Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.0 266
Results Rating -4.9 244
Pace 75.1 32
Improvement -1.5 241

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 211 D+ C- B- B- B
Defense D 307 D+ D B- F+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 173 D 51% 324 -2.4 272
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 331 B+ 44% 41 -2.6 301
Three Pointers 49% 28 D 31% 296 +2.0 114
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 43 D -3.9 311
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 270
Second Chance D+ 27.2% 269 C+ 1.07 110 C- 0.29 218
Turnovers B- 15.5% 97
Freethrows B- 0.33 93 C 73% 178 B- 0.24 106
Total Offense C- -1.4 211

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 28% 362 C+ 10.1% 129
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 13% 341 C- 5.7% 231
Three Pointers F 71% 359 C- 1.1% 247
Total F 42% 358 C+ 5.2% 124

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 40 C- 60% 232 +4.1 317
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 338 D+ 40% 266 -1.7 51
Three Pointers 41% 184 C- 35% 219 +0.4 202
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.1 348 C- +1.5 239
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 265
Second Chance D- 35.6% 344 C- 1.05 213 D 0.37 319
Turnovers B- 18.2% 89
Freethrows D- 0.37 330 D- 76% 346 F+ 0.28 347
Total Defense D -4.5 307

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 74 C+ 12.6% 107
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 150 C 4.8% 180
Three Pointers C+ 82% 109 D 0.2% 320
Total B- 52% 110 C+ 6.4% 122

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.3 78 16.6 61
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 262 0.20 286
Improvement -2.2 #293 +0.7 #143

