Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.8 #334
Expected Predictive Rating -11.3 #326
Pace 62.5 #340
Improvement -2.0 #289

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #356 D+ D F D+ B
Defense #235 C C- C C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #63 1.15 #185 +2.6 #99
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #270 0.54 #359 -3.4 #329
Three Pointers 41% #186 0.89 #309 -2.6 #274
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #270 -3.4 #269
Freethrows 18.7 #110 61% #364 11.3 #259
Second Chance 22.8% #349 1.19 #40 0.27 #281
Turnovers 19.9% #338
Total Offense -8.7 #356

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #234 1.23 #269 -0.2 #189
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #111 0.79 #232 -1.2 #269
Three Pointers 41% #195 0.97 #137 +0.9 #148
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #189 -0.5 #190
Freethrows 16.3 #136 72% #167 11.8 #227
Second Chance 32.0% #230 1.06 #212 0.34 #223
Turnovers 16.1% #210
Total Defense -2.1 #235

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #69 -0.8% #102
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.3% #306 1.7% #214
Possession Length 19.6 #357 15.9 #21
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #349 0.18 #207
Improvement -2.3 #318 +0.3 #164

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 89.6% 76.5% 90.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 5.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 4
Quad 20 - 90 - 13
Quad 31 - 91 - 22
Quad 44 - 55 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 73 @Belmont L 63 - 79 3%  -4  0 - 1 -5 -3 A+ C F -3 A- A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 186 Austin Peay L 54 - 74 28%  -10  0 - 2 -25 -20 D D F -4 F B A+
 Tue, Nov 11 209 LIU Brooklyn L 72 - 76 31%  -0  0 - 3 -10 -4 D C- C- -6 C D+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 93 Miami (OH) L 61 - 76 11%  -10  0 - 4 -12 -9 F D C- -4 D- A- C+
 Wed, Nov 19 301 Alabama St. W 66 - 64 50%  -2  1 - 4 -9 -11 D A+ F +2 B A+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 275 SIU Edwardsville W 77 - 63 45%  +8  2 - 4 +4 +4 F A B +1 C B- C
 Sun, Nov 23 355 IU Indianapolis W 98 - 85 71%  +2  3 - 4 -3 +5 A+ F C -10 C F C
 Wed, Nov 26 161 Northern Colorado L 53 - 71 24%  -5  3 - 5 -21 -15 F D+ F -9 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 290 South Dakota L 63 - 80 36%  -11  3 - 6 -24 -15 F F D -10 F C B
 Wed, Dec 3 144 Pacific L 65 - 80 20%  -9  3 - 7 -17 +0 C+ B- F -20 C- F F
 Sun, Dec 7 193 @Navy L 56 - 61 14%  +0  3 - 8 -4 -9 F F C +5 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 52 @San Diego St. L 58 - 81 2%  -8  3 - 9 0 - 1 -10 -3 C C D- -9 C- F C
 Tue, Dec 30 95 Wyoming L 56 - 68 11%  -5  3 - 10 0 - 2 -9 -15 C+ F F +5 A+ D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 142 @UNLV L 39 - 67 9%  -15  3 - 11 0 - 3 -24 -29 F F D+ +3 A F C
 Tue, Jan 6 35 Utah St. L 62 - 99 3%  -20  3 - 12 0 - 4 -26 -3 C+ C+ B+ -26 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 56 New Mexico L 59 - 76 5% 
 Tue, Jan 13 221 @San Jose St. L 60 - 71 16% 
 Sat, Jan 17 90 Nevada L 58 - 72 9% 
 Tue, Jan 20 94 @Colorado St. L 56 - 76 3% 
 Sat, Jan 24 63 @Boise St. L 52 - 75 2% 
 Sat, Jan 31 157 Fresno St. L 62 - 70 24% 
 Tue, Feb 3 83 @Grand Canyon L 55 - 76 3% 
 Sat, Feb 7 52 San Diego St. L 58 - 76 5% 
 Tue, Feb 10 94 Colorado St. L 59 - 73 10% 
 Sat, Feb 14 157 @Fresno St. L 59 - 73 10% 
 Tue, Feb 17 56 @New Mexico L 56 - 79 2% 
 Sat, Feb 21 142 UNLV L 65 - 74 21% 
 Tue, Feb 24 221 San Jose St. L 63 - 68 33% 
 Sat, Feb 28 95 @Wyoming L 58 - 78 4% 
 Tue, Mar 3 83 Grand Canyon L 58 - 73 9% 
 Sat, Mar 7 90 @Nevada L 55 - 75 3% 
Totals 5 - 26 2 - 18 -11 -9 D+ D F -2 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.7 10th
11th 0.9 4.6 6.1 3.3 0.8 0.1 15.8 11th
12th 21.3 31.3 20.3 6.7 1.2 0.1 81.0 12th
Total 21.3 32.2 24.9 13.2 5.5 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.7% 0.7
5-15 2.0% 2.0
4-16 5.5% 5.5
3-17 13.2% 13.2
2-18 24.9% 24.9
1-19 32.2% 32.2
0-20 21.3% 21.3
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 20.8%