Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#267
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#241
Pace74.4#59
Improvement-0.6#233

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#268
First Shot-4.8#302
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#116
Layup/Dunks-0.8#206
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#125
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#301
Freethrows-0.6#211
Improvement+0.0#187

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#245
First Shot-1.0#203
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#261
Layups/Dunks-2.7#272
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#111
Freethrows-1.2#267
Improvement-0.6#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.9% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 15.2% 20.8% 7.4%
.500 or above in Conference 28.8% 33.0% 23.1%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.4% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 12.9% 10.4% 16.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round1.3% 1.8% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Home) - 58.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 49 - 611 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 265   Bowling Green W 77-68 61%     1 - 0 +0.2 -4.9 +4.6
  Nov 07, 2024 130   @ UAB L 84-98 16%     1 - 1 -9.1 +0.0 -7.5
  Nov 20, 2024 117   @ South Dakota St. L 76-101 14%     1 - 2 -19.1 -8.1 -6.7
  Nov 24, 2024 138   @ Montana St. L 59-79 16%     1 - 3 -15.4 -14.1 -0.6
  Nov 25, 2024 205   Abilene Christian L 74-82 35%     1 - 4 -9.9 +4.5 -14.8
  Nov 30, 2024 193   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 66-65 45%     2 - 4 -3.4 -4.8 +1.5
  Dec 05, 2024 253   Alabama St. W 76-74 58%    
  Dec 10, 2024 222   @ Tulane L 72-78 30%    
  Dec 14, 2024 40   Mississippi L 68-85 6%    
  Dec 17, 2024 299   Lamar W 77-73 65%    
  Dec 21, 2024 182   Marshall L 76-78 43%    
  Jan 02, 2025 116   @ James Madison L 71-83 14%    
  Jan 04, 2025 317   @ Old Dominion W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 09, 2025 332   Louisiana Monroe W 76-69 75%    
  Jan 11, 2025 145   Texas St. L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 15, 2025 214   @ South Alabama L 67-74 28%    
  Jan 18, 2025 145   @ Texas St. L 67-77 20%    
  Jan 23, 2025 126   @ Troy L 69-80 16%    
  Jan 25, 2025 263   @ Louisiana L 76-79 39%    
  Jan 29, 2025 121   Arkansas St. L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 224   Georgia Southern W 80-79 51%    
  Feb 05, 2025 164   @ Appalachian St. L 65-74 22%    
  Feb 12, 2025 121   @ Arkansas St. L 69-80 16%    
  Feb 15, 2025 332   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 20, 2025 286   Coastal Carolina W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 263   Louisiana W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 26, 2025 214   South Alabama L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 28, 2025 126   Troy L 72-77 33%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.9 0.1 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 4.1 1.2 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 1.5 5.0 2.7 0.2 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.5 4.4 0.7 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 4.1 5.2 1.4 0.0 11.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 12.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.0 2.8 0.2 11.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.4 4.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.9 13th
14th 0.2 1.1 2.2 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.3 14th
Total 0.2 1.1 2.7 5.5 8.7 12.0 14.0 13.8 13.3 10.6 7.5 5.0 3.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 90.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 80.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 56.0% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 22.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 18.6% 18.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 17.6% 17.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 17.5% 17.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.5% 12.8% 12.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
12-6 3.2% 6.3% 6.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0
11-7 5.0% 6.7% 6.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.7
10-8 7.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.3
9-9 10.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.5
8-10 13.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.2
7-11 13.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 13.7
6-12 14.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.0
5-13 12.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.0
4-14 8.7% 8.7
3-15 5.5% 5.5
2-16 2.7% 2.7
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%