Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.7 #132
Expected Predictive Rating +1.1 #149
Pace 70.7 #143
Improvement -4.2 #351

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #150 C+ D+ B- B- B+
Defense #124 C+ B B+ D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #7 1.14 #210 +5.0 #38
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #267 0.84 #77 -0.9 #215
Three Pointers 36% #294 1.05 #131 -2.1 #261
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #122 +2.1 #121
Freethrows 18.9 #97 72% #193 13.7 #114
Second Chance 30.3% #203 0.95 #292 0.29 #259
Turnovers 15.3% #97
Total Offense +0.5 #150

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #165 1.16 #182 -0.6 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #298 0.70 #117 +1.9 #56
Three Pointers 44% #96 0.94 #106 -0.1 #184
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #141 +1.2 #140
Freethrows 19.9 #306 75% #264 14.8 #49
Second Chance 27.2% #70 1.02 #155 0.28 #79
Turnovers 19.6% #45
Total Defense +1.3 #124

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #38 1.1% #277
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.5% #151 -3.5% #112
Possession Length 17.6 #197 16.9 #121
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #37 0.16 #143
Improvement +0.0 #182 -4.2 #355

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 8.3% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 93.0% 95.6% 85.4%
.500 or above in Conference 87.8% 92.1% 75.5%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.5% 8.3% 5.2%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 74.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 411 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 268 Texas St. W 83 - 48 85%  +13  1 - 0 +26 +6 A+ F B- +20 B+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 291 Le Moyne W 83 - 60 87%  +6  2 - 0 +13 +3 C+ F A+ +10 B+ B A+
 Sat, Nov 15 125 @Davidson L 87 - 91 37%  -9  2 - 1 +1 +8 C B+ A+ -6 F A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 127 William & Mary L 74 - 82 61%  -9  2 - 2 -9 -6 F C+ F -2 C- B- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 314 Bucknell W 71 - 66 85%  +12  3 - 2 -4 -2 D D F -2 D- C+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 332 VMI W 81 - 48 87%  +22  4 - 2 +22 +6 B+ C+ F +18 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 1 74 @Kansas St. W 82 - 66 19%  +9  5 - 2 +27 +21 A+ A+ A+ +7 A+ C F
 Sat, Dec 6 101 Utah Valley L 71 - 82 49%  -10  5 - 3 -9 -1 D+ B- C+ -7 F A B+
 Tue, Dec 16 353 Chicago St. W 76 - 55 94%  +11  6 - 3 +5 -2 B- F A +7 A+ B C
 Sat, Dec 20 170 @Ohio W 68 - 58 49%  +9  7 - 3 1 - 0 +12 -1 D+ C- F +14 A+ C- A+
 Tue, Dec 30 93 Miami (OH) L 83 - 93 46%  -13  7 - 4 1 - 1 -7 +4 C+ C- C -10 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 167 @Massachusetts W 101 - 100 OT 48%  +0  8 - 4 2 - 1 +3 +11 A+ F A+ -8 F B B+
 Tue, Jan 6 138 @Kent St. L 93 - 96 40%  -2  8 - 5 2 - 2 +1 +20 B- A+ A+ -19 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 64 Akron L 67 - 77 34%  -11  8 - 6 2 - 3 -4 -8 C F D +5 A+ A A-
 Sat, Jan 17 197 Eastern Michigan W 75 - 68 74% 
 Tue, Jan 20 265 @Western Michigan W 79 - 74 66% 
 Sat, Jan 24 180 @Toledo W 78 - 77 50% 
 Tue, Jan 27 179 Buffalo W 79 - 73 72% 
 Sat, Jan 31 323 @Central Michigan W 78 - 69 79% 
 Tue, Feb 3 312 Ball St. W 77 - 63 90% 
 Sat, Feb 7 126 @Arkansas St. L 79 - 82 38% 
 Wed, Feb 11 325 @Northern Illinois W 79 - 70 80% 
 Sat, Feb 14 180 Toledo W 81 - 75 72% 
 Tue, Feb 17 138 Kent St. W 82 - 79 62% 
 Sat, Feb 21 93 @Miami (OH) L 75 - 82 26% 
 Tue, Feb 24 265 Western Michigan W 82 - 71 84% 
 Sat, Feb 28 167 Massachusetts W 80 - 75 69% 
 Fri, Mar 6 197 @Eastern Michigan W 72 - 71 53% 
Totals 17 - 11 11 - 7 +2 +0 C+ D+ B- +1 C+ B B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 3.4 2.9 0.5 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 8.2 7.0 1.6 0.0 19.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 9.7 7.6 1.8 0.1 21.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 7.6 6.7 1.5 0.1 17.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 5.0 5.7 1.1 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.5 1.2 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.2 0.1 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.9 0.1 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.4 7.2 12.6 17.4 20.5 18.4 12.6 5.3 1.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 50.2% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 14.4% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.1% 18.1% 18.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-4 5.3% 15.8% 15.8% 12.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.5
13-5 12.6% 12.9% 12.9% 12.6 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.1 10.9
12-6 18.4% 9.2% 9.2% 12.8 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 16.7
11-7 20.5% 7.2% 7.2% 13.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 19.0
10-8 17.4% 5.7% 5.7% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 16.4
9-9 12.6% 4.1% 4.1% 13.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 12.1
8-10 7.2% 1.9% 1.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.1
7-11 3.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
6-12 1.2% 1.2
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 12.9 92.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.1 3.8 3.8 69.2 23.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%