College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#112
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#61
Pace75.2#54
Improvement-2.5#356

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#98
First Shot+2.1#111
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#127
Layup/Dunks-3.0#278
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#56
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#148
Freethrows+1.6#108
Improvement-1.7#350

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#144
First Shot-0.3#185
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#109
Layups/Dunks-0.7#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#163
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#183
Freethrows-0.1#193
Improvement-0.8#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.1% 25.8% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.5 12.2 12.7
.500 or above 94.7% 98.1% 92.4%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 95.2% 90.9%
Conference Champion 30.3% 36.5% 26.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round21.9% 25.6% 19.6%
Second Round3.9% 5.2% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Away) - 39.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 3
Quad 37 - 49 - 8
Quad 411 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 132   Southern Illinois W 90-80 57%     1 - 0 +11.9 +10.2 +0.6
  Nov 08, 2024 120   South Florida W 86-71 64%     2 - 0 +15.0 +2.3 +10.7
  Nov 15, 2024 73   Florida Atlantic W 119-116 2OT 46%     3 - 0 +7.8 +16.3 -9.2
  Nov 17, 2024 80   Liberty L 47-68 49%     3 - 1 -16.8 -18.3 +0.0
  Nov 20, 2024 317   @ The Citadel W 76-61 82%     4 - 1 +9.3 +5.2 +4.8
  Nov 24, 2024 113   @ Rhode Island L 81-84 39%    
  Nov 27, 2024 203   Northern Kentucky W 78-69 80%    
  Dec 10, 2024 99   @ Saint Joseph's L 75-79 35%    
  Dec 16, 2024 206   Wofford W 79-70 79%    
  Dec 22, 2024 96   Oregon St. L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 02, 2025 307   Hampton W 79-64 91%    
  Jan 04, 2025 129   Towson W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 09, 2025 134   @ Hofstra L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 265   @ Monmouth W 81-75 71%    
  Jan 16, 2025 257   @ Campbell W 77-71 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 149   Northeastern W 79-73 71%    
  Jan 23, 2025 150   UNC Wilmington W 81-75 71%    
  Jan 25, 2025 207   @ Elon W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 302   Stony Brook W 83-69 89%    
  Feb 01, 2025 210   @ William & Mary W 84-81 61%    
  Feb 06, 2025 285   N.C. A&T W 88-75 88%    
  Feb 08, 2025 207   Elon W 81-72 79%    
  Feb 13, 2025 150   @ UNC Wilmington W 79-78 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 285   @ N.C. A&T W 85-78 73%    
  Feb 20, 2025 149   @ Northeastern W 76-75 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 144   @ Drexel L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 27, 2025 216   Delaware W 83-73 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 257   Campbell W 80-68 84%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.5 8.9 7.2 3.7 1.1 30.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.6 6.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 5.6 4.5 1.2 0.1 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.4 4.1 1.0 0.1 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.5 1.0 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.3 1.0 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.7 8.7 11.3 13.9 14.7 14.2 11.5 7.8 3.7 1.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 99.5% 3.7    3.6 0.1
16-2 93.5% 7.2    6.2 1.0 0.0
15-3 77.1% 8.9    5.8 2.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 46.0% 6.5    2.7 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.9% 2.5    0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.3% 30.3 19.8 7.8 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 62.5% 55.1% 7.4% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 16.4%
17-1 3.7% 51.5% 49.1% 2.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.8 4.7%
16-2 7.8% 42.3% 41.8% 0.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.5 0.9%
15-3 11.5% 35.2% 35.1% 0.1% 12.3 0.3 2.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.4 0.1%
14-4 14.2% 28.7% 28.7% 12.6 0.1 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.1
13-5 14.7% 22.4% 22.4% 12.9 0.0 0.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 11.4
12-6 13.9% 17.1% 17.1% 13.2 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.5
11-7 11.3% 11.4% 11.4% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.0
10-8 8.7% 7.4% 7.4% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.1
9-9 5.7% 4.7% 4.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.5
8-10 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.5
7-11 2.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
6-12 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 22.1% 21.8% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.1 8.9 7.1 2.8 0.6 0.1 78.0 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.5 2.0 5.9 19.6 9.8 21.6 3.9 11.8 11.8 2.0 11.8