Georgia St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.0 #304
Expected Predictive Rating -8.4 #296
Pace 71.8 #104
Improvement +5.7 #4

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #325 F D+ C- C- F
Defense #232 C D+ C C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #363 1.07 #279 -7.6 #357
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #60 0.66 #289 +1.3 #109
Three Pointers 46% #94 0.85 #329 -1.4 #233
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #355 -7.8 #354
Freethrows 15.4 #284 78% #37 12.0 #216
Second Chance 25.7% #312 1.08 #147 0.28 #272
Turnovers 17.7% #249
Total Offense -6.0 #325

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #131 1.17 #186 -1.3 #228
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #240 0.66 #61 +1.7 #73
Three Pointers 41% #170 1.05 #243 -1.0 #218
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #196 -0.6 #197
Freethrows 17.7 #202 76% #310 13.4 #123
Second Chance 34.3% #301 1.04 #191 0.36 #265
Turnovers 16.2% #204
Total Defense -1.9 #232

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #340 0.9% #256
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.5% #345 0.3% #184
Possession Length 17.6 #208 16.3 #49
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #323 0.18 #225
Improvement +4.4 #5 +1.3 #93

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.6
.500 or above 0.5% 1.2% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 22.0% 36.6% 14.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.2% 4.3%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Home) - 33.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 102 - 13
Quad 47 - 89 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 197 @Eastern Michigan L 49 - 71 20%  -8  0 - 1 -21 -21 F F F -1 A+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 7 58 @Cincinnati L 64 - 74 4%  -6  0 - 2 +2 -2 D B+ D +5 A- C- A+
 Mon, Nov 10 289 Presbyterian L 61 - 63 59%  +5  0 - 3 -12 -5 F C D+ -7 D- F A
 Mon, Nov 17 88 @Arizona St. L 62 - 75 6%  +1  0 - 4 -3 -9 D F F +5 C A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 173 @South Dakota St. L 58 - 105 18%  -28  0 - 5 -45 -16 F F C- -28 F A- F
 Tue, Nov 25 229 Samford L 63 - 78 34%  -7  0 - 6 -19 -13 F C C- -6 D F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 136 New Mexico St. L 58 - 77 19%  -9  0 - 7 -18 -18 F F C- +2 C+ B F
 Tue, Dec 2 160 @Mercer L 67 - 78 16%  -5  0 - 8 -8 -6 C- F D -2 B+ D+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 162 @Kennesaw St. L 69 - 92 16%  -16  0 - 9 -20 -14 F B B -3 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 208 Jacksonville St. W 77 - 73 41%  +5  1 - 9 -2 +7 F B+ A+ -9 B- F F
 Thu, Dec 18 213 @Georgia Southern L 67 - 90 22%  -8  1 - 10 0 - 1 -23 -5 C- F D- -19 B- F F
 Sat, Dec 20 224 @Appalachian St. W 70 - 63 23%  +4  2 - 10 1 - 1 +7 +2 B+ F F +5 C A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 31 159 @Marshall L 80 - 84 16%  -2  2 - 11 1 - 2 -1 +3 D+ A D -4 C- F B+
 Sat, Jan 3 270 @Coastal Carolina W 89 - 71 33%  -1  3 - 11 2 - 2 +15 +24 A+ A+ B+ -8 C F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 224 Appalachian St. L 50 - 52 44%  +2  3 - 12 2 - 3 -8 -17 F C- A- +9 A+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 10 159 Marshall L 73 - 78 33% 
 Sat, Jan 17 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 80 - 77 60% 
 Thu, Jan 22 201 Southern Miss L 72 - 75 41% 
 Sat, Jan 24 126 Arkansas St. L 76 - 83 27% 
 Thu, Jan 29 310 @Louisiana L 65 - 67 42% 
 Sat, Jan 31 200 @South Alabama L 63 - 72 21% 
 Wed, Feb 4 137 Troy L 69 - 75 28% 
 Sat, Feb 7 325 Northern Illinois W 76 - 71 69% 
 Thu, Feb 12 204 @James Madison L 69 - 77 22% 
 Sat, Feb 14 250 @Old Dominion L 72 - 78 29% 
 Thu, Feb 19 213 Georgia Southern L 78 - 80 43% 
 Sat, Feb 21 204 James Madison L 72 - 74 41% 
 Tue, Feb 24 270 Coastal Carolina W 72 - 71 56% 
 Fri, Feb 27 250 Old Dominion W 75 - 74 50% 
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 11 -8 -6 F D+ C- -2 C D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 4.6 1.3 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.6 3.4 0.1 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 5.0 6.0 0.7 0.0 12.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.8 7.6 2.4 0.1 14.1 10th
11th 0.2 3.0 8.4 4.5 0.3 16.4 11th
12th 0.2 2.4 6.9 4.8 0.7 0.0 15.1 12th
13th 0.3 2.2 4.9 3.4 0.8 0.0 11.6 13th
14th 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 14th
Total 0.6 3.0 7.8 13.7 18.4 18.8 15.8 11.2 6.4 3.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 63.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 21.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 6.5% 6.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.9% 6.5% 6.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-7 3.0% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.0
10-8 6.4% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.4
9-9 11.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.1
8-10 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.8
7-11 18.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.8
6-12 18.4% 18.4
5-13 13.7% 13.7
4-14 7.8% 7.8
3-15 3.0% 3.0
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.7 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%