Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.1 236
Results Rating -1.5 184
Pace 68.0 194
Improvement +3.1 66

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 302 D D C+ D F+
Defense C+ 145 B- B- F C+ A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 358 D 52% 320 -7.3 358
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 124 C 38% 171 +3.1 48
Three Pointers 42% 155 C- 33% 215 +0.2 169
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.6 342 D+ -2.4 265
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 305
Second Chance D 25.3% 319 D 0.94 311 D 0.24 329
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 122
Freethrows D 0.26 317 C 72% 190 D 0.19 302
Total Offense D -5.0 302

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 31% 358 D+ 12.7% 282
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 8% 361 A- 1.6% 13
Three Pointers F 72% 357 B- 0.5% 86
Total F 39% 363 B 4.4% 51

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 319 B+ 51% 28 -5.5 33
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 8 D+ 40% 275 +4.6 363
Three Pointers 36% 310 C 34% 191 -2.4 82
Shot Selection/Accuracy A -1.6 10 C+ -1.7 109
1st FG Attempt B- 0.95 68
Second Chance B- 27.6% 74 C 1.03 185 B- 0.28 97
Turnovers F 12.3% 360
Freethrows C 0.30 171 C 72% 163 C+ 0.21 164
Total Defense C+ +1.0 145

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 37% 10 C+ 12.3% 117
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 96 D+ 2.8% 304
Three Pointers B+ 78% 39 D+ 0.3% 307
Total A- 44% 11 C- 5.0% 218

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 305 16.0 16
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 339 0.13 58
Improvement +2.2 #91 +0.9 #131

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 256 236 207
Results Rating Rank 231 197 165
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 8 6 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 52.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 34 - 56 - 7
Quad 412 - 718 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 288 @Western Michigan L 71 - 76 52% +1  52% 0 - 1 D -10 F -14 F D+ F B +5 C A+ B+
 Tue, Nov 11 135 Winthrop W 72 - 66 39% +7  96% 1 - 1 C+ +5 D- -7 B B F A+ +11 A- A+ F+
 Fri, Nov 14 196 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 74 31% -7  6% 1 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -4 F A- A C- -3 B F F
 Fri, Nov 21 362 @Western Illinois W 84 - 64 85% +13  92% 2 - 2 C+ +5 C- -2 D D- C- B+ +6 A F F+
 Sat, Nov 22 294 North Dakota W 75 - 58 64% +10  79% 3 - 2 B +9 F -11 C F A+ A+ +20 A+ B- D+
 Sun, Nov 23 103 @Illinois St. L 42 - 94 14% -29  0% 3 - 3 F -44 F -30 F F B+ F -11 D- B- F
 Sun, Nov 30 310 Alabama A&M W 67 - 60 77% +6  95% 4 - 3 C- -5 F -13 F D- C A- +8 B A D
 Wed, Dec 3 297 @South Carolina Upstate L 78 - 85 OT 53% +7  83% 4 - 4 D- -12 D- -8 D+ F B+ D+ -3 C B+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 135 @Winthrop W 88 - 84 20% -1  32% 5 - 4 B +9 A +14 B C A D -5 B F D
 Sat, Dec 13 62 @Grand Canyon L 61 - 82 8% -19  0% 5 - 5 D -9 D+ -3 C- F+ A+ D- -7 A- F F
 Thu, Dec 18 173 @Appalachian St. L 49 - 67 27% -4  21% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -20 F D- C B- +3 F A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 242 @Old Dominion W 76 - 74 40% +1  64% 6 - 6 1 - 1 C +1 D+ -3 D- F A+ B +3 C C- B-
