Davidson
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#131
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#53
Pace64.3#317
Improvement+0.4#135

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#125
First Shot-1.7#234
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#33
Layup/Dunks+2.1#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#330
Freethrows+1.2#124
Improvement-0.1#194

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#160
First Shot-1.1#214
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#102
Layups/Dunks+0.4#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#184
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#269
Freethrows+0.7#153
Improvement+0.5#109
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 4.1% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.4 11.4 12.6
.500 or above 70.6% 72.4% 38.2%
.500 or above in Conference 50.3% 51.6% 27.5%
Conference Champion 4.2% 4.3% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 7.8% 7.3% 16.5%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round3.7% 3.9% 0.9%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 94.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 58 - 11
Quad 49 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 259   @ Bowling Green W 91-85 66%     1 - 0 +3.8 +8.5 -5.1
  Nov 16, 2024 186   East Tennessee St. W 76-70 73%     2 - 0 +1.7 +8.1 -5.8
  Nov 22, 2024 344   VMI W 82-65 95%    
  Nov 27, 2024 13   Arizona L 69-83 11%    
  Dec 06, 2024 311   Charleston Southern W 77-64 89%    
  Dec 10, 2024 141   Charlotte W 67-64 63%    
  Dec 14, 2024 328   Detroit Mercy W 76-62 90%    
  Dec 18, 2024 114   @ Temple L 67-72 34%    
  Dec 21, 2024 291   Bethune-Cookman W 75-64 85%    
  Dec 28, 2024 287   Eastern Michigan W 72-61 85%    
  Dec 31, 2024 96   @ George Mason L 65-72 29%    
  Jan 04, 2025 215   Duquesne W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 11, 2025 163   Fordham W 72-67 69%    
  Jan 15, 2025 130   @ La Salle L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 112   @ Rhode Island L 73-78 35%    
  Jan 21, 2025 89   Saint Joseph's L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 197   @ Richmond W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 96   George Mason L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 04, 2025 59   @ Dayton L 62-72 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 197   Richmond W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 12, 2025 125   @ Massachusetts L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 15, 2025 144   George Washington W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 18, 2025 105   Loyola Chicago W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 163   @ Fordham L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 25, 2025 102   Saint Louis W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 28, 2025 60   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-74 20%    
  Mar 05, 2025 105   @ Loyola Chicago L 68-73 33%    
  Mar 08, 2025 115   St. Bonaventure W 68-67 55%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 2.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.5 2.2 0.4 7.1 4th
5th 0.3 3.2 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 4.2 1.1 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.4 2.5 0.2 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.4 3.8 0.4 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 4.4 1.2 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 3.7 2.7 0.2 7.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.2 0.6 7.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.6 1.0 0.0 6.9 12th
13th 0.3 1.7 3.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.8 14th
15th 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.2 15th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.8 5.2 7.4 9.5 10.4 12.2 12.2 11.4 9.6 6.9 4.7 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 96.8% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
15-3 74.7% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.1
14-4 42.8% 1.3    0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
13-5 14.7% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 65.5% 43.1% 22.4% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 39.4%
16-2 0.7% 47.4% 21.1% 26.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 33.3%
15-3 1.7% 32.7% 23.9% 8.8% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.1 11.6%
14-4 2.9% 20.9% 16.2% 4.6% 11.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.3 5.5%
13-5 4.7% 12.2% 11.7% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 4.2 0.5%
12-6 6.9% 7.8% 7.7% 0.1% 12.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 6.3 0.2%
11-7 9.6% 4.7% 4.7% 12.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.1
10-8 11.4% 2.4% 2.4% 12.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.2
9-9 12.2% 1.9% 1.9% 12.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.0
8-10 12.2% 1.1% 1.1% 12.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1
7-11 10.4% 0.5% 0.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 10.4
6-12 9.5% 0.3% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 9.5
5-13 7.4% 7.4
4-14 5.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 5.2
3-15 2.8% 2.8
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.9% 3.3% 0.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 96.1 0.6%