Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.6 306
Results Rating -9.4 316
Pace 60.7 352
Improvement +2.5 89

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 306 D C- C- D+ C
Defense D+ 280 D- C+ D D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 149 D+ 54% 281 -1.0 223
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 176 C- 37% 204 +0.1 176
Three Pointers 39% 217 D- 30% 330 -3.3 299
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 191 D -4.2 315
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 313
Second Chance C- 28.3% 237 C 1.04 159 C- 0.30 213
Turnovers C- 17.5% 227
Freethrows D+ 0.28 246 C- 71% 244 D+ 0.20 257
Total Offense D -5.2 306

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F+ 34% 348 C+ 10.3% 140
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 129 B 3.1% 56
Three Pointers D- 76% 334 B+ 0.2% 34
Total F+ 45% 349 B- 4.8% 94

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 24 D 64% 327 +6.5 355
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 190 C+ 37% 140 -0.4 160
Three Pointers 35% 336 D- 38% 339 -0.9 141
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 266 D- +4.5 334
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 333
Second Chance C 30.7% 198 B- 0.95 67 C+ 0.29 121
Turnovers D 14.8% 302
Freethrows D- 0.37 336 B 69% 44 D 0.26 311
Total Defense D+ -3.4 280

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 153 D+ 9.0% 251
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 213 C 5.3% 143
Three Pointers C- 85% 207 D 0.2% 329
Total C+ 54% 146 C- 5.2% 205

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.5 353 17.3 177
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 320 0.15 106
Improvement +1.6 #108 +0.9 #132

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 319 307 288
Results Rating Rank 332 311 291
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 11 9 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 2% 0% 7%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 67.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 30 - 70 - 13
Quad 410 - 810 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 39 @Miami (FL) L 69 - 86 2% -9  5% 0 - 1 C -1 D+ -3 B- D C B- +3 C F A
 Tue, Nov 11 90 @High Point L 64 - 85 6% -11  17% 0 - 2 D- -12 F+ -9 F D+ B- D+ -4 B A- F
 Sat, Nov 15 358 @VMI W 69 - 67 67% +3  84% 1 - 2 D -11 F -11 D A- F C -0 D F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 105 @George Mason L 57 - 79 8% -12  0% 1 - 3 F+ -15 F -11 D- C- F D -5 F A+ A-
 Mon, Nov 24 240 Bethune-Cookman W 69 - 64 34% -2  26% 2 - 3 C +1 C- -1 C+ D C+ B- +2 C+ A F+
 Tue, Nov 25 117 Pacific L 53 - 68 14% -7  5% 2 - 4 D- -12 F -12 F F+ B- C- -2 B- B- F+
 Tue, Dec 2 328 Florida A&M W 85 - 82 OT 69% -0  49% 3 - 4 D -11 C +1 D C+ A+ F -12 F B B-
 Sat, Dec 6 184 @Florida International L 65 - 88 17% -18  3% 3 - 5 F -22 D- -7 F B- F F -15 F A D+
 Sun, Dec 14 34 @Texas A&M L 75 - 112 2% -24  2% 3 - 6 F -20 C +0 A- D- F F -17 F F C+
 Wed, Dec 17 328 @Florida A&M L 65 - 72 47% -9  0% 3 - 7 F+ -15 D- -7 D+ F C F+ -8 F A F
 Mon, Dec 22 80 @Florida St. L 63 - 87 5% -18  0% 3 - 8 D- -14 D+ -3 D F A+ F -12 D C- D+
