Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#319
Expected Predictive Rating-13.9#334
Pace70.3#150
Improvement+0.1#150

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#292
First Shot-3.9#286
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#194
Layup/Dunks+0.4#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#195
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#317
Freethrows+1.2#134
Improvement+1.5#27

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#320
First Shot-6.6#347
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#66
Layups/Dunks-5.3#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#197
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#211
Freethrows-0.7#221
Improvement-1.3#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 4.7% 7.9% 2.1%
.500 or above in Conference 17.6% 22.4% 13.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 25.6% 20.5% 29.8%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Home) - 44.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 47 - 99 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 296   @ Coastal Carolina L 56-60 33%     0 - 1 -8.1 -12.4 +3.9
  Nov 11, 2024 85   @ Butler L 65-85 5%     0 - 2 -10.3 -3.5 -6.7
  Nov 15, 2024 269   SIU Edwardsville L 60-79 49%     0 - 3 -27.5 -13.0 -15.3
  Nov 17, 2024 351   Canisius W 92-69 75%     1 - 3 +7.1 +11.9 -4.4
  Nov 20, 2024 249   South Dakota L 76-77 45%    
  Nov 27, 2024 190   @ Youngstown St. L 69-79 17%    
  Dec 03, 2024 64   @ Dayton L 61-81 3%    
  Dec 13, 2024 163   @ St. Thomas L 67-78 15%    
  Dec 15, 2024 242   @ North Dakota St. L 69-77 24%    
  Dec 20, 2024 276   Valparaiso W 74-73 50%    
  Dec 30, 2024 35   @ Michigan St. L 60-84 2%    
  Jan 04, 2025 138   Toledo L 74-81 26%    
  Jan 07, 2025 264   Bowling Green L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 228   @ Miami (OH) L 68-77 22%    
  Jan 14, 2025 123   @ Kent St. L 63-77 10%    
  Jan 18, 2025 330   Buffalo W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 21, 2025 293   Northern Illinois W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 202   @ Central Michigan L 65-75 20%    
  Jan 28, 2025 246   @ Ball St. L 70-77 26%    
  Feb 01, 2025 301   Eastern Michigan W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 04, 2025 156   @ Ohio L 70-82 15%    
  Feb 11, 2025 139   @ Akron L 66-79 13%    
  Feb 15, 2025 228   Miami (OH) L 71-74 42%    
  Feb 18, 2025 330   @ Buffalo L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 202   Central Michigan L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 25, 2025 156   Ohio L 73-79 31%    
  Mar 01, 2025 293   @ Northern Illinois L 70-75 34%    
  Mar 04, 2025 123   Kent St. L 66-74 23%    
  Mar 07, 2025 264   @ Bowling Green L 71-78 28%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.0 1.0 0.1 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.1 1.8 0.1 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 5.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.9 3.8 0.6 0.0 13.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.5 6.6 4.4 0.8 0.0 15.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 4.3 6.3 4.0 0.9 0.0 16.9 11th
12th 0.7 2.9 5.1 5.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 16.9 12th
Total 0.7 3.0 6.3 9.9 12.8 14.1 13.6 12.2 9.7 7.1 4.7 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 73.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 51.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 19.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 5.9% 5.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 13.9% 13.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.8% 6.8% 6.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-6 1.5% 5.5% 5.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5
11-7 2.9% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.8
10-8 4.7% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.5
9-9 7.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.0
8-10 9.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.7
7-11 12.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.2
6-12 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.6
5-13 14.1% 14.1
4-14 12.8% 12.8
3-15 9.9% 9.9
2-16 6.3% 6.3
1-17 3.0% 3.0
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%