Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#308
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#294
Pace68.5#173
Improvement-4.9#343

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#287
First Shot-0.8#203
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#337
Layup/Dunks-4.6#330
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#70
Freethrows-0.6#219
Improvement-5.8#362

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#302
First Shot-2.5#258
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#320
Layups/Dunks+1.2#125
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#270
Freethrows-2.8#342
Improvement+0.8#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 9.0% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 21.1% 26.5% 7.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.0% 96.2% 80.9%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.4% 7.8% 6.5%
First Round4.2% 4.6% 3.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 72.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 21 - 8
Quad 413 - 914 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 101   @ UNLV L 79-93 8%     0 - 1 -6.9 +9.6 -16.5
  Nov 10, 2024 71   @ LSU L 61-74 5%     0 - 2 -2.7 -7.6 +5.2
  Nov 22, 2024 212   Nebraska Omaha W 85-67 29%     1 - 2 +15.3 +6.5 +8.3
  Nov 23, 2024 218   Lamar W 77-75 30%     2 - 2 -1.2 +6.7 -7.8
  Nov 24, 2024 100   @ Akron L 78-97 8%     2 - 3 -11.8 +4.8 -15.6
  Nov 27, 2024 59   @ Cincinnati L 59-77 4%     2 - 4 -5.8 -4.3 -1.5
  Dec 03, 2024 42   @ SMU L 72-101 3%     2 - 5 -14.9 +2.4 -16.1
  Dec 05, 2024 248   @ Southern Miss L 64-81 29%     2 - 6 -19.7 -11.2 -7.5
  Dec 11, 2024 307   Tennessee Martin W 103-93 OT 59%     3 - 6 -0.9 +11.9 -14.0
  Dec 19, 2024 185   Norfolk St. L 54-71 25%     3 - 7 -18.3 -17.1 -2.3
  Dec 20, 2024 314   Delaware St. L 80-83 51%     3 - 8 -11.8 +5.0 -16.9
  Dec 30, 2024 23   @ Missouri L 65-82 2%     3 - 9 +0.5 -2.0 +2.8
  Jan 04, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 84-55 95%     4 - 9 1 - 0 +1.4 +6.2 -2.4
  Jan 06, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 93-91 88%     5 - 9 2 - 0 -19.3 +4.7 -24.0
  Jan 11, 2025 284   @ Jackson St. L 70-77 34%     5 - 10 2 - 1 -11.3 -2.9 -8.4
  Jan 13, 2025 320   @ Alcorn St. L 65-67 44%     5 - 11 2 - 2 -9.0 -3.6 -5.5
  Jan 18, 2025 360   @ Alabama A&M W 69-65 63%     6 - 11 3 - 2 -7.9 -7.8 +0.0
  Jan 25, 2025 348   Prairie View W 66-63 73%     7 - 11 4 - 2 -11.9 -14.9 +3.0
  Jan 27, 2025 274   Texas Southern L 69-80 51%     7 - 12 4 - 3 -19.8 -6.3 -13.4
  Feb 01, 2025 279   @ Bethune-Cookman L 64-67 33%     7 - 13 4 - 4 -7.0 -8.7 +1.7
  Feb 03, 2025 340   @ Florida A&M W 67-66 53%     8 - 13 5 - 4 -8.2 -1.1 -6.9
  Feb 08, 2025 339   Grambling St. W 71-65 73%    
  Feb 10, 2025 224   Southern L 69-72 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-77 75%    
  Feb 17, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 75-61 90%    
  Feb 22, 2025 340   Florida A&M W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 24, 2025 279   Bethune-Cookman W 71-70 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 360   Alabama A&M W 79-71 79%    
  Mar 06, 2025 224   @ Southern L 66-74 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 339   @ Grambling St. W 68-67 50%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 2.8 0.6 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 7.1 3.5 0.1 12.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 10.9 8.8 0.8 22.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 10.6 11.7 1.4 25.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 8.0 10.6 2.0 0.0 22.0 6th
7th 0.3 3.1 3.9 0.9 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.3 2.6 8th
9th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.6 6.0 14.0 24.5 26.4 18.5 7.5 1.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 45.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 5.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.3% 15.9% 15.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.1
13-5 7.5% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0 6.5
12-6 18.5% 11.8% 11.8% 16.0 0.0 2.1 16.3
11-7 26.4% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2 24.2
10-8 24.5% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 1.9 22.6
9-9 14.0% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.7 13.3
8-10 6.0% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.2 5.8
7-11 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 0.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.2 91.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.2 5.0 75.0 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%