East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#182
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#210
Pace63.3#320
Improvement-1.5#274

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#193
First Shot-1.4#217
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#137
Layup/Dunks+1.4#131
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#326
Freethrows+2.2#63
Improvement-0.7#244

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#179
First Shot-0.7#196
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#142
Layups/Dunks-0.5#186
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#336
Freethrows+1.3#90
Improvement-0.8#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.8% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 40.3% 56.8% 30.5%
.500 or above in Conference 38.9% 55.4% 29.1%
Conference Champion 1.0% 2.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 10.7% 4.2% 14.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.2% 1.8% 0.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Florida (Away) - 37.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 76 - 12
Quad 48 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 277   Coastal Carolina W 63-59 79%     1 - 0 -5.4 -2.4 -2.2
  Nov 16, 2024 82   George Mason W 78-77 2OT 31%     2 - 0 +5.1 +1.7 +3.3
  Nov 21, 2024 152   Jacksonville St. L 78-86 45%     2 - 1 -7.8 +4.1 -12.0
  Nov 22, 2024 348   Stetson W 71-64 85%     3 - 1 -4.9 -6.7 +2.0
  Nov 23, 2024 192   Illinois-Chicago W 72-55 52%     4 - 1 +15.4 +5.0 +12.0
  Nov 29, 2024 324   N.C. A&T W 93-69 85%     5 - 1 +11.8 +15.3 -3.1
  Dec 03, 2024 134   UNC Wilmington L 53-67 52%     5 - 2 -15.4 -20.4 +4.5
  Dec 07, 2024 62   @ South Carolina L 68-75 12%     5 - 3 +4.5 +13.2 -10.0
  Dec 11, 2024 197   North Alabama L 67-74 64%     5 - 4 -11.8 -8.7 -3.1
  Dec 17, 2024 262   Florida International W 75-64 76%     6 - 4 +2.6 -0.2 +2.7
  Dec 21, 2024 229   Gardner-Webb L 79-84 71%     6 - 5 -11.6 +0.0 -11.5
  Dec 31, 2024 169   @ South Florida L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 05, 2025 88   Florida Atlantic L 74-78 34%    
  Jan 08, 2025 124   Temple L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 44   @ Memphis L 66-81 8%    
  Jan 14, 2025 85   North Texas L 58-63 33%    
  Jan 18, 2025 101   @ Wichita St. L 66-75 21%    
  Jan 21, 2025 239   @ Tulsa W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 169   South Florida W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 124   @ Temple L 66-72 28%    
  Feb 05, 2025 186   Rice W 67-64 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 226   @ Texas San Antonio L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 11, 2025 127   UAB L 74-75 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 193   @ Charlotte L 67-69 41%    
  Feb 19, 2025 202   @ Tulane L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 23, 2025 226   Texas San Antonio W 76-70 69%    
  Mar 02, 2025 193   Charlotte W 70-66 63%    
  Mar 06, 2025 202   Tulane W 71-67 64%    
  Mar 09, 2025 88   @ Florida Atlantic L 71-81 17%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 7.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 4.5 1.7 0.2 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.5 2.5 0.2 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.4 3.8 0.5 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 4.3 5.1 0.9 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.2 2.7 5.8 1.8 0.1 10.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.2 2.8 0.2 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 8.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 3.0 0.7 0.0 7.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.0 1.6 0.5 0.0 5.7 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.2 5.7 9.3 12.3 14.5 14.6 13.3 10.5 7.2 4.5 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 87.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 60.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 36.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 8.2% 8.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 15.8% 15.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.0% 8.0% 8.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
13-5 2.1% 7.1% 7.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0
12-6 4.5% 5.4% 5.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.3
11-7 7.2% 3.2% 3.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.0
10-8 10.5% 1.5% 1.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.3
9-9 13.3% 1.0% 1.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.1
8-10 14.6% 0.4% 0.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 14.5
7-11 14.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 14.4
6-12 12.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 12.3
5-13 9.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.3
4-14 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.7
3-15 3.2% 3.2
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 98.8 0.0%