Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#291
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#274
Pace70.8#123
Improvement-2.8#318

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#234
First Shot+1.5#129
After Offensive Rebound-3.7#342
Layup/Dunks-5.2#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#31
Freethrows+0.3#160
Improvement-1.8#300

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#322
First Shot-3.1#279
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#309
Layups/Dunks+2.3#86
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#282
Freethrows-3.3#347
Improvement-1.0#264
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 20.2% 13.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 47.4% 75.7% 46.5%
.500 or above in Conference 88.9% 95.9% 88.7%
Conference Champion 19.7% 29.0% 19.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four10.6% 11.6% 10.5%
First Round8.1% 14.0% 7.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 3.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 415 - 916 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 106   @ UNLV L 79-93 10%     0 - 1 -6.6 +9.9 -16.5
  Nov 10, 2024 56   @ LSU L 61-74 5%     0 - 2 -0.6 -6.9 +6.7
  Nov 22, 2024 294   Nebraska Omaha W 85-67 51%     1 - 2 +10.8 +5.5 +4.8
  Nov 23, 2024 195   Lamar W 77-75 31%     2 - 2 +0.3 +7.2 -6.9
  Nov 24, 2024 148   @ Akron L 78-97 17%     2 - 3 -15.7 +3.3 -18.1
  Nov 27, 2024 26   @ Cincinnati L 59-77 2%     2 - 4 -1.0 -3.6 +2.7
  Dec 03, 2024 40   @ SMU L 72-101 3%     2 - 5 -14.5 +1.6 -15.0
  Dec 05, 2024 282   @ Southern Miss L 64-81 37%     2 - 6 -20.6 -12.8 -6.9
  Dec 11, 2024 288   Tennessee Martin W 103-93 OT 61%     3 - 6 +0.2 +14.8 -15.7
  Dec 19, 2024 184   Norfolk St. L 54-71 29%     3 - 7 -18.2 -16.9 -2.4
  Dec 20, 2024 327   Delaware St. L 80-83 59%     3 - 8 -12.4 +4.7 -17.1
  Dec 30, 2024 54   @ Missouri L 67-87 3%    
  Jan 04, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 78-59 96%    
  Jan 06, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 89-76 90%    
  Jan 11, 2025 309   @ Jackson St. L 71-73 44%    
  Jan 13, 2025 337   @ Alcorn St. W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 18, 2025 360   @ Alabama A&M W 80-76 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 340   Prairie View W 85-78 75%    
  Jan 27, 2025 299   Texas Southern W 77-74 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 263   @ Bethune-Cookman L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 03, 2025 357   @ Florida A&M W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 310   Grambling St. W 74-70 66%    
  Feb 10, 2025 240   Southern W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-79 75%    
  Feb 17, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 75-62 87%    
  Feb 22, 2025 357   Florida A&M W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 24, 2025 263   Bethune-Cookman W 74-73 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 360   Alabama A&M W 83-73 82%    
  Mar 06, 2025 240   @ Southern L 70-76 31%    
  Mar 08, 2025 310   @ Grambling St. L 71-73 44%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.9 5.7 3.2 1.1 0.2 19.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.2 7.3 4.4 1.0 0.1 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.7 7.3 3.6 0.5 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.4 3.5 0.4 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 5.4 3.7 0.4 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.8 3.5 0.5 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 3.3 5.7 9.0 12.6 14.9 15.9 14.4 10.7 6.8 3.3 1.1 0.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 96.8% 3.2    2.9 0.3 0.0
15-3 84.3% 5.7    4.0 1.6 0.1
14-4 54.8% 5.9    2.7 2.5 0.7 0.1
13-5 21.3% 3.1    0.5 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.7% 19.7 11.4 5.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 45.7% 45.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 34.8% 34.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.7
16-2 3.3% 33.2% 33.2% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.2
15-3 6.8% 27.1% 27.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.9
14-4 10.7% 21.6% 21.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.2 8.4
13-5 14.4% 18.1% 18.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6 11.8
12-6 15.9% 13.1% 13.1% 16.0 0.0 2.1 13.8
11-7 14.9% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 1.6 13.4
10-8 12.6% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 1.0 11.6
9-9 9.0% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.5 8.5
8-10 5.7% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.2 5.5
7-11 3.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.2
6-12 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 12.7 86.3 0.0%