Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#119
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#201
Pace66.4#266
Improvement+0.4#133

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#111
First Shot+6.5#30
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#349
Layup/Dunks+1.7#119
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#88
Freethrows-1.8#275
Improvement+0.0#179

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#143
First Shot-0.1#171
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#123
Layups/Dunks-0.6#189
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#93
Freethrows+1.1#122
Improvement+0.5#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 14.6% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.5 12.2 12.7
.500 or above 74.9% 86.7% 68.3%
.500 or above in Conference 73.4% 80.8% 69.2%
Conference Champion 12.3% 16.5% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.6% 1.9%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round11.6% 14.6% 9.8%
Second Round2.1% 2.8% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Neutral) - 36.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 36 - 58 - 12
Quad 49 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 211   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 87-68 80%     1 - 0 +13.5 +11.9 +2.2
  Nov 10, 2024 56   UC Irvine L 60-80 39%     1 - 1 -14.0 -7.0 -7.1
  Nov 14, 2024 97   @ Wichita St. L 73-79 31%     1 - 2 +2.4 +5.1 -2.7
  Nov 19, 2024 327   Western Illinois W 82-56 92%     2 - 2 +13.8 +13.7 +3.1
  Nov 28, 2024 84   North Texas L 61-65 36%    
  Dec 04, 2024 184   @ Illinois-Chicago W 78-76 56%    
  Dec 07, 2024 326   Northern Illinois W 78-63 92%    
  Dec 13, 2024 260   Nebraska Omaha W 78-66 86%    
  Dec 16, 2024 208   Montana W 76-67 78%    
  Dec 21, 2024 78   Washington St. L 73-77 35%    
  Dec 29, 2024 134   Southern Illinois W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 01, 2025 142   Belmont W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 04, 2025 270   @ Valparaiso W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 08, 2025 110   Murray St. W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 171   @ Illinois St. W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 14, 2025 301   Evansville W 80-66 89%    
  Jan 18, 2025 134   @ Southern Illinois L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 21, 2025 167   Missouri St. W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 25, 2025 181   @ Indiana St. W 78-77 54%    
  Jan 29, 2025 93   @ Drake L 64-70 32%    
  Feb 02, 2025 88   Bradley W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 05, 2025 167   @ Missouri St. W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 171   Illinois St. W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 11, 2025 181   Indiana St. W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 16, 2025 110   @ Murray St. L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 19, 2025 142   @ Belmont L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 23, 2025 93   Drake W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 26, 2025 184   Illinois-Chicago W 81-73 73%    
  Mar 02, 2025 88   @ Bradley L 68-74 31%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.6 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 12.3 1st
2nd 0.3 2.1 4.1 3.8 1.8 0.5 0.1 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.8 3.8 1.1 0.1 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.5 3.6 0.5 0.1 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.2 2.9 0.5 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.8 2.6 0.6 7.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 3.1 5.2 6.7 8.6 10.6 11.7 11.9 11.2 9.5 7.5 5.5 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 95.6% 1.5    1.4 0.1
17-3 85.4% 2.7    2.1 0.5 0.0
16-4 66.2% 3.6    2.2 1.2 0.2
15-5 33.6% 2.5    1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1
14-6 10.5% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 7.7 3.6 1.0 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 48.2% 30.4% 17.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 25.6%
19-1 0.6% 50.8% 43.1% 7.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13.6%
18-2 1.6% 38.3% 36.1% 2.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0 3.4%
17-3 3.1% 34.9% 34.2% 0.7% 11.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 2.0 1.1%
16-4 5.5% 30.2% 30.2% 12.0 0.2 1.2 0.2 3.8
15-5 7.5% 24.4% 24.4% 12.3 0.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 5.7
14-6 9.5% 16.9% 16.9% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.9
13-7 11.2% 12.9% 12.9% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 9.8
12-8 11.9% 9.9% 9.9% 13.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.7
11-9 11.7% 6.7% 6.7% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.9
10-10 10.6% 5.3% 5.3% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 10.0
9-11 8.6% 2.7% 2.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.4
8-12 6.7% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6
7-13 5.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 5.1
6-14 3.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 3.1
5-15 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.6% 11.5% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 4.6 3.6 1.3 0.4 0.2 88.4 0.1%