 Thu, Jan 1 188 @Lipscomb L 57 - 76 18% -9  2% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F+ -18 D- -6 D- C+ F F -15 F A F
 Sat, Jan 3 157 @Austin Peay L 68 - 71 14% -2  22% 3 - 10 0 - 2 C -0 D+ -4 B B+ F B +4 B+ A F
 Thu, Jan 8 212 Queens L 51 - 77 39% -15  0% 3 - 11 0 - 3 F -32 F -29 F C- F D -5 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 317 West Georgia W 75 - 43 65% +17  99% 4 - 11 1 - 3 A +19 B +7 A- F A+ A+ +18 B+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 183 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 62 17% +5  70% 4 - 12 1 - 4 C -0 D+ -3 F B A+ B- +2 D A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 342 @North Alabama W 90 - 68 53% +13  85% 5 - 12 2 - 4 B+ +13 A +13 B- A+ C C+ +1 C C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 22 285 Bellarmine L 70 - 77 57% -1  32% 5 - 13 2 - 5 F+ -17 F+ -9 F C- B F+ -9 F C- B-
 Sat, Jan 24 279 Eastern Kentucky W 81 - 76 OT 54% -3  13% 6 - 13 3 - 5 C- -5 C- -1 C A F D+ -3 D F A
 Thu, Jan 29 188 Lipscomb W 70 - 65 35% +8  97% 7 - 13 4 - 5 C +0 B- +4 B C A+ C- -3 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 31 251 Florida Gulf Coast L 49 - 68 47% -3  44% 7 - 14 4 - 6 F -27 F -28 F F F C+ +0 B- C+ F+
 Thu, Feb 5 212 @Queens L 84 - 93 20% -11  1% 7 - 15 4 - 7 D -9 C+ +3 C+ C D F -12 F B+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 317 @West Georgia L 73 - 87 42% -6  4% 7 - 16 4 - 8 F -21 D+ -3 F+ B D+ F -18 D+ F F
 Wed, Feb 11 326 @Stetson L 62 - 67 46% -5  6% 7 - 17 4 - 9 D- -13 F -11 F C- C+ C- -2 D- B+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 340 North Florida W 63 - 56 73% +4  92% 8 - 17 5 - 9 D+ -8 F -12 F A D+ B+ +5 D+ C+ A-
 Wed, Feb 18 251 @Florida Gulf Coast L 84 - 86 26% -4  7% 8 - 18 5 - 10 C- -4 A +12 A+ D- A- F -16 F C- F
 Sat, Feb 21 157 Austin Peay L 61 - 65 30% -3  30% 8 - 19 5 - 11 D+ -7 D -5 F+ C+ A C- -3 C+ C- F
 Thu, Feb 26 326 Stetson W 72 - 67 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 340 @North Florida W 77 - 76 52%
Totals 9 - 20 6 - 12 -9 D -5 F+ D C D+ -3 D- C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ C- D- D 39% 38% 39% C D C- C C- C- D+ C- D+ D+ D C+ D- D- 45% 20% 35% D+ D- C B- C+ D D- B D
1.01 54% 37% 30% -4 0 0.93 28% 1.0 .30 18% .28 71% .20 1.14 64% 37% 38% +4 +1 1.12 31% 1.0 .29 15% .37 69% .20
Nov
3		 Miami (FL) D+ A+ D+ D- B- 33% 17% 50% B B- F+ B+ D C C- F F+ B- F C- A+ C+ 61% 11% 27% F C B F F A F F F
0.94 72% 33% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.2 .19 19% .23 50% .12 1.17 74% 40% 17% +3 +3 1.14 35% 2.0 .70 20% .63 78% .49
Nov
11		 High Point F+ F+ F D- F 32% 8% 60% C+ F C D- D+ B- C- D+ D+ D+ B- A+ C- B+ 48% 13% 38% C- B A B- A- F F C- F
0.93 50% 0% 30% -9 +1 0.86 32% 0.9 .29 20% .29 69% .20 1.23 56% 14% 35% -4 +2 0.98 25% 1.1 .28 4% .46 77% .35
Nov
15		 VMI F B- F D+ D- 40% 13% 47% B D C A+ A- F F F F C B D- D+ D- 35% 24% 41% B+ D D- F F A+ A- F B-
1.04 67% 33% 33% +2 +1 1.09 39% 1.3 .52 29% .21 50% .11 1.01 47% 42% 35% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.4 .43 23% .21 82% .17
Nov
18		 George Mason F F A+ F F+ 50% 19% 31% A- D- A+ F C- F A- A+ A+ D F C F F 47% 21% 32% D+ F C- A+ A+ A- F A+ F