 Mon, Dec 22 133 @Saint Joseph's W 68 - 62 20% +2  63% 7 - 6 B +11 D+ -3 D+ C C A+ +13 A A+ D
 Thu, Jan 1 266 Georgia Southern L 81 - 82 OT 68% -3  21% 7 - 7 1 - 2 D -10 D- -7 F B- B C- -3 B D- D
 Sat, Jan 3 289 Georgia St. L 71 - 89 73% +1  62% 7 - 8 1 - 3 F -29 C- -2 F+ A+ D F -28 F F F
 Thu, Jan 8 242 Old Dominion L 66 - 70 63% -7  0% 7 - 9 1 - 4 D- -11 F -12 F F+ C+ C +0 C+ D- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 173 Appalachian St. W 67 - 62 49% -5  17% 8 - 9 2 - 4 C +1 B- +5 A D+ B- C- -3 A D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 176 @Marshall W 85 - 83 28% +5  81% 9 - 9 3 - 4 C+ +4 B+ +9 A+ F+ C D -5 D+ A F
 Sat, Jan 17 266 @Georgia Southern W 79 - 75 OT 46% -2  36% 10 - 9 4 - 4 C +1 D+ -4 F F+ D B +5 A C- F
 Thu, Jan 22 237 Texas St. W 72 - 70 62% +3  64% 11 - 9 5 - 4 D+ -5 D+ -4 F F+ A C -1 A B F
 Sat, Jan 24 241 Southern Miss W 85 - 67 63% +12  99% 12 - 9 6 - 4 B +11 A- +11 A+ C- F C +0 C A F
 Thu, Jan 29 182 @South Alabama L 48 - 53 29% -0  45% 12 - 10 6 - 5 C- -3 F -18 F F C- A+ +14 A A- F
 Sun, Feb 1 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 79 74% +5  94% 13 - 10 7 - 5 D+ -7 B- +5 A- C- C+ F -12 F C- F
 Wed, Feb 4 143 Arkansas St. L 66 - 70 42% -0  43% 13 - 11 7 - 6 D+ -6 F -11 D- C F B+ +5 B- A C
 Sat, Feb 7 185 Massachusetts W 94 - 91 3OT 52% -4  17% 14 - 11 C -2 C -0 C+ F+ A C- -2 A D- F
 Thu, Feb 12 291 @Louisiana W 69 - 65 52% +5  94% 15 - 11 8 - 6 C -1 D- -7 D D+ F B+ +6 B C+ D
 Wed, Feb 18 201 James Madison L 65 - 67 55% -0  37% 15 - 12 8 - 7 D+ -7 F+ -10 D- F A B- +2 B- A+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 176 Marshall W 79 - 75 50% +8  99% 16 - 12 9 - 7 C -0 D- -7 F+ D C B+ +6 A+ C- F+
 Tue, Feb 24 289 @Georgia St. W 70 - 69 52%
 Fri, Feb 27 201 @James Madison L 67 - 72 32%
Totals 17 - 13 10 - 8 -4 D -5 F D+ F+ C+ +1 C- C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D C C- D+ 29% 42% 42% F+ D D D D C+ D C D C+ B+ D+ C C+ 33% 31% 36% A B- B- C B- F C C C+
1.01 52% 38% 33% -2 -2 0.94 25% 0.9 .24 16% .26 72% .19 1.07 51% 40% 34% -2 -2 0.95 28% 1.0 .28 12% .30 72% .19
Nov
3		 Western Michigan F C+ C- F F 25% 26% 49% F F F A+ D+ F C+ F D B B- F A+ C- 38% 31% 31% B+ C A+ C A+ B+ F F F
0.94 62% 36% 27% -5 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .32 17% .32 60% .19 1.01 50% 53% 27% -2 -1 0.96 16% 1.0 .16 20% .58 80% .46
Nov
11		 Winthrop D- F F A+ B 35% 15% 50% C+ B C A B F B+ F D+ A+ A D+ B+ A- 44% 19% 37% C+ A- A+ D A+ F+ C A+ A
1.01 44% 29% 48% +4 0 1.11 29% 1.3 .39 24% .39 57% .22 0.92 42% 40% 30% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.2 .17 11% .36 57% .20
Nov
14		 Jacksonville St. D+ F A- F F 32% 21% 47% D F C+ A+ A- A D- A+ C C- B+ A+ D+ B 47% 14% 39% C B B+ F F F D C- D
1.00 47% 45% 16% -15 0 0.72 30% 1.3 .40 12% .27 94% .26 1.11 48% 14% 37% -7 +1 0.92 24% 1.7 .39 12% .39 70% .27
Nov
21		 Western Illinois C- F+ F A+ D+ 27% 20% 54% F+ D C F D- C- C D+ C- B+ D+ B- A+ B 17% 52% 31% A+ A D+ F F F+ D+ D- D
1.14 53% 18% 43% +2 -1 1.05 35% 0.9 .32 15% .32 70% .22 0.87 56% 32% 18% -11 -6 0.69 27% 1.3 .35 14% .33 71% .24
Nov
