Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.5 #328
Expected Predictive Rating -8.9 #305
Pace 63.0 #333
Improvement -3.1 #327

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #334 D D+ D+ F C
Defense #294 F B D C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #220 1.14 #202 -1.2 #225
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #205 0.67 #279 -1.3 #242
Three Pointers 44% #129 0.89 #307 -1.1 #222
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #275 -3.6 #275
Freethrows 14.4 #319 64% #351 9.2 #341
Second Chance 29.0% #235 0.95 #290 0.27 #274
Turnovers 18.0% #261
Total Offense -6.7 #334

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #137 1.32 #336 -4.3 #318
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #136 0.71 #126 +0.0 #183
Three Pointers 38% #260 1.26 #364 -3.3 #309
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #355 -7.7 #356
Freethrows 18.0 #220 75% #275 13.5 #118
Second Chance 28.2% #97 0.98 #99 0.28 #77
Turnovers 14.8% #289
Total Defense -3.8 #294

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #177 0.0% #168
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.2% #293 15.0% #360
Possession Length 19.1 #339 17.3 #190
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #314 0.15 #114
Improvement -1.6 #279 -1.4 #269

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.8% 1.3% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 10.1% 16.0% 4.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.7% 19.2% 38.2%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Home) - 49.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 49 - 99 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 36 @Miami (FL) L 69 - 86 1%  -9  0 - 1 -0 +1 B+ F C -0 C F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 86 @High Point L 64 - 85 4%  -11  0 - 2 -11 -6 F D+ C -5 A A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 332 @VMI W 69 - 67 39%  +3  1 - 2 -6 -5 C- A F -0 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 92 @George Mason L 57 - 79 5%  -12  1 - 3 -13 -8 D C F -7 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 278 Bethune-Cookman W 69 - 64 35%  -2  2 - 3 -2 -2 C- D- B- +1 C+ A- D-
 Tue, Nov 25 144 Pacific L 53 - 68 14%  -7  2 - 4 -14 -12 F F B -4 B- C+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 345 Florida A&M W 85 - 82 OT 66%  -0  3 - 4 -12 +1 D C- A+ -13 F B- A
 Sat, Dec 6 164 @Florida International L 65 - 88 12%  -18  3 - 5 -21 -6 F C F -15 F A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 14 40 @Texas A&M L 75 - 112 2%  -24  3 - 6 -21 +3 B- D- F -21 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 345 @Florida A&M L 65 - 72 43%  -9  3 - 7 -16 -6 D+ F D+ -10 F A F
 Mon, Dec 22 111 @Florida St. L 63 - 87 6%  -18  3 - 8 -17 -2 D F A+ -16 F C D-
 Thu, Jan 1 177 @Lipscomb L 57 - 76 13%  -9  3 - 9 0 - 1 -17 -4 D+ C+ F -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 186 @Austin Peay L 68 - 71 14%  -2  3 - 10 0 - 2 -2 -1 A- B+ F -1 B- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 207 Queens L 51 - 77 31%  -15  3 - 11 0 - 3 -32 -26 F C- F -8 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 297 West Georgia W 71 - 70 50% 
 Thu, Jan 15 261 @Central Arkansas L 65 - 73 23% 
 Sat, Jan 17 293 @North Alabama L 64 - 70 29% 
 Thu, Jan 22 280 Bellarmine L 71 - 72 47% 
 Sat, Jan 24 254 Eastern Kentucky L 71 - 73 43% 
 Thu, Jan 29 177 Lipscomb L 67 - 73 28% 
 Sat, Jan 31 189 Florida Gulf Coast L 69 - 75 31% 
 Thu, Feb 5 207 @Queens L 69 - 80 15% 
 Sat, Feb 7 297 @West Georgia L 67 - 73 29% 
 Thu, Feb 12 337 @Stetson L 68 - 70 43% 
 Sat, Feb 14 350 North Florida W 79 - 74 69% 
 Thu, Feb 19 189 @Florida Gulf Coast L 66 - 78 15% 
 Sat, Feb 21 186 Austin Peay L 65 - 71 30% 
 Thu, Feb 26 337 Stetson W 71 - 67 64% 
 Sat, Feb 28 350 @North Florida L 76 - 77 48% 
Totals 9 - 20 6 - 12 -10 -7 D D+ D+ -4 F B D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 1.1 0.1 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 2.5 0.6 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.2 1.4 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 5.2 3.3 0.2 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 6.2 5.3 0.7 14.0 9th
10th 0.2 2.1 7.1 6.8 1.7 0.1 18.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.5 8.5 7.1 2.0 0.1 21.7 11th
12th 0.3 1.5 4.3 6.3 4.3 1.3 0.1 18.0 12th
Total 0.3 1.5 4.9 10.0 15.0 17.3 16.9 14.0 10.0 5.7 2.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 22.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 12.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 4.9% 4.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.0% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.1 0.9
10-8 2.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.8
9-9 5.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 5.5
8-10 10.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.9
7-11 14.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.0
6-12 16.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.8
5-13 17.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.3
4-14 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.0
3-15 10.0% 10.0
2-16 4.9% 4.9
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%