Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.4 #254
Expected Predictive Rating -8.1 #292
Pace 69.0 #187
Improvement -0.3 #199

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #170 D B- C F F
Defense #330 D- C F C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 22% #365 1.10 #249 -10.6 #365
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #115 0.76 #163 +1.3 #105
Three Pointers 55% #4 0.95 #253 +5.5 #30
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #280 -3.7 #280
Freethrows 12.4 #351 73% #154 9.1 #345
Second Chance 31.3% #160 1.17 #54 0.37 #88
Turnovers 16.5% #165
Total Offense +0.0 #170

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #148 1.31 #329 -3.8 #304
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #149 0.89 #336 -1.7 #296
Three Pointers 39% #237 1.03 #209 +0.6 #156
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #324 -4.9 #324
Freethrows 17.3 #184 70% #102 12.2 #199
Second Chance 30.7% #175 1.10 #247 0.34 #220
Turnovers 13.7% #329
Total Defense -5.4 #330

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #342 0.0% #172
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.2% #239 9.6% #329
Possession Length 18.5 #309 15.5 #12
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #287 0.24 #340
Improvement +2.0 #65 -2.3 #313

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 7.2% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 8.3% 11.4% 3.2%
.500 or above in Conference 54.2% 64.7% 37.1%
Conference Champion 2.8% 4.0% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 1.5% 5.7%
First Four4.2% 4.4% 3.8%
First Round4.6% 5.3% 3.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 62.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 410 - 812 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 155 Western Kentucky L 79 - 87 41%  +0  0 - 1 -11 -1 A- F D+ -9 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 7 @Vanderbilt L 62 - 92 1%  -19  0 - 2 -7 -3 D- C C -3 D- A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 138 @Kent St. L 78 - 93 18%  -16  0 - 3 -11 -5 F A- F -3 D+ C C+
 Sat, Nov 22 160 Mercer L 83 - 95 42%  -11  0 - 4 -15 +6 D+ A- B+ -21 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 174 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 82 24%  -4  0 - 5 -9 -2 F B B- -7 D+ F D
 Sat, Nov 29 223 Wofford L 77 - 83 53%  -8  0 - 6 -12 -3 F A+ B- -9 D+ C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 85 @Illinois St. L 78 - 89 8%  -9  0 - 7 -1 +9 C+ A+ D+ -10 F F C+
 Wed, Dec 10 309 @Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 51%  +5  1 - 7 +3 +3 C- D+ C +1 B+ D+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 93 Miami (OH) L 69 - 79 21%  -9  1 - 8 -7 -1 D- B- F -6 C- F D
 Wed, Dec 17 208 @Jacksonville St. W 62 - 59 29%  +5  2 - 8 +3 -3 F A+ F +7 B A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 104 @Wichita St. L 57 - 88 11%  -22  2 - 9 -23 -10 F F A- -15 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 207 @Queens L 89 - 91 28%  -1  2 - 10 0 - 1 -2 +12 B- C A+ -13 C F F
 Sat, Jan 3 297 @West Georgia L 76 - 88 47%  +1  2 - 11 0 - 2 -17 +1 C B- B- -18 F F F
 Thu, Jan 8 293 North Alabama W 88 - 80 69%  +3  3 - 11 1 - 2 -2 +16 C A+ A+ -18 F C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 261 Central Arkansas W 79 - 76 62% 
 Thu, Jan 15 186 @Austin Peay L 72 - 79 27% 
 Sat, Jan 17 280 Bellarmine W 81 - 77 66% 
 Thu, Jan 22 350 @North Florida W 87 - 83 65% 
 Sat, Jan 24 328 @Jacksonville W 73 - 71 57% 
 Wed, Jan 28 186 Austin Peay L 75 - 76 48% 
 Sat, Jan 31 261 @Central Arkansas L 76 - 79 39% 
 Thu, Feb 5 189 Florida Gulf Coast L 79 - 80 49% 
 Sat, Feb 7 337 Stetson W 81 - 72 80% 
 Wed, Feb 11 177 @Lipscomb L 75 - 82 26% 
 Sat, Feb 14 293 @North Alabama L 74 - 75 46% 
 Wed, Feb 18 297 West Georgia W 80 - 75 68% 
 Sat, Feb 21 280 @Bellarmine L 78 - 80 44% 
 Wed, Feb 25 207 Queens W 83 - 82 51% 
 Sat, Feb 28 177 Lipscomb L 78 - 79 47% 
Totals 11 - 18 9 - 9 -5 +0 D B- C -5 D- C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.0 0.6 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.0 4.9 0.9 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.8 6.5 1.9 0.1 12.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.9 7.4 3.0 0.2 13.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.1 7.0 4.2 0.4 0.0 13.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 5.6 4.6 0.8 0.0 12.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.7 4.3 0.9 0.0 9.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.0 1.1 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.9 8.7 13.3 15.8 16.7 14.5 11.1 6.8 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 93.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1
14-4 66.5% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1
13-5 33.1% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 5.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 31.7% 31.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 1.3% 22.4% 22.4% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.0
13-5 3.5% 19.5% 19.5% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 2.8
12-6 6.8% 13.5% 13.5% 15.6 0.4 0.6 5.8
11-7 11.1% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2 9.9
10-8 14.5% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1 13.4
9-9 16.7% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 1.0 15.6
8-10 15.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.5 15.3
7-11 13.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 13.0
6-12 8.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 8.6
5-13 4.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.8
4-14 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 15.8 93.7 0.0%