Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.6 #260
Expected Predictive Rating -3.7 #221
Pace 74.6 #43
Improvement -2.7 #293

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #199 D+ C B- B- B
Defense #303 D+ D B- D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #163 1.01 #336 -2.5 #269
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #328 0.94 #15 -1.8 #277
Three Pointers 48% #41 0.89 #327 +0.6 #154
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #292 -3.7 #292
Freethrows 0.34 #52 72% #208 0.25 #83
Second Chance 28.4% #247 1.11 #74 0.32 #168
Turnovers 15.5% #109
Total Offense -1.2 #199

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #52 1.22 #263 -4.3 #317
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #319 0.85 #313 +1.2 #99
Three Pointers 41% #198 1.05 #227 -0.4 #202
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #294 -3.5 #293
Freethrows 0.36 #321 74% #272 0.26 #328
Second Chance 36.0% #342 1.04 #197 0.37 #314
Turnovers 18.6% #75
Total Defense -4.4 #303

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #55 2.0% #340
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.2% #325 5.0% #276
Possession Length 16.3 #79 16.8 #112
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #269 0.20 #267
Improvement -2.0 #298 -0.7 #228

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.4
.500 or above 54.8% 69.3% 31.7%
.500 or above in Conference 51.6% 66.1% 28.5%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round1.2% 1.6% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 61.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 63 - 8
Quad 412 - 715 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 247 @East Carolina L 89 - 92 36% -2  0 - 1 -5 +6 C B+ C -11 D+ F D+
 Sat, Nov 8 209 UNC Asheville W 93 - 90 52% -1  1 - 1 -3 +5 C F A+ -9 F+ F A-
 Tue, Nov 11 223 @Florida Gulf Coast W 95 - 94 31% +3  2 - 1 +1 +17 A+ D B- -16 D+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 115 @Georgia Tech L 66 - 68 14% +1  2 - 2 +4 -6 D- B D- +11 A+ C- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 101 @Florida St. L 72 - 98 11% -14  2 - 3 -18 -9 D- F C- -5 C- C C-
 Mon, Nov 24 225 Youngstown St. L 61 - 67 42% -4  2 - 4 -10 -11 F F C +1 C- F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 342 Texas San Antonio L 64 - 77 72% +1  2 - 5 -25 -16 F C- C -8 C+ D- F+
 Sat, Nov 29 297 Houston Christian W 80 - 62 70% +6  3 - 5 +7 +3 C- C A+ +5 B- C+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 215 Louisiana Tech W 77 - 69 53% +4  4 - 5 +2 +7 A- C+ C -5 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 363 @Gardner-Webb W 88 - 84 82% +3  5 - 5 -11 +2 D+ D- B+ -14 F D+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 325 @West Georgia W 91 - 85 56% +9  6 - 5 -1 +11 C- A C+ -12 D+ F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 268 Georgia St. W 90 - 67 63% +8  7 - 5 1 - 0 +14 +18 D A- A+ -3 F B+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 205 James Madison W 96 - 92 OT 50% -3  8 - 5 2 - 0 -2 +8 D+ C- A -10 B- F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 239 @Coastal Carolina W 82 - 81 OT 34% +3  9 - 5 3 - 0 -0 +3 D B C- -4 A- F C
 Sat, Jan 3 243 @Old Dominion W 93 - 86 35% +13  10 - 5 4 - 0 +5 +8 B- C+ C+ -3 B+ D F
 Sat, Jan 10 194 @South Alabama L 71 - 87 27% -9  10 - 6 4 - 1 -15 -2 F+ D A -13 F B A
 Thu, Jan 15 243 Old Dominion W 87 - 84 58% -2  11 - 6 5 - 1 -5 +10 A C- C- -14 F D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 239 Coastal Carolina L 75 - 79 OT 57% +2  11 - 7 5 - 2 -11 -4 F C+ A+ -7 B- C- A-
 Thu, Jan 22 168 Arkansas St. L 68 - 85 43% -9  11 - 8 5 - 3 -21 -12 F A D+ -8 F A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 140 Troy L 78 - 83 36% -4  11 - 9 5 - 4 -7 +11 C+ A+ A+ -19 D+ F B+
 Fri, Jan 30 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 79 - 76 73% +2  12 - 9 6 - 4 -9 -4 F D+ D- -5 D D B+
 Sat, Jan 31 303 @Louisiana L 60 - 69 48% -6  12 - 10 6 - 5 -14 -5 F C- F -10 F D+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 259 Texas St. W 77 - 74 61%
 Wed, Feb 11 172 Appalachian St. L 70 - 72 45%
 Sat, Feb 14 153 Marshall L 79 - 82 41%
 Thu, Feb 19 268 @Georgia St. L 77 - 79 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 172 @Appalachian St. L 67 - 75 23%
 Wed, Feb 25 205 @James Madison L 75 - 81 29%
 Fri, Feb 27 153 @Marshall L 76 - 85 21%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 -6 -1 D+ C B- -4 D+ D B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.8 3.1 0.3 4.2 3rd
4th 0.0 4.0 1.9 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.9 7.1 0.3 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 5.5 4.1 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.6 10.8 0.8 12.2 7th
8th 0.0 4.3 7.3 0.0 11.7 8th
9th 0.3 10.5 1.9 12.7 9th
10th 2.6 8.7 0.1 11.4 10th
11th 0.4 6.9 2.9 10.2 11th
12th 2.1 5.8 0.2 8.1 12th
13th 2.1 1.0 3.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 4.6 16.6 27.3 26.5 16.8 6.7 1.4 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 40.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 17.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 10.8% 10.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.4% 10.6% 10.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
11-7 6.7% 5.8% 5.8% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 6.3
10-8 16.8% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 16.4
9-9 26.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.1 0.2 26.3
8-10 27.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 27.2
7-11 16.6% 16.6
6-12 4.6% 4.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.4 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 4.6%