Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#277
Expected Predictive Rating-13.1#340
Pace60.8#348
Improvement+0.0#187

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#268
First Shot-1.7#230
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#291
Layup/Dunks+0.7#148
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#149
Freethrows-1.6#282
Improvement+0.0#185

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#259
First Shot-3.0#271
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#180
Layups/Dunks-0.6#192
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#196
Freethrows-0.2#201
Improvement+0.0#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 87.5% 71.8% 90.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Home) - 17.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 5
Quad 20 - 90 - 14
Quad 32 - 92 - 23
Quad 43 - 55 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 155   North Alabama L 57-73 33%     0 - 1 -17.9 -11.8 -8.0
  Nov 07, 2024 130   Jacksonville St. W 73-67 29%     1 - 1 +5.3 +6.1 -0.2
  Nov 11, 2024 327   LIU Brooklyn L 54-63 73%     1 - 2 -21.7 -11.2 -12.2
  Nov 15, 2024 140   Belmont L 71-79 31%     1 - 3 -9.2 +0.6 -10.6
  Nov 21, 2024 116   @ California L 69-78 14%     1 - 4 -3.7 +1.0 -5.2
  Nov 24, 2024 353   Mercyhurst W 82-48 81%     2 - 4 +18.4 +18.7 +6.4
  Nov 27, 2024 337   Sacramento St. L 61-63 76%     2 - 5 -16.0 -11.1 -5.0
  Nov 30, 2024 196   @ Wright St. L 57-70 24%     2 - 6 -12.2 -11.1 -2.6
  Dec 02, 2024 173   @ Miami (OH) L 60-73 21%     2 - 7 -10.9 -5.0 -7.6
  Dec 07, 2024 318   Stony Brook W 69-61 61%     3 - 7 -1.2 -9.4 +8.3
  Dec 16, 2024 154   @ Northern Colorado L 76-81 18%     3 - 8 -1.9 +1.0 -2.7
  Dec 21, 2024 51   @ Boise St. L 59-77 5%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -5.3 -3.8 -3.1
  Dec 31, 2024 101   UNLV L 58-77 21%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -16.9 -13.8 -3.2
  Jan 04, 2025 167   Wyoming L 65-70 35%     3 - 11 0 - 3 -7.5 +3.1 -11.5
  Jan 08, 2025 52   @ San Diego St. L 38-67 5%     3 - 12 0 - 4 -16.3 -21.7 +3.0
  Jan 11, 2025 146   San Jose St. L 62-69 31%     3 - 13 0 - 5 -8.4 -5.2 -4.0
  Jan 14, 2025 88   @ Nevada L 62-68 8%     3 - 14 0 - 6 +3.0 -0.1 +2.4
  Jan 17, 2025 259   @ Fresno St. L 65-74 37%     3 - 15 0 - 7 -12.1 -0.8 -12.3
  Jan 22, 2025 52   San Diego St. L 76-77 OT 10%     3 - 16 0 - 8 +6.7 +10.9 -4.2
  Jan 25, 2025 49   Utah St. L 58-87 10%     3 - 17 0 - 9 -21.3 -9.8 -13.0
  Jan 28, 2025 77   @ Colorado St. L 58-79 7%     3 - 18 0 - 10 -11.1 -4.8 -7.9
  Feb 01, 2025 146   @ San Jose St. L 64-75 17%     3 - 19 0 - 11 -7.4 -3.3 -5.0
  Feb 04, 2025 88   Nevada L 59-69 17%    
  Feb 08, 2025 40   New Mexico L 63-79 8%    
  Feb 11, 2025 101   @ UNLV L 59-73 9%    
  Feb 18, 2025 167   @ Wyoming L 60-69 19%    
  Feb 22, 2025 259   Fresno St. W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 25, 2025 77   Colorado St. L 61-72 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 40   @ New Mexico L 61-82 2%    
  Mar 04, 2025 51   Boise St. L 61-75 10%    
  Mar 08, 2025 49   @ Utah St. L 61-80 3%    
Projected Record 4 - 27 1 - 19




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 4.6 12.6 9.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 29.3 10th
11th 18.8 34.5 14.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 70.5 11th
Total 18.8 39.1 27.0 11.7 2.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 2.8% 2.8
3-17 11.7% 11.7
2-18 27.0% 27.0
1-19 39.1% 39.1
0-20 18.8% 18.8
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 17.2%