College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#121
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#72
Pace74.4#58
Improvement+0.4#156

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#133
First Shot+3.0#91
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#277
Layup/Dunks-1.0#214
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#148
Freethrows+0.8#130
Improvement-0.3#201

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#137
First Shot+0.4#160
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#119
Layups/Dunks-0.9#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#227
Freethrows+1.9#61
Improvement+0.7#135
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.1% 26.4% 20.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.5 13.0
.500 or above 98.1% 99.6% 97.5%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 95.4% 91.6%
Conference Champion 30.8% 37.7% 28.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round22.0% 26.4% 20.4%
Second Round2.8% 3.8% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Neutral) - 27.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 32 - 3
Quad 36 - 48 - 7
Quad 413 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 168   Southern Illinois W 90-80 62%     1 - 0 +9.4 +9.4 -1.0
  Nov 08, 2024 180   South Florida W 86-71 74%     2 - 0 +11.0 -1.0 +9.9
  Nov 15, 2024 85   Florida Atlantic W 119-116 2OT 46%     3 - 0 +6.5 +15.8 -10.0
  Nov 17, 2024 81   Liberty L 47-68 44%     3 - 1 -17.0 -19.2 +0.7
  Nov 20, 2024 355   @ The Citadel W 76-61 87%     4 - 1 +5.1 +2.5 +3.3
  Nov 24, 2024 99   @ Rhode Island L 53-91 28%     4 - 2 -29.5 -18.8 -8.4
  Nov 27, 2024 214   Northern Kentucky W 79-64 78%     5 - 2 +9.5 +7.6 +2.3
  Dec 10, 2024 96   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-75 28%     6 - 2 +11.6 +5.3 +6.1
  Dec 16, 2024 155   Wofford W 77-67 70%     7 - 2 +7.0 +4.7 +2.9
  Dec 22, 2024 65   Oregon St. L 68-74 28%    
  Jan 02, 2025 266   Hampton W 77-66 85%    
  Jan 04, 2025 213   Towson W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 09, 2025 151   @ Hofstra L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 272   @ Monmouth W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 16, 2025 295   @ Campbell W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 160   Northeastern W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 23, 2025 134   UNC Wilmington W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 179   @ Elon W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 30, 2025 307   Stony Brook W 82-68 89%    
  Feb 01, 2025 222   @ William & Mary W 85-82 59%    
  Feb 06, 2025 321   N.C. A&T W 89-74 91%    
  Feb 08, 2025 179   Elon W 77-71 72%    
  Feb 13, 2025 134   @ UNC Wilmington L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 321   @ N.C. A&T W 86-77 78%    
  Feb 20, 2025 160   @ Northeastern L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 146   @ Drexel L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 27, 2025 219   Delaware W 84-76 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 295   Campbell W 79-66 87%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.8 8.1 8.9 5.9 2.7 0.6 30.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.1 7.1 5.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 6.4 3.6 0.7 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.0 3.7 0.6 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.4 3.4 0.5 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.3 0.8 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.8 6.3 9.4 12.7 15.4 15.2 13.9 10.4 6.1 2.7 0.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.6% 2.7    2.6 0.1
16-2 97.2% 5.9    5.4 0.5 0.0
15-3 86.0% 8.9    6.6 2.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 58.3% 8.1    4.0 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.2% 3.8    0.9 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.7    0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.8% 30.8 20.2 7.7 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 56.4% 55.7% 0.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.5%
17-1 2.7% 46.0% 45.7% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 1.4 0.6%
16-2 6.1% 41.4% 41.4% 12.2 0.0 0.2 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.6
15-3 10.4% 35.8% 35.8% 12.5 0.1 1.9 1.6 0.2 6.7
14-4 13.9% 29.7% 29.7% 12.8 0.0 1.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 9.8
13-5 15.2% 25.0% 25.0% 13.1 0.8 2.2 0.8 0.1 11.4
12-6 15.4% 19.2% 19.2% 13.3 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.1 12.4
11-7 12.7% 13.9% 13.9% 13.6 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 11.0
10-8 9.4% 8.8% 8.8% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 8.5
9-9 6.3% 6.9% 6.9% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.9
8-10 3.8% 5.7% 5.7% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.6
7-11 2.0% 2.8% 2.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
6-12 1.0% 3.4% 3.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.1% 22.0% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 7.2 9.3 4.0 0.7 0.0 77.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.0 4.3 8.6 15.7 11.4 15.7 10.0 27.1 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%