Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#50
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#58
Pace70.2#154
Improvement+0.1#160

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#104
First Shot+2.0#115
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#141
Layup/Dunks-3.6#293
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#100
Freethrows+3.4#42
Improvement-0.5#264

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#19
First Shot+11.0#2
After Offensive Rebounds-4.2#340
Layups/Dunks+0.0#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+14.6#1
Freethrows-2.4#303
Improvement+0.6#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.2% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 3.2% 4.4% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 6.8% 9.0% 2.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.4% 39.4% 25.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.6% 17.5% 7.5%
Average Seed 9.0 8.8 9.8
.500 or above 98.0% 99.2% 95.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 94.5% 88.9%
Conference Champion 33.6% 37.5% 26.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four3.1% 3.6% 2.1%
First Round32.9% 37.7% 24.7%
Second Round15.9% 18.9% 10.6%
Sweet Sixteen5.6% 7.0% 3.2%
Elite Eight2.1% 2.6% 1.2%
Final Four0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Neutral) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 24 - 35 - 5
Quad 39 - 214 - 7
Quad 49 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 335   Bellarmine W 84-65 97%     1 - 0 +5.4 +7.8 -1.4
  Nov 08, 2024 133   Boston College W 80-55 77%     2 - 0 +26.8 +6.3 +19.8
  Nov 13, 2024 230   Merrimack W 63-42 92%     3 - 0 +14.6 -9.4 +23.7
  Nov 16, 2024 334   Loyola Maryland W 83-57 97%     4 - 0 +12.4 +3.4 +8.4
  Nov 21, 2024 88   Seton Hall W 62-59 63%    
  Dec 04, 2024 214   Georgia Southern W 86-71 92%    
  Dec 09, 2024 268   Penn W 80-62 95%    
  Dec 14, 2024 102   Colorado St. W 71-66 66%    
  Dec 18, 2024 63   @ New Mexico L 76-78 43%    
  Dec 22, 2024 208   William & Mary W 84-69 91%    
  Dec 31, 2024 114   @ St. Bonaventure W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 04, 2025 105   @ Loyola Chicago W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 08, 2025 161   Fordham W 77-64 87%    
  Jan 14, 2025 101   Saint Louis W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 17, 2025 100   @ Saint Joseph's W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 21, 2025 117   @ Rhode Island W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 24, 2025 114   St. Bonaventure W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 28, 2025 101   @ Saint Louis W 76-74 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 197   Richmond W 74-60 89%    
  Feb 04, 2025 120   La Salle W 74-65 80%    
  Feb 07, 2025 64   @ Dayton L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 12, 2025 143   @ George Washington W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 19, 2025 129   Massachusetts W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 96   George Mason W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 25, 2025 197   @ Richmond W 71-63 76%    
  Feb 28, 2025 130   Davidson W 74-64 82%    
  Mar 04, 2025 207   @ Duquesne W 72-63 78%    
  Mar 07, 2025 64   Dayton W 71-67 63%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 7.2 9.6 8.0 4.3 1.3 33.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.9 5.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.4 4.0 1.2 0.1 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.0 3.6 0.9 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 3.4 0.9 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.3 2.0 1.5 0.1 3.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.5 5.5 8.2 10.8 13.2 14.6 14.1 12.1 8.3 4.3 1.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 99.5% 4.3    4.2 0.1
16-2 95.6% 8.0    7.0 1.0 0.0
15-3 79.3% 9.6    6.7 2.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 51.2% 7.2    3.2 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.2% 2.8    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.6% 33.6 22.9 8.0 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 95.9% 56.5% 39.4% 3.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 90.5%
17-1 4.3% 90.8% 54.5% 36.3% 5.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 79.7%
16-2 8.3% 77.1% 43.0% 34.1% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.0 1.9 59.8%
15-3 12.1% 59.6% 36.4% 23.2% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.0 0.2 4.9 36.4%
14-4 14.1% 42.9% 31.2% 11.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.0 17.0%
13-5 14.6% 30.0% 25.1% 4.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.4 1.0 0.0 10.2 6.6%
12-6 13.2% 19.7% 18.5% 1.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.0 10.6 1.5%
11-7 10.8% 13.3% 12.8% 0.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.0 9.4 0.6%
10-8 8.2% 7.0% 7.0% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 7.6 0.1%
9-9 5.5% 6.2% 6.2% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 5.2
8-10 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.4
7-11 2.1% 3.0% 3.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
6-12 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 34.4% 24.1% 10.3% 9.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.4 3.4 5.0 10.3 4.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 65.6 13.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 2.3 33.6 27.1 22.4 13.1 2.8 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 96.8% 3.4 9.7 12.9 22.6 38.7 9.7 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 97.1% 3.3 8.8 17.6 23.5 32.4 8.8 5.9