Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.7 #295
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 #286
Pace 61.5 #346
Improvement +2.8 #68

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #315 D+ C- C- D C
Defense #249 D- B- C- D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #167 1.07 #279 -1.3 #234
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.78 #144 +0.4 #157
Three Pointers 40% #207 0.90 #319 -2.9 #279
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #293 -3.7 #291
Freethrows 0.26 #303 70% #264 0.18 #311
Second Chance 28.7% #239 0.99 #230 0.28 #250
Turnovers 17.5% #236
Total Offense -5.6 #315

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #60 1.29 #332 -5.6 #347
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #176 0.74 #143 +0.2 #176
Three Pointers 36% #307 1.15 #338 +0.0 #178
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #331 -5.3 #332
Freethrows 0.35 #320 71% #90 0.25 #301
Second Chance 28.0% #82 0.95 #83 0.27 #65
Turnovers 15.6% #247
Total Defense -2.1 #249

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #196 0.7% #228
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.3% #303 9.7% #333
Possession Length 19.5 #354 17.0 #136
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #328 0.13 #61
Improvement +0.4 #152 +2.4 #55

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.8% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.2% 3.5% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 33.6% 58.9% 26.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 1.2% 4.6%
First Four2.2% 3.0% 2.0%
First Round1.5% 2.1% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Away) - 22.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 411 - 711 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 40 @Miami (FL) L 69 - 86 3% -9  0 - 1 -1 -0 B- D C -0 C F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 98 @High Point L 64 - 85 8% -11  0 - 2 -13 -7 F D+ C+ -6 B B+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 356 @VMI W 69 - 67 64% +3  1 - 2 -9 -7 D+ B+ F -2 D F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 84 @George Mason L 57 - 79 6% -12  1 - 3 -12 -7 D C F -6 F A+ A
 Mon, Nov 24 236 Bethune-Cookman W 69 - 64 37% -2  2 - 3 +1 +1 C+ D B- +0 C+ A- F+
 Tue, Nov 25 125 Pacific L 53 - 68 17% -7  2 - 4 -13 -11 F F B -4 C+ B- F+
 Tue, Dec 2 317 Florida A&M W 85 - 82 OT 68% -0  3 - 4 -10 +3 C- C A+ -13 F B+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 188 @Florida International L 65 - 88 20% -18  3 - 5 -22 -5 F C+ F -17 F A- C-
 Sun, Dec 14 27 @Texas A&M L 75 - 112 2% -24  3 - 6 -18 +4 B+ D- F -20 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 317 @Florida A&M L 65 - 72 46% -9  3 - 7 -14 -4 C- F C -10 F+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 101 @Florida St. L 63 - 87 8% -18  3 - 8 -16 -2 D F A+ -16 D- C D+
 Thu, Jan 1 178 @Lipscomb L 57 - 76 19% -9  3 - 9 0 - 1 -17 -4 D C F -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 175 @Austin Peay L 68 - 71 18% -2  3 - 10 0 - 2 -1 -1 B B+ F -0 B- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 208 Queens L 51 - 77 43% -15  3 - 11 0 - 3 -32 -25 F C- F -8 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 325 West Georgia W 75 - 43 70% +17  4 - 11 1 - 3 +19 +9 A- F A+ +16 B+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 219 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 62 24% +5  4 - 12 1 - 4 -2 -2 F B- A+ -1 D+ A C
 Sat, Jan 17 326 @North Alabama W 90 - 68 48% +13  5 - 12 2 - 4 +15 +17 B A+ C -1 C B- D
 Thu, Jan 22 305 Bellarmine L 70 - 77 63% -1  5 - 13 2 - 5 -18 -6 F C- B -13 F D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 265 Eastern Kentucky W 81 - 76 OT 55% -3  6 - 13 3 - 5 -4 +2 C A- F -6 D F+ A-
 Thu, Jan 29 178 Lipscomb W 70 - 65 37% +8  7 - 13 4 - 5 +1 +6 B C A+ -5 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 31 223 Florida Gulf Coast L 49 - 68 45% -3  7 - 14 4 - 6 -25 -25 F F F -1 B- C+ D-
 Thu, Feb 5 208 @Queens L 69 - 77 23%
 Sat, Feb 7 325 @West Georgia L 69 - 70 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 329 @Stetson L 68 - 69 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 351 North Florida W 82 - 74 77%
 Thu, Feb 19 223 @Florida Gulf Coast L 66 - 73 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 175 Austin Peay L 66 - 70 37%
 Thu, Feb 26 329 Stetson W 71 - 65 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 351 @North Florida W 79 - 77 57%
Totals 11 - 18 8 - 10 -8 -6 D+ C- C- -2 D- B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.3 0.1 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 8.3 6.2 0.9 17.2 5th
6th 2.0 12.6 10.5 1.4 0.0 26.6 6th
7th 0.2 7.6 9.7 1.1 18.6 7th
8th 2.1 9.2 2.0 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.2 5.4 3.4 0.1 9.1 9th
10th 1.5 4.4 0.4 6.3 10th
11th 0.2 1.9 0.8 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.9 12th
Total 0.6 4.1 12.9 22.7 26.1 20.5 10.1 2.7 0.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.3% 8.1% 8.1% 15.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 2.7% 6.0% 6.0% 15.6 0.1 0.1 2.5
10-8 10.1% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.5 9.6
9-9 20.5% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.8 19.8
8-10 26.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.6 25.5
7-11 22.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 22.3
6-12 12.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.8
5-13 4.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.1
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 16.0 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.5%