +31.0 +16.7 +16.9
  Nov 19, 2024 201   @ Northern Kentucky W 76-60 89%     4 - 0 +17.0 +12.8 +5.5
  Nov 23, 2024 106   @ Georgia Tech W 81-74 74%    
  Nov 27, 2024 282   Alabama St. W 81-58 98%    
  Dec 03, 2024 69   @ Villanova W 73-70 61%    
  Dec 08, 2024 232   Howard W 83-63 97%    
  Dec 14, 2024 36   Xavier W 78-73 69%    
  Dec 20, 2024 64   Dayton W 73-67 69%    
  Dec 22, 2024 235   Grambling St. W 78-57 97%    
  Dec 30, 2024 66   @ Kansas St. W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 04, 2025 13   Arizona W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 07, 2025 11   @ Baylor L 69-74 31%    
  Jan 11, 2025 6   Kansas L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 15, 2025 70   @ Colorado W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 53   Arizona St. W 77-69 75%    
  Jan 21, 2025 14   Texas Tech W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 34   @ BYU L 75-76 47%    
  Jan 28, 2025 54   @ Utah W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 02, 2025 76   West Virginia W 78-68 79%    
  Feb 05, 2025 71   @ Central Florida W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 34   BYU W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 11, 2025 54   Utah W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 12   @ Iowa St. L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 19, 2025 76   @ West Virginia W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 60   TCU W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 25, 2025 11   Baylor W 72-71 51%    
  Mar 01, 2025 4   @ Houston L 63-71 23%    
  Mar 05, 2025 66   Kansas St. W 75-66 77%    
  Mar 08, 2025 86   @ Oklahoma St. W 77-73 65%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 7.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.5 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.2 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.2 3rd
4th 0.3 2.3 4.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.6 3.3 0.7 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.0 3.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.9 1.2 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 3.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.8 0.9 0.1 3.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.2 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.7 10.0 11.8 12.2 11.4 10.0 7.8 5.5 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.5% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 89.4% 1.3    1.0 0.2 0.0
17-3 69.6% 2.3    1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
16-4 40.2% 2.2    0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 14.4% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 4.1 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 44.2% 55.8% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3% 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.4% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.2% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 1.9 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.5% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 2.5 1.0 1.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.8% 100.0% 14.8% 85.2% 3.3 0.6 1.7 2.4 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.0% 99.9% 9.5% 90.4% 4.3 0.2 0.7 2.1 2.8 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 11.4% 99.6% 6.3% 93.3% 5.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.9 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-8 12.2% 98.6% 3.8% 94.8% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 2.1 2.8 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.5%
11-9 11.8% 94.4% 2.3% 92.2% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.4 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.7 94.3%
10-10 10.0% 84.9% 1.2% 83.7% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.0 1.6 0.9 0.0 1.5 84.7%
9-11 8.7% 60.1% 0.9% 59.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.6 0.2 3.5 59.7%
8-12 6.6% 28.4% 0.4% 28.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.7 28.2%
7-13 4.7% 9.0% 0.2% 8.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.2 8.9%
6-14 3.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.8%
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 79.1% 6.0% 73.1% 5.8 4.3 6.4 8.3 8.9 9.4 9.4 8.9 7.8 6.3 5.0 4.1 0.5 0.0 20.9 77.8%