22		 North Dakota F D+ A+ B- C 39% 17% 44% D+ C F C+ F A+ F F F A+ A+ A A+ A+ 23% 33% 44% A+ A+ C- A- B- D+ F B+ F
1.01 57% 56% 38% +5 +1 1.13 15% 1.2 .18 13% .28 56% .16 0.78 36% 25% 14% -22 -3 0.52 29% 0.9 .25 13% .53 65% .34
Nov
23		 Illinois St. F D- C+ F F 17% 40% 43% F F F F F B+ F F F F B+ F F F 25% 34% 41% A+ D- A F B- F D F+ D-
0.56 50% 38% 12% -16 -4 0.62 13% 0.3 .04 13% .08 60% .05 1.26 53% 48% 48% +11 -3 1.18 19% 1.3 .26 8% .32 77% .25
Nov
30		 Alabama A&M F F C+ D+ F 30% 36% 34% F F F+ D D- C A+ A+ A+ A- A C+ B+ B 32% 34% 34% A- B B+ A+ A D D A+ C+
0.97 31% 38% 33% -9 -3 0.80 24% 0.9 .22 16% .59 82% .48 0.87 44% 35% 29% -8 -2 0.82 20% 0.7 .14 15% .37 64% .24
Dec
3		 South Carolina Upstate D- D- F A+ D+ 41% 19% 41% C- D+ D- F F B+ F A- F D+ B- C- C C 47% 22% 31% D+ C B- A B+ F+ F B- F
0.97 50% 8% 42% -4 0 0.95 25% 0.6 .15 12% .19 77% .14 1.06 52% 38% 33% -3 0 0.97 26% 0.7 .19 14% .52 67% .35
Dec
6		 Winthrop A F A+ A+ B+ 31% 25% 44% D- B D- A+ C A A B- A D C- B+ B+ B- 29% 21% 50% A B F C+ F D F B F
1.26 44% 54% 43% +6 -1 1.12 24% 1.4 .32 11% .42 77% .32 1.20 57% 30% 29% -6 -1 0.90 44% 1.0 .46 13% .56 71% .40
Dec
13		 Grand Canyon D+ C- D- D+ C 33% 33% 34% D C- D+ F F+ A+ F F F D- A A C- B+ 33% 26% 40% A- A- F B F F C+ F D+
0.90 53% 32% 30% -6 -2 0.86 23% 0.7 .16 6% .13 50% .06 1.21 47% 27% 35% -6 -1 0.88 47% 1.0 .47 7% .32 85% .27
Dec
18		 Appalachian St. F F B F F 33% 24% 43% D+ F D+ F+ D- C B F D B- B- D F F 40% 27% 33% B+ F A A+ A+ B+ F C F+
0.75 41% 42% 18% -15 -1 0.71 27% 0.8 .20 14% .32 50% .16 1.03 56% 42% 47% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.7 .16 18% .42 64% .26
Dec
20		 Old Dominion D+ C B- F D- 42% 31% 27% D D- F F F A+ C A+ B+ B B C- F C- 33% 37% 29% A- C A+ F C- B- D+ F+ D
1.04 60% 39% 19% -5 -1 0.90 20% 0.6 .13 7% .35 88% .31 1.01 53% 37% 40% 0 -3 0.98 16% 1.8 .29 18% .32 79% .25
Dec
22		 Saint Joseph's D+ B A+ F C 25% 42% 34% F D+ F+ A+ C C A- C B+ A+ B+ F A+ A 33% 20% 47% B+ A A+ A A+ D B D B-
0.95 62% 50% 17% -3 -4 0.89 23% 1.4 .31 15% .28 71% .20 0.87 50% 45% 19% -12 0 0.78 23% 0.8 .19 15% .23 79% .18
Jan
1		 Georgia Southern D- F+ F C+ F 35% 35% 30% F F B C- B- B B+ C+ B+ C- C+ F A+ C+ 29% 31% 40% A+ B C- F D- D F D+ F
1.06 50% 20% 35% -9 -2 0.81 41% 1.0 .41 16% .42 78% .33 1.07 53% 50% 22% -5 -2 0.88 29% 1.3 .36 13% .48 75% .36
Jan
3		 Georgia St. C- D+ F D+ F+ 28% 19% 53% D F+ B+ A+ A+ D B- A+ A- F D C F F 10% 38% 52% A+ F C F F F B+ F C-
1.09 54% 22% 32% -6 -1 0.89 40% 1.3 .50 19% .32 82% .26 1.37 60% 35% 56% +16 -4 1.25 27% 1.6 .43 11% .24 100% .24
Jan
8		 Old Dominion F D- F B F 33% 25% 42% D F F B+ F+ C+ D B D+ C A F+ C- C+ 40% 29% 31% C- C+ F B D- B- B+ A+ A+
0.96 53% 8% 36% -8 -1 0.85 18% 1.1 .21 15% .31 78% .24 1.02 45% 44% 35% -3 -1 0.95 34% 1.0 .34 17% .23 38% .09
Jan
10		 Appalachian St. B- A D- A+ A+ 35% 28% 37% D- A D- B- D+ B- D- F F C- A- A- B+ A- 29% 29% 43% A+ A D+ D- D- F C F D
1.16 69% 31% 47% +9 -1 1.17 24% 1.0 .24 12% .22 55% .12 1.08 50% 29% 29% -8 -2 0.82 32% 1.2 .38 7% .32 76% .24
Jan
14		 Marshall B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 24% 43% C- A+ F A+ F+ C D- A+ C+ D B- D F F 20% 52% 28% A+ D+ C+ A+ A F C A+ B
1.23 75% 58% 43% +16 -1 1.33 17% 1.3 .21 17% .30 88% .26 1.20 58% 42% 53% +10 -5 1.12 31% 0.8 .23 9% .25 63% .16
