Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#182
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#153
Pace68.8#187
Improvement+0.9#139

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#246
First Shot-4.9#309
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#66
Layup/Dunks-2.5#273
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#138
Freethrows-2.8#326
Improvement+0.0#170

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#113
First Shot+0.8#153
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#90
Layups/Dunks-1.9#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#73
Freethrows-0.2#196
Improvement+0.8#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.7% 14.0% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 86.9% 93.0% 78.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.9% 98.8% 94.4%
Conference Champion 14.6% 21.2% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round11.7% 13.9% 8.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Home) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 44 - 9
Quad 414 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 5   @ Florida L 60-81 2%     0 - 1 +2.7 +0.2 +1.6
  Nov 11, 2024 116   @ Furman L 69-78 26%     0 - 2 -3.4 -3.9 +1.0
  Nov 14, 2024 241   South Carolina St. W 71-62 72%     1 - 2 +1.8 -5.9 +7.6
  Nov 20, 2024 134   @ Virginia Tech W 74-64 29%     2 - 2 +14.7 +4.2 +10.6
  Nov 25, 2024 232   Mercer L 89-90 OT 61%     2 - 3 -4.8 +4.7 -9.4
  Nov 26, 2024 292   Siena W 75-64 73%     3 - 3 +3.8 +1.6 +2.4
  Nov 30, 2024 30   @ Georgia L 56-102 7%     3 - 4 -30.3 -6.7 -23.6
  Dec 10, 2024 97   @ Florida Atlantic L 63-85 21%     3 - 5 -14.4 -12.5 -0.3
  Dec 14, 2024 154   East Tennessee St. W 60-52 56%     4 - 5 +5.4 -14.0 +19.5
  Dec 21, 2024 85   @ Central Florida L 66-86 16%     4 - 6 -10.4 -3.8 -6.0
  Jan 02, 2025 96   Lipscomb L 65-70 39%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -3.1 +1.7 -5.5
  Jan 04, 2025 302   Austin Peay W 68-44 83%     5 - 7 1 - 1 +13.1 -5.3 +18.9
  Jan 09, 2025 351   @ Bellarmine W 74-59 81%     6 - 7 2 - 1 +4.8 +3.8 +3.3
  Jan 11, 2025 237   @ Eastern Kentucky W 82-75 50%     7 - 7 3 - 1 +6.0 +5.1 +0.7
  Jan 16, 2025 156   North Alabama W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 18, 2025 343   Central Arkansas W 75-62 89%    
  Jan 23, 2025 347   @ West Georgia W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 225   @ Queens L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 29, 2025 181   Florida Gulf Coast W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 243   North Florida W 82-75 73%    
  Feb 06, 2025 334   @ Stetson W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 08, 2025 351   Bellarmine W 79-64 93%    
  Feb 13, 2025 343   @ Central Arkansas W 72-65 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 156   @ North Alabama L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 18, 2025 181   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 20, 2025 243   @ North Florida W 79-78 53%    
  Feb 24, 2025 237   Eastern Kentucky W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 26, 2025 334   Stetson W 79-66 88%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.8 5.9 3.1 0.8 14.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 8.3 9.2 3.8 0.5 23.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 7.5 8.5 2.0 0.1 20.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 6.3 7.1 2.0 0.1 17.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.6 5.6 1.5 0.1 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.9 1.0 0.1 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.1 5.3 9.6 14.8 18.0 19.9 15.1 9.8 3.6 0.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
16-2 86.0% 3.1    2.2 0.9 0.0
15-3 60.0% 5.9    2.8 2.7 0.4 0.0
14-4 25.1% 3.8    0.9 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 4.9% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.6% 14.6 6.7 5.7 1.7 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.8% 25.2% 25.2% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6
16-2 3.6% 22.0% 22.0% 13.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.8
15-3 9.8% 22.5% 22.5% 13.6 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.6
14-4 15.1% 17.3% 17.3% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.8 0.0 12.5
13-5 19.9% 12.7% 12.7% 14.5 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.1 17.4
12-6 18.0% 9.3% 9.3% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 16.3
11-7 14.8% 7.2% 7.2% 15.0 0.1 0.8 0.2 13.8
10-8 9.6% 3.8% 3.8% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.2
9-9 5.3% 3.7% 3.7% 15.7 0.1 0.1 5.1
8-10 2.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 2.0
7-11 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.4 4.3 0.8 88.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.1 1.9 81.6 16.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%