Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#288
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#278
Pace68.8#155
Improvement-0.1#196

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#296
First Shot-1.4#216
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#338
Layup/Dunks-4.7#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#131
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#77
Freethrows-0.7#228
Improvement-5.1#352

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#255
First Shot-1.1#216
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#307
Layups/Dunks+1.7#107
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#259
Freethrows-2.4#328
Improvement+5.0#12
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 29.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 47.3% 100.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.6% 28.8% 0.0%
First Round7.3% 15.4% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 13 - 7
Quad 413 - 916 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 93   @ UNLV L 79-93 8%     0 - 1 -5.8 +12.7 -18.5
  Nov 10, 2024 86   @ LSU L 61-74 7%     0 - 2 -3.9 -7.7 +4.2
  Nov 22, 2024 148   Nebraska Omaha W 85-67 22%     1 - 2 +18.8 +7.2 +11.1
  Nov 23, 2024 176   Lamar W 77-75 27%     2 - 2 +0.9 +9.5 -8.5
  Nov 24, 2024 111   @ Akron L 78-97 10%     2 - 3 -12.6 +3.1 -14.8
  Nov 27, 2024 48   @ Cincinnati L 59-77 3%     2 - 4 -4.1 -4.8 +0.8
  Dec 03, 2024 45   @ SMU L 72-101 3%     2 - 5 -14.8 +1.5 -15.2
  Dec 05, 2024 295   @ Southern Miss L 64-81 40%     2 - 6 -21.9 -12.1 -8.9
  Dec 11, 2024 306   Tennessee Martin W 103-93 OT 64%     3 - 6 -1.2 +11.9 -14.3
  Dec 19, 2024 190   Norfolk St. L 54-71 29%     3 - 7 -18.6 -18.1 -1.6
  Dec 20, 2024 310   Delaware St. L 80-83 56%     3 - 8 -12.0 +3.6 -15.7
  Dec 30, 2024 18   @ Missouri L 65-82 1%     3 - 9 +2.5 -3.8 +6.6
  Jan 04, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 84-55 98%     4 - 9 1 - 0 -2.1 +4.7 -4.5
  Jan 06, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 93-91 90%     5 - 9 2 - 0 -19.3 +6.6 -26.0
  Jan 11, 2025 262   @ Jackson St. L 70-77 33%     5 - 10 2 - 1 -9.9 -3.1 -6.8
  Jan 13, 2025 325   @ Alcorn St. L 65-67 49%     5 - 11 2 - 2 -9.2 -4.2 -5.2
  Jan 18, 2025 358   @ Alabama A&M W 69-65 71%     6 - 11 3 - 2 -9.3 -7.2 -2.0
  Jan 25, 2025 360   Prairie View W 66-63 86%     7 - 11 4 - 2 -15.9 -16.3 +0.4
  Jan 27, 2025 279   Texas Southern L 69-80 58%     7 - 12 4 - 3 -20.5 -5.0 -15.3
  Feb 01, 2025 289   @ Bethune-Cookman L 64-67 40%     7 - 13 4 - 4 -7.8 -10.7 +3.0
  Feb 03, 2025 326   @ Florida A&M W 67-66 49%     8 - 13 5 - 4 -6.2 -1.8 -4.3
  Feb 08, 2025 328   Grambling St. L 67-77 71%     8 - 14 5 - 5 -23.1 -6.1 -17.6
  Feb 10, 2025 240   Southern W 82-81 49%     9 - 14 6 - 5 -6.1 +6.8 -12.9
  Feb 15, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 75-63 79%     10 - 14 7 - 5 -3.8 -10.3 +5.8
  Feb 17, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 79-56 94%     11 - 14 8 - 5 -2.6 -1.9 +0.0
  Feb 22, 2025 326   Florida A&M W 60-59 70%     12 - 14 9 - 5 -11.7 -15.0 +3.3
  Feb 24, 2025 289   Bethune-Cookman L 68-70 61%     12 - 15 9 - 6 -12.3 -6.9 -5.4
  Mar 01, 2025 358   Alabama A&M W 94-52 85%     13 - 15 10 - 6 +23.2 +15.6 +8.2
  Mar 06, 2025 240   @ Southern W 66-65 29%     14 - 15 11 - 6 -0.6 -0.9 +0.4
  Mar 08, 2025 328   @ Grambling St. W 59-47 51%     15 - 15 12 - 6 +4.4 -7.6 +13.5
  Mar 13, 2025 279   Texas Southern L 69-70 47%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 13.7% 13.7% 16.0 13.7 86.3
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 16.0 13.7 86.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 13.7% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 15.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 18.3%
Lose Out 52.7%