Jan
17		 Georgia Southern D+ F A F D- 19% 38% 43% F F C- F F+ D A+ A- A+ B A+ C+ A A 37% 18% 46% B A D+ C C- F F+ A+ C+
1.07 44% 50% 25% -4 -4 0.87 34% 0.8 .26 20% .64 82% .52 1.01 38% 40% 27% -12 0 0.79 30% 1.1 .32 7% .40 57% .23
Jan
22		 Texas St. D+ B+ A F D- 24% 27% 49% F F F+ D F+ A A+ B A+ C A+ F A+ A 34% 45% 21% A+ A B B- B F D F F
1.05 67% 46% 25% -2 -2 0.94 21% 0.9 .18 13% .49 76% .37 1.02 42% 48% 8% -9 -3 0.77 29% 0.8 .24 6% .33 90% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Southern Miss A- C+ B+ A+ A+ 33% 24% 42% D A+ D+ C C- F D+ A C+ C D C+ B+ D+ 33% 45% 22% A+ C A+ F A F C- A+ B-
1.26 60% 45% 63% +21 -1 1.42 25% 1.0 .25 22% .32 76% .25 0.99 65% 35% 27% -1 -4 0.92 14% 1.4 .20 10% .38 65% .25
Jan
29		 South Alabama F F D F F 16% 6% 78% C F D+ F F C- F F F A+ A+ F B A 40% 26% 34% A- A A+ F A- F A+ B+ A+
0.80 50% 33% 25% -12 0 0.78 28% 0.5 .14 18% .14 57% .08 0.88 30% 54% 29% -9 -1 0.82 12% 1.5 .18 7% .18 60% .11
Feb
1		 Louisiana Monroe B- B B- A+ A 29% 22% 49% F+ A- C D+ C- C+ F D F F B+ F D- F 30% 21% 48% B- F D- B C- F B+ C- B
1.24 67% 45% 48% +14 -1 1.29 37% 1.1 .40 15% .16 67% .11 1.18 47% 67% 37% +5 -1 1.11 30% 0.9 .27 10% .25 73% .18
Feb
4		 Arkansas St. F F+ A+ F+ D- 28% 16% 56% C D- C+ C- C F C- F D B+ A+ B+ F C 33% 27% 41% A B- C A+ A C D B- D+
0.94 50% 50% 29% -5 0 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 23% .31 65% .20 1.00 38% 31% 45% -2 -1 0.96 38% 0.7 .25 20% .37 71% .27
Feb
7		 Massachusetts C D D A+ B+ 25% 34% 41% F C+ B- F F+ A F F F C- A+ F D B+ 31% 39% 31% A+ A F C+ D- F C+ A+ A
1.12 56% 33% 48% +7 -3 1.10 31% 0.6 .19 12% .22 50% .11 1.09 21% 54% 37% -4 -3 0.89 39% 1.1 .44 14% .32 48% .15
Feb
12		 Louisiana D- F D- A+ D+ 37% 30% 33% F D D+ C- D+ F A- A+ A+ B+ D B B+ B- 21% 44% 35% A B B- C C+ D F F F
0.99 44% 31% 50% 0 -1 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 27% .45 87% .39 0.93 60% 33% 29% -4 -4 0.85 24% 0.9 .21 14% .42 80% .33
Feb
18		 James Madison F+ D A+ F D+ 15% 35% 50% F D- F C- F A C+ F D+ B- B- A F B- 44% 28% 28% B+ B- A+ A A+ F A D- A-
0.99 50% 56% 23% -3 -3 0.88 18% 1.0 .18 8% .36 64% .23 1.02 54% 27% 40% -2 0 0.96 19% 0.9 .16 9% .20 75% .15
Feb
21		 Marshall D- D D- C- D- 30% 34% 36% F+ F+ C+ F D C A+ C- A+ B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 34% 36% 30% B+ A+ B- D- C- F+ C- F F+
1.05 53% 29% 33% -5 -2 0.88 36% 0.8 .27 17% .55 71% .38 1.00 48% 36% 22% -9 -2 0.79 30% 1.2 .36 13% .28 89% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 2.1 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 5.7 5.7 3rd
4th 0.8 6.4 7.2 4th
5th 10.1 2.9 12.9 5th
6th 0.2 24.1 24.3 6th
7th 8.5 14.8 23.2 7th
8th 23.0 23.0 8th
9th 1.5 1.5 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 33.1 49.7 17.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 17.2% 6.4% 6.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 16.1
10-8 49.7% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 48.9
9-9 33.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 32.8
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 14.8 97.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 14.5 0.3 4.3 40.9 51.8 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.9%
Lose Out 16.6%