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 282 266 248
Results Rating Rank 260 253 226
Conference Record 7 - 11 7 - 11 9 - 9
Conference Finish 12 11 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 10% 32% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 6% 24% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: James Madison (Away) - 26.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 72 - 8
Quad 411 - 814 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 246 @East Carolina L 89 - 92 34% -2  20% 0 - 1 C- -5 C+ +3 C A- C- D- -7 D+ F C-
 Sat, Nov 8 223 UNC Asheville W 93 - 90 52% -1  38% 1 - 1 C- -4 B- +4 C+ F A D- -8 F+ F A
 Tue, Nov 11 251 @Florida Gulf Coast W 95 - 94 35% +3  75% 2 - 1 C -1 A +14 A+ D- B- F -15 D F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 140 @Georgia Tech L 66 - 68 17% +1  46% 2 - 2 C+ +2 F -11 F B D A+ +13 A C- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 80 @Florida St. L 72 - 98 7% -14  0% 2 - 3 F+ -16 F -10 D- F C- C -1 C C C-
 Mon, Nov 24 198 Youngstown St. L 61 - 67 35% -4  10% 2 - 4 D -8 F -14 F F C- B+ +5 C F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 334 Texas San Antonio L 64 - 77 70% +1  69% 2 - 5 F -24 F -19 F C- C- D+ -4 B- D F+
 Sat, Nov 29 298 Houston Christian W 80 - 62 69% +6  91% 3 - 5 B- +7 C+ +3 C+ C A+ B +5 C+ C A
 Wed, Dec 3 215 Louisiana Tech W 77 - 69 50% +4  75% 4 - 5 C+ +2 B +6 A- B- B- D+ -4 F A+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 364 @Gardner-Webb W 88 - 84 82% +3  62% 5 - 5 D- -12 C- -0 D D A F -11 F D C
 Sat, Dec 13 317 @West Georgia W 91 - 85 52% +9  99% 6 - 5 C -1 B+ +9 C- A C+ F+ -10 D F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 289 Georgia St. W 90 - 67 67% +8  78% 7 - 5 1 - 0 B+ +12 A+ +16 D- A A+ C- -2 F B+ A-
 Sat, Dec 20 201 James Madison W 96 - 92 OT 48% -3  14% 8 - 5 2 - 0 C -1 B +6 D+ D+ A D- -8 B- F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 236 @Coastal Carolina W 82 - 81 OT 32% +3  68% 9 - 5 3 - 0 C -0 C+ +2 D B C- C- -2 A- F C
 Sat, Jan 3 242 @Old Dominion W 93 - 86 33% +13  98% 10 - 5 4 - 0 B- +6 B- +5 B- C+ B- C -0 A- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 182 @South Alabama L 71 - 87 23% -9  4% 10 - 6 4 - 1 D- -14 D -6 F+ D A- F+ -8 F B A+
 Thu, Jan 15 242 Old Dominion W 87 - 84 56% -2  34% 11 - 6 5 - 1 C- -4 B +7 A C- C- F -11 F D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 236 Coastal Carolina L 75 - 79 OT 54% +2  59% 11 - 7 5 - 2 D -11 D -5 F B- A+ D -6 B C- A-
 Thu, Jan 22 143 Arkansas St. L 68 - 85 35% -9  4% 11 - 8 5 - 3 F -19 F -14 F A C- D+ -5 F A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 152 Troy L 78 - 83 37% -4  7% 11 - 9 5 - 4 D+ -8 B+ +9 B- A+ A F -17 D F A-
 Fri, Jan 30 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 79 - 76 68% +2  61% 12 - 9 6 - 4 D+ -8 D- -7 F D F+ C -1 D D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 291 @Louisiana L 60 - 69 45% -6  1% 12 - 10 6 - 5 D- -14 F+ -8 F C- F D- -7 F D+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 237 Texas St. L 71 - 77 54% -3  37% 12 - 11 6 - 6 D- -13 D- -6 D+ D- A- D- -7 B F C
 Wed, Feb 11 173 Appalachian St. L 65 - 81 41% -8  0% 12 - 12 6 - 7 F -20 D- -7 C- F F F -13 D D C-
 Sat, Feb 14 176 Marshall W 101 - 87 42% +11  83% 13 - 12 7 - 7 B +10 A- +11 A+ D+ C C- -3 C+ A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 19 289 @Georgia St. L 64 - 66 44% -4  7% 13 - 13 7 - 8 D+ -7 F -10 F F A+ B- +3 B+ D F+
 Sat, Feb 21 173 @Appalachian St. L 74 - 89 22% -3  22% 13 - 14 7 - 9 D- -13 C -0 C+ F+ D- F -12 F D B-
 Wed, Feb 25 201 @James Madison L 74 - 81 26%
