Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.4 #151
Expected Predictive Rating -1.5 #195
Pace 70.5 #134
Improvement -6.0 #358

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #194 C+ D C+ C B+
Defense #127 C C+ B- C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% #3 1.11 #240 +5.7 #23
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #269 0.77 #154 -1.4 #255
Three Pointers 33% #331 1.08 #88 -2.9 #285
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #134 +1.4 #133
Freethrows 0.31 #162 72% #190 0.22 #165
Second Chance 29.3% #224 0.84 #357 0.25 #317
Turnovers 16.1% #142
Total Offense -1.0 #194

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #160 1.14 #153 -0.2 #183
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #312 0.75 #158 +1.8 #55
Three Pointers 44% #80 0.98 #124 -1.0 #234
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #155 +0.7 #155
Freethrows 0.32 #237 74% #261 0.24 #258
Second Chance 28.0% #80 1.05 #223 0.29 #126
Turnovers 18.9% #58
Total Defense +1.4 #127

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.8% #27 1.3% #288
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.2% #174 -2.5% #133
Possession Length 17.6 #210 16.8 #108
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #19 0.18 #207
Improvement -2.5 #319 -3.5 #338

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 5.4% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 13.5
.500 or above 80.9% 84.5% 58.9%
.500 or above in Conference 66.1% 71.2% 35.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 1.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.0% 5.4% 3.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 85.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 10
Quad 411 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 259 Texas St. W 83 - 48 80% +13  1 - 0 +26 +7 A+ F C+ +19 B+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 296 Le Moyne W 83 - 60 85% +6  2 - 0 +12 +5 B- F A+ +8 B- C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 117 @Davidson L 87 - 91 29% -9  2 - 1 +2 +8 D+ B- A+ -6 F B A
 Wed, Nov 19 150 William & Mary L 74 - 82 61% -9  2 - 2 -10 -8 F C D- -1 C- C+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 315 Bucknell W 71 - 66 82% +7  3 - 2 -4 -4 D+ D F+ -0 F B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 356 VMI W 81 - 48 91% +22  4 - 2 +19 +4 B C F +17 A+ A B+
 Mon, Dec 1 92 @Kansas St. W 82 - 66 21% +9  5 - 2 +25 +21 A- A- A+ +6 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 100 Utah Valley L 71 - 82 45% -10  5 - 3 -9 -1 D+ C B- -8 F A- B+
 Tue, Dec 16 355 Chicago St. W 76 - 55 94% +11  6 - 3 +4 -2 C- F A- +7 A+ B- C
 Sat, Dec 20 199 @Ohio W 68 - 58 50% +9  7 - 3 1 - 0 +10 -2 D+ C- F +13 A+ C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 90 Miami (OH) L 83 - 93 40% -13  7 - 4 1 - 1 -7 +3 C+ D+ C -9 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 173 @Massachusetts W 101 - 100 OT 44% +0  8 - 4 2 - 1 +3 +10 B+ F+ A+ -7 F B- B-
 Tue, Jan 6 145 @Kent St. L 93 - 96 36% -2  8 - 5 2 - 2 +1 +21 B+ A+ B+ -20 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 61 Akron L 67 - 77 29% -11  8 - 6 2 - 3 -4 -7 C F D+ +4 A B- B
 Sat, Jan 17 237 Eastern Michigan W 85 - 79 77% +6  9 - 6 3 - 3 -1 +15 A+ C+ C+ -16 F C D-
 Tue, Jan 20 273 @Western Michigan W 72 - 54 64% +10  10 - 6 4 - 3 +15 -1 C- F B- +16 A+ B A-
 Sat, Jan 24 159 @Toledo L 72 - 73 40% +1  10 - 7 4 - 4 +2 +0 B+ F F +1 A+ D- F+
 Tue, Jan 27 204 Buffalo L 78 - 89 72% -5  10 - 8 4 - 5 -17 +3 D+ B+ B- -20 F B- D
 Sat, Jan 31 294 @Central Michigan L 59 - 62 69% +4  10 - 9 4 - 6 -8 -16 F F C +8 A F C+
 Tue, Feb 3 298 Ball St. W 75 - 64 86%
 Sat, Feb 7 168 @Arkansas St. L 78 - 80 43%
 Wed, Feb 11 308 @Northern Illinois W 76 - 70 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 159 Toledo W 80 - 76 62%
 Tue, Feb 17 145 Kent St. W 79 - 77 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 90 @Miami (OH) L 75 - 84 21%
 Tue, Feb 24 273 Western Michigan W 81 - 71 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 173 Massachusetts W 79 - 75 67%
 Fri, Mar 6 237 @Eastern Michigan W 72 - 70 56%
Totals 15 - 13 9 - 9 +0 -1 C+ D C+ +1 C C+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.7 1.5 6.2 3rd
4th 1.7 10.1 7.2 0.6 19.7 4th
5th 1.0 10.6 11.5 1.2 0.0 24.3 5th
6th 0.3 6.8 12.0 2.0 0.0 21.0 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 9.8 2.6 0.1 15.2 7th
8th 0.5 4.8 2.7 0.1 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 1.8 0.1 3.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 0.3 1.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.5 3.2 9.8 20.4 27.2 24.6 12.1 2.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 2.2% 10.1% 10.1% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0
11-7 12.1% 8.1% 8.1% 12.8 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 11.1
10-8 24.6% 7.3% 7.3% 13.2 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 22.8
9-9 27.2% 4.9% 4.9% 13.8 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 25.8
8-10 20.4% 3.1% 3.1% 14.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 19.8
7-11 9.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.8
6-12 3.2% 3.2
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 13.4 95.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.8 26.5 64.7 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%