Dayton
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#39
Expected Predictive Rating+14.2#33
Pace67.5#229
Improvement+2.6#31

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#26
First Shot+6.9#29
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#138
Layup/Dunks+6.0#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#118
Freethrows-0.1#185
Improvement+2.1#32

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#75
First Shot+0.8#145
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#22
Layups/Dunks+0.9#148
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#103
Freethrows-0.4#212
Improvement+0.5#130
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.8% 5.9% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 12.9% 13.0% 3.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.8% 54.2% 32.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.3% 31.6% 16.3%
Average Seed 8.5 8.5 9.4
.500 or above 99.4% 99.5% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 98.2% 93.8%
Conference Champion 46.5% 46.7% 33.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.6% 5.6% 4.3%
First Round51.0% 51.4% 31.0%
Second Round28.1% 28.4% 11.9%
Sweet Sixteen10.6% 10.7% 4.7%
Elite Eight4.1% 4.1% 2.0%
Final Four1.6% 1.6% 1.2%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 4
Quad 25 - 27 - 6
Quad 39 - 216 - 8
Quad 48 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 339   St. Francis (PA) W 87-57 98%     1 - 0 +16.1 +6.9 +9.0
  Nov 09, 2024 68   Northwestern W 71-66 74%     2 - 0 +10.2 +3.5 +6.7
  Nov 13, 2024 268   Ball St. W 77-69 96%     3 - 0 -0.9 +0.3 -1.2
  Nov 20, 2024 211   New Mexico St. W 74-53 93%     4 - 0 +16.0 +11.7 +7.6
  Nov 25, 2024 11   North Carolina L 90-92 33%     4 - 1 +14.1 +13.2 +1.1
  Nov 26, 2024 8   Iowa St. L 84-89 28%     4 - 2 +12.9 +20.6 -7.8
  Nov 27, 2024 15   Connecticut W 85-67 36%     5 - 2 +33.3 +23.1 +11.7
  Dec 03, 2024 302   Western Michigan W 85-63 98%    
  Dec 07, 2024 287   Lehigh W 86-65 97%    
  Dec 14, 2024 13   Marquette L 74-75 46%    
  Dec 17, 2024 105   UNLV W 76-66 84%    
  Dec 20, 2024 16   Cincinnati L 70-74 37%    
  Dec 31, 2024 134   La Salle W 82-69 88%    
  Jan 04, 2025 140   @ George Washington W 80-73 75%    
  Jan 08, 2025 151   @ Massachusetts W 78-70 78%    
  Jan 15, 2025 85   George Mason W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 84   Loyola Chicago W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 21, 2025 220   @ Duquesne W 75-63 85%    
  Jan 24, 2025 89   Saint Joseph's W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 28, 2025 94   @ St. Bonaventure W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 31, 2025 135   @ Saint Louis W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 04, 2025 123   Davidson W 80-68 87%    
  Feb 07, 2025 62   Virginia Commonwealth W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 12, 2025 195   @ Fordham W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 220   Duquesne W 78-60 94%    
  Feb 21, 2025 84   @ Loyola Chicago W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 88   @ Rhode Island W 79-76 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 185   Richmond W 78-62 92%    
  Mar 04, 2025 135   Saint Louis W 84-71 88%    
  Mar 07, 2025 62   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 70-71 50%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 7.7 13.3 12.6 7.8 2.5 46.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.2 7.7 3.6 0.9 0.0 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.1 5.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.6 1.2 0.1 7.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 2.3 1.1 0.1 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.1 0.1 3.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.4 7.1 10.9 14.9 17.4 17.2 13.5 7.9 2.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
17-1 99.5% 7.8    7.5 0.3 0.0
16-2 92.9% 12.6    10.4 2.1 0.1
15-3 77.6% 13.3    8.5 4.2 0.6 0.0
14-4 44.3% 7.7    3.0 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.5% 2.3    0.4 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 46.5% 46.5 32.4 10.9 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.5% 97.8% 63.7% 34.1% 3.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 93.9%
17-1 7.9% 93.6% 53.0% 40.6% 5.4 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 86.3%
16-2 13.5% 85.3% 46.2% 39.2% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.0 2.0 72.7%
15-3 17.2% 70.8% 38.3% 32.5% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.7 2.9 2.6 0.1 5.0 52.7%
14-4 17.4% 54.5% 34.7% 19.9% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.7 3.9 0.3 7.9 30.4%
13-5 14.9% 39.6% 27.3% 12.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.0 16.9%
12-6 10.9% 26.1% 20.2% 5.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 8.0 7.4%
11-7 7.1% 17.7% 15.2% 2.5% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.4 5.9 2.9%
10-8 4.4% 11.6% 11.1% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 3.9 0.6%
9-9 2.2% 7.5% 7.0% 0.5% 11.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1 0.6%
8-10 1.1% 6.3% 6.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
7-11 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 12.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 13.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 53.8% 32.7% 21.1% 8.5 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.6 6.8 9.1 13.6 2.4 0.0 46.2 31.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 2.0 35.7 39.9 17.5 6.1 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.3 25.0 29.2 39.6 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.9 21.9 9.4 34.4 28.1 6.3