 Fri, Feb 27 176 @Marshall L 80 - 88 23%
Totals 13 - 16 7 - 11 -6 C- -1 B+ D B D -5 D C B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D B+ D D 39% 23% 49% B D+ D+ C+ C- B- B- C B- D C- D+ C- C- 44% 15% 41% D- D+ D- C- D B- D- D- F+
1.07 51% 44% 31% -4 +1 0.96 27% 1.1 .29 16% .33 73% .24 1.15 60% 40% 35% +2 +1 1.07 36% 1.0 .37 18% .37 76% .25
Nov
4		 East Carolina C+ D+ D B- D+ 55% 11% 35% A+ C B A- A- C- A+ F A D- F+ B A+ C- 45% 22% 33% D- D+ F F F C- F A- F
1.11 53% 33% 37% -2 +2 1.04 35% 1.3 .45 17% .45 60% .27 1.14 64% 33% 22% -4 0 0.95 44% 1.2 .54 16% .61 63% .39
Nov
8		 UNC Asheville B- D A+ D+ C 47% 14% 39% B C+ D+ F F A A+ B A+ D- D+ F A+ F 40% 37% 23% D F+ D+ F F A F+ F F
1.16 52% 75% 32% +1 +1 1.07 29% 0.6 .17 11% .55 72% .39 1.12 62% 63% 25% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.4 .45 22% .38 83% .32
Nov
11		 Florida Gulf Coast A A A+ A+ A+ 34% 6% 60% B+ A+ F B D- B- F+ F F F C+ F D- D+ 39% 20% 41% F+ D F B F C+ A A+ A+
1.30 72% 100% 47% +20 +2 1.45 21% 1.2 .24 15% .29 67% .19 1.29 57% 50% 38% +4 0 1.10 55% 1.0 .53 18% .18 45% .08
Nov
18		 Georgia Tech F F D+ C F 36% 5% 58% A+ F B- C+ B D D F F A+ F A- A+ A+ 40% 16% 44% D- A F A C- A+ F B F
0.88 20% 33% 34% -14 +2 0.78 33% 1.1 .37 19% .25 53% .13 0.90 71% 29% 16% -9 +1 0.86 41% 0.9 .38 29% .56 67% .38
Nov
21		 Florida St. F F+ B F+ F 30% 13% 57% B D- F+ F F C- A A+ A+ C D A+ C- C 28% 3% 68% C- C B F+ C C- F A D
0.87 47% 43% 28% -8 0 0.88 21% 0.7 .14 20% .36 88% .32 1.18 65% 0% 34% +1 +2 1.07 29% 1.3 .38 13% .40 66% .26
Nov
24		 Youngstown St. F F A+ F F 41% 12% 47% B+ F D- F F C- F+ A+ D+ B+ B- F C+ C+ 39% 10% 51% D C F+ F+ F A+ F C F
0.90 50% 67% 22% -8 +1 0.88 24% 0.6 .14 19% .27 87% .24 0.99 56% 50% 33% 0 +1 1.05 35% 1.2 .42 28% .37 72% .27
Nov
25		 Texas San Antonio F F F F F 27% 10% 63% C F F A+ C- C- A+ F A+ D+ B+ A B B- 35% 22% 43% B- B- D- C- D F+ F B F
0.87 46% 0% 20% -20 +1 0.63 27% 1.3 .36 16% .62 58% .36 1.05 47% 27% 29% -10 0 0.82 35% 0.9 .33 14% .58 68% .39
Nov
29		 Houston Christian C+ C- F A C 46% 9% 44% B C+ C C C A+ B- F D B C+ A A- B 52% 9% 39% F C+ C- B- C A C- B- C
1.20 60% 20% 42% +4 +2 1.15 32% 1.1 .35 12% .31 56% .17 0.93 54% 25% 28% -7 +3 0.93 30% 0.8 .24 22% .29 67% .19
Dec
3		 Louisiana Tech B A+ A+ F A- 35% 6% 59% B+ A- D- A+ B- B- C+ A- B- D+ D- F B- F 45% 14% 41% F+ F A+ A A+ D D+ A+ C+
1.15 76% 67% 28% +2 +2 1.10 27% 1.5 .40 16% .32 78% .25 1.03 64% 71% 30% +5 +1 1.14 23% 0.6 .13 16% .30 53% .16
Dec
6		 Gardner-Webb C- F A+ B+ F+ 51% 7% 42% A D F A+ D A A+ F+ A F C A+ F F+ 60% 6% 33% F F C- F D C F F F
1.18 50% 50% 39% 0 +3 1.07 23% 1.4 .31 11% .42 68% .28 1.12 55% 0% 44% +1 +3 1.10 24% 1.1 .28 20% .47 82% .38
Dec
13		 West Georgia B+ D+ A+ C- D+ 45% 5% 49% B+ C- B A+ A C+ B- A- B+ F+ C- A- D D+ 38% 27% 35% F+ D F D- F A+ F F F
1.25 56% 67% 33% 0 +2 1.07 35% 1.3 .46 14% .37 78% .29 1.17 56% 31% 35% -2 -1 0.96 49% 1.2 .57 23% .36 95% .34
Dec
18		 Georgia St. A+ F F A- F 40% 2% 58% A D- A B- A A+ A+ A+ A+ C- F A+ C- F 29% 15% 56% F F D+ A+ B+ A- B- A B+
1.34 32% 0% 39% -7 +2 0.94 44% 1.1 .47 10% .58 89% .52 1.00 71% 14% 33% 0 0 1.02 30% 0.7 .22 21% .26 71% .19
Dec
20		 James Madison B D A+ F D- 51% 8% 41% A D+ D+ C- D+ A A+ B+ A+ D- C- F A+ A- 54% 8% 38% F B- F D+ F C+ F D F
1.22 50% 80% 25% -6 +2 0.95 27% 1.0 .27 8% .54 77% .41 1.17 59% 50% 21% -6 +3 0.96 45% 1.1 .50 18% .59 74% .43
Jan
1		 Coastal Carolina C+ C- A F D 29% 31% 40% C- D C+ A B C- A+ B- A+ C- B A+ D+ A- 35% 35% 30% B- A- F D+ F C F D- F
1.07 53% 50% 22% -5 -2 0.88 29% 1.3 .36 13% .48 75% .36 1.06 50% 20% 35% -9 -2 0.81 41% 1.0 .41 16% .42 78% .33
