Davidson
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#122
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#74
Pace65.1#279
Improvement+0.8#132

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#102
First Shot+1.5#131
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#107
Layup/Dunks+0.1#180
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#278
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#93
Freethrows+0.5#147
Improvement-1.3#280

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#174
First Shot-0.9#199
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#122
Layups/Dunks-0.2#178
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#237
Freethrows+0.6#139
Improvement+2.1#38
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 2.8% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.4
.500 or above 85.3% 87.2% 68.3%
.500 or above in Conference 56.0% 57.4% 44.1%
Conference Champion 2.2% 2.3% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 3.7% 6.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.6% 2.7% 1.4%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 89.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 43 - 8
Quad 36 - 58 - 12
Quad 410 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 289   @ Bowling Green W 91-85 73%     1 - 0 +2.1 +8.2 -6.6
  Nov 16, 2024 142   East Tennessee St. W 76-70 67%     2 - 0 +3.9 +10.2 -5.6
  Nov 22, 2024 344   VMI W 93-66 94%     3 - 0 +12.4 +11.1 +0.8
  Nov 27, 2024 11   Arizona L 71-104 11%     3 - 1 -16.9 -1.5 -11.8
  Nov 28, 2024 75   Providence W 69-58 31%     4 - 1 +18.5 +11.2 +8.9
  Nov 29, 2024 4   Gonzaga L 65-90 6%     4 - 2 -5.1 -2.2 -2.3
  Dec 06, 2024 298   Charleston Southern W 73-72 88%     5 - 2 -9.4 -2.7 -6.7
  Dec 10, 2024 193   Charlotte W 75-71 75%     6 - 2 -0.6 +17.4 -16.9
  Dec 14, 2024 321   Detroit Mercy W 86-51 91%     7 - 2 +23.0 +11.6 +12.8
  Dec 18, 2024 124   @ Temple L 61-62 39%     7 - 3 +4.3 -1.4 +5.5
  Dec 21, 2024 263   Bethune-Cookman W 76-63 85%     8 - 3 +4.6 +3.0 +1.8
  Dec 28, 2024 305   Eastern Michigan W 79-66 90%    
  Dec 31, 2024 82   @ George Mason L 64-72 24%    
  Jan 04, 2025 163   Duquesne W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 11, 2025 178   Fordham W 77-71 73%    
  Jan 15, 2025 165   @ La Salle L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 18, 2025 93   @ Rhode Island L 72-78 29%    
  Jan 21, 2025 86   Saint Joseph's L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 216   @ Richmond W 72-70 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 82   George Mason L 67-69 45%    
  Feb 04, 2025 48   @ Dayton L 65-76 15%    
  Feb 08, 2025 216   Richmond W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 12, 2025 203   @ Massachusetts W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 136   George Washington W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 18, 2025 121   Loyola Chicago W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 178   @ Fordham W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 25, 2025 137   Saint Louis W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 28, 2025 57   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-74 19%    
  Mar 05, 2025 121   @ Loyola Chicago L 70-73 39%    
  Mar 08, 2025 87   St. Bonaventure L 67-68 47%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.2 1.4 0.1 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 5.4 2.3 0.2 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 5.6 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.3 4.8 0.8 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.2 2.5 5.2 1.5 0.0 9.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 8.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.2 0.4 0.0 7.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.7 0.8 0.0 5.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.2 0.1 4.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.1 3.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.4 8.4 11.5 14.1 14.9 13.7 11.1 7.9 4.7 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 88.9% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 67.6% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 32.0% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 46.9% 15.6% 31.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.0%
16-2 0.3% 23.0% 18.3% 4.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.8%
15-3 1.0% 14.5% 12.6% 2.0% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 2.2%
14-4 2.4% 10.2% 10.0% 0.2% 11.4 0.1 0.1 2.2 0.2%
13-5 4.7% 10.2% 10.2% 11.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 4.3
12-6 7.9% 6.4% 6.4% 11.8 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.4
11-7 11.1% 4.0% 4.0% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 10.6
10-8 13.7% 2.4% 2.4% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.4
9-9 14.9% 1.3% 1.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.7
8-10 14.1% 0.8% 0.8% 12.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.0
7-11 11.5% 0.3% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4
6-12 8.4% 0.4% 0.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4
5-13 5.4% 0.2% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 5.4
4-14 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 2.9
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.4 0.1%