Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.0 #323
Expected Predictive Rating -13.5 #337
Pace 67.4 #235
Improvement -1.4 #256

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #306 D D+ C D+ D
Defense #326 D+ F C- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #158 1.15 #183 +0.2 #167
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #45 0.80 #123 +3.6 #38
Three Pointers 33% #330 0.79 #361 -7.8 #352
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #295 -4.1 #295
Freethrows 15.6 #277 72% #195 11.3 #260
Second Chance 26.3% #300 1.08 #145 0.28 #262
Turnovers 17.2% #217
Total Offense -5.0 #306

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #57 1.20 #236 -3.9 #307
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #274 0.71 #119 +1.6 #77
Three Pointers 39% #236 1.06 #246 +0.1 #180
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #254 -2.2 #253
Freethrows 20.4 #320 68% #43 13.9 #87
Second Chance 35.5% #328 1.32 #362 0.47 #362
Turnovers 15.7% #233
Total Defense -5.0 #326

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #295 1.6% #306
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.4% #278 2.8% #235
Possession Length 18.6 #312 16.8 #109
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #197 0.21 #311
Improvement -2.1 #307 +0.7 #135

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.7% 2.2% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 46.2% 26.8% 51.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Home) - 21.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 71 - 14
Quad 45 - 96 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 224 Appalachian St. W 82 - 66 36%  +12  1 - 0 +10 +14 A+ C F -3 A+ F D+
 Sat, Nov 8 116 @Bradley L 54 - 85 7%  -14  1 - 1 -24 -14 F D- C- -11 F C C
 Thu, Nov 13 200 South Alabama L 64 - 66 23%  -3  1 - 2 -4 -0 F C C- -4 A- F C-
 Fri, Nov 14 364 Coppin St. W 82 - 59 83%  +13  2 - 2 +3 +1 F A C +2 A+ F F
 Thu, Nov 20 174 Northern Kentucky L 66 - 90 29%  -13  2 - 3 -28 -7 D- A+ F -21 F F D
 Sat, Nov 22 110 @Marquette L 71 - 85 6%  -5  2 - 4 -7 +2 D F A+ -9 F C C
 Tue, Dec 2 251 @Loyola Chicago L 72 - 83 22%  -2  2 - 5 -13 +1 C+ C F -15 C+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 29 @Saint Louis L 65 - 107 1%  -23  2 - 6 -25 +2 B C F -27 D+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 276 @Stony Brook L 55 - 78 27%  -16  2 - 7 -27 -13 F D+ A -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 325 @Northern Illinois L 73 - 74 39%  +10  2 - 8 0 - 1 -8 +1 D- A+ D -10 B- F C+
 Mon, Dec 22 43 @Wisconsin L 61 - 88 2%  -15  2 - 9 -12 -2 D F A+ -12 F A C
 Tue, Dec 30 170 Ohio L 64 - 80 28%  -5  2 - 10 0 - 2 -20 -16 F F F -2 A D C-
 Sat, Jan 3 180 Toledo L 75 - 78 29%  +5  2 - 11 0 - 3 -7 -2 D+ F A+ -5 A C F
 Tue, Jan 6 64 @Akron L 69 - 82 3%  -10  2 - 12 0 - 4 -1 -3 C F F +2 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 138 Kent St. L 75 - 83 21% 
 Tue, Jan 13 93 @Miami (OH) L 67 - 86 4% 
 Tue, Jan 20 312 Ball St. W 70 - 68 58% 
 Sat, Jan 24 265 @Western Michigan L 72 - 79 26% 
 Tue, Jan 27 197 Eastern Michigan L 68 - 73 33% 
 Sat, Jan 31 132 Bowling Green L 69 - 78 21% 
 Tue, Feb 3 167 @Massachusetts L 70 - 82 12% 
 Sat, Feb 7 310 @Louisiana L 64 - 68 35% 
 Sat, Feb 14 325 Northern Illinois W 75 - 72 62% 
 Tue, Feb 17 197 @Eastern Michigan L 65 - 76 16% 
 Sat, Feb 21 265 Western Michigan L 75 - 76 47% 
 Tue, Feb 24 138 @Kent St. L 72 - 86 10% 
 Sat, Feb 28 179 @Buffalo L 68 - 80 14% 
 Tue, Mar 3 64 Akron L 72 - 88 7% 
 Fri, Mar 6 312 @Ball St. L 67 - 71 36% 
Totals 6 - 23 4 - 14 -10 -5 D D+ C -5 D+ F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.1 2.2 6.5 4.1 0.6 0.0 13.6 10th
11th 0.1 3.1 9.5 6.4 1.3 0.0 20.5 11th
12th 0.3 4.6 11.8 7.7 1.4 0.1 25.9 12th
13th 2.1 8.2 12.3 6.5 1.2 0.1 30.4 13th
Total 2.1 8.5 17.0 21.6 20.6 15.3 8.7 3.9 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.2
9-9 0.5% 0.5
8-10 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
7-11 3.9% 3.9
6-12 8.7% 8.7
5-13 15.3% 15.3
4-14 20.6% 20.6
3-15 21.6% 21.6
2-16 17.0% 17.0
1-17 8.5% 8.5
0-18 2.1% 2.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%