Jan
3		 Old Dominion B- C B+ C B- 46% 21% 32% C+ B- C B- C+ B- A A- A+ C B A- A A 38% 28% 34% C- A- D+ D+ D+ F D- F F
1.15 62% 42% 33% +2 0 1.07 32% 1.1 .34 14% .43 80% .34 1.06 52% 28% 27% -9 -1 0.83 27% 1.2 .31 11% .35 80% .28
Jan
10		 South Alabama D D- F F F 24% 2% 75% B F+ F+ B- D A- A+ F+ A F+ D F F F 53% 27% 20% B- F F+ A+ B A+ F C+ F
0.98 54% 0% 27% -10 +1 0.85 24% 1.2 .28 14% .35 68% .24 1.20 63% 50% 60% +14 0 1.29 30% 0.8 .22 19% .43 64% .27
Jan
15		 Old Dominion B D A+ A+ A 44% 12% 44% B+ A C+ D C- C- A+ F+ A- F B- C- F F 40% 15% 45% F F F A- D+ C- B A- B+
1.22 55% 50% 45% +7 +2 1.20 32% 0.9 .29 15% .47 68% .32 1.18 55% 38% 48% +8 +1 1.20 33% 0.9 .31 15% .25 67% .17
Jan
17		 Coastal Carolina D F C F F 37% 18% 46% A F C+ C+ B- A+ A+ F C+ D A F A+ C+ 19% 38% 43% A+ B F A- C- A- F F F
1.01 38% 40% 27% -12 0 0.79 30% 1.1 .32 7% .40 57% .23 1.07 44% 50% 25% -4 -4 0.87 34% 0.8 .26 20% .64 82% .52
Jan
22		 Arkansas St. F D- F F F 43% 6% 51% A+ F B+ A A C- A F+ B D+ B- F F F 47% 8% 45% F F A- A+ A+ B+ F+ F F
0.91 52% 0% 11% -22 +2 0.62 33% 1.3 .42 16% .42 65% .27 1.14 54% 75% 43% +7 +2 1.22 31% 0.7 .22 23% .40 83% .33
Jan
24		 Troy B+ B- A+ D- C+ 31% 8% 61% B B- D+ A+ A+ A B- A- B F C+ D D+ 50% 0% 50% F D F F F A- F D+ F
1.22 60% 100% 30% +2 +1 1.08 29% 1.8 .52 13% .31 76% .23 1.30 55% 36% 0 +4 1.09 50% 1.2 .59 20% .47 75% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
30		 Louisiana Monroe D- C- A+ F F 35% 23% 42% D- F F A- D F+ A+ A- A+ C D- B- B- D 43% 18% 39% D D D- C D+ B+ F F F
1.07 59% 55% 20% -5 -1 0.92 26% 1.3 .35 19% .57 76% .43 1.03 62% 33% 32% -1 +1 1.02 29% 1.0 .29 20% .46 81% .37
Jan
31		 Louisiana F+ F D- C F 38% 21% 42% D F C- C- C- F F+ A+ C- D- C- F+ F F 39% 28% 33% F F B F D+ C- D C- D
0.97 44% 30% 35% -6 0 0.90 30% 1.0 .30 23% .31 87% .27 1.11 56% 46% 47% +8 -1 1.15 23% 1.2 .27 16% .27 71% .19
Feb
4		 Texas St. D- D A+ F+ D+ 39% 14% 47% C D+ F A D- A- B C B- D- B+ B+ A A 57% 18% 24% F B F F F C F F F
1.02 53% 71% 30% 0 +1 1.04 16% 1.2 .19 14% .37 73% .27 1.11 50% 33% 25% -9 +2 0.88 39% 1.4 .55 19% .39 91% .35
Feb
11		 Appalachian St. D- D F B- D+ 42% 9% 49% A- C- C+ F F F F D F F D+ B- B- D+ 49% 7% 44% F D F C+ D C- F F F
0.98 50% 0% 36% -5 +2 0.95 32% 0.5 .15 18% .17 67% .11 1.22 64% 33% 30% 0 +3 1.07 37% 1.0 .37 15% .50 71% .36
Feb
14		 Marshall A- B- F A+ A+ 37% 8% 56% A A+ D+ C- D+ C A+ A+ A+ C- A F+ D+ B- 34% 19% 47% D- C+ B+ A+ A+ D+ F F+ F
1.30 63% 25% 48% +13 +2 1.31 31% 0.9 .28 17% .50 81% .40 1.12 50% 45% 37% +1 0 1.03 27% 0.8 .22 15% .38 80% .31
Feb
19		 Georgia St. F F F F+ F 38% 7% 55% B F F D F A+ D- D- F+ B- A+ B+ B+ B+ 32% 30% 38% C- B+ D C- D F+ D+ F F
0.93 43% 25% 29% -11 +2 0.84 24% 0.9 .21 9% .24 67% .16 0.96 39% 29% 29% -12 -2 0.75 31% 1.1 .33 13% .32 95% .30
Feb
21		 Appalachian St. C B- F B C+ 28% 11% 61% C+ C+ D- F F+ D- C A+ B+ F F A+ C- F 40% 13% 47% D F D D+ D B- F F F
1.04 60% 0% 36% -2 0 1.00 24% 0.7 .16 17% .27 88% .24 1.25 83% 17% 33% +7 +1 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 17% .63 78% .49



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 2.1 2.1 7th
8th 2.8 4.1 6.9 8th
9th 15.7 0.3 15.9 9th
10th 8.0 14.5 22.5 10th
11th 33.9 3.5 37.4 11th
12th 14.2 0.1 14.3 12th
13th 0.9 0.9 13th
14th 14th
Total 57.0 36.6 6.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 6.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4
8-10 36.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 36.5
7-11 57.0% 57.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.5 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 57.0%