Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#151
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#193
Pace71.1#120
Improvement+0.7#102

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#127
First Shot+2.4#100
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#221
Layup/Dunks+3.1#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#139
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#240
Freethrows+0.6#156
Improvement+0.6#87

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#210
First Shot-1.6#236
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#161
Layups/Dunks+0.1#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#317
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#242
Freethrows+2.6#63
Improvement+0.0#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.5% 22.4% 15.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 89.0% 91.1% 74.2%
.500 or above in Conference 93.9% 94.6% 89.1%
Conference Champion 31.2% 32.5% 22.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.7%
First Round21.0% 21.9% 14.6%
Second Round1.6% 1.8% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 87.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 415 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 207   @ Duquesne W 77-72 49%     1 - 0 +5.7 +0.4 +4.9
  Nov 06, 2024 27   @ Arkansas L 60-76 8%     1 - 1 +0.4 -7.3 +8.6
  Nov 09, 2024 204   Wofford W 78-69 71%     2 - 1 +3.8 +10.8 -5.8
  Nov 12, 2024 141   Belmont L 79-80 58%     2 - 2 -2.6 +4.5 -7.1
  Nov 17, 2024 122   @ Western Kentucky L 61-66 30%     2 - 3 +0.8 -10.5 +11.7
  Nov 19, 2024 10   @ Kentucky L 68-97 5%     2 - 4 -9.1 +1.8 -10.3
  Nov 24, 2024 320   Jackson St. W 81-69 87%    
  Nov 30, 2024 346   @ Alabama A&M W 79-69 82%    
  Dec 03, 2024 168   @ Chattanooga L 74-76 42%    
  Dec 05, 2024 322   Southeast Missouri St. W 83-71 87%    
  Dec 19, 2024 165   @ Middle Tennessee L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 02, 2025 226   @ Jacksonville W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 175   @ North Florida L 78-80 44%    
  Jan 09, 2025 299   Queens W 84-73 83%    
  Jan 11, 2025 353   West Georgia W 83-66 93%    
  Jan 16, 2025 335   @ Bellarmine W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 18, 2025 231   Austin Peay W 75-68 72%    
  Jan 23, 2025 187   @ North Alabama L 76-77 45%    
  Jan 25, 2025 340   @ Central Arkansas W 80-71 78%    
  Jan 30, 2025 199   Eastern Kentucky W 80-75 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 335   Bellarmine W 80-66 89%    
  Feb 05, 2025 353   @ West Georgia W 80-69 82%    
  Feb 08, 2025 299   @ Queens W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 13, 2025 326   Stetson W 81-68 86%    
  Feb 15, 2025 216   Florida Gulf Coast W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 18, 2025 199   @ Eastern Kentucky L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 20, 2025 187   North Alabama W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 24, 2025 231   @ Austin Peay W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 26, 2025 340   Central Arkansas W 83-68 90%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.8 9.4 7.3 3.7 1.0 31.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 7.5 6.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.5 4.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.8 3.7 0.6 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.4 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.0 5.4 8.1 11.4 14.4 15.5 14.8 12.1 7.7 3.7 1.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 99.1% 3.7    3.6 0.1
16-2 95.2% 7.3    6.3 1.1 0.0
15-3 77.7% 9.4    6.1 2.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 46.2% 6.8    3.0 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.8% 2.6    0.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.2% 31.2 20.4 8.2 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 58.5% 58.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-1 3.7% 47.8% 47.8% 12.7 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.9
16-2 7.7% 39.0% 39.0% 13.4 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.2 4.7
15-3 12.1% 33.9% 33.9% 13.9 0.2 1.1 2.0 0.8 0.0 8.0
14-4 14.8% 26.5% 26.5% 14.4 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.5 0.3 10.9
13-5 15.5% 21.0% 21.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.6 12.2
12-6 14.4% 15.9% 15.9% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 12.1
11-7 11.4% 12.3% 12.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 10.0
10-8 8.1% 9.0% 9.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 7.4
9-9 5.4% 6.2% 6.2% 15.8 0.1 0.3 5.1
8-10 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.0
7-11 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.5% 21.5% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 6.3 6.4 3.1 78.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 5.6 7.9 5.6 47.2 28.1 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%