USC
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#76
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#99
Pace69.6#160
Improvement+4.3#15

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#86
First Shot+6.5#34
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#327
Layup/Dunks+3.9#54
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#34
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#251
Freethrows+1.8#82
Improvement+0.8#112

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#79
First Shot+2.0#115
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#54
Layups/Dunks-0.4#177
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#116
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#132
Freethrows+0.0#188
Improvement+3.4#4
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 11.8% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.8% 11.5% 3.9%
Average Seed 9.3 9.3 9.7
.500 or above 45.6% 48.0% 22.3%
.500 or above in Conference 19.5% 20.3% 11.6%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 9.9% 15.4%
First Four2.8% 2.9% 1.4%
First Round9.7% 10.3% 3.4%
Second Round4.3% 4.6% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 90.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 11
Quad 23 - 46 - 15
Quad 33 - 19 - 16
Quad 46 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 183   Chattanooga W 77-51 86%     1 - 0 +21.9 +4.5 +18.9
  Nov 07, 2024 251   Idaho St. W 75-69 92%     2 - 0 -2.0 +4.2 -5.9
  Nov 13, 2024 145   Texas Arlington W 98-95 83%     3 - 0 +0.5 +9.6 -9.5
  Nov 17, 2024 118   California L 66-71 77%     3 - 1 -5.3 -6.1 +0.5
  Nov 20, 2024 189   San Jose St. W 82-68 86%     4 - 1 +9.7 +13.3 -2.2
  Nov 24, 2024 308   Grambling St. W 80-69 95%     5 - 1 -0.1 +5.4 -5.0
  Nov 28, 2024 43   St. Mary's L 36-71 37%     5 - 2 -24.2 -26.4 -2.5
  Nov 29, 2024 70   New Mexico L 73-83 47%     5 - 3 -1.8 +1.6 -3.1
  Dec 04, 2024 23   Oregon L 60-68 36%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +3.0 -6.4 +9.2
  Dec 07, 2024 82   @ Washington W 85-61 41%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +33.8 +19.5 +14.7
  Dec 15, 2024 141   Montana St. W 89-63 82%     7 - 4 +23.9 +7.4 +14.6
  Dec 18, 2024 158   Cal St. Northridge W 90-69 84%     8 - 4 +17.9 +14.3 +3.0
  Dec 22, 2024 232   Southern W 78-64 91%    
  Jan 04, 2025 21   Michigan L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 08, 2025 45   @ Indiana L 73-79 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 16   @ Illinois L 70-81 16%    
  Jan 14, 2025 42   Iowa L 79-80 49%    
  Jan 18, 2025 36   Wisconsin L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 22, 2025 53   @ Nebraska L 70-76 31%    
  Jan 27, 2025 14   UCLA L 65-70 33%    
  Feb 01, 2025 15   Michigan St. L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 04, 2025 61   @ Northwestern L 64-69 33%    
  Feb 07, 2025 20   @ Purdue L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 11, 2025 30   Penn St. L 76-78 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 114   Minnesota W 70-63 74%    
  Feb 20, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 69-80 17%    
  Feb 23, 2025 64   @ Rutgers L 73-77 35%    
  Feb 26, 2025 38   Ohio St. L 73-74 46%    
  Mar 01, 2025 23   @ Oregon L 68-78 19%    
  Mar 05, 2025 82   Washington W 75-71 63%    
  Mar 08, 2025 14   @ UCLA L 62-73 17%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 1.3 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.2 2.1 0.1 5.9 10th
11th 0.1 2.0 4.0 0.6 0.0 6.7 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 4.6 2.4 0.1 8.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.6 0.8 0.0 9.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.7 2.3 0.1 11.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.5 3.8 0.4 12.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.9 4.6 1.1 0.0 12.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.8 3.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.5 17th
18th 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 5.3 18th
Total 0.2 1.3 3.7 7.4 11.3 14.8 15.5 14.4 12.0 8.7 5.1 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 91.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 46.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 14.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.2% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.6% 99.0% 7.1% 91.9% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9%
13-7 1.6% 90.4% 4.1% 86.2% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 89.9%
12-8 3.1% 76.7% 1.5% 75.2% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.7 76.4%
11-9 5.1% 55.8% 0.8% 55.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.3 55.5%
10-10 8.7% 28.4% 0.5% 27.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.1 6.3 28.0%
9-11 12.0% 7.5% 0.3% 7.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 11.1 7.2%
8-12 14.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.3 0.7%
7-13 15.5% 0.1% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 15.5
6-14 14.8% 14.8
5-15 11.3% 11.3
4-16 7.4% 7.4
3-17 3.7% 3.7
2-18 1.3% 1.3
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 11.1% 0.4% 10.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.8 2.6 0.3 88.9 10.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%