0.87 48% 50% 23% -8 +1 0.88 39% 0.6 .23 29% .32 87% .28 1.21 83% 38% 58% +23 +1 1.50 32% 0.4 .12 20% .67 63% .42
Nov
24		 Bethune-Cookman C- B+ F D+ C+ 53% 13% 34% B C+ C- D- D C+ A+ F C+ B- F C A+ C 36% 28% 36% B+ C+ B A+ A F+ F A+ C
1.07 64% 17% 31% -1 +2 1.04 30% 1.0 .30 14% .45 56% .25 0.99 72% 36% 22% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.7 .16 14% .43 50% .22
Nov
25		 Pacific F A+ F F F 30% 40% 30% F+ F F+ F+ F+ B- C+ B- B- C- F F A+ B- 32% 18% 50% C+ B- F A+ B- F+ F B- F
0.87 79% 21% 14% -10 -3 0.77 17% 0.8 .14 13% .34 72% .25 1.12 71% 63% 23% 0 0 1.02 50% 0.6 .31 16% .45 74% .34
Dec
2		 Florida A&M C C- F B D 39% 12% 49% B- D C+ C+ C+ A+ D F F+ F F A+ F F 33% 28% 39% B- F A+ F B B- A+ A+ A+
1.15 57% 14% 38% -1 +1 1.03 33% 1.0 .33 12% .29 68% .20 1.11 83% 20% 62% +20 -1 1.39 8% 2.0 .16 23% .11 50% .05
Dec
6		 Florida International D- F F C F 23% 19% 58% F+ F A- D+ B- F D+ F D- F F+ A+ F F 48% 18% 34% D+ F A+ C+ A D+ F F F
0.95 33% 30% 33% -8 -1 0.85 43% 0.9 .41 26% .28 64% .18 1.29 67% 25% 67% +18 +1 1.41 23% 1.0 .23 16% .52 77% .40
Dec
14		 Texas A&M C D+ A+ B+ B+ 39% 12% 49% B+ A- D+ F D- F C+ A+ B F D F F F 43% 17% 41% B+ F F F F C+ D B+ C-
0.98 53% 67% 38% +4 +1 1.12 26% 0.7 .18 25% .30 82% .24 1.46 65% 67% 50% +18 +1 1.39 52% 1.2 .64 16% .36 70% .25
Dec
17		 Florida A&M D- F F A+ D- 49% 11% 40% B+ D+ F F F C D C- D F+ F D C F 39% 31% 31% B- F C A+ A F F A F
1.00 48% 0% 47% -1 +2 1.04 23% 0.6 .13 18% .30 75% .23 1.10 68% 40% 33% +4 -1 1.08 27% 0.4 .10 12% .51 59% .30
Dec
22		 Florida St. D+ A+ A+ F C- 15% 32% 53% F D D F F A+ D+ C D+ F F B C D- 29% 12% 59% B D F A+ C- D+ F D F
0.97 88% 59% 18% -2 -3 0.92 24% 0.6 .14 11% .24 71% .17 1.34 80% 33% 33% +5 +1 1.14 46% 0.9 .40 12% .46 77% .35
Jan
1		 Lipscomb D- B- F+ D- D 27% 24% 49% D+ D- B+ D+ C+ F C- D D+ F F A F F 40% 16% 44% B- F B- A+ A F B- F C
0.97 64% 30% 30% -3 -1 0.93 38% 0.9 .34 25% .27 67% .18 1.29 75% 25% 45% +12 +1 1.28 21% 0.7 .14 7% .20 91% .18
Jan
3		 Austin Peay D+ B- D A+ B+ 38% 20% 42% C- B C- A+ B+ F A F C B C- A+ A B+ 44% 20% 35% C- B+ A- A+ A F D- D F+
0.99 65% 33% 42% +7 0 1.16 29% 1.1 .32 25% .38 55% .21 1.03 58% 18% 26% -8 0 0.87 23% 0.9 .20 12% .36 77% .28
Jan
8		 Queens F F F F F 48% 16% 36% B- F C- D+ C- F B F F D B- F F F 44% 4% 52% F F B+ A+ A+ C+ C A+ B+
0.78 43% 29% 25% -14 +1 0.77 32% 1.0 .32 20% .38 45% .17 1.18 57% 50% 52% +14 +3 1.35 25% 0.4 .11 17% .31 59% .18
Jan
10		 West Georgia B F A+ A+ A+ 43% 26% 32% D- A- F A+ F A+ D- A D+ A+ F A+ A+ A 40% 31% 29% D- B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A- F
1.27 45% 58% 60% +12 0 1.26 13% 1.3 .17 8% .28 80% .22 0.73 71% 18% 10% -11 -1 0.77 19% 0.8 .15 25% .50 64% .32
Jan
15		 Central Arkansas D+ F A+ F F 34% 13% 53% C F A F+ B A+ B B+ B+ B- D F B D- 43% 25% 33% B- D D A+ A+ C+ F D+ F
1.02 31% 50% 24% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.0 .39 10% .32 76% .25 1.05 65% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 31% 0.5 .16 17% .43 71% .31
Jan
17		 North Alabama A D- C+ A+ C+ 61% 14% 25% B+ B- C A+ A+ C B- A+ A C+ C F A+ C+ 53% 11% 36% F C A+ F C+ D- F F F
