USC
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#78
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#127
Pace69.7#166
Improvement-2.3#351

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#47
First Shot+7.6#23
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#287
Layup/Dunks+3.2#83
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#8
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#149
Freethrows-2.1#284
Improvement+0.0#168

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#123
First Shot-0.3#184
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#61
Layups/Dunks+1.0#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#285
Freethrows-1.1#247
Improvement-2.3#356
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 2.7% 2.9% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.6% 18.7% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.9% 18.0% 7.0%
Average Seed 8.7 8.7 9.0
.500 or above 53.3% 56.2% 27.1%
.500 or above in Conference 24.6% 25.7% 13.9%
Conference Champion 0.9% 0.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 17.4% 16.4% 26.5%
First Four3.1% 3.3% 1.5%
First Round16.0% 17.0% 6.6%
Second Round7.5% 8.0% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.3% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 90.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 10
Quad 24 - 47 - 13
Quad 33 - 19 - 15
Quad 46 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 169   Chattanooga W 77-51 84%     1 - 0 +22.5 +6.1 +17.9
  Nov 07, 2024 232   Idaho St. W 75-69 90%     2 - 0 -0.5 +4.7 -5.0
  Nov 13, 2024 166   Texas Arlington W 98-95 84%     3 - 0 -0.4 +8.6 -9.4
  Nov 17, 2024 102   California L 66-71 70%     3 - 1 -3.3 -1.9 -1.8
  Nov 20, 2024 250   San Jose St. W 82-68 91%     4 - 1 +6.4 +12.5 -4.8
  Nov 24, 2024 234   Grambling St. W 77-63 90%    
  Nov 28, 2024 43   St. Mary's L 70-74 37%    
  Dec 04, 2024 39   Oregon L 73-74 46%    
  Dec 07, 2024 83   @ Washington L 75-78 40%    
  Dec 15, 2024 157   Montana St. W 81-71 82%    
  Dec 18, 2024 194   Cal St. Northridge W 85-73 85%    
  Dec 22, 2024 266   Southern W 80-64 92%    
  Jan 04, 2025 24   Michigan L 74-77 38%    
  Jan 08, 2025 22   @ Indiana L 71-81 20%    
  Jan 11, 2025 31   @ Illinois L 76-84 23%    
  Jan 14, 2025 41   Iowa L 80-81 46%    
  Jan 18, 2025 37   Wisconsin L 75-76 45%    
  Jan 22, 2025 65   @ Nebraska L 73-77 35%    
  Jan 27, 2025 27   UCLA L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 35   Michigan St. L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 04, 2025 74   @ Northwestern L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 07, 2025 18   @ Purdue L 71-81 19%    
  Feb 11, 2025 32   Penn St. L 79-81 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 90   Minnesota W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 20, 2025 30   @ Maryland L 69-78 23%    
  Feb 23, 2025 44   @ Rutgers L 70-76 29%    
  Feb 26, 2025 21   Ohio St. L 70-74 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 39   @ Oregon L 70-77 27%    
  Mar 05, 2025 83   Washington W 78-75 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 27   @ UCLA L 65-74 23%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.3 0.1 4.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.1 1.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 2.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 3.9 1.9 0.1 7.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.4 0.4 0.0 7.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.4 1.6 0.1 8.6 14th
15th 0.2 1.7 4.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 9.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.9 3.7 0.9 0.0 10.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.8 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.8 17th
18th 0.3 1.0 2.5 3.4 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.8 18th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.9 5.3 8.2 10.5 12.3 12.5 12.0 10.5 8.5 6.2 4.3 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 91.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 80.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 70.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 34.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.9% 100.0% 9.9% 90.1% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.5% 97.4% 7.8% 89.6% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.2%
13-7 2.6% 92.6% 4.5% 88.1% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 92.3%
12-8 4.3% 80.5% 2.8% 77.7% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.8 79.9%
11-9 6.2% 60.9% 1.8% 59.1% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.0 2.4 60.2%
10-10 8.5% 37.9% 1.0% 36.8% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.1 5.3 37.2%
9-11 10.5% 13.7% 0.6% 13.1% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 9.0 13.2%
8-12 12.0% 2.8% 0.2% 2.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.6 2.6%
7-13 12.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 0.2%
6-14 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 12.3
5-15 10.5% 10.5
4-16 8.2% 8.2
3-17 5.3% 5.3
2-18 2.9% 2.9
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 17.6% 0.8% 16.8% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.3 0.3 0.0 82.4 16.9%