Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.8 #301
Expected Predictive Rating -9.9 #317
Pace 69.8 #168
Improvement -2.4 #300

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #220 D+ D C C D+
Defense #336 F F C+ C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #205 1.08 #269 -2.1 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #82 0.71 #239 +1.4 #98
Three Pointers 37% #271 1.03 #168 -1.9 #252
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #253 -2.6 #252
Freethrows 16.8 #220 74% #134 12.5 #190
Second Chance 30.6% #188 0.86 #346 0.26 #287
Turnovers 16.3% #156
Total Offense -2.1 #220

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #209 1.29 #321 -1.9 #248
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #304 0.82 #282 +1.0 #119
Three Pointers 46% #52 1.16 #337 -5.9 #350
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #346 -6.8 #347
Freethrows 18.7 #253 73% #203 13.7 #110
Second Chance 35.4% #326 1.12 #278 0.40 #329
Turnovers 17.7% #113
Total Defense -5.7 #336

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #281 1.0% #264
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.6% #227 12.3% #345
Possession Length 17.4 #182 17.2 #167
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #88 0.25 #355
Improvement -0.5 #224 -1.8 #295

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 10.5% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 12.7% 15.6% 4.5%
.500 or above in Conference 68.1% 75.2% 47.8%
Conference Champion 9.4% 11.7% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four8.2% 8.8% 6.5%
First Round5.5% 6.2% 3.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 74.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 30 - 21 - 9
Quad 411 - 1013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 111 @Florida St. L 64 - 101 9%  -20  0 - 1 -30 -13 F C C- -13 C- F A
 Tue, Nov 11 113 @UAB W 77 - 74 9%  +4  1 - 1 +10 +3 C+ D B +7 B+ C+ A
 Mon, Nov 17 77 @Colorado L 66 - 94 5%  -19  1 - 2 -17 -5 F D C -12 D- F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 334 @Air Force L 64 - 66 50%  +2  1 - 3 -10 -6 F F C -4 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 355 IU Indianapolis W 101 - 80 70%  +9  2 - 3 +8 +7 A- D C+ -2 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 275 SIU Edwardsville L 68 - 83 45%  -2  2 - 4 -22 -2 F D- A- -21 F F F
 Wed, Nov 26 56 @New Mexico L 87 - 93 4%  +6  2 - 5 +7 +18 A+ A+ F -12 F B- C
 Sun, Dec 7 235 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 74 26%  +12  2 - 6 -11 -4 C+ F F -7 C+ D- A+
 Thu, Dec 11 51 @Missouri L 77 - 85 3%  -11  2 - 7 +6 +18 A- A+ A+ -14 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 58 @Cincinnati L 51 - 88 4%  -21  2 - 8 -25 -10 F F A+ -15 F C F
 Mon, Dec 22 78 @Memphis L 67 - 88 5%  -13  2 - 9 -10 -1 F A- D -9 F B- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 55 @Mississippi St. L 56 - 94 4%  -18  2 - 10 -25 -10 F F D -16 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 89 - 69 89%  +12  3 - 10 1 - 0 -1 +5 B- F F -7 F C A+
 Mon, Jan 5 327 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 79 - 90 48%  -6  3 - 11 1 - 1 -18 -4 D- F C -14 F D B
 Sat, Jan 10 342 Jackson St. W 81 - 74 74% 
 Mon, Jan 12 346 Alcorn St. W 82 - 75 75% 
 Sat, Jan 17 303 Alabama A&M W 74 - 71 61% 
 Sat, Jan 24 306 @Prairie View L 80 - 82 42% 
 Mon, Jan 26 335 @Texas Southern W 78 - 77 50% 
 Sat, Jan 31 278 Bethune-Cookman W 79 - 77 57% 
 Mon, Feb 2 345 Florida A&M W 80 - 73 74% 
 Sat, Feb 7 246 @Grambling St. L 71 - 77 29% 
 Mon, Feb 9 256 @Southern L 76 - 81 31% 
 Sat, Feb 14 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86 - 80 70% 
 Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 83 - 64 96% 
 Thu, Feb 19 345 @Florida A&M W 77 - 76 53% 
 Thu, Feb 19 278 @Bethune-Cookman L 76 - 80 35% 
 Sat, Feb 28 303 @Alabama A&M L 71 - 74 40% 
 Tue, Mar 3 256 Southern W 79 - 78 53% 
 Thu, Mar 5 246 Grambling St. L 73 - 74 49% 
Totals 12 - 18 10 - 7 -8 -2 D+ D C -6 F F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.4 3.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 9.4 1st
2nd 0.2 3.5 5.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.5 6.4 2.4 0.1 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 6.7 3.7 0.3 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 4.7 6.0 0.6 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 7.0 1.8 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 5.1 3.5 0.2 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.0 0.5 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.0 1.3 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 1.4 0.1 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 5.4 9.3 13.7 16.9 17.4 14.6 10.3 5.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 98.5% 0.7    0.6 0.0 0.0
14-4 87.6% 2.2    1.7 0.5 0.0
13-5 63.3% 3.6    1.6 1.6 0.4 0.0
12-6 23.5% 2.4    0.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0
11-7 2.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.4% 9.4 4.4 3.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 35.0% 35.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.7% 28.0% 28.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
14-4 2.6% 25.9% 25.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9
13-5 5.7% 21.4% 21.4% 16.0 0.1 1.2 4.5
12-6 10.3% 16.6% 16.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7 8.6
11-7 14.6% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 2.0 12.6
10-8 17.4% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 1.6 15.7
9-9 16.9% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 1.4 15.4
8-10 13.7% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.6 13.1
7-11 9.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.2
6-12 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.4
5-13 2.5% 2.5
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 16.0 90.5 0.0%