Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.4 #270
Expected Predictive Rating -4.8 #242
Pace 70.5 #148
Improvement -2.6 #308

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #322 F F A- F F
Defense #192 C+ B- F C A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #348 0.95 #354 -8.1 #361
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #47 0.73 #207 +2.0 #80
Three Pointers 42% #163 0.92 #286 -1.4 #232
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #344 -7.5 #349
Freethrows 13.2 #338 73% #172 9.6 #336
Second Chance 24.4% #327 0.97 #262 0.24 #329
Turnovers 13.8% #34
Total Offense -5.7 #322

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #319 1.06 #73 +4.9 #37
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #10 0.84 #300 -4.5 #363
Three Pointers 38% #272 1.01 #187 +1.7 #116
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #119 +2.1 #108
Freethrows 17.8 #206 72% #169 12.9 #155
Second Chance 26.6% #55 1.10 #248 0.29 #117
Turnovers 13.1% #346
Total Defense -0.7 #192

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.2% #338 -3.2% #13
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.8% #334 -0.4% #173
Possession Length 18.0 #251 15.8 #19
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #331 0.14 #74
Improvement +0.9 #117 -3.5 #348

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 15.6% 23.2% 8.1%
.500 or above in Conference 14.0% 21.4% 6.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.9% 2.8% 9.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Home) - 50.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 34 - 64 - 9
Quad 49 - 913 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 265 @Western Michigan L 71 - 76 37%  +1  0 - 1 -8 -10 F D- F +2 C A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 152 Winthrop W 72 - 66 37%  +7  1 - 1 +3 -7 C+ C F +10 A A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 208 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 74 26%  -7  1 - 2 -7 -1 F A+ A -6 C+ F F
 Fri, Nov 21 358 @Western Illinois W 84 - 64 70%  +13  2 - 2 +8 +3 D- D- C- +4 A F F
 Sat, Nov 22 319 North Dakota W 75 - 58 62%  +10  3 - 2 +7 -7 C F A+ +13 A+ C+ D-
 Sun, Nov 23 85 @Illinois St. L 42 - 94 7%  -30  3 - 3 -42 -29 F F A -10 F B+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 303 Alabama A&M W 67 - 60 67%  +6  4 - 3 -4 -9 F F C +6 B+ A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 287 @South Carolina Upstate L 78 - 85 OT 41%  +7  4 - 4 -11 -5 D- F B- -5 C+ A F
 Sat, Dec 6 152 @Winthrop W 88 - 84 19%  -1  5 - 4 +7 +14 C+ D A+ -7 A- F D
 Sat, Dec 13 83 @Grand Canyon L 61 - 82 7%  -19  5 - 5 -11 -2 D+ F A+ -9 B+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 224 @Appalachian St. L 49 - 67 28%  -4  5 - 6 0 - 1 -18 -18 F F C -1 F A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 250 @Old Dominion W 76 - 74 34%  +1  6 - 6 1 - 1 +0 -1 F F A+ +1 C C- B-
 Mon, Dec 22 185 @Saint Joseph's W 68 - 62 23%  +2  7 - 6 +7 -4 F C- C +11 A A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 213 Georgia Southern L 81 - 82 OT 48%  -3  7 - 7 1 - 2 -7 -4 F C A -3 B+ D D
 Sat, Jan 3 304 Georgia St. L 71 - 89 67%  +1  7 - 8 1 - 3 -29 +0 F A+ D -31 F F F
 Thu, Jan 8 250 Old Dominion L 66 - 70 56%  -7  7 - 9 1 - 4 -12 -10 F F C -3 C D- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 224 Appalachian St. L 65 - 66 50% 
 Wed, Jan 14 159 @Marshall L 70 - 79 20% 
 Sat, Jan 17 213 @Georgia Southern L 75 - 81 27% 
 Thu, Jan 22 268 Texas St. W 71 - 68 61% 
 Sat, Jan 24 201 Southern Miss L 72 - 73 46% 
 Thu, Jan 29 200 @South Alabama L 63 - 70 26% 
 Sat, Jan 31 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 79 - 75 65% 
 Wed, Feb 4 126 Arkansas St. L 75 - 80 30% 
 Sat, Feb 7 167 Massachusetts L 74 - 77 41% 
 Thu, Feb 12 310 @Louisiana L 65 - 66 48% 
 Wed, Feb 18 204 James Madison L 71 - 72 47% 
 Sat, Feb 21 159 Marshall L 73 - 76 38% 
 Tue, Feb 24 304 @Georgia St. L 71 - 72 44% 
 Fri, Feb 27 204 @James Madison L 68 - 75 26% 
Totals 13 - 17 6 - 12 -6 -6 F F A- -1 C+ B- F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.2 4th
5th 0.3 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 1.6 0.1 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 3.1 0.7 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.3 2.2 0.1 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 4.3 5.0 0.5 0.0 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.5 7.3 2.0 0.0 13.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 3.3 8.9 4.5 0.3 17.2 11th
12th 0.4 3.5 8.5 5.6 0.7 0.0 18.8 12th
13th 0.1 1.0 4.4 6.9 4.4 0.9 0.0 17.8 13th
14th 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.4 14th
Total 0.4 1.8 5.8 11.1 16.7 19.4 17.7 13.2 7.8 4.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 45.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 4.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 9.8% 9.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.5% 3.7% 3.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-8 4.1% 1.8% 1.8% 15.3 0.1 0.0 4.1
9-9 7.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.7
8-10 13.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.1
7-11 17.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 17.7
6-12 19.4% 19.4
5-13 16.7% 16.7
4-14 11.1% 11.1
3-15 5.8% 5.8
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%