1.34 52% 43% 54% +4 +2 1.16 35% 1.9 .65 15% .31 89% .28 1.01 54% 60% 19% -8 +2 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 15% .52 77% .40
Jan
22		 Bellarmine F+ D- A F F 43% 13% 43% B+ F F A+ C- B C A+ A+ F+ B D+ F F 56% 11% 33% D- F D- B+ C- B- C+ F+ C
1.12 55% 50% 30% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.8 .38 13% .31 100% .31 1.23 56% 40% 60% +12 +2 1.31 25% 1.0 .25 18% .27 86% .23
Jan
24		 Eastern Kentucky C- D- A+ C- B- 30% 43% 27% F C B+ A- A F A+ B A+ D+ C F+ D- D 40% 24% 36% D D F D+ F A F C F
1.18 54% 63% 33% +9 -4 1.14 39% 1.2 .46 20% .55 77% .42 1.11 56% 45% 38% +3 0 1.07 40% 1.2 .47 22% .52 71% .37
Jan
29		 Lipscomb B- B C+ C+ B- 43% 21% 36% B- B D+ B+ C A+ C A B- C- C D- A+ B 58% 10% 32% F B- B+ F F F B A- B+
1.16 65% 40% 35% +4 0 1.11 29% 1.1 .32 12% .28 80% .22 1.08 59% 40% 25% -4 +3 1.00 19% 2.0 .38 12% .19 70% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Florida Gulf Coast F C- A+ F F 34% 30% 36% F+ F D F F F D- F F C+ C+ A+ D- B 48% 25% 27% F+ B- A F C+ F+ F A+ F
0.74 56% 50% 6% -12 -1 0.74 26% 0.7 .18 24% .30 53% .16 1.03 57% 25% 38% -2 0 0.98 22% 1.4 .31 14% .44 60% .26
Feb
5		 Queens C+ D A A+ B- 38% 27% 36% D- C+ F A+ C D A+ A+ A+ F F A F F 43% 26% 30% B+ F B+ B+ B+ F F B- F+
1.19 53% 50% 44% +6 -1 1.13 24% 1.5 .36 17% .50 86% .43 1.32 74% 29% 50% +12 0 1.25 25% 1.0 .25 7% .40 73% .29
Feb
7		 West Georgia D+ D+ F F F 56% 14% 30% B F+ B- B- B D+ A+ D A- F D+ A- C- C- 46% 28% 26% F D+ F F F F F C- F
1.08 57% 29% 27% -5 +2 0.96 34% 1.1 .37 16% .44 68% .30 1.29 57% 31% 33% -3 0 0.96 47% 1.2 .58 12% .54 72% .39
Feb
11		 Stetson F C+ F F F 42% 25% 33% D+ F B- F+ C- C+ A C+ A- C- B+ F+ F D- 35% 23% 43% C D- B- A+ B+ F F A+ F
0.99 65% 17% 13% -13 0 0.75 37% 1.0 .37 14% .35 74% .26 1.07 50% 44% 41% +3 0 1.08 24% 0.8 .18 14% .60 56% .34
Feb
14		 North Florida F F C C- F 35% 16% 49% C- F F A+ A D+ C A B- B+ A- F F C 64% 2% 33% F D+ F A+ C+ A- A+ A+ A+
1.08 40% 43% 33% -6 0 0.91 27% 2.1 .58 14% .28 79% .22 0.96 48% 100% 43% 0 +4 1.10 33% 0.8 .26 22% .13 50% .07
Feb
18		 Florida Gulf Coast A A+ A+ A- A+ 44% 25% 31% D+ A+ F B D- A- A F D+ F F F A F 50% 26% 24% F+ F F A C- F F D+ F
1.28 81% 50% 40% +16 0 1.33 21% 1.2 .24 12% .45 54% .24 1.31 74% 58% 27% +11 0 1.24 40% 0.8 .33 12% .48 75% .36
Feb
21		 Austin Peay D C F F F 60% 12% 29% A F+ B- C C+ A A+ B+ A+ C- D- A+ A+ B 57% 14% 30% F C+ F+ A- C- F F A+ D+
1.01 60% 20% 17% -8 +3 0.90 35% 0.8 .26 13% .44 74% .32 1.08 64% 0% 23% -7 +2 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 7% .41 61% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 7.0 7.0 6th
7th 1.3 18.9 20.2 7th
8th 8.9 8.8 17.7 8th
9th 21.7 1.1 22.8 9th
10th 10.4 16.3 26.7 10th
11th 5.7 5.7 11th
12th 12th
Total 16.0 48.3 35.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 35.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.5 35.2
6-12 48.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.5 47.7
5-13 16.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 15.9
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 98.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.6%
Lose Out 7.8%