Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#137
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#195
Pace70.4#140
Improvement-0.4#202

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#69
First Shot+4.9#58
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#237
Layup/Dunks+2.4#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#29
Freethrows+0.2#170
Improvement+0.3#154

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#262
First Shot-1.7#232
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#271
Layups/Dunks-0.4#184
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#319
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#250
Freethrows+2.2#43
Improvement-0.7#239
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.8% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.5 13.0
.500 or above 22.1% 32.0% 13.5%
.500 or above in Conference 31.9% 44.1% 21.2%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.4% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 4.5% 16.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round1.3% 1.8% 0.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fordham (Away) - 46.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 82 - 10
Quad 36 - 68 - 17
Quad 45 - 113 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 72   Santa Clara L 78-85 27%     0 - 1 +0.7 +4.7 -3.7
  Nov 16, 2024 157   Loyola Marymount W 77-71 66%     1 - 1 +3.0 +3.8 -0.8
  Nov 22, 2024 101   Wichita St. L 63-88 37%     1 - 2 -20.3 -13.4 -4.4
  Nov 25, 2024 249   Quinnipiac W 81-67 81%     2 - 2 +6.2 -5.0 +9.4
  Nov 27, 2024 144   Umass Lowell W 93-90 64%     3 - 2 +0.6 +20.6 -19.9
  Dec 02, 2024 309   Jackson St. W 74-66 88%     4 - 2 -3.2 +3.9 -6.7
  Dec 05, 2024 61   @ San Francisco L 61-78 17%     4 - 3 -5.5 -3.6 -2.0
  Dec 08, 2024 361   Chicago St. W 85-62 95%     5 - 3 +5.4 +10.6 -4.1
  Dec 15, 2024 141   @ Illinois St. L 77-81 40%     5 - 4 -0.1 +13.7 -14.2
  Dec 18, 2024 151   Wofford L 71-74 65%     5 - 5 -5.8 +2.0 -8.1
  Dec 22, 2024 107   @ Grand Canyon L 72-73 28%     5 - 6 +6.4 +4.9 +1.4
  Dec 31, 2024 178   @ Fordham L 78-79 47%    
  Jan 03, 2025 86   Saint Joseph's L 76-78 42%    
  Jan 08, 2025 87   St. Bonaventure L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 14, 2025 57   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 68-79 15%    
  Jan 18, 2025 216   @ Richmond W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 22, 2025 165   La Salle W 81-76 67%    
  Jan 25, 2025 136   @ George Washington L 78-81 39%    
  Jan 28, 2025 57   Virginia Commonwealth L 71-76 32%    
  Jan 31, 2025 48   Dayton L 72-78 28%    
  Feb 04, 2025 203   @ Massachusetts W 80-79 51%    
  Feb 07, 2025 86   @ Saint Joseph's L 73-81 23%    
  Feb 11, 2025 82   George Mason L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 14, 2025 121   @ Loyola Chicago L 74-78 35%    
  Feb 22, 2025 93   Rhode Island L 80-81 46%    
  Feb 25, 2025 122   @ Davidson L 74-78 35%    
  Mar 01, 2025 121   Loyola Chicago W 77-75 56%    
  Mar 04, 2025 48   @ Dayton L 69-81 13%    
  Mar 08, 2025 163   Duquesne W 74-69 66%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 3.4 0.9 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 4.3 2.2 0.2 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.2 3.8 0.6 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.3 3.2 5.3 1.3 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.6 2.6 0.2 10.5 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 4.9 4.1 0.6 0.0 10.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.6 1.1 0.0 9.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.4 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.6 14th
15th 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.7 15th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.4 7.5 11.0 13.7 14.7 14.2 11.8 8.8 5.6 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 84.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 46.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 11.6% 9.3% 2.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 2.6%
15-3 0.2% 14.3% 13.3% 1.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2%
14-4 0.6% 12.2% 12.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.6% 9.6% 9.6% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
12-6 3.2% 6.5% 6.5% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0
11-7 5.6% 4.3% 4.3% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.3
10-8 8.8% 2.3% 2.3% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.6
9-9 11.8% 1.5% 1.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.6
8-10 14.2% 0.9% 0.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1
7-11 14.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.1 0.1 0.0 14.7
6-12 13.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 13.7
5-13 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 11.0
4-14 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
3-15 4.4% 4.4
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%