Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.2 #350
Expected Predictive Rating -12.2 #340
Pace 63.7 #313
Improvement -4.0 #333

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #356 D+ D F+ D+ B-
Defense #267 C- C- C- C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #104 1.14 #197 +1.3 #129
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #268 0.57 #359 -3.1 #326
Three Pointers 42% #159 0.92 #299 -1.5 #236
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #277 -3.2 #275
Freethrows 0.30 #199 63% #364 0.19 #299
Second Chance 22.5% #350 1.09 #98 0.24 #324
Turnovers 20.5% #351
Total Offense -9.2 #356

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #232 1.24 #289 -0.6 #199
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #145 0.79 #253 -0.7 #244
Three Pointers 42% #159 1.04 #221 -0.9 #230
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #258 -2.2 #251
Freethrows 0.30 #192 72% #149 0.22 #181
Second Chance 31.5% #222 1.04 #214 0.33 #224
Turnovers 15.3% #256
Total Defense -3.0 #267

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #78 -0.5% #129
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.8% #311 4.8% #273
Possession Length 19.7 #359 15.5 #3
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #349 0.18 #200
Improvement -2.5 #318 -1.5 #272

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 95.5% 79.1% 95.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 1.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 60 - 6
Quad 20 - 90 - 15
Quad 30 - 90 - 23
Quad 43 - 54 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 74 @Belmont L 63 - 79 3% -4  0 - 1 -5 -3 A+ C- F -3 B A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 175 Austin Peay L 54 - 74 22% -10  0 - 2 -24 -20 D- D+ F -4 F+ B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 195 LIU Brooklyn L 72 - 76 26% -0  0 - 3 -9 -2 D+ C+ C -8 C D+ C+
 Sat, Nov 15 90 Miami (OH) L 61 - 76 8% -10  0 - 4 -12 -10 F D C -2 D+ B C+
 Wed, Nov 19 322 Alabama St. W 66 - 64 53% -2  1 - 4 -11 -9 C- A F -2 C+ A- C-
 Fri, Nov 21 252 SIU Edwardsville W 77 - 63 35% +8  2 - 4 +6 +6 D A B- +0 C+ C+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 340 IU Indianapolis W 98 - 85 59% +2  3 - 4 -2 +5 A D- C -8 C D- C
 Wed, Nov 26 190 Northern Colorado L 53 - 71 25% -5  3 - 5 -23 -16 F D+ F+ -9 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 285 South Dakota L 63 - 80 31% -11  3 - 6 -24 -14 F F C- -10 D- C- B
 Wed, Dec 3 125 Pacific L 65 - 80 14% -9  3 - 7 -16 +1 C+ B D- -19 C- F F
 Sun, Dec 7 179 @Navy L 56 - 61 10% +0  3 - 8 -3 -8 F+ D C +4 B A+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 43 @San Diego St. L 58 - 81 1% -8  3 - 9 0 - 1 -8 +1 C B+ D -11 D+ F C+
 Tue, Dec 30 111 Wyoming L 56 - 68 12% -5  3 - 10 0 - 2 -11 -16 C F F +4 A F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 128 @UNLV L 39 - 67 6% -15  3 - 11 0 - 3 -23 -29 F F D +4 A F C
 Tue, Jan 6 38 Utah St. L 62 - 99 3% -20  3 - 12 0 - 4 -26 -3 C C+ B -26 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 45 New Mexico L 49 - 91 4% -21  3 - 13 0 - 5 -33 -18 C+ F F -16 D B C-
 Tue, Jan 13 242 @San Jose St. L 62 - 70 16% -4  3 - 14 0 - 6 -10 -5 D D- F -6 D+ C- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 71 Nevada L 66 - 81 6% -10  3 - 15 0 - 7 -10 -4 A F D- -6 F A A+
 Tue, Jan 20 103 @Colorado St. L 52 - 81 4% -17  3 - 16 0 - 8 -21 -16 F F F -7 C- A- F
 Sat, Jan 24 62 @Boise St. L 54 - 96 2% -19  3 - 17 0 - 9 -30 -6 C D+ D -30 F F F
 Sat, Jan 31 146 Fresno St. L 62 - 79 17% -8  3 - 18 0 - 10 -19 -10 C- D- F+ -9 D- B+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 65 @Grand Canyon L 54 - 78 1%
 Sat, Feb 7 43 San Diego St. L 56 - 77 3%
 Tue, Feb 10 103 Colorado St. L 59 - 73 10%
 Sat, Feb 14 146 @Fresno St. L 59 - 75 7%
 Tue, Feb 17 45 @New Mexico L 57 - 84 1%
 Sat, Feb 21 128 UNLV L 66 - 77 15%
 Tue, Feb 24 242 San Jose St. L 64 - 69 34%
 Sat, Feb 28 111 @Wyoming L 58 - 77 4%
 Tue, Mar 3 65 Grand Canyon L 57 - 75 5%
 Sat, Mar 7 71 @Nevada L 55 - 78 2%
Totals 4 - 27 1 - 19 -12 -9 D+ D F+ -3 C- C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 4.6 6.6 2.5 0.5 0.1 14.3 11th
12th 41.8 35.4 7.8 0.7 0.1 85.7 12th
Total 41.8 40.0 14.3 3.2 0.6 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 3.2% 3.2
2-18 14.3% 14.3
1-19 40.0% 40.0
0-20 41.8% 41.8
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 41.2%