Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 #239
Expected Predictive Rating -1.2 #189
Pace 68.1 #203
Improvement +0.5 #161

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #268 D+ D B- D D-
Defense #193 B- C+ F C A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #355 1.05 #298 -6.8 #353
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #48 0.76 #175 +2.8 #55
Three Pointers 43% #150 1.00 #215 +0.4 #165
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #289 -3.6 #289
Freethrows 0.25 #320 73% #158 0.19 #305
Second Chance 24.5% #335 0.96 #266 0.24 #336
Turnovers 14.9% #76
Total Offense -3.7 #268

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #324 1.05 #55 +5.3 #36
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #9 0.82 #287 -4.7 #362
Three Pointers 37% #285 1.02 #177 +1.9 #109
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #97 +2.4 #98
Freethrows 0.30 #178 71% #122 0.21 #163
Second Chance 27.3% #67 1.07 #252 0.29 #118
Turnovers 11.8% #363
Total Defense -0.7 #193

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.2% #339 -3.3% #13
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.1% #245 -1.5% #153
Possession Length 18.6 #308 15.8 #12
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #341 0.14 #68
Improvement +3.9 #20 -3.3 #334

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 5.2% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.0
.500 or above 80.7% 91.9% 70.3%
.500 or above in Conference 83.3% 95.3% 72.1%
Conference Champion 1.9% 3.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round3.5% 5.1% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 56 - 7
Quad 411 - 817 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 273 @Western Michigan L 71 - 76 46% +1  0 - 1 -8 -11 F+ D+ F+ +3 C+ A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 123 Winthrop W 72 - 66 36% +7  1 - 1 +5 -4 B B- F +9 A- A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 191 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 74 30% -7  1 - 2 -6 -1 F B+ A -6 B F F
 Fri, Nov 21 362 @Western Illinois W 84 - 64 80% +13  2 - 2 +7 +3 D+ D+ C +3 B+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 22 282 North Dakota W 75 - 58 60% +10  3 - 2 +10 -8 C F A+ +17 A+ B- D
 Sun, Nov 23 87 @Illinois St. L 42 - 94 10% -29  3 - 3 -43 -28 F F B+ -12 D- B+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 293 Alabama A&M W 67 - 60 72% +6  4 - 3 -4 -9 F D- C+ +6 B A D
 Wed, Dec 3 302 @South Carolina Upstate L 78 - 85 OT 53% +7  4 - 4 -12 -4 D+ F B -7 C- B+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 123 @Winthrop W 88 - 84 18% -1  5 - 4 +9 +17 B C A+ -7 B F+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 65 @Grand Canyon L 61 - 82 8% -19  5 - 5 -9 -1 C F+ A+ -9 A- F F
 Thu, Dec 18 172 @Appalachian St. L 49 - 67 27% -4  5 - 6 0 - 1 -16 -17 F D- C+ -1 F+ A+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 243 @Old Dominion W 76 - 74 39% +1  6 - 6 1 - 1 +0 -0 D- F A+ +0 C C- B-
 Mon, Dec 22 132 @Saint Joseph's W 68 - 62 19% +2  7 - 6 +11 -1 D+ C C +12 A+ A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 1 260 Georgia Southern L 81 - 82 OT 66% -3  7 - 7 1 - 2 -10 -5 F C+ B+ -5 B- D+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 268 Georgia St. L 71 - 89 67% +1  7 - 8 1 - 3 -27 +1 D- A+ D+ -29 F F F
 Thu, Jan 8 243 Old Dominion L 66 - 70 62% -7  7 - 9 1 - 4 -12 -9 F+ F+ C -3 C D- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 172 Appalachian St. W 67 - 62 48% -5  8 - 9 2 - 4 +1 +9 A+ D+ B -7 A D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 153 @Marshall W 85 - 83 24% +5  9 - 9 3 - 4 +5 +14 A+ D C -9 D A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 260 @Georgia Southern W 79 - 75 OT 43% -2  10 - 9 4 - 4 +1 -1 F F+ C- +2 A- C F
 Thu, Jan 22 259 Texas St. W 72 - 70 66% +3  11 - 9 5 - 4 -7 -1 F+ D- A -5 A B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 250 Southern Miss W 85 - 67 64% +12  12 - 9 6 - 4 +10 +13 A+ D+ F -3 C A F
 Thu, Jan 29 194 @South Alabama L 48 - 53 31% -0  12 - 10 6 - 5 -4 -15 F F C +9 B+ A F
 Sun, Feb 1 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 79 77% +5  13 - 10 7 - 5 -8 +8 B+ C C+ -16 F D+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 168 Arkansas St. L 77 - 78 48%
 Sat, Feb 7 173 Massachusetts L 74 - 75 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 303 @Louisiana W 66 - 65 53%
 Wed, Feb 18 205 James Madison W 72 - 71 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 153 Marshall L 73 - 75 44%
 Tue, Feb 24 268 @Georgia St. L 71 - 72 45%
 Fri, Feb 27 205 @James Madison L 69 - 74 33%
Totals 16 - 14 10 - 8 -4 -4 D+ D B- -1 B- C+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 0.7 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 2.3 4.1 0.6 7.1 2nd
3rd 1.1 8.3 2.6 0.1 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 6.8 7.1 0.3 14.2 4th
5th 0.9 12.7 1.6 15.2 5th
6th 0.0 5.8 7.3 0.1 13.2 6th
7th 0.4 10.3 1.1 11.8 7th
8th 2.3 6.7 0.1 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 5.1 1.3 6.4 9th
10th 0.5 4.1 0.1 4.7 10th
11th 1.4 1.4 2.8 11th
12th 1.1 0.2 1.3 12th
13th 0.3 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 14th
Total 3.3 13.4 25.1 29.2 19.5 8.1 1.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 48.1% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1
12-6 14.1% 1.1    0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.4% 13.7% 13.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2
12-6 8.1% 12.7% 12.7% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 7.1
11-7 19.5% 6.6% 6.6% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 18.2
10-8 29.2% 2.9% 2.9% 15.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 28.3
9-9 25.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.1 0.1 25.0
8-10 13.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.4
7-11 3.3% 3.3
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 14.8 96.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 2.0%