Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.9 #265
Expected Predictive Rating -9.5 #320
Pace 68.5 #189
Improvement +0.3 #168

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #154 C- B- C- D D
Defense #341 D- C- D+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 24% #365 1.10 #251 -8.9 #365
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #127 0.74 #199 +0.6 #144
Three Pointers 53% #12 1.02 #179 +6.3 #20
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #233 -2.0 #235
Freethrows 0.25 #327 72% #215 0.18 #325
Second Chance 32.7% #125 1.11 #75 0.36 #80
Turnovers 17.3% #221
Total Offense +0.2 #154

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #162 1.28 #325 -2.9 #282
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #132 0.95 #362 -2.6 #345
Three Pointers 39% #252 1.08 #276 -0.1 #186
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #336 -5.6 #336
Freethrows 0.33 #281 73% #226 0.24 #279
Second Chance 32.2% #253 1.06 #232 0.34 #251
Turnovers 14.9% #291
Total Defense -6.1 #341

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.6% #325 -0.2% #148
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #194 11.2% #351
Possession Length 18.7 #317 16.0 #22
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #208 0.25 #354
Improvement +1.9 #84 -1.5 #271

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 5.1% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 20.6% 32.0% 8.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 3.0% 12.4%
First Four3.8% 4.7% 2.9%
First Round2.6% 3.4% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 52.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 49 - 910 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 156 Western Kentucky L 79 - 87 39% +0  0 - 1 -11 +1 A- F+ C- -11 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 12 @Vanderbilt L 62 - 92 1% -19  0 - 2 -8 -3 D- C- C -4 D- A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 145 @Kent St. L 78 - 93 18% -16  0 - 3 -11 -4 D- B- F -5 D C- C
 Sat, Nov 22 148 Mercer L 83 - 95 36% -11  0 - 4 -14 +5 D B B -19 F D- B+
 Mon, Nov 24 193 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 82 26% -4  0 - 5 -10 -3 D- C+ C -8 C- F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 200 Wofford L 77 - 83 49% -8  0 - 6 -12 -3 F A+ B- -9 C C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 87 @Illinois St. L 78 - 89 8% -9  0 - 7 -2 +10 B- A- C- -11 F F C
 Wed, Dec 10 321 @Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 54% +5  1 - 7 +2 +3 C- C- B- -0 C+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 13 90 Miami (OH) L 69 - 79 20% -9  1 - 8 -7 -2 D C+ D- -5 C F+ D+
 Wed, Dec 17 191 @Jacksonville St. W 62 - 59 26% +5  2 - 8 +4 -3 F+ A- F +7 A- A D+
 Sun, Dec 21 99 @Wichita St. L 57 - 88 10% -22  2 - 9 -23 -10 F+ D- B+ -15 F+ F+ F+
 Thu, Jan 1 208 @Queens L 89 - 91 28% -1  2 - 10 0 - 1 -2 +12 B- C A+ -14 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 325 @West Georgia L 76 - 88 55% +1  2 - 11 0 - 2 -19 -1 D B B- -19 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 8 326 North Alabama W 88 - 80 76% +3  3 - 11 1 - 2 -5 +14 C A+ A+ -18 F C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 219 Central Arkansas W 79 - 75 OT 52% +1  4 - 11 2 - 2 -2 +2 B C C -4 F+ A+ B
 Thu, Jan 15 175 @Austin Peay L 72 - 74 23% -1  4 - 12 2 - 3 -0 +10 A+ D+ F -11 D+ F C
 Sat, Jan 17 305 Bellarmine W 89 - 69 70% +11  5 - 12 3 - 3 +9 +14 C+ A+ D- -3 A- C- D
 Thu, Jan 22 351 @North Florida L 85 - 87 64% -2  5 - 13 3 - 4 -12 -0 D+ B D- -11 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 24 295 @Jacksonville L 76 - 81 OT 45% +3  5 - 14 3 - 5 -10 +4 D+ A+ F -14 F F B
 Wed, Jan 28 175 Austin Peay L 82 - 90 43% -10  5 - 15 3 - 6 -12 +5 F C+ A+ -16 F D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 219 @Central Arkansas L 81 - 90 29% -8  5 - 16 3 - 7 -9 +2 B- F D+ -10 D- C F
 Thu, Feb 5 223 Florida Gulf Coast W 79 - 78 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 329 Stetson W 81 - 73 77%
 Wed, Feb 11 178 @Lipscomb L 75 - 83 23%
 Sun, Feb 15 326 @North Alabama W 76 - 75 55%
 Wed, Feb 18 325 West Georgia W 82 - 75 75%
 Sat, Feb 21 305 @Bellarmine L 80 - 81 48%
 Wed, Feb 25 208 Queens W 83 - 82 51%
 Sat, Feb 28 178 Lipscomb L 78 - 80 44%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 11 -6 +0 C- B- C- -6 D- C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.4 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 6.3 3.1 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 1.7 10.3 6.8 0.5 19.4 6th
7th 0.3 8.1 9.1 0.9 18.4 7th
8th 0.0 3.4 10.6 1.9 0.0 15.9 8th
9th 0.8 8.8 4.4 0.1 14.1 9th
10th 0.2 3.8 5.9 0.4 10.4 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 3.6 0.7 0.0 5.6 11th
12th 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.0 2.1 12th
Total 0.3 2.5 8.9 19.2 25.3 23.2 14.4 5.4 0.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.8% 11.4% 11.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.7
10-8 5.4% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6 4.8
9-9 14.4% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0 13.4
8-10 23.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 1.0 22.2
7-11 25.3% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.8 24.5
6-12 19.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.4 18.7
5-13 8.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.8
4-14 2.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 16.0 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.3%