Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#289
Expected Predictive Rating-9.2#314
Pace73.9#62
Improvement-0.8#236

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#243
First Shot+1.6#127
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#355
Layup/Dunks+0.5#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#116
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#172
Freethrows-0.1#179
Improvement-0.3#193

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#304
First Shot-4.6#327
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#144
Layups/Dunks-2.7#290
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#271
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#202
Freethrows-0.8#244
Improvement-0.5#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.6% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 12.0% 21.0% 7.2%
.500 or above in Conference 39.7% 56.7% 30.7%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.7% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 9.1% 4.1% 11.7%
First Four1.0% 1.2% 0.9%
First Round1.4% 2.1% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Home) - 34.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 72 - 9
Quad 49 - 911 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 282   @ Southern Miss L 68-77 37%     0 - 1 -12.6 -9.3 -2.8
  Nov 08, 2024 122   Davidson L 85-91 27%     0 - 2 -6.5 +3.7 -9.7
  Nov 16, 2024 14   @ Michigan St. L 72-86 2%     0 - 3 +4.7 +8.2 -3.4
  Nov 19, 2024 320   Niagara W 76-68 69%     1 - 3 -4.0 +5.0 -8.1
  Nov 23, 2024 345   @ Bellarmine L 68-80 57%     1 - 4 -20.8 -10.1 -11.0
  Nov 29, 2024 210   Weber St. L 70-73 33%     1 - 5 -5.5 -5.0 -0.5
  Nov 30, 2024 201   New Mexico St. W 61-60 31%     2 - 5 -0.8 -9.1 +8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 350   Morgan St. W 102-81 78%     3 - 5 +5.8 +11.4 -7.3
  Dec 14, 2024 222   @ UMKC L 77-85 27%     3 - 6 -8.4 +8.3 -17.1
  Dec 21, 2024 125   St. Thomas L 68-93 28%     3 - 7 -25.8 -14.7 -8.2
  Jan 03, 2025 148   Akron L 77-81 35%    
  Jan 07, 2025 293   @ Western Michigan L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 252   @ Ball St. L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 14, 2025 330   Buffalo W 80-74 71%    
  Jan 18, 2025 305   Eastern Michigan W 79-75 65%    
  Jan 21, 2025 200   @ Miami (OH) L 72-80 23%    
  Jan 24, 2025 208   Toledo L 81-83 44%    
  Jan 28, 2025 116   @ Kent St. L 63-76 12%    
  Feb 01, 2025 237   @ Central Michigan L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 04, 2025 349   Northern Illinois W 80-72 77%    
  Feb 11, 2025 147   Ohio L 78-82 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 330   @ Buffalo W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 18, 2025 116   Kent St. L 66-73 27%    
  Feb 22, 2025 208   @ Toledo L 78-86 25%    
  Feb 25, 2025 305   @ Eastern Michigan L 76-78 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 252   Ball St. W 75-74 54%    
  Mar 04, 2025 349   @ Northern Illinois W 77-75 58%    
  Mar 07, 2025 293   Western Michigan W 78-75 61%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.0 0.6 0.1 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 6.0 3.8 0.4 0.0 12.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 6.1 4.4 0.7 0.0 13.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 5.5 4.6 1.0 0.0 12.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 4.5 4.1 1.0 0.1 11.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 2.8 0.8 0.1 8.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 4.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.1 5.8 9.2 12.1 14.2 14.4 13.3 10.4 7.3 4.5 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 95.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 85.4% 0.3    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 49.5% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 12.5% 12.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 19.2% 19.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.1% 10.2% 10.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-5 2.4% 8.7% 8.7% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.2
12-6 4.5% 5.3% 5.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.3
11-7 7.3% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 7.0
10-8 10.4% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.3 10.1
9-9 13.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 13.0
8-10 14.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 14.2
7-11 14.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.2
6-12 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.1
5-13 9.2% 9.2
4-14 5.8% 5.8
3-15 3.1% 3.1
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%