East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#160
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#156
Pace63.3#329
Improvement-0.2#203

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#159
First Shot-2.9#256
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#32
Layup/Dunks-3.1#283
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#299
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#267
Freethrows+5.4#9
Improvement+0.2#142

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#194
First Shot+2.8#91
After Offensive Rebounds-3.7#338
Layups/Dunks+2.3#102
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#190
Freethrows-1.5#260
Improvement-0.4#243
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 1.9% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.4 12.6
.500 or above 48.6% 53.2% 25.3%
.500 or above in Conference 34.7% 37.2% 22.0%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.5% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 12.1% 10.8% 18.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round1.7% 1.9% 0.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Neutral) - 83.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 67 - 13
Quad 48 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 296   Coastal Carolina W 63-59 83%     1 - 0 -6.1 -2.2 -3.1
  Nov 16, 2024 96   George Mason W 78-77 2OT 40%     2 - 0 +3.5 -0.5 +3.9
  Nov 21, 2024 164   Jacksonville St. L 78-86 51%     2 - 1 -8.3 +6.3 -14.7
  Nov 22, 2024 333   Stetson W 76-66 84%    
  Nov 29, 2024 289   N.C. A&T W 79-70 81%    
  Dec 03, 2024 150   UNC Wilmington W 72-70 59%    
  Dec 07, 2024 77   @ South Carolina L 64-75 16%    
  Dec 11, 2024 182   North Alabama W 73-69 66%    
  Dec 17, 2024 276   Florida International W 77-68 79%    
  Dec 21, 2024 218   Gardner-Webb W 74-68 69%    
  Dec 31, 2024 123   @ South Florida L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 05, 2025 66   Florida Atlantic L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 08, 2025 114   Temple L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 32   @ Memphis L 66-81 9%    
  Jan 14, 2025 84   North Texas L 60-64 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 97   @ Wichita St. L 66-75 22%    
  Jan 21, 2025 188   @ Tulsa L 72-74 45%    
  Jan 25, 2025 123   South Florida W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 114   @ Temple L 66-73 27%    
  Feb 05, 2025 170   Rice W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 273   @ Texas San Antonio W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 11, 2025 103   UAB L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 141   @ Charlotte L 62-67 35%    
  Feb 19, 2025 146   @ Tulane L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 23, 2025 273   Texas San Antonio W 78-69 77%    
  Mar 02, 2025 141   Charlotte W 65-64 55%    
  Mar 06, 2025 146   Tulane W 72-70 57%    
  Mar 09, 2025 66   @ Florida Atlantic L 71-82 17%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.6 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.2 6.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.6 1.8 0.2 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.1 3.5 0.5 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.0 1.1 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.3 3.1 5.6 2.0 0.1 11.1 9th
10th 0.3 2.2 5.3 3.1 0.2 11.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.0 3.5 0.6 0.0 11.5 11th
12th 0.6 2.3 3.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.7 12th
13th 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.1 6.9 13th
Total 0.3 0.8 2.5 5.1 7.2 10.6 12.9 13.5 12.4 10.3 8.6 7.0 4.3 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 86.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 55.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1
14-4 37.7% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 28.1% 15.6% 12.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.8%
16-2 0.2% 28.8% 7.6% 21.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.0%
15-3 0.6% 18.7% 14.9% 3.7% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 4.4%
14-4 1.2% 12.7% 12.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0
13-5 2.4% 8.7% 8.7% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
12-6 4.3% 6.2% 6.2% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.0
11-7 7.0% 4.9% 4.9% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.7
10-8 8.6% 2.4% 2.4% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.4
9-9 10.3% 1.4% 1.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.2
8-10 12.4% 0.9% 0.9% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.3
7-11 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 13.5
6-12 12.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.9
5-13 10.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.5
4-14 7.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.2
3-15 5.1% 5.1
2-16 2.5% 2.5
